MAT AI HL_Paper 3 Practice [706 marks]

1. [Maximum mark: 24] 24N.3.AHL.TZ0.1

In this question you will use graph theory and transition matrices to solve problems about a manager visiting five
factories.

Audrey is the quality control manager for a manufacturing company that has five factories, A, B, C, D and E .

She is planning a route to visit each factory once, starting and finishing from her home, H.

She determines the distance between each location, in kilometres, as shown in the table.

Audrey wants to find an upper and lower bound for the shortest total distance travelled on her route.

(a) Starting at H, use the nearest-neighbour algorithm to find an upper bound. [3]

Markscheme

evidence of using the nearest neighbour algorithm (M1)

HAED (CBH) OR 40 + 50 + 60 + …

40 + 50 + 60 + 90 + 80 + 85 (A1)

upper bound = 450 A1

[3 marks]

To find a lower bound, Audrey uses the deleted vertex algorithm and deletes vertex H.

(b.i) Use Prim’s algorithm, starting at E, to find the weight of the minimum spanning tree for A, B, C, D and
E. You should clearly state the order in which the edges are selected by the algorithm. [3]

Markscheme

evidence of using Prim’s algorithm to find MST M1

AE, DE, CD, … OR 50 + 60 + 90 + …

AE, DE, CD, BC OR 50 + 60 + 90 + 80 A1

 = 280 A1

Note: Award at most M1A0A1 for using Prim’s from an incorrect starting point.
Award M0A0A1 for obtaining 280 using Kruskal’s or if no working seen.

[3 marks]

(b.ii) Hence, find a lower bound. [2]

Markscheme

evidence of reconnecting H with two edges to MST (M1)

280 + 40 + 70

lower bound = 390 A1

[2 marks]

After her initial visit to all factories, Audrey now decides she will visit one factory each day. She decides which factory to
visit according to the following transition matrix, T .

After visiting factory D, there is a probability of 0. 4 that Audrey will visit factory C next.

(c) Write down the value of

(c.i) p [1]

Markscheme

0. 4 A1

[1 mark]

(c.ii) q [1]

Markscheme
(d)

⎜⎟
0. 3

[1 mark]

(c.iii)

Markscheme

0. 2

A1

[1 mark]

(d.i)

Markscheme

1
⎛ ⎞

⎝ ⎠
0
0

[1 mark]

(d.ii)

Markscheme
r .
A1

Note: FT from 0. 6− their p.

Audrey first visits factory A.

Write down the initial state matrix, S .

A1

recognition to find T or S

0. 216
4

[2 marks]
1
⎛ ⎞

⎝ ⎠
0
0

0
=

(0. 2162)
⎛

⎝
4

0. 1025

0. 1832

0. 2162

0. 2513

0. 2468
⎞

A1
4 (M1)
0

Find the probability that the fifth factory that Audrey visits is C.

(d.iii) Find the probability that the fifth factory that Audrey visits is the same as the second factory she visits.
[1]

[1]

[2]

[5]
(e)
Markscheme

0. 7T
3

⎜⎟
recognition to use T

0
⎛ ⎞

⎝ ⎠
0
0

1
⎛

⎝
=

(0. 1736 + 0. 0753) = 0. 249

[5 marks]

(e.i)
3

recognition of two cases DD or EE

Over a long period of time,

attempt to find steady state matrix

Note: May be seen in part (e)(ii).

0. 104

[2 marks]

(e.ii)

2 (40
(0. 104072 …)

a factory and then back home.

Markscheme

85 160 100
(

70)
(M1)

0. 0749

0. 1274

0. 1526

0. 1736

0. 1715
⎞⎞

⎠⎠

23

221

⎝
)
AND

(0. 2489)
(M1)

0. 3T

find the proportion of Audrey’s visits that are to factory A

Markscheme

⎝
0. 104072 …

0. 190045 …

0. 226244 …

0. 235294 …

0. 244343 …

A1
3

A1

⎠
0
⎛ ⎞

⎝ ⎠
1
⎛

⎝
=

(M1)
⎛

⎝
0. 0276

0. 0558

0. 0636

0. 0777

0. 0753
⎞⎞

⎠⎠
A1A1

find the expected distance Audrey travels in a day, given that she always travels directly from home to

attempt to multiply distances by probabilities from steady state matrix

⎛
0. 104

0. 190

0. 226

0. 235

0. 244
⎞

⎠
(A1)
(M1)
[2]

[3]
 194. 298 …

194 (km) A1

Note: Award (M1)(A1)A0 for 97. 1, from omitting the 2.

[3 marks]

2. [Maximum mark: 31] 24N.3.AHL.TZ0.2

In this question, you will first consider a statistical model for the number of fish caught in a lake and then consider
a differential equation to model the growth of fish in the lake.

Althea enjoys fishing in a lake near her home. She usually fishes for 4 hours each day, and she records the length of each
fish before releasing it back in the lake.

Althea decides to perform a χ goodness of fit test, at the 5 % significance level, to determine whether the number of
2

fish caught can be modelled by a Poisson distribution.

She uses her records from the last 50 days to produce this table.

(a) Calculate the mean number of fish caught per day. [2]

Markscheme

2. 88 (
72

25
) A2

Note: Award M1A0 for an attempt to calculate mean by hand, leading to an incorrect answer e.g values and
frequencies must be seen substituted into formula.

[2 marks]

(b) Hence, calculate the expected number of days, in a 50-day period, that Althea would catch no fish
according to the Poisson model. [3]

Markscheme

using Poisson distribution with their part (a) as m (M1)

P (X = 0)

= 0. 05613476 … (A1)
 (0. 05613476 … × 50)

= 2. 81 (2. 80673 …) A1

[3 marks]

Althea calculates the expected frequencies and records them in this table.

(c) Explain why Althea has combined the columns for 0 and 1. [1]

Markscheme

to ensure the expected frequency is greater than 5 R1

Note: Accept equivalent reasoning, provided it includes “expected” and “5”.

[1 mark]

(d) For this χ goodness of fit test,

2

(d.i) write down a suitable null hypothesis [1]

Markscheme

H0: the data can be modelled by a Poisson distribution A1

Note: Award A0 if they include mean = 2. 88 . However, in this specific case it is possible to award A1 in part (iv).

[1 mark]

(d.ii) write down the number of degrees of freedom [1]

Markscheme

df = 3 A1

[1 mark]

(d.iii) find the p-value [3]

Markscheme
 Evidence of combining columns for observed frequencies (M1)

e.g. 9, 12, 11, 10, 8

p -value = 0. 843 (0. 842640 …) A2

Note: If their df = 4 , then award FT for a p-value of 0. 934587 …

If their df = 2 , then award FT for a p-value of 0. 660837 …

Award M1A1A0 for an answer of 0. 84 (2 sf value) or 0. 842 (truncated value)

[3 marks]

(d.iv) write down the conclusion, justifying your answer. [2]

Markscheme

since p-value > 0. 05 R1

Insufficient evidence to reject H0, (data can be modelled by a Poisson) A1

[2 marks]

Note: Award R1 for correctly comparing their p-value to 0. 05, and A1 for a consistent conclusion.

Do not award final A1 if the null hypothesis is incorrect.

Do not award R0A1.

Condone “accept the null hypothesis” or “do not accept the alternative hypothesis”.

A factory is built on the edge of the lake, and Althea is concerned about the impact of pollution on the length of the
fish. Based on her records, before the factory was built, the length of the fish could be modelled by a normal distribution
with a mean of 50 cm.

After the factory is built, Althea collects a random sample of 15 fish and calculates that x = 48. 6 cm and
sn−1 = 2. 56 cm.

Althea decides to test if there is sufficient evidence of a decrease in the population’s mean length. The hypotheses for
her test are H0: μ = 50 and H1: μ < 50.

(e) Perform the test, at the 5 % significance level, to show that there is evidence of a decrease in the
population’s mean length. [3]

Markscheme
 use of t-test (M1)

p -value = 0. 0263 (0. 0262738 …) A1

since p-value < 0. 05 R1

sufficient evidence to reject H0 /

there is evidence of a decrease in the population mean AG

Note: Award M0A0R0 for use of the z-test (p-value= 0. 0170858 … )

Award a maximum of M1A0R1 for a p-value of 0. 026 (only 2 sf )

[3 marks]

Althea now decides to consider the length of an individual fish in the lake as it grows. She researches the von
Bertalanffy growth model, which states that

dL

dt
= k (L ∞ − L) ,

where:

L is the length of the fish (in centimetres) at time t (in months since birth)
L ∞ = lim L , the length the fish approaches as it grows
t→∞

k is a constant.

(f ) Justifying your answer,

(f.i) state whether k is positive, negative, or could be either [2]

Markscheme

must be positive, A1

since dL

dt
> 0 (and L ∞ − L > 0 ) R1

Note: Do not award A1R0.

Accept equivalent reasoning in words, e.g. the growth is positive.

[2 marks]

(f.ii) state the value of dL

dt
as t → ∞ [2]

Markscheme

0 A1

Since L → L∞ R1
 Note: Accept equivalent reasoning in words, e.g. the fish will stop growing.

[2 marks]

(f.iii) state a parameter in the model that could have been affected by the factory pollution in the lake. [2]

Markscheme

EITHER

L∞ , since the length decreased A2

OR

k , not growing as quickly, finite lifespan A2

Note: Award A1 for “L, since the length decreased”

[2 marks]

At t = 0 , a fish has length L 0 cm .

(g) Sketch a graph of dL

dt
against t. You should label the coordinates of any axes intercepts and the
equation of any asymptotes on your sketch. [3]

Markscheme

Award A1 for a concave-up curve which is positive and decreasing

Award A1 for a dL

dt
-intercept at k (L ∞ − L0 ) (condone omission of t coordinate)

Award A1 for a horizontal asymptote dL

dt
= 0 (accept y = 0 )

[3 marks]

(h) Solve the differential equation dL

dt
= k (L ∞ − L) , using the initial condition. Write your answer in
the form L = f (t).
 [6]

Markscheme

attempt to separate variables (M1)

1
∫ dL = ∫ k dt
L ∞ −L

− ln |L ∞ − L| = kt + c A1A1

Note: Award A1 for correct integration of RHS including “+c” A1 for correct integration of LHS. Accept absence of
absolute value, since L − L > 0.
∞

attempt to remove ln using e from their integrated equation (M1)

−kt−c −kt
L∞ − L = e = Ae

substitute initial conditions into their integrated equation, to find constant of integration (A1)

−c
L∞ − L0 = e (= A)

Note: The previous two marks may be seen in either order.

L = L ∞ − (L ∞ − L 0 )e
−kt
A1

[6 marks]

3. [Maximum mark: 26] 24M.3.AHL.TZ1.1

The purpose of this question is to help a company decide whether or not they should use a new technique to make
a component.

A factory produces components for a tractor. They have designed a new technique to produce one of their components
that they hope will increase its useful lifespan.

They test 120 components made with the new technique and 240 with the technique they currently use. At the end of
250 hours of use, they check the components, and record whether they have no cracks, minor cracks or major cracks.

The data from the trial are given in the table.

In total 141 components had no cracks.
(a.i) Show that the value of a is 53.
[1] 

Markscheme

141 − 88 A1

= 53 AG

[1 mark]

(a.ii) Find the value of b.

[1] 

Markscheme

(120 − 53 − 54 =) 13 A1

[1 mark]

One of the components from the trial is selected at random.

(b) Given that this component had minor cracks find the probability that it was produced by the new
technique. [2] 

Markscheme

Restricting the size of the sample space to 150 (54 + 96) (M1)

= 0. 36 (
54

150
,
9

25
) A1

[2 marks]

(c) A χ test for independence is performed at the 5% significance level to determine whether a
2

component having no cracks, minor cracks or major cracks is independent of the production
technique used.

(c.i) State the null and alternative hypotheses.

[1] 

Markscheme

H0 : The development of cracks and the technique used are independent

H1 : The development of cracks and the technique used are not independent A1

Note: Condone equivalent statements such as ‘not dependent’ but do not accept “uncorrelated” or “not related” in
place of “independent”.
 [1 mark]

(c.ii) Find the p-value.

[2] 

Markscheme

(p − value =) 0. 0170 (0. 0169864 …) (M1)A1

[2 marks]

(c.iii) State the conclusion of the test in context, justifying your answer.
[2] 

Markscheme

0. 0170 < 0. 05 R1

hence there is sufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis that the development of cracks and the technique
used are independent. A1

Note: Do not award R0A1.

[2 marks]

(d) For the components in the trial that were made with the current technique, show that the proportion
which developed cracks is 19

30
.

[1] 

Markscheme

96+56

240
(=
152

240
) A1

19

30
AG

[1 mark]

As an alternative measure, the researchers decide to let p be the probability that a component, made with the new
technique, develops cracks. They then test the following hypotheses

H0 : p =
19

30
'

H1 : p <
19
30
.

In a randomly selected sample of 120 components made with the new technique let X be the number which
developed cracks. The researchers assume that, under the null hypothesis, X~B(120, 19

30
).
(e) State one additional assumption that the researchers are making in choosing this distribution.
[1] 

Markscheme

EITHER

the probability of each component developing cracks is independent of all the other components in the sample.
R1

Note: Do not accept the word “independence” on its own. Appropriate context must be seen.

OR

the development of cracks can be partitioned into two clear groups R1

Note: Do not accept ‘the samples are representative of the population’.

[1 mark]

(f ) Use appropriate data from the trial to perform the test proposed by the researchers, at the 5%
significance level. State the conclusion of the test, justifying your answer. [5] 

Markscheme

67 seen (A1)

EITHER

attempt to find a probability ≤ 67 (condone strict inequality for (M1)) (M1)

(P(X ≤ 67) =) 0. 0549 (0. 0549093 …) A1

Note: Award (A1)(M1)A0 for an unsupported p = 0. 0372 , from use of strict inequality.

0. 0549 > 0. 05 R1

OR

attempt to find the critical region (M1)

critical region is X ≤ 66 A1

66 < 67 or '67 is not in the critical region’ R1

THEN
 EITHER
do not reject the null hypothesis (as there is insufficient evidence that the new technique reduces the number of
cracks). A1

OR
do not accept the alternative hypothesis (as there is insufficient evidence that the new technique reduces the
number of cracks). A1

Note: Do not award R0A1.

Only follow through within part (f ) for final R1A1 if the (M1) has been awarded.
Do not condone “accept the null hypothesis”.

[5 marks]

(g) In comparison with the test in part (c), state one mathematical reason why

(g.i) the test in part (f ) might be preferred

[1] 

Markscheme

the test for a proportion is directional and so considers whether the new treatment reduces the number of
components developing cracks. R1

[1 mark]

(g.ii) the test in part (f ) might not be preferred.

[1] 

Markscheme

EITHER

there could be variation in the value of p chosen for the null hypothesis /
the value of p from the sample might not be a representative of the current technique R1

OR
the test in (f ) does not treat minor and major cracks as different attributes /
the test in (c) does treat minor and major cracks as different attributes R1

OR
the test in (f ) has to make an additional assumption (for example ‘independence’) R1

[1 mark]

For these components, the researchers also consider the mean time taken until cracks develop. It is hoped that using the
new technique will increase this value. A second trial is carried out and the times, in hours, taken for cracks to appear is
recorded.

The mean time taken for cracks to appear ( t̄ ) and the value of s n−1 for each technique are given in the following table.
(h) Perform an appropriate test at the 5% significance level to determine whether the new technique
increases the mean time taken for cracks to appear. [7] 

Markscheme

EITHER
let μ be the mean length of time before cracks appear with the new technique and μ be the mean length with
1 2

the current technique

H : μ = μ
0 1 A1 2

H :μ > μ
1 1 A1 2

Note: Award A1A0 for correct hypotheses in which the two population means are not clearly defined (e.g.
unsupported μ and μ ). 1 2

OR
H0 : the POPULATION mean length of time before cracks appear is the same for both groups A1
H1 :the new technique increases the POPULATION mean length of time before cracks appear. A1

OR
H0 : the mean length of time before cracks appear in ALL components made with the new technique is the same as
for ALL components made with the current technique. A1
H : the mean length of time before cracks appear in ALL components made with the new technique is greater
1

than the mean for ALL components made with the current technique. A1

Note: Award A1A0 if “population” (or equivalent, such as “all”) is omitted from an otherwise correct answer.

THEN

recognition of the need to use of a two-sample test (M1)

p -value = 0. 0162 (0. 0162328 …) A2

Note: If not pooled, answer is 0. 0164368 … award (M1)A2.

0. 0162 < 0. 05 R1

reject the null hypothesis (OR accept the alternative hypothesis) A1

(there is sufficient evidence to that the new technique increases the mean length of time before the cracks appear)
 Note: Do not award R0A1.
Follow through within part (h) for the last R1A1, provided their p-value is between 0 and 1 inclusive.

[7 marks]

The company decides to go ahead with the new technique and publishes the following statement: “statistical tests
show the new technique will significantly increase the time before components crack and need to be replaced”.

(i) Comment on this statement.

[1] 

Markscheme

EITHER

(though statistically significant) the new technique only seems to increase the time before cracks appear by 1 hour
out of 250, so it is not a significant increase (i.e. the effect size is small) R1

OR

the minimum time (not mean time) before cracks appear should be considered given the context / An appropriate
confidence interval should be considered, and not simply the mean. R1

Note: If a not significant p-value was seen in part (h), do not award R1 for an answer of “the result is not significant”
in part (i).

[1 mark]

4. [Maximum mark: 26] 24M.3.AHL.TZ1.1

The purpose of this question is to help a company decide whether or not they should use a new technique to make
a component.

A factory produces components for a tractor. They have designed a new technique to produce one of their components
that they hope will increase its useful lifespan.

They test 120 components made with the new technique and 240 with the technique they currently use. At the end of
250 hours of use, they check the components, and record whether they have no cracks, minor cracks or major cracks.

The data from the trial are given in the table.

In total 141 components had no cracks.

(a.i) Show that the value of a is 53.
[1] 

Markscheme

141 − 88 A1

= 53 AG

[1 mark]

(a.ii) Find the value of b.

[1] 

Markscheme

(120 − 53 − 54 =) 13 A1

[1 mark]

One of the components from the trial is selected at random.

(b) Given that this component had minor cracks find the probability that it was produced by the new
technique. [2] 

Markscheme

Restricting the size of the sample space to 150 (54 + 96) (M1)

= 0. 36 (
54

150
,
9

25
) A1

[2 marks]

(c) A χ test for independence is performed at the 5% significance level to determine whether a
2

component having no cracks, minor cracks or major cracks is independent of the production
technique used.

(c.i) State the null and alternative hypotheses.

[1] 

Markscheme

H0 : The development of cracks and the technique used are independent

H1 : The development of cracks and the technique used are not independent A1

Note: Condone equivalent statements such as ‘not dependent’ but do not accept “uncorrelated” or “not related” in
place of “independent”.
 [1 mark]

(c.ii) Find the p-value.

[2] 

Markscheme

(p − value =) 0. 0170 (0. 0169864 …) (M1)A1

[2 marks]

(c.iii) State the conclusion of the test in context, justifying your answer.
[2] 

Markscheme

0. 0170 < 0. 05 R1

hence there is sufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis that the development of cracks and the technique
used are independent. A1

Note: Do not award R0A1.

[2 marks]

(d) For the components in the trial that were made with the current technique, show that the proportion
which developed cracks is 19

30
.

[1] 

Markscheme

96+56

240
(=
152

240
) A1

19

30
AG

[1 mark]

As an alternative measure, the researchers decide to let p be the probability that a component, made with the new
technique, develops cracks. They then test the following hypotheses

H0 : p =
19

30
'

H1 : p <
19
30
.

In a randomly selected sample of 120 components made with the new technique let X be the number which
developed cracks. The researchers assume that, under the null hypothesis, X~B(120, 19

30
).
(e) State one additional assumption that the researchers are making in choosing this distribution.
[1] 

Markscheme

EITHER

the probability of each component developing cracks is independent of all the other components in the sample.
R1

Note: Do not accept the word “independence” on its own. Appropriate context must be seen.

OR

the development of cracks can be partitioned into two clear groups R1

Note: Do not accept ‘the samples are representative of the population’.

[1 mark]

(f ) Use appropriate data from the trial to perform the test proposed by the researchers, at the 5%
significance level. State the conclusion of the test, justifying your answer. [5] 

Markscheme

67 seen (A1)

EITHER

attempt to find a probability ≤ 67 (condone strict inequality for (M1)) (M1)

(P(X ≤ 67) =) 0. 0549 (0. 0549093 …) A1

Note: Award (A1)(M1)A0 for an unsupported p = 0. 0372 , from use of strict inequality.

0. 0549 > 0. 05 R1

OR

attempt to find the critical region (M1)

critical region is X ≤ 66 A1

66 < 67 or '67 is not in the critical region’ R1

THEN
 EITHER
do not reject the null hypothesis (as there is insufficient evidence that the new technique reduces the number of
cracks). A1

OR
do not accept the alternative hypothesis (as there is insufficient evidence that the new technique reduces the
number of cracks). A1

Note: Do not award R0A1.

Only follow through within part (f ) for final R1A1 if the (M1) has been awarded.
Do not condone “accept the null hypothesis”.

[5 marks]

(g) In comparison with the test in part (c), state one mathematical reason why

(g.i) the test in part (f ) might be preferred

[1] 

Markscheme

the test for a proportion is directional and so considers whether the new treatment reduces the number of
components developing cracks. R1

[1 mark]

(g.ii) the test in part (f ) might not be preferred.

[1] 

Markscheme

EITHER

there could be variation in the value of p chosen for the null hypothesis /
the value of p from the sample might not be a representative of the current technique R1

OR
the test in (f ) does not treat minor and major cracks as different attributes /
the test in (c) does treat minor and major cracks as different attributes R1

OR
the test in (f ) has to make an additional assumption (for example ‘independence’) R1

[1 mark]

For these components, the researchers also consider the mean time taken until cracks develop. It is hoped that using the
new technique will increase this value. A second trial is carried out and the times, in hours, taken for cracks to appear is
recorded.

The mean time taken for cracks to appear ( t̄ ) and the value of s n−1 for each technique are given in the following table.
(h) Perform an appropriate test at the 5% significance level to determine whether the new technique
increases the mean time taken for cracks to appear. [7] 

Markscheme

EITHER
let μ be the mean length of time before cracks appear with the new technique and μ be the mean length with
1 2

the current technique

H : μ = μ
0 1 A1 2

H :μ > μ
1 1 A1 2

Note: Award A1A0 for correct hypotheses in which the two population means are not clearly defined (e.g.
unsupported μ and μ ). 1 2

OR
H0 : the POPULATION mean length of time before cracks appear is the same for both groups A1
H1 :the new technique increases the POPULATION mean length of time before cracks appear. A1

OR
H0 : the mean length of time before cracks appear in ALL components made with the new technique is the same as
for ALL components made with the current technique. A1
H : the mean length of time before cracks appear in ALL components made with the new technique is greater
1

than the mean for ALL components made with the current technique. A1

Note: Award A1A0 if “population” (or equivalent, such as “all”) is omitted from an otherwise correct answer.

THEN

recognition of the need to use of a two-sample test (M1)

p -value = 0. 0162 (0. 0162328 …) A2

Note: If not pooled, answer is 0. 0164368 … award (M1)A2.

0. 0162 < 0. 05 R1

reject the null hypothesis (OR accept the alternative hypothesis) A1

(there is sufficient evidence to that the new technique increases the mean length of time before the cracks appear)
 Note: Do not award R0A1.
Follow through within part (h) for the last R1A1, provided their p-value is between 0 and 1 inclusive.

[7 marks]

The company decides to go ahead with the new technique and publishes the following statement: “statistical tests
show the new technique will significantly increase the time before components crack and need to be replaced”.

(i) Comment on this statement.

[1] 

Markscheme

EITHER

(though statistically significant) the new technique only seems to increase the time before cracks appear by 1 hour
out of 250, so it is not a significant increase (i.e. the effect size is small) R1

OR

the minimum time (not mean time) before cracks appear should be considered given the context / An appropriate
confidence interval should be considered, and not simply the mean. R1

Note: If a not significant p-value was seen in part (h), do not award R1 for an answer of “the result is not significant”
in part (i).

[1 mark]

5. [Maximum mark: 29] 24M.3.AHL.TZ1.2

A sports stadium has a T-shirt cannon which is used to launch T-shirts into the crowd. The purpose of this question
is to determine whether a person sitting in a particular seat will ever receive a T-shirt.

A T-shirt cannon is placed on the horizontal ground of a stadium playing area. A coordinate system is created such that
the origin, O, is the point on the ground from where the T-shirts are launched. In this coordinate system, x and y
represent the horizontal and vertical displacement from O, and are measured in metres.

Seat A is the nearest seat to the T-shirt cannon. The coordinates of the front of the foot space for seat A are (30,
1 1 2. 1) .
Each seat behind seat A is 1. 0 m further from O horizontally and 0. 5 m higher than the seat in the row below it, as
1

shown on the diagram.

Seat A is in row 1. Let seat A be the seat directly behind A in row n.

1 n 1

(a.i) Write down the coordinates of the front of the foot space of seat A . 5 [2]

Markscheme

(34, 4. 1) A1A1

[2 marks]

(a.ii) Find, in terms of n, the coordinates for the front of the foot space of seat A .
n [3]

Markscheme

recognizing the sequence is arithmetic, with a common difference of 0. 5 and 1. 0 (M1)

 (30 + (n − 1), 2. 1 + (n − 1) 0. 5) A1A1

(= (29 + n, 1. 6 + 0. 5n))

[3 marks]

While in motion, the T-shirt can be treated as a projectile.

Let t be the time, in seconds, after a T-shirt is launched.

At any time t > 0 , the acceleration of the T-shirt, in m s −2

, is given by the vector

ẍ 0
( ) = ( ) .
ÿ −9. 8

29. 4 cos θ
The initial velocity, in m s −1
, of the T-shirt is given as ( ) , where θ is the angle to the ground at which the T-
29. 4 sin θ

shirt is launched and 0 º < θ ≤ 90

º
.

(b.i) ẋ
Find an expression for the velocity, ( ) , at time t.
ẏ [3]

Markscheme

evidence of integration of the acceleration vector OR use of v = u + at (M1)

ẋ c1
( ) = ( )
ẏ −9. 8t + c 2

ẋ 29. 4 cos θ
(( ) =)( ) A1A1
ẏ 29. 4 sin θ − 9. 8t

Note: The first A1 is for ẋ and the second is for ẏ.

[3 marks]

(b.ii) Hence show that when the T-shirt is launched vertically, the time for it to reach its maximum height is 3
seconds. [3]

Markscheme

º
θ = 90 (A1)

29. 4 − 9. 8t = 0 M1A1

Note: Award M1 for setting their ẏ to zero (may still include θ), A1 for correct equation, leading to given result.
If they substitute t = 3 award at most (A1)M0A0.
 maximum point when t =
29.4

9.8

= 3 (seconds) AG

[3 marks]

The displacement of the T-shirt, t seconds after it is launched, is given by the vector equation

x 29. 4 (cos θ) t
( ) = ( )
2
y 29. 4 (sin θ) t − 4. 9t

(c) Using the given answer to part (b)(ii) or otherwise, find the maximum height reached by a T-shirt when
it is launched vertically. [2]

Markscheme

correct substitution OR use of correct graph (M1)

maximum height is 29. 4 × 3 − 4. 9 × 3 2

= 44. 1 (m) A1

[2 marks]

(d.i) If there was no seating, and the T-shirt was launched at an angle θ, show that the value of x when it
would hit the ground is given by the expression

x = 176. 4 sin θ cos θ [3]

Markscheme

29. 4 sin θt − 4. 9t
2
= 0 M1
t = 6 sin θ (or t = 0 ) A1

x = 29. 4 cos θ × 6 sin θ A1

= 176. 4 cos θ sin θ AG

[3 marks]

(d.ii) Hence find the maximum possible value for x if there was no seating to block the path of the T-shirt. [2]

Markscheme

valid method to find maximum (e.g. sketch graph, find derivative) (M1)

maximum value of x is 88. 2 (m) A1

π
Note: Award (M1)A0 for an unsupported answer of “45” or 4
(0. 785398 …) .
 [2 marks]

In order to calculate the seats in the stadium which can be reached by a T-shirt it is required to find the equation of the
curve that forms the boundary of all the points that can be reached. This boundary is represented by the dashed curve
in the following diagram, while the solid curves represent some of the possible trajectories for the T-shirts.

It is given that the boundary curve is the parabola y = ax

2
+ bx + c, with its vertex V on the y-axis.

(e) Using your answers to parts (c) and (d)(ii), or otherwise, find

(e.i) the value of c. [1]

Markscheme

(c =) 44. 1 A1

Note: follow through from 2c

[1 mark]

(e.ii) the value of b. [2]

Markscheme

EITHER

(M1)
dy
= 0 ⇒ 2a × 0 + b = 0
dx

OR

vertex is at x = −
b

2a
= 0 (M1)

THEN
 ⇒ b = 0 A1

[2 marks]

(e.iii) the value of a. [3]

Markscheme

point (88. 2, 0) used (A1)

0 = a × 88. 2
2
+ 44. 1 (M1)

44.1
⇒ a = − 2
88.2

= −
5

882
= −0. 0056689 … A1

[3 marks]

Note: The method for finding the parameters might appear in a different part, for example use of (88. 2, 0) might
appear in part (ii), or the parts might not be clearly numbered. Accept any correct working wherever it is seen, and
ascribe the marks to the correct part.

A spectator is sitting in seat A . 40

(f ) Show that it is not possible for the spectator to ever get a T-shirt. [5]

Markscheme

use of their arithmetic sequence from (a)(ii) with n = 40 (M1)

coordinates of seat A 40 = (69, 21. 6) (A1)

EITHER

substitution of their 69 into their y = −

5

882
x
2
+ 44. 1 from part (e) (M1)

5 2
y = − × 69 + 44. 1
882

= 17. 1 (17. 1102 …) A1

21. 6 > 17. 1 R1

OR

substitution of their y = 21. 6 into their y = −

5

882
x
2
+ 44. 1 from part (e) (M1)

5 2
21. 6 = − x + 44. 1
882

x = 63 A1

69 > 63 R1
 Note: Accept equivalent justification in words, provided both values are seen.
Award R1 for correct reasoning only if M1 has been awarded and their seat coordinates lie outside their equation
for the curve.

so the T-shirt cannot reach seat A 40 AG

[5 marks]

6. [Maximum mark: 24] 24M.3.AHL.TZ2.1

The following question examines the changes in darts players’ scores using two statistical tests.

In the sport of darts, players take turns throwing darts at a board in order to score points.

[Source: Panimoni, 2022. Volume Target icon in flat style on color background. Darts game. Arrow in the center aim. Vector design element for you business projects. [image online] Available at:
https://www.gettyimages.co.uk/detail/illustration/volume-target-icon-in-flat-style-on-color-royalty-free-illustration/1044319572 [Accessed 21 February
2022]. Source adapted.]

A player’s “three dart average” refers to the mean score achieved when throwing three darts.

Valia aimed to find out whether amateur darts players in her local area improved over a 12-month period. An increase in
their “three dart average” would indicate an improvement.

She selected a random sample of eight darts players and recorded their mean “three dart average” from Year 1.

She then recorded their mean “three dart average” from Year 2.

Valia’s results were as follows:

Valia calculated the median, quartiles and inter-quartile range for each year. The results are shown in Table 2.

(a) Determine the values of a, b and c.

[3] 

Markscheme

a = 70. 35 OR 70. 4 A1

b = 73. 45 OR 73. 5 A1

c = 5. 45 A1

Note: Follow through within the question from their (labelled) value of b, when finding c (applies both if b is
incorrect or correct to a different level of accuracy).

[3 marks]

(b) By comparing the results for both years summarized in Table 2, state one conclusion, in context, that
Valia might be justified in making. [1] 

Markscheme

EITHER
 median/average dart score has increased R1

OR

Darts players are showing (some) improvement R1

OR

Spread in average dart score has decreased R1

OR

Players have become more similar R1

Note: Answers without context “e.g. the median is higher in year 2” score R0.

[1 mark]

Valia then decided to analyse the data from Table 1 using a one-tailed paired t-test at the 10 % significance level to
determine whether the players’ averages have increased.

(c) State an assumption about the differences in means that is necessary in order for the test to be valid.
[1] 

Markscheme

EITHER

(difference in averages is approximately) normally distributed R1

OR

the individuals’ changes in mean are independent R1

Note: Do not award R1 if there is also a reference to variances being pooled / equal variances or to independence
between the two years or anything else which shows a misunderstanding of the test used.

[1 mark]

(d.i) State the null and alternative hypotheses for the test.
[2] 

Markscheme

let μ represent the mean of the differences from table 1

d

(e.g. column 2-column 1)

H0 : μd = 0 A1
 H1 : μd > 0 A1

Note: Condone an alternative hypothesis of H 1 : μd < 0 , provided it is consistent with their subsequent work
(e.g. their “differences” are year 1 – year 2).

Accept hypotheses communicated in words, e.g. “H :there has been no change in the mean of the players’
0

averages”. The word “mean” must be seen in any word-based response.

Allow μ 1 = μ2 and μ 2 > μ1 .

Allow a compound null hypothesis (i.e. μ d ≤ 0 or equivalent).

Condone μ = 0 or μ 0 = 0 for null hypothesis and equivalent for alternative hypothesis.

[2 marks]

(d.ii) Find the p-value.

[2] 

Markscheme

finding/entering differences in ‘means’ across both years (M1)

p -value = 0. 134 (0. 133797 …) A1

[2 marks]

(d.iii) State the conclusion of the test in context, justifying your answer.
[2] 

Markscheme

0. 134 > 0. 1 , R1

(so do not reject H ) 0

there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the darts players’ averages have increased A1

Note: Do not award R0A1. Award A0 if the conclusion is not in context or if the null hypothesis was logically
incorrect (i.e. an error of confusing null and alternative rather than just an error in communication).

[2 marks]

(e) State one way Valia could have reduced the chance of her making

(e.i) a Type I error.

[2] 

Markscheme
 decrease the significance level A2

Note: Award A1 if type I error has been defined (e.g. As rejecting H when H is true) but correct answer not seen.
0 0

Increased sample size is incorrect.

If more than one answer is given, mark only the first one.

[2 marks]

(e.ii) a Type II error.

[2] 

Markscheme

increase the sample size / increase the significance level A2

Note: Condone “Collect more data”.

If more than one answer is given, mark only the first one.

[2 marks]

Valia was not sure the assumption made in part (c) was correct and hence thought the results obtained from her paired t
-test may not be valid.

Following further research, Valia decided to use the Wilcoxon signed-rank test, which does not require the assumption
she made in part (c).

For this test, the magnitudes of the differences between the Year 2 and Year 1 means are ranked from 1 to 8, with the
ranks of the positive differences (P ) and the ranks of the negative differences (N ) separated in columns.

This is partially shown in the following table, which Valia constructs to perform the test.
(f ) Determine the values of

(f.i) A, B, C and D.
[3] 

Markscheme

D = 4 A1

B = 5 A1

A = 6, C = 7 A1

[3 marks]
(f.ii) ΣN .
[1] 

Markscheme

(ΣN ) = 8 A1

[1 mark]

For this test:

the Wilcoxon signed-rank test statistic is T = the smaller value from a choice of ΣP or ΣN .
the null hypothesis is that the population’s median for “three dart average” is the same in both years.

Valia chooses to carry out the test at the 5 % level of significance. From statistical tables, she determines that the critical
region is T ≤ 5.

(g.i) State the alternative hypothesis H for this test.

1
[1] 

Markscheme

(H 1 :) the (population’s) median (three dart average) increased (from year 1 to year 2). A1

[1 mark]

(g.ii) Write down the value of the test statistic, T .

[1] 

Markscheme

(T =) 8 A1

[1 mark]
 (g.iii) Determine the conclusion of the test in context.
[2] 

Markscheme

(T =) 8 > 5 R1

Note: Condone 8 ≥ 5 .

(so do not reject H (allow ‘accept H ’) )

0 0

there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the median of the players’ averages have increased A1

Note: Do not award R0A1. Award A0 if the conclusion is not in context.

Nearly anything better than “Do not reject H ” will be accepted as being in context.
0

[2 marks]

(h) Suggest briefly how Valia could assess the reliability of her results for either test.
[1] 

Markscheme

EITHER

she could repeat the test(s) the following year R1

OR

she could repeat the test(s) with a different sample (for the same years) R1

OR

apply test-retest R1

Note: Increasing sample size is NOT a test for reliability. Any reference to this would score R0.

[1 mark]

7. [Maximum mark: 24] 24M.3.AHL.TZ2.1

The following question examines the changes in darts players’ scores using two statistical tests.

In the sport of darts, players take turns throwing darts at a board in order to score points.
[Source: Panimoni, 2022. Volume Target icon in flat style on color background. Darts game. Arrow in the center aim. Vector design element for you business projects. [image online] Available at:
https://www.gettyimages.co.uk/detail/illustration/volume-target-icon-in-flat-style-on-color-royalty-free-illustration/1044319572 [Accessed 21 February
2022]. Source adapted.]

A player’s “three dart average” refers to the mean score achieved when throwing three darts.

Valia aimed to find out whether amateur darts players in her local area improved over a 12-month period. An increase in
their “three dart average” would indicate an improvement.

She selected a random sample of eight darts players and recorded their mean “three dart average” from Year 1.

She then recorded their mean “three dart average” from Year 2.

Valia’s results were as follows:

Valia calculated the median, quartiles and inter-quartile range for each year. The results are shown in Table 2.
(a) Determine the values of a, b and c.
[3] 

Markscheme

a = 70. 35 OR 70. 4 A1

b = 73. 45 OR 73. 5 A1

c = 5. 45 A1

Note: Follow through within the question from their (labelled) value of b, when finding c (applies both if b is
incorrect or correct to a different level of accuracy).

[3 marks]

(b) By comparing the results for both years summarized in Table 2, state one conclusion, in context, that
Valia might be justified in making. [1] 

Markscheme

EITHER

median/average dart score has increased R1

OR

Darts players are showing (some) improvement R1

OR

Spread in average dart score has decreased R1

OR

Players have become more similar R1

Note: Answers without context “e.g. the median is higher in year 2” score R0.

[1 mark]
Valia then decided to analyse the data from Table 1 using a one-tailed paired t-test at the 10 % significance level to
determine whether the players’ averages have increased.

(c) State an assumption about the differences in means that is necessary in order for the test to be valid.
[1] 

Markscheme

EITHER

(difference in averages is approximately) normally distributed R1

OR

the individuals’ changes in mean are independent R1

Note: Do not award R1 if there is also a reference to variances being pooled / equal variances or to independence
between the two years or anything else which shows a misunderstanding of the test used.

[1 mark]

(d.i) State the null and alternative hypotheses for the test.
[2] 

Markscheme

let μ represent the mean of the differences from table 1

d

(e.g. column 2-column 1)

H0 : μd = 0 A1

H1 : μd > 0 A1

Note: Condone an alternative hypothesis of H 1 : μd < 0 , provided it is consistent with their subsequent work
(e.g. their “differences” are year 1 – year 2).

Accept hypotheses communicated in words, e.g. “H :there has been no change in the mean of the players’
0

averages”. The word “mean” must be seen in any word-based response.

Allow μ 1 = μ2 and μ 2 > μ1 .

Allow a compound null hypothesis (i.e. μ d ≤ 0 or equivalent).

Condone μ = 0 or μ 0 = 0 for null hypothesis and equivalent for alternative hypothesis.

[2 marks]

(d.ii) Find the p-value.

[2] 
 Markscheme

finding/entering differences in ‘means’ across both years (M1)

p -value = 0. 134 (0. 133797 …) A1

[2 marks]

(d.iii) State the conclusion of the test in context, justifying your answer.
[2] 

Markscheme

0. 134 > 0. 1 , R1

(so do not reject H ) 0

there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the darts players’ averages have increased A1

Note: Do not award R0A1. Award A0 if the conclusion is not in context or if the null hypothesis was logically
incorrect (i.e. an error of confusing null and alternative rather than just an error in communication).

[2 marks]

(e) State one way Valia could have reduced the chance of her making

(e.i) a Type I error.

[2] 

Markscheme

decrease the significance level A2

Note: Award A1 if type I error has been defined (e.g. As rejecting H when H is true) but correct answer not seen.
0 0

Increased sample size is incorrect.

If more than one answer is given, mark only the first one.

[2 marks]

(e.ii) a Type II error.

[2] 

Markscheme

increase the sample size / increase the significance level A2

 Note: Condone “Collect more data”.

If more than one answer is given, mark only the first one.

[2 marks]

Valia was not sure the assumption made in part (c) was correct and hence thought the results obtained from her paired t
-test may not be valid.

Following further research, Valia decided to use the Wilcoxon signed-rank test, which does not require the assumption
she made in part (c).

For this test, the magnitudes of the differences between the Year 2 and Year 1 means are ranked from 1 to 8, with the
ranks of the positive differences (P ) and the ranks of the negative differences (N ) separated in columns.

This is partially shown in the following table, which Valia constructs to perform the test.

(f ) Determine the values of

(f.i) A, B, C and D.
[3] 

Markscheme
 D = 4 A1

B = 5 A1

A = 6, C = 7

A1

[3 marks]

(f.ii) ΣN .
[1] 

Markscheme

(ΣN ) = 8 A1

[1 mark]

For this test:

the Wilcoxon signed-rank test statistic is T = the smaller value from a choice of ΣP or ΣN .
the null hypothesis is that the population’s median for “three dart average” is the same in both years.

Valia chooses to carry out the test at the 5 % level of significance. From statistical tables, she determines that the critical
region is T ≤ 5.
(g.i) State the alternative hypothesis H for this test.
1
[1] 

Markscheme

(H 1 :) the (population’s) median (three dart average) increased (from year 1 to year 2). A1

[1 mark]

(g.ii) Write down the value of the test statistic, T .

[1] 

Markscheme

(T =) 8 A1

[1 mark]

(g.iii) Determine the conclusion of the test in context.

[2] 

Markscheme

(T =) 8 > 5 R1

Note: Condone 8 ≥ 5 .

(so do not reject H (allow ‘accept H ’) )

0 0

there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the median of the players’ averages have increased A1

Note: Do not award R0A1. Award A0 if the conclusion is not in context.

Nearly anything better than “Do not reject H ” will be accepted as being in context.
0

[2 marks]

(h) Suggest briefly how Valia could assess the reliability of her results for either test.
[1] 

Markscheme

EITHER

she could repeat the test(s) the following year R1

OR
 she could repeat the test(s) with a different sample (for the same years) R1

OR

apply test-retest R1

Note: Increasing sample size is NOT a test for reliability. Any reference to this would score R0.

[1 mark]

8. [Maximum mark: 31] 24M.3.AHL.TZ2.2

The following question explores a possible method of drawing phase portraits for non‑linear coupled systems,
taking a predator-prey model as a particular example.

Gander Green wildlife park contains a population of Czech geese (x, measured in hundreds), and a population of gray
foxes (y, measured in hundreds).

Research indicates that the population growth of both geese and foxes can be modelled by the following differential
equations, in which t is measured in years.

dx xy
= 2x −
for x,
dt 2
} y ≥ 0
dy
= −3y + xy
dt

(a) At a specific time, there are 500 geese and 500 foxes, represented here by the coordinate pair (5, .
5)

At this time, determine the rate of change of

(a.i) geese. [2]

Markscheme

attempt to substitute x = 5, y = 5 into either of the given equations (M1)

Note: Award M1 for substituting x = 500, y = 500 .

dx (5)(5)
= 2(5) −
dt 2

−2. 5 (hundred geese per year) / −250 (geese per year) A1

[2 marks]

(a.ii) foxes. [1]

Markscheme
 dy
= −3(5) + (5)(5)
dt

10 (hundred foxes per year) / 1000 (foxes per year) A1

[1 mark]

There are two equilibrium points for the populations: A(0, 0) and B(p, .
q)

(b.i) Explain why A is an equilibrium point. [1]

Markscheme

EITHER

both and at A R1
dx dy
= 0 = 0
dt dt

OR

if x = 0 and y = 0 then there are no foxes or geese, so their populations cannot change R1

Note: Award R0 for just stating “there are no foxes or geese”.

[1 mark]

(b.ii) Find the value of p and the value of q. [3]

Markscheme

attempt to put equal to zero and solve (M1)

dx dy
(or )
dt dt

dx y dy
= 0 ⇒ x(2 − ) = 0, = 0 ⇒ y(−3 + x) = 0
dt 2 dt

p = 3 (accept x = 3 ) A1

q = 4 (accept y = 4 ) A1

[3 marks]

At points close to A(0, 0) , we can ignore the xy terms, so that the system can be approximated by:

dx
= 2x
for x, .
dt
} y ≥ 0
dy
= −3y
dt

(c) By solving these two differential equations,

(c.i) find an expression for x in terms of t. [4]

 Markscheme

attempt to solve by separation of variables (M1)

dx
∫ = ∫ 2 d t
x

ln x = 2t + c (A1)(A1)

Note: Award (A1) for each side correct.

Award (A1)(A0) if both sides are integrated correctly but +c is not seen.

Also accept 0. 5 ln x = t + c OR .
0. 5 ln 2x = t + c

x = Ae
2t
(accept x = e
2t+c A
) A1

[4 marks]

(c.ii) find an expression for y in terms of t. [1]

Markscheme

y = Be
−3t
(accept y = e
−3t+c B
) A1

Note: Accept alternative (distinct) labels for their A and B.

[1 mark]

(d.i) Using your answers from part (c), show that phase portrait trajectories close to A may be given by the
equation x y = k, where k is a positive constant.
3 2
[3]

Markscheme

METHOD 1

attempt to find x and y in terms of t 3 2

(e.g. any attempt to substitute their solutions to part (c)) M1

3 3 6t 2 2 −6t
x = A e , y = B e

x y
3 2
= A e
3 6t
× B e
2 −6t
A1

= A B
3 2
A1

= k AG
 Note: There will probably be lots of students who assume what is to be proved by introducing a k earlier on. Do
not penalize this.

METHOD 2

attempting to isolate t M1

e
2t
=
A
x
and e 3t
=
B

3 2

e
6t
=
A
x
3
OR e 6t
=
B

y
2
A1

3 2
x

A
3 =
B

y
2
A1

x y
3 2
= k AG

[3 marks]

(d.ii) Hence sketch, on a phase portrait, one possible trajectory for small values of x and y. [3]

Markscheme

y = √
x3
k
(A1)

A1A1

Note: Award A1 for correct shape (i.e. decreasing, convex and not touching axes), A1 for correct direction indicated.

Ignore any trajectories not in the first quadrant.

The first A1 can only be implied by a correct graph.

[3 marks]

Now consider points (x, y) close to B on the phase plane. These coordinates can be rewritten as x = p + X and
y = q + Y , where p and q are the values from part (b)(ii).
(e) By substituting into the original model, show that, for small values of X and Y :
.

X ≈ −
3Y

2
. [3]

Markscheme

attempt to substitute x OR into M1

dx xy
= 3 + X, y = 4 + Y x = p + X, y = q + Y = 2x −
dt 2

1
X = 2 (3 + X) − (3 + X)(4 + Y )
2

1
= 6 + 2X − (12 + 4X + 3Y + XY )
2

3 XY
= 6 + 2X − 6 − 2X − Y −
2 2

= −
3Y

2
−
XY

2
A1

The term in XY can be ignored. R1

= −
3Y

2
+ ⋯ ≈ −
3Y

2
AG

Note: Follow through can be awarded for the M1 and R1 but not the A1.

[3 marks]

Similarly, it can be shown that Y ≈ 4X .

.
(f ) X X
Given that ( . ) = M( ) , where M is a square matrix, write down M .
Y
Y [1]

Markscheme

3
0 −
M = (
2
) A1
4 0

[1 mark]

(g) By finding the eigenvalues of M , describe the path of the trajectories close to point B. [4]

Markscheme

3
−λ −
setting 2
= 0 (M1)
4 −λ

Note: Setting their determinant to zero can be implied by any correct root seen.

λ
2
+ 6 = 0 (A1)
 λ = ±i√ 6 OR ±2. 45i (±2. 44948 … i) OR noting 2 purely imaginary eigenvalues A1

⇒ ellipse (or circle) R1

Note: Accept “closed loops” or “oval” as descriptions of the trajectories.

Allow follow through for the final R1 from their eigenvalues as long as they are either both real or complex
conjugates. If there are two real eigenvalues the description should be a “node” and if there are two complex
eigenvalues the description should be a “focus” or a “spiral”.

[4 marks]

(h) Hence sketch a complete set of trajectories in the phase plane for the original model, clearly indicating
both equilibrium points. [3]

Markscheme

A1A1A1

Note: Award A1: At least one ellipse, oval or closed loop seen. Allow parts of ellipses shown (as in the diagram) as
long as at least one complete loop observed.

Award A1: Arrows showing correct direction seen on at least one loop. Must be anti-clockwise on a closed loop.

Award A1: Ellipses remaining entirely in the 1st quadrant AND centre B marked in some way (either directly or via
coordinates consistent with their B).

Do not follow through into part 2(h) from part 2(g).

[3 marks]
 (i) In this wildlife park, at a specific time, there are 500 Czech geese and 500 gray foxes.

Based on the values found in part (a), the park’s wildlife keeper is worried and assumes that the geese
will quickly die out. Suggest whether this assumption is supported by the model. Justify your answer. [2]

Markscheme

The park-keeper is incorrect A1

The phase portrait shows that the trajectory (starting at (5, 5) ) is a closed loop (around the equilibrium point)
(despite having a negative initial dx/dt in comparison with large positive ) R1
dy

dt

Note: Do not award A1R0.

[2 marks]

9. [Maximum mark: 28] 23N.3.AHL.TZ0.1

This question uses differential equations to model the maximum velocity of a skydiver in free fall.

In 2012, Felix Baumgartner jumped from a height of 40 000 m. He was attempting to travel at the speed of sound,
330 m s , whilst free-falling to the Earth.
−1

Before making his attempt, Felix used mathematical models to check how realistic his attempt would be. The simplest
model he used suggests that

dv
= g
dt

where v m s is Felix’s velocity and g m s is the acceleration due to gravity. The time since he began to free-fall is t
−1 −2

seconds and the displacement from his initial position is s metres.

Throughout this question, the direction towards the centre of the Earth is taken to be positive and v is a positive
quantity.

When s = 0 , it is given that Felix jumps with an initial velocity v = 10 .

(a.i) Use the chain rule to show that dv

dt
= v
dv

ds
. [1]

Markscheme

dv

dt
=
ds

dt
×
dv

ds
A1

ds
(v = )
dt

dv

dt
= v
dv

ds
AG

[1 mark]

(a.ii) Assuming that g is a constant, solve the differential equation v dv

ds
= g to find v as a function of s. [4]
 Markscheme

dv
v = g
ds

attempt to separate variables M1

∫ v d v = ∫ g d s

2
v

2
= gs(+c) A1

using initial conditions (can be done at any point) M1

50 = c

so v = √ 2gs + 100 A1

Note: Marks are intentionally unimplied to ensure on-syllabus techniques are used.

[4 marks]

(a.iii) Using g = 9. 8, determine whether the model predicts that Felix will succeed in travelling at the speed
of sound at some point before s = 40 000. Justify your answer. [3]

Markscheme

EITHER

attempt to use their part (a)(ii) to find a value of s when v = 330 (M1)

330 = √ 2gs + 100

therefore s = 5551. 02 … A1

(5551. 02 < 40000)

so (the model does predict) he will reach the speed of sound A1

OR

attempt to use their part (a)(ii) to find a value of v when s = 40000 (M1)

v = √ 2g(40000) + 100

= 885 (885. 49 …) A1

(885 > 330)

so (the model does predict) he will reach the speed of sound (before s = 40000 ) A1

Note: For the OR method, accept any large s that leads to v = 330 .
 FT from √2gs gives 885 (885. 437 …) for v and 5560 (5556. 12 …) for s

FT from their v or their s for the final A1, provided M1 is awarded

[3 marks]

(b) To test the model

dv
dt
,
= g

Felix conducted a trial jump from a lower height, and data for v against t was found.

(b.i) If the model is correct, describe the shape of the graph of v against t. [2]

Markscheme

v = gt + (c) OR gradient is a constant (M1)

so the graph should be a straight line A1

[2 marks]

Felix’s data are plotted on the following graph.

(b.ii) Use the plot to comment on the validity of the model in part (a). [1]

Markscheme

the graph is not a straight line / only (approx.) straight for small t, so the model does not appear to be valid
R1

Note: Award R1 for recognising that the graph is non-linear AND stating that the model does not appear to be
valid

[1 mark]
(c)

(c.i)

Markscheme

so
dv

ds

v = √
2k
An improved model considers air resistance, using

dv

dt

By using

= g − kv
= g − kv

that g − kv

separating variables

g−kv 2

1
dv

dt

d v = ∫ d s
2

ln (g − kv ) = s(+c)

rearranging to make v the subject

v also on the RHS.

g − kv

v = √

[5 marks]

Markscheme
2

g−Ae
= Ae

g−(g−100k)e

k
−2ks

−2ks
2

2
2

where k is a positive constant. You are reminded that initially s

= v

> 0
dv

ds

applying initial conditions (here or elsewhere)

100 =

A = g − 100k
g−A

that Felix found that k

9. 672 = 9. 8 − 1600k

k =
9.8−9.672

1600
−2ks
(M1)

OR

A1
−
1

2k

Felix uses the graph of v against t shown in part (b) to estimate the value of k.

(c.ii) The gradient is estimated to be 9. 672 when v

= 8 × 10

A1A1
−5
.
ln

(M1)

Note: Award A1 for correct left-hand side and A1 for correct right-hand side.
∣
g − kv

= 40
2
= s(+c)
= 0 and v

(A1)

Note: Award (M1) for making v the subject of their equation and not just an attempt, or an erroneous equation with

(M1)
= 10 .

, solve the differential equation to find v in terms of s, g and k. You may assume

. Taking g to be 9. 8, use this information to show

[5]

[2]
 k = 8 × 10
−5
AG

Note: Award A1A0 for k = 8 × 10

−5
substituted into the right-hand side of the expression, leading to 9. 672.

[2 marks]

(c.iii) Hence, find the value of v predicted by this model, as s tends to infinity. [2]

Markscheme

s → ∞, e
−2ks
→ 0 OR dv

dt
= 0 OR graph/table (M1)

A1
g −1
(v max = √ =) 350 (ms )
k

[2 marks]

(c.iv) Find the upper bound for the velocity according to this model, given that 0 < s ≤ 40 000 . Give your
answer to four significant figures. [2]

Markscheme

upper limit occurs when s = 40000 (M1)

Note: The M1 can be implied by 40000 substituted into their part (c)(i).

349. 7 (ms
−1
) A1

Note: Answer must be to 4 sf.

[2 marks]

The assumption that the value of g is constant is not correct. It can be shown that
14

g =
3.98×10
6 2
.
(6.41×10 −s)

Hence, the new model is given by

14

v
dv

ds
=
3.98×10
6 2
− (8 × 10
−5
)v
2
.
(6.41×10 −s)

When s = 0 , it is known that v = 10 .

(d) Use Euler’s method with a step length of 4000 to estimate the value of v when s = 40 000 . [4]

Markscheme

s n+1 = s n + 4000 (A1)

14

v n+1 = v n + 4000 × (
3.98×10
6 2
− (8 × 10
−5
)v n ) (M1)(A1)
v n (6.41×10 −s n )
 Note: Award (M1) for attempt to use Euler method formula AND dividing through by v.

if v 0 = 10 , then v 10 = 361 (360. 658 …) A1

[4 marks]

(e) After Felix completed his record-breaking jump, he found that the answer from part (d) was not
supported by data collected during the jump.

(e.i) Suggest one improvement to the use of Euler’s method which might increase the accuracy of the
prediction of the model. [1]

Markscheme

Use a smaller step length R1

OR

Use a better method such as Runge-Kutta R1

OR

(Try to) solve the equation exactly R1

[1 mark]

(e.ii) Suggest one factor not explicitly considered by the model in part (d) which might lead to a difference
between the model’s prediction and the data collected. [1]

Markscheme

Any reasonable response: R1

For example:

Ignoring parachute / end point of motion / only valid for certain domain.
Treating Felix as a point object.
Ignoring weather / wind / air currents.
Assuming path is directly downwards.
Assuming perfect measurement of initial speed.

[1 mark]

10. [Maximum mark: 27] 23N.3.AHL.TZ0.2

This question is about applying ideas from logarithms, calculus and probability to an unfamiliar mathematical
theory called information theory.

Claude Shannon developed a mathematical theory called information theory to measure the information gained when
random events occur. He defined the information, I , that is gained when an event with probability p occurs as
I = − ln p

where 0 < p ≤ 1. For example, no information is gained (I = 0) when an event is certain to occur (p = 1) .
(a.i) Sketch the graph of I = − ln p, for 0 < p ≤ 1, labelling all axes intercepts and asymptotes. [3]

Markscheme

approximately correct shape (decreasing and convex) A1

asymptotic behaviour to the I -axis labelled (e.g. arrow) / equation of asymptote (p = 0) seen A1

p -intercept labelled at p = 1 and graph does not extend beyond A1

Note: Condone I and p being labelled as y and x.

Do not award second A1 if y-intercept label is seen.

[3 marks]

(a.ii) Show, using calculus, that I is a decreasing function of p. [3]

Markscheme

dI

dp
= −
1

p
A1A1

Note: Award A1 for or equivalent (e.g. I ′) and A1 for − . Do not accept for the first A1 unless followed by
dI 1 dy

dp p dx

−
1

x
, which can earn A1A0.

(for 0 < p ≤ 1 ) we therefore have dI

dp
< 0 R1

hence the function is decreasing AG

[3 marks]

(a.iii) Interpret what “I is a decreasing function of p” means in the given context. [1]

Markscheme

Any plausible interpretation IN CONTEXT. R1

For example:
 More information is gained from a rarer event.
Less information is gained from a more common event.
Information (gained) decreases as probability increases.

[1 mark]

(b) A computer selects at random an integer x from 1 to 10, inclusive. Each outcome is equally likely.

Alessia is trying to determine the value of x and asks if x is odd.

(b.i) Write down the probability that x is odd. [1]

Markscheme

10
(=
1

2
) A1

[1 mark]

(b.ii) Alessia is told that x is odd. Find how much information Alessia gains. [2]

Markscheme

attempt to substitute p = their (b)(i) into I = − ln p (M1)

= 0. 693 (0. 693147 … , − ln (

1
2
)) A1

[2 marks]

The computer then selects at random an integer y from 1 to 10, inclusive. Each outcome is equally likely.

Daniel is trying to determine the value of y and asks if y is 7. He is told that it is not 7.

(b.iii) Find how much information Daniel gains. [2]

Markscheme

10
(A1)

= 0. 105 (0. 105360 … , − ln (

9

10
)) A1

[2 marks]

If a random variable has n possible outcomes with probabilities p 1, p2 … pn , then the expected information gained,
E(I ), is defined as

E(I ) = Σ − p r ln p r .
r=1

(c) For the integer guessing game described in part (b), when Daniel asks if y is 7, there are two possible
outcomes: “y is 7” or “y is not 7”.
(c.i) Show that the expected information gained by Daniel is 0. 325, correct to three significant figures. [2]

Markscheme

attempt to substitute into the formula for E(I ) and recognise that n = 2 (or two terms are needed) M1

E(I ) = −
1

10
ln (
10
1
) −
9

10
ln (
9

10
) A1

0. 325 (0. 325082 …) AG

[2 marks]

(c.ii) Alessia asks if x is odd. Show that her expected information gained is greater than Daniel’s expected
information gained. [2]

Markscheme

E(I ) = −
1

2
ln (
1

2
) −
1

2
ln (
1

2
) A1

0. 693 (0. 693147 … , ln (2)) A1

0. 693 > 0. 325 AG

[2 marks]

Information theory can be applied to a variety of situations.

(d) When a coin is flipped, the outcome is either heads or tails. The coin may be biased. Let p be the
probability of the outcome being heads.

(d.i) Find, in terms of p, the information gained when the outcome is tails. [1]

Markscheme

(I =) − ln (1 − p) A1

[1 mark]

(d.ii) Find, in terms of p, the expected information gained when the coin is flipped once. [1]

Markscheme

(E(I ) =) − p ln p − (1 − p) ln (1 − p) A1

[1 mark]

(d.iii) Hence, find the value of p when the expected information gained is maximized. [2]

Markscheme
 attempt to use graphical method or calculus to maximize E(I ) A1

maximum occurs when p =

1

2
A1

[2 mark]

A famous puzzle uses 12 balls which appear identical. 11 have the same weight, but one is either lighter or heavier than
the others. A pair of scales can be repeatedly used to compare the weights of different combinations of the balls.

The outcome of each weighing can be “balanced”, “left-hand side heavier” or “right-hand side heavier”. The aim of the
puzzle is to identify the ball which is the different weight, and whether it is heavier or lighter than the others, in as few
weighings as possible.

(e) Angela wants to decide how many balls should be compared to each other in the first weighing. She
produces the following table to help plan her strategy.
(e.i) Find the value of x. Justify your answer. [2]

Markscheme

(x =)
6

12
(=
1

2
) A1

EITHER

for the scales to balance, the odd ball must be in the six balls not chosen R1

OR

for the scales to balance, all the balls chosen must be of equal weight and hence

11

12
×
10

11
×
9

10
× … ×
6

7
R1

[2 mark]

(e.ii) Find the value of y. [2]

Markscheme

EITHER

recognition that the sum of the probabilities on the third row of the table equals 1 (M1)

e.g. x + 2y = 1

OR

for one side to be heavier, the odd ball must be one of six balls chosen ( 6

12
) and half the time this will result in left-
side being heavier, therefore y = × (M1) 6

12
1

y =
1

4
A1

[2 marks]

(e.iii) Find the value of z. [2]

Markscheme

z = −
1

6
ln
1

6
−
1

6
ln
1

6
−
2

3
ln
2

3
(M1)

= 0. 868 (0. 867563 …) A1

[2 marks]

(e.iv) Use the table to suggest the best choice for Angela’s first weighing. Justify your answer. [1]

Markscheme

4 balls on each side because that configuration has the largest E(I ) R1
 Note: Award R1 for giving a correct reason AND stating “4 balls on each side”

[1 mark]

11. [Maximum mark: 26] 23M.3.AHL.TZ1.1

In this question you will use a historic method of calculating the cost of a barrel of wine to determine which shape
of barrel gives the best value for money.

In Austria in the 17th century, one method for measuring the volume of a barrel of wine, and hence determining its cost,
was by inserting a straight stick into a hole in the side, as shown in the following diagram, and measuring the length
SD. The longer the length, the greater the cost to the customer.

Let SD be d metres and the cost be C gulden (the local currency at the time). When the length of SD was 0. 5 metres,
the cost was 0. 80 gulden.

(a) Given that C was directly proportional to d, find an equation for C in terms of d.
[3] 

Markscheme

C = kd (M1)

0. 80 = 0. 5k OR C
d
=
0.8
0.5
(A1)

k = 1. 6

C = 1. 6d OR C =
d

0.625
A1

Note: For the final A1 do not accept C =

0.8
0.5
d or a correct equation which does not have C as the subject.

[3 marks]

A particular barrel of wine cost 0. 96 gulden.

(b) Show that d = 0. 6 .
[1] 

Markscheme

d =
0.96

1.6
M1

Note: Award M1 for the substitution of C = 0. 96 into a correct equation, award M0 for substitution of d = 0. 6 .

= 0. 6 AG

[1 mark]

This method of determining the cost was noticed by a mathematician, Kepler, who decided to try to calculate the
dimensions of a barrel which would give the maximum volume of wine for a given length SD.

Initially he modelled the barrel as a cylinder, with S at the midpoint of one side. He took the length of the cylinder as 2h
metres and its radius as r metres, as shown in the following diagram of the cross-section.

diagram not to scale

(c) Find an expression for r in terms of d and h.

2

[3] 

Markscheme

attempt at using Pythagoras M1

d
2
= h
2
+ (2r)
2
(A1)

r
2
=
1

4
(d
2
− h )
2
A1

[3 marks]

Let the volume of this barrel be V m

3
.
(d) Show that V
π 2 3
.
=
2
(d h − h ) [2] 

Markscheme

V = πr (2h)
2
(A1)

V =
π

4
(d
2 2
− h )(2h) (M1)

Note: The M1 is for the substitution of their expression for r into their formula for V .2

V =
π

2
2
(d h − h )
3
AG

[2 marks]

The remainder of this question considers the shape of barrel that gives the best value when d = 0. 6 .

(e.i) Use the formula from part (d) to find the volume of this barrel when h = 0. 4 .
[2] 

Markscheme

π 2 3
V = (d h − h )
2

=
π

2
(0. 6
2
× 0. 4 − 0. 4 )
3
(M1)

Note: The M1 is for substituting correct values of both d and h in the formula from part (d).

3
= 0. 126 (m ) 0. (12566 … ,
π

2
, 0. 04π) A1

[2 marks]

(e.ii) Use differentiation to show that h = √ 0. 12 when dV

.

= 0
dh [3]

Markscheme

V =
π

2
(0. 36h − h )
3
M1

Note: Award M1 for substitution of d = 0. 6 . This may be seen anywhere.

 dV

dh
=
π

2
2
(0. 36 − 3h ) = 0 A1

Note: Award A1 for correct differentiation.

h
2
=
0.36

3
(= 0. 12) A1

Note: Do not award the final A1 if the working is done with approximate values or if √0. 12 is substituted into dV

dh
.

h = √ 0. 12 AG

[3 marks]

(e.iii) Given that this value of h maximizes the volume, find the largest possible volume of this barrel.
[2] 

Markscheme

substituting h = √ 0. 12 into equation for V OR use of graph (M1)

π
V = (0. 36 − 0. 12)√ 0. 12
2

3
0. 131 (m ) (0. 130593 … , 0. 0416π) (A1)

[2 marks]

Kepler then considered a non-cylindrical barrel whose base and lid are circles with radius 0. 2 m and whose length is
0. 8 m.

He modelled the curved surface of this barrel by rotating a quadratic curve, ASB, with equation y = ax + bx + c,
2

0 ≤ x ≤ 0. 8, about the x-axis. The origin of the coordinate system is at the centre of one of the circular faces as shown

in the following diagram. S is at the vertex of the quadratic curve and SD = 0. 6.

Kepler wished to find out if his barrel would give him more wine than any cylindrical barrel with d = 0. 6 .

The coordinates of A and B are (0, 0. 2) and (0. 8, 0. 2) respectively.

(f ) Find the equation of the quadratic curve, ASB.
[6] 

Markscheme

x -coordinate of S is 0. 4 (A1)

let the y-coordinate be y s

attempt at Pythagoras (M1)

2 2 2
(y s + 0. 2) = 0. 6 − 0. 4

y s + 0. 2 = √ 0. 2

y s = 0. 247 (0. 247213 …) (A1)

Note: The (M1) mark can be implied by a y-coordinate of 0. 447 or 0. 647 seen.

any valid method to find equation

e.g. quadratic regression, vertex form, simultaneous equation. (M1)

Note: Award only if the student has found three points on the curve.

EITHER

y = −0. 295x
2
+ 0. 236x + 0. 2 A2

2
(y = −0. 295081 … x + 0. 236065 … x + 0. 2)
 Note: Award A1 if one coefficient (−0. 295081 … or 0. 236065 …) is correct or if “y =” is missing, A2 for
completely correct equation.
Award A1 for y = −0. 294x + 0. 235x + 0. 2 obtained from using the 3 sf value of y .
2
s

OR

A2
2
y = −0. 295(x − 0. 4) + 0. 247

2
(y = −0. 295081 … (x − 0. 4) + 0. 247213 …)

Note: Award A1 for −0. 295, A2 for completely correct equation.

[6 marks]

(g) Show that the volume of this barrel is greater than the maximum volume of any cylindrical barrel with
d = 0. 6.
[3] 

Markscheme

2
volume = M1
0.8 2
π∫ (−0. 295081 … x + 0. 236065 … x + 0. 2) d x
0

Note: Award M1 for the minimum of an integral with the correct limits and their function squared.

= 0. 135 (0. 135161 …) A1

0. 135 > 0. 131 R1

Note: Award R1 independently of the previous marks for a correct comparison of their (clearly stated) volume with
their answer to part (e)(iii).

Hence the volume is greater than any cylinder volume AG

[3 marks]

(h) State one assumption, not already given, that has been made in using these models to find the shape
of the barrel that gives the best value.
 [1] 

Markscheme

Award A1 for at least one reasonable answer, for example:

the barrel is full of wine when sold

the barrel/stick is constructed with zero thickness
the stick is straight and inflexible
the hole has no diameter
volume of wine is the only important factor in value
aesthetics are not important

Note: Do not accept statements that relate to the barrel having circular cross-section, for example, ‘there are no
deformities’, ‘it is perfectly smooth’ as these assumptions have already been made with the chosen model.

[1 mark]

12. [Maximum mark: 26] 23M.3.AHL.TZ1.1

In this question you will use a historic method of calculating the cost of a barrel of wine to determine which shape
of barrel gives the best value for money.

In Austria in the 17th century, one method for measuring the volume of a barrel of wine, and hence determining its cost,
was by inserting a straight stick into a hole in the side, as shown in the following diagram, and measuring the length
SD. The longer the length, the greater the cost to the customer.

Let SD be d metres and the cost be C gulden (the local currency at the time). When the length of SD was 0. 5 metres,
the cost was 0. 80 gulden.

(a) Given that C was directly proportional to d, find an equation for C in terms of d.
[3] 
 Markscheme

C = kd (M1)

0. 80 = 0. 5k OR C

d
=
0.8

0.5
(A1)

k = 1. 6

C = 1. 6d OR C =
d

0.625
A1

Note: For the final A1 do not accept C =

0.8

0.5
d or a correct equation which does not have C as the subject.

[3 marks]

A particular barrel of wine cost 0. 96 gulden.

(b) Show that d = 0. 6 .

[1] 

Markscheme

d =
0.96

1.6
M1

Note: Award M1 for the substitution of C = 0. 96 into a correct equation, award M0 for substitution of d = 0. 6 .

= 0. 6 AG

[1 mark]

This method of determining the cost was noticed by a mathematician, Kepler, who decided to try to calculate the
dimensions of a barrel which would give the maximum volume of wine for a given length SD.

Initially he modelled the barrel as a cylinder, with S at the midpoint of one side. He took the length of the cylinder as 2h
metres and its radius as r metres, as shown in the following diagram of the cross-section.

diagram not to scale

(c) Find an expression for r in terms of d and h.2

[3] 

Markscheme

attempt at using Pythagoras M1

(A1)
2 2 2
d = h + (2r)

r
2
=
1

4
(d
2 2
− h ) A1

[3 marks]

Let the volume of this barrel be V m

3
.

(d) Show that V

π
. 
2 3
=
2
(d h − h ) [2]

Markscheme

V = πr (2h)
2
(A1)

V =
π

4
(d
2 2
− h )(2h) (M1)

Note: The M1 is for the substitution of their expression for r into their formula for V .
2

V =
π

2
2
(d h − h )
3
AG

[2 marks]

The remainder of this question considers the shape of barrel that gives the best value when d = 0. 6 .

(e.i) Use the formula from part (d) to find the volume of this barrel when h = 0. 4 .
[2] 

Markscheme
 π 2 3
V = (d h − h )
2

=
π

2
(0. 6
2
× 0. 4 − 0. 4 )
3
(M1)

Note: The M1 is for substituting correct values of both d and h in the formula from part (d).

= 0. 126 (m ) 0. (12566 … ,
3 π

2
, 0. 04π) A1

[2 marks]

(e.ii) Use differentiation to show that h = √ 0. 12 when dV

.
dh
= 0
[3] 

Markscheme

V =
π

2
(0. 36h − h )
3
M1

Note: Award M1 for substitution of d = 0. 6 . This may be seen anywhere.

dV

dh
=
π

2
(0. 36 − 3h ) = 0
2
A1

Note: Award A1 for correct differentiation.

h
2
=
0.36

3
(= 0. 12) A1

Note: Do not award the final A1 if the working is done with approximate values or if √0. 12 is substituted into dV

dh
.

h = √ 0. 12 AG

[3 marks]

(e.iii) Given that this value of h maximizes the volume, find the largest possible volume of this barrel.
[2] 
 Markscheme

substituting h = √ 0. 12 into equation for V OR use of graph (M1)

π
V = (0. 36 − 0. 12)√ 0. 12
2

3
0. 131 (m ) (0. 130593 … , 0. 0416π) (A1)

[2 marks]

Kepler then considered a non-cylindrical barrel whose base and lid are circles with radius 0. 2 m and whose length is
0. 8 m.

He modelled the curved surface of this barrel by rotating a quadratic curve, ASB, with equation y = ax + bx + c,
2

0 ≤ x ≤ 0. 8, about the x-axis. The origin of the coordinate system is at the centre of one of the circular faces as shown

in the following diagram. S is at the vertex of the quadratic curve and SD = 0. 6.

Kepler wished to find out if his barrel would give him more wine than any cylindrical barrel with d = 0. 6 .

The coordinates of A and B are (0, 0. 2) and (0. 8, 0. 2) respectively.

(f ) Find the equation of the quadratic curve, ASB.

[6] 

Markscheme

x-coordinate of S is 0. 4 (A1)

let the y-coordinate be y s

attempt at Pythagoras (M1)

 2 2 2
(y s + 0. 2) = 0. 6 − 0. 4

y s + 0. 2 = √ 0. 2

y s = 0. 247 (0. 247213 …) (A1)

Note: The (M1) mark can be implied by a y-coordinate of 0. 447 or 0. 647 seen.

any valid method to find equation

e.g. quadratic regression, vertex form, simultaneous equation. (M1)

Note: Award only if the student has found three points on the curve.

EITHER

y = −0. 295x
2
+ 0. 236x + 0. 2 A2

2
(y = −0. 295081 … x + 0. 236065 … x + 0. 2)

Note: Award A1 if one coefficient (−0. 295081 … or 0. 236065 …) is correct or if “y =” is missing, A2 for
completely correct equation.
Award A1 for y = −0. 294x + 0. 235x + 0. 2 obtained from using the 3 sf value of y .
2
s

OR

y = −0. 295(x − 0. 4)
2
+ 0. 247 A2

2
(y = −0. 295081 … (x − 0. 4) + 0. 247213 …)

Note: Award A1 for −0. 295, A2 for completely correct equation.

[6 marks]

(g) Show that the volume of this barrel is greater than the maximum volume of any cylindrical barrel with
d = 0. 6.
[3] 

Markscheme

2
volume = M1
0.8 2
π∫ (−0. 295081 … x + 0. 236065 … x + 0. 2) d x
0
 Note: Award M1 for the minimum of an integral with the correct limits and their function squared.

= 0. 135 (0. 135161 …) A1

0. 135 > 0. 131 R1

Note: Award R1 independently of the previous marks for a correct comparison of their (clearly stated) volume with
their answer to part (e)(iii).

Hence the volume is greater than any cylinder volume AG

[3 marks]

(h) State one assumption, not already given, that has been made in using these models to find the shape
of the barrel that gives the best value. [1] 

Markscheme

Award A1 for at least one reasonable answer, for example:

the barrel is full of wine when sold

the barrel/stick is constructed with zero thickness
the stick is straight and inflexible
the hole has no diameter
volume of wine is the only important factor in value
aesthetics are not important

Note: Do not accept statements that relate to the barrel having circular cross-section, for example, ‘there are no
deformities’, ‘it is perfectly smooth’ as these assumptions have already been made with the chosen model.

[1 mark]

13. [Maximum mark: 26] 23M.3.AHL.TZ2.1

This question considers the optimal route between two points, separated by several regions where different
speeds are possible.

Huw lives in a house, H, and he attends a school, S, where H and S are marked on the following diagram. The school is
situated 1. 2 km south and 4 km east of Huw’s house. There is a boundary [MN], going from west to east, 0. 4 km
south of his house. The land north of [MN] is a field over which Huw runs at 15 kilometres per hour (km h ). The land
−1
south of [MN] is rough ground over which Huw walks at 5 km h −1
. The two regions are shown in the following
diagram.

diagram not to scale

(a) Huw travels in a straight line from H to S. Calculate the time that Huw takes to complete this journey.
Give your answer correct to the nearest minute. [6]

Markscheme

METHOD 1

MĤS = (tan
−1 4

1.2
) = 73. 3007 …° OR 1. 27933 … (A1)

use of trigonometry to find HA or AS (M1)

HA =
0.4
AND AS =
0.8
(A1)
cos MĤS cos MĤS

(HA = 1. 39204 … and AS = 2. 78408 … )

use of time =
distance

speed
for either of their distances (M1)

time taken = (
AH

15
+
AS

5
)

0. 649618 … (hours) (A1)

(38. 99712 … minutes)

therefore 39 (mins) A1FT

Note: Allow FT, within the question part, from their time in hours for the final A1.

METHOD 2

EITHER

use of similar triangles to identify either length MA or AN (M1)

4 8
( or )
3 3

attempt to use Pythagoras for either triangle AMH or ANS (M1)

2 2
AH
2
= 0. 4
2
+ (
4

3
) AND AS
2
= 0. 8
2
+ (
8

3
) (A1)

OR

attempt to use Pythagoras for larger triangle (M1)

2 2 2
SH = 4 + 1. 2

AH =
1

3
√ 4 2 + 1. 2 2 AND AS =
2

3
√ 4 2 + 1. 2 2 (M1)(A1)

THEN

(HA = 1. 39204 … and AS = 2. 78408 … )

use of time =
distance

speed
for either of THEIR distances (M1)

time taken = (
AH

15
+
AS

5
)

0. 649618 … (hours) (A1)

(38. 99712 … minutes)

therefore 39 (mins) A1FT

Note: Allow FT, within the question part, from their time in hours for the final A1.

[6 marks]
(b) Huw realizes that his journey time could be reduced by taking a less direct route. He therefore defines a
point P on [MN] that is x km east of M. Huw decides to run from H to P and then walk from P to S.
Let T ( x) represent the time, in hours, taken by Huw to complete the journey along this route.

(b.i) √ 0.4 2 +x 2 +3√ 0.8 2 +(4−x)

2

Show that T (x) = .

[3]
15

Markscheme

AND A1
2 2 2 2 2 2
PH = 0. 4 + x PS = 0. 8 + (4 − x)

Note: This A1 can be implied by a clear expression for the time in each region coming from distance / speed below.

T (x) =
PH

15
+
PS

5
(M1)

2
√ 0.8 2 +(4−x)

A1
√ 0.4 2 +x 2
T (x) = +
15 5

2
√ 0.4 2 +x 2 +3√ 0.8 2 +(4−x)

T (x) =
15
AG

[3 marks]

(b.ii) Sketch the graph of y = T (x) . [2]

Markscheme

correct shape with minimum point nearer x = 4 than x = 0 A1

correct (approximate) y-intercept, 0. 843 … (must be clearly below 1) A1

 [2 marks]

(b.iii) Hence determine the value of x that minimizes T (x). [1]

Markscheme

using the GDC, at the minimum x = 3. 72 (3. 71898 …) A1

Note: Do not accept coordinates of the minimum point.

[1 mark]

(b.iv) Find by how much Huw’s journey time is reduced when he takes this optimal route, compared to
travelling in a straight line from H to S. Give your answer correct to the nearest minute. [2]

Markscheme

finding their T (x) for their value of x M1

T (x) = 0. 418946 …

so time saved (= 38. 97712 … − 25. 1367 … mins) = 14 (mins) A1

[2 marks]

(c.i) Determine an expression for the derivative T ′(x). [3]

Markscheme

attempt at chain rule M1

A1A1
1 x 3(4−x)
T ′(x) = ( − )
15 √ 0.4 2 +x 2 2
√ 0.8 2 +(4−x)

Note: Award A1 for each correct term. Accept any equivalent form i.e. condone fractions not simplified.

[3 marks]

(c.ii) Hence show that T (x) is minimized when

 x
=
3(4−x)
. [1]
√ 0.16+x 2 2
√ 0.64+(4−x)

Markscheme

setting their T ′(x) = 0 M1

Note: This requires more than just a statement that the derivative equals zero – they must use their attempt at
T ′(x).

1 x 3(4−x)
( − ) = 0
15 √ 0.4 2 +x 2 2
√ 0.8 2 +(4−x)

AG
x 3(4−x)
=
√ 0.16+x 2 2
√ 0.64+(4−x)

[1 mark]

(c.iii) For the optimal route, verify that the equation in part (c)(ii) satisfies the following result:

cos HP̂M speed over f ield

cos SP̂N
=
speed over rough ground
. [2]

Markscheme

METHOD 1

cos HP̂M =
x
AND cos SP̂N =
4−x
A1
√ 0.16+x 2
√ 0.64+(4−x) 2

substituting in the above equation and rearranging M1

ˆ ˆ
cos HPM = 3 cos SPN leading to cos HP̂M
= 3 = (
15
5
)
cos SP̂N

verifying the result AG

METHOD 2

x 3(4−x)
=
√ 0.16+x 2 2
√ 0.64+(4−x)

attempt to rearrange into a quotient M1

x

15 √ 2
0.16+x
( = 3 =) 4−x
5
√ 2
0.64+(4−x)

=
cos HP̂M
A1
cos SP̂N
 verifying the result AG

[2 marks]

(d) The owner of the rough ground converts the southern quarter into a field over which Huw can run at
15 km h
−1
. The following diagram shows the optimal route, HJKS, in this new situation. You are
given that [HJ] is parallel to [KS].

Using a similar result to that given in part (c)(iii), at the point J, determine MJ. [6]

Markscheme

METHOD 1

let MJ = y km and W and Z be the points on the new boundary directly below N and J

attempt to find ZK in terms of MJ M1

(KW = 0. 5y)

ZK = (4 − 1. 5y) km A1

attempt to use the result from (c)(iii) at J M1

 (4−1.5y)
A1
cos HĴM y 15
= ÷ =
√ y 2 +0.4 2 2
5
cos ZK̂J √ (4−1.5y) +0.6 2

Note: Accept cos Nˆ

JK in place of cos ZKJ.
ˆ

y 3(4−1.5y)
(leading to ÷ )
√ y 2 +0.16 √ (4−1.5y) 2 +0.36

valid method for solving this equation, eg drawing graphs of both sides of the equation, using SOLVER, etc.
(M1)

solution is y = 2. 53 A1

METHOD 2

combining the field into one region with height 0. 6 km M1

x
cos HP̂M =
√ 0.36+x 2

cos SP̂N =
4−x
A1
√ 0.36+(4−x) 2

Note: Both expressions, or their ratio, are required for the A1 to be awarded.

therefore

2
x√ 0.36+(4−x)
= 3 A1
(4−x)√ 0.36+x 2

valid method for solving (M1)

attempting to find MJ in terms of x e.g. MJ =

2

3
x M1

so MJ = 2. 53 A1

[6 marks]

14. [Maximum mark: 26] 22N.3.AHL.TZ0.2

Some medical conditions require patients to take medication regularly for long periods of time. In this question,
you will explore the concentration of a medicinal drug in the body, when the drug is given repeatedly.

Once a drug enters the body, it is absorbed into the blood. As the body breaks down the drug over time, the
concentration of the drug decreases. Let C(t), measured in milligrams per millilitre (mg ml −1
) , be the concentration of
the drug, t hours after the drug is given to the patient. The rate at which the drug is broken down is modelled as directly
proportional to its concentration, leading to the differential equation

dC

dt
= −kC , where k ∈ R
+
.

The initial concentration is d mg ml −1

, d > 0 .

(a) By solving the differential equation, show that C = de

−kt
. [3]

Markscheme

attempt to separate variable M1

1
∫ d C = ∫ −k d t
C

ln|C| = −kt (+c) A1

−kt
C = Ae

substituting t = 0, C = d

A = d A1

Note: To award the A1, t = 0 must be seen.

C = de
−kt
AG

[3 marks]

For the remainder of this question, you will consider a particular drug where it is known that k = 0. 2 . The first dose is
given at time t = 0 and it is assumed that before this there is no drug present in the blood.

(b) Find the time, in hours, for this drug to reach 5% of its initial concentration. [2]

Markscheme

0. 05d = de
−0.2t
(A1)

15. 0 (14. 9786 …) A1

 [2 marks]

The drug is to be given every T hours and in constant doses, such that the concentration of the drug is increased by an
amount d mg ml −1
. To simplify the model, it is assumed that each time the drug is given the concentration of the drug
in the blood increases instantaneously.

(c) Show that the concentration of the drug is d(1 + e −0.2T

+ e
−0.4T
) immediately after the third dose is
given. [4]

Markscheme

EITHER

first dose: when t = 2T then C 1 = de

−0.4T
A1

second dose: when t = T then C 2 = de

−0.2T
A1

third dose: when t = 0 then C 3 = d A1

sum the three doses M1

Note: A timing of the dose and the expression must be clearly indicted and correct to award A1. Condone absence of
d for A1A1A1.

OR

considering values of C before and after a dose M1

immediately before the second dose, C = de

−0.2T

immediately after the second dose, C = de

−0.2T
+ d A1

immediately before the third dose, C = (de

−0.2T
+ d)e
−0.2T
(A1)

immediately after the third dose, C = (de

−0.2T
+ d)e
−0.2T
+ d A1

THEN

⇒ C = d(1 + e
−0.2T
+ e
−0.4T
) AG

Note: Do not accept any response using the general formula given before part (d). Award M1A1A1A0 if d not
included in the final formula.

[4 marks]

Immediately after the nth dose is given, the concentration of the drug is
d(1 + e
−0.2T
+ e
−0.4T
+ … + e
−0.2(n−1)T
) .
(d) Show that this concentration can be expressed as d( 1−e
−0.2nT

.
1−e −0.2T
) [2]

Markscheme

r = e
−0.2T
and u1 = d A1

correct substitution into geometric series formula A1

n
−0.2T
d(1−(e ) )
C = −0.2T
1−e

−0.2nT

= d(
1−e

1−e
−0.2T
) AG

[2 marks]

After a patient has been taking this drug for a long time, it is required to keep the concentration within a particular
range so that it is both safe and effective.

Let H be the highest concentration of the drug in the body for the interval (n − 1)T
n ≤ t < nT .

Let L be the lowest concentration of the drug in the body for the interval (n − 1)T
n ≤ t < nT . This is shown in the
following graph.

H∞ is defined as lim H n and L ∞ is defined as lim L n .

n→∞ n→∞

Find, in terms of d and T , an expression for

(e.i) H∞ . [2]

Markscheme

as n → ∞ e , −0.2nT
→ 0 (since T > 0 ) (M1)
 H∞ =
1−e −0.2T
d
A1

[2 marks]

(e.ii) L∞ . [3]

Markscheme

METHOD 1

lim L n = lim H n × e
−0.2T
(M1)(A1)
n→∞ n→∞

L∞ = (
1−e −0.2T
d
)e
−0.2T
OR =
d

e 0.2T −1
A1

METHOD 2

Ln occurs immediately before the (n + 1) th

dose (M1)

−0.2nT

L n = d(
1−e

1−e
−0.2T
)e
−0.2T
(A1)

as n → ∞ e , −0.2nT
→ 0 (since T > 0 )

L∞ = (
1−e −0.2T
d
)e
−0.2T
OR =
d

e 0.2T −1
A1

[3 marks]

Show that

(f.i) H∞ − L∞ = d . [2]

Markscheme

METHOD 1
−0.2T

H∞ − L∞ =
d

1−e −0.2T
−
de

1−e −0.2T
M1
−0.2T
d(1−e )
=
1−e
−0.2T
A1

= d AG

METHOD 2

H∞ − L∞ =
1−e
d
−0.2T
−
e
d
0.2T
−1
M1
 0.2T −0.2T
de −d−d+de
=
e 0.2T −1−e 0 +e −0.2T

0.2T −0.2T
d(e +e −2)
=
e
0.2T
+e
−0.2T
−2
A1

= d AG

Note: Award M1A0 for the use of their formulae from part (e).
Award M0A0 if at no point n → ∞ in their response.

[2 marks]

(f.ii) H∞
.
5 ln(
L∞
) = T [3]

Markscheme

EITHER
d

M1
H∞ 1−e
−0.2T

ln( ) = ln( −0.2T

)
L∞ de

1−e −0.2T

= ln(e
0.2T
) A1

= 0. 2T A1

OR

H∞ e
−0.2T
= L∞ (M1)

A1
L∞
ln( ) = −0. 2T
H∞

−1

A1
L∞
ln ( ) = 0. 2T
H∞

THEN

AG
H∞
5 ln( ) = T
L∞

Note: Award M1A0 for the use of their incorrect formulae from part (e).
Award M0A0 if at no point n → ∞ in their response.

[3 marks]

It is known that this drug is ineffective if the long-term concentration is less than 0. 06 mg ml −1
and safe if it never
exceeds 0. 28 mg ml
−1
.
Hence, for this drug, find a suitable value for

(g.i) d . [1]

Markscheme

d = 0. 22 A1

[1 mark]

(g.ii) T . [1]

Markscheme

T = 7. 70 A1

Note: Accept T = 7. 7 .

[1 mark]

(h) For the values of d and T found in part (g), find the proportion of time for which the concentration of
the drug is at least 0. 06 mg ml −1
between the first and second doses. [2]

Markscheme

−0.2t
0. 06 = 0. 22e

proportion of time = 6.49641…

7.702…
(M1)

84. 3% A1

[2 marks]

(i) Suggest a reason why the instructions on the label of the drug might use a different value for T to that
found in part (g)(ii). [1]

Markscheme

EITHER

rounding to 8 hours leads to 3 times a day R1

OR
 7. 7 hours is difficult to schedule R1

OR

a tolerance may be necessary to not be too close to unsafe boundary R1

OR

avoid giving too much of the drug and giving the patient an overdose R1

Note: Accept any reasonable argument that engages with the model in a practical sense. Do not accept an answer
based on part (h) along the lines “it should be given more often”.

[1 mark]

15. [Maximum mark: 29] 22N.3.AHL.TZ0.1

In this question, you will explore possible approaches to using historical sports results for making predictions
about future sports matches.

Two friends, Peter and Helen, are discussing ways of predicting the outcomes of international football matches
involving Argentina.

Peter suggests analysing historical data to help make predictions. He lists the results of the most recent 240 matches in
which Argentina played, in chronological order, then considers blocks of four matches at a time. He counts how many
times Argentina has won in each block. The following table shows his results for the 60 blocks of four matches.

(a) Determine the mean number of wins per block of four matches for Argentina. [2]

Markscheme

12

5
(
144

60
, 2. 4) (M1)A1

[2 marks]
Peter thinks that this data can be modelled by a binomial distribution with n = 4 and decides to carry out a χ 2

goodness of fit test.

(b) Use Peter’s data to write down an estimate for the probability p for this binomial model. [1]

Markscheme

5
(
144

240
, 0. 6) A1

[1 mark]

(c.i) Use the binomial model to find the probability that Argentina win zero matches in a block of four
matches. [1]

Markscheme

wins ~B(4, 3

5
)

P (wins = 0 ) = 0. 0256 A1

Note: Allow FT from use of their probability in part (b) but only when used with n = 4 .

[1 mark]

(c.ii) Find the expected frequency for zero wins. [2]

Markscheme

expected frequency = 60 × 0. 0256 (M1)

= 1. 536 A1

[2 marks]

As some expected frequencies are less than 5, Peter combines rows in his table to produce the following observed
frequencies. He then uses his binomial model to find appropriate expected frequencies, correct to one decimal place.
Peter uses this table to carry out a χ goodness of fit test, to test the hypothesis that the data follows a binomial
2

distribution with n = 4, at the 5% significance level.

For this test, state

(d.i) the null hypothesis; [1]

Markscheme

H0 : data follows a Binomial distribution with n = 4 A1

[1 mark]

(d.ii) the number of degrees of freedom; [1]

Markscheme

(df = 4 − 1 − 1 =) 2 A1

[1 mark]

(d.iii) the p-value; [2]

Markscheme

p -value = 0. 954 (0. 953872 …) (M1)A1

[2 marks]

(d.iv) the conclusion, justifying your answer. [2]

Markscheme

0. 954 > 0. 05 R1
 insufficient evidence to reject H 0 A1

Note: Condone “accept H ”. Follow through from their p-value in part (d)(iii) if the reasoning is correct and correct
0

conclusions are made. Do NOT award R0A1.

[2 marks]

(e) Using Peter’s binomial model, find the probability that Argentina will win at least one of their next four
international football matches. [2]

Markscheme

wins ~B(4, 3

5
) OR 1 − 0. 0256 (M1)

P (wins ≥ 1 ) = 0. 974 (0. 9744) A1

[2 marks]

Helen thinks that a better prediction might be made by considering the transition between matches. To keep the model
simple, she decides to use only two states: Argentina won (A) or Argentina did not win (B). Helen looks at Peter’s list of
results and counts the number of times that:

Argentina won, twice in succession (AA),

Argentina won, then did not win (AB),
Argentina did not win, then won (BA),
Argentina did not win, twice in succession (BB).

She recorded the following results.

Helen uses the relative frequencies to estimate the probabilities in a transition matrix.

(f.i) Given that Argentina won the previous match, show that Helen’s estimate for the probability of
Argentina winning the next match is 17

29
. [2]

Markscheme

there are 145 transitions that start with Argentina, (M1)

 (of which 85 lead to Argentina winning,) so the probability is 85

145
A1

=
17

29
AG

[2 marks]

(f.ii) Write down the transition matrix, T , for Helen’s model. [2]

Markscheme

17 31
0. 586 0. 660
A1A1
29 47
( ) (= ( ))
12 16
0. 414 0. 340
29 47

Note: Accept the transposed matrix as correct.

Award A1 for 17

29
placed in a leading diagonal.
Award A1 for all other values correct and in correct position in the matrix.

[2 marks]

(g.i) Show that the characteristic polynomial of T is 1363λ 2

− 1263λ − 100 = 0 . [3]

Markscheme

write their matrix with λ subtracted from the leading diagonal (M1)

equate determinant to zero (M1)

17 31
− λ
29 47
det( ) = 0
12 16
− λ
29 47

(
17

29
− λ)(
16

47
− λ) −
12

29
×
31

47
= 0 A1

correct intermediate step

1363λ
2
− 1263λ − 100 = 0 AG

Note: Do not award A1 if there is no intermediate step leading from determinant to given answer.
x x
Solving T ( ) = λ( ) for x and y may be seen and is a valid alternative method.
y y

Accept working in the form det(λI − T) = 0 .

[3 marks]
(g.ii) Hence or otherwise, find the eigenvalues of T . [1]

Markscheme

λ = 1, −
100

1363
(−0. 0733675 …) A1

[1 mark]

(g.iii) Find the corresponding eigenvectors. [3]

Markscheme

x x
attempt to solve T ( ) = λ( ) (M1)
y y

564
y = x
899

1 1
eigenvector for λ = 1 is ( 564
) (= ( )) A1
0. 627
899

1
eigenvector for λ = −
100
1363
is ( ) A1
−1

Note: Allow correct multiples of the eigenvectors.

1
If eigenvector ( ) is stated without the second eigenvector, or any other working, then award M0A0A1.
−1

[3 marks]

(h) In her retirement, many years from now, Helen is planning to travel to three consecutive international
football matches involving Argentina. Use Helen’s model to find the probability that Argentina will win
all three matches. [4]

Markscheme

EITHER

1 1
solution found using ( 564
) (= ( ))
0. 627
899

x +
564

899
x = 1 (M1)

x = 0. 614 (0. 614490 … ,

899

1463
) (A1)

OR
 solution can be found from high power of transition matrix

50
17 31
0. 614 0. 614
(M1)
29 47
( ) = ( )
12 16
0. 386 0. 386
29 47

Note: Accept the transposed matrix if consistent with their answer to part (f )(ii).

probability = 0. 614 (0. 614490 … ,

899

1463
) (A1)

THEN

2
P 3 ( wins) = 0. 614 × 0. 586
2
(=
899

1463
× (
17

29
) ) (M1)

= 0. 211 (0. 211162 … ,

8959

42427
) A1

[4 marks]

16. [Maximum mark: 28] 22M.3.AHL.TZ1.1

This question is about modelling the spread of a computer virus to predict the number of computers in a city
which will be infected by the virus.

A systems analyst defines the following variables in a model:

t is the number of days since the first computer was infected by the virus.
Q(t) is the total number of computers that have been infected up to and including day t.

The following data were collected:

(a.i) Find the equation of the regression line of Q(t) on t.

[2] 

Markscheme

Q(t) = 3090t − 54000 (3094. 27 … t − 54042. 3 …) A1A1

Note: Award at most A1A0 if answer is not an equation. Award A1A0 for an answer including either x or y.
 [2 marks]

(a.ii) Write down the value of r, Pearson’s product-moment correlation coefficient.

[1] 

Markscheme

0. 755 (0. 754741 …) A1

[1 mark]

(a.iii) Explain why it would not be appropriate to conduct a hypothesis test on the value of r found in (a)(ii).
[1] 

Markscheme

t is not a random variable OR it is not a (bivariate) normal distribution

OR data is not a sample from a population

OR data appears nonlinear

OR r only measures linear correlation R1

Note: Do not accept “r is not large enough”.

[1 mark]

A model for the early stage of the spread of the computer virus suggests that

Q′(t) = βN Q(t)

where N is the total number of computers in a city and β is a measure of how easily the virus is spreading between
computers. Both N and β are assumed to be constant.

(b.i) Find the general solution of the differential equation Q′(t) .

= βN Q(t)
[4] 

Markscheme

attempt to separate variables (M1)

1
∫ d Q = ∫ βN d t
Q

ln|Q| = βN t + c A1A1A1
 Note: Award A1 for LHS, A1 for βN t, and A1 for +c.

Award full marks for Q = e

βN t+c
OR Q = Ae
βN t
.

Award M1A1A1A0 for Q = e

βN t

[4 marks]

(b.ii) Using the data in the table write down the equation for an appropriate non-linear regression model.
[2] 

Markscheme

attempt at exponential regression (M1)

Q = 1. 15e
0.292t
(Q = 1. 14864 … e
0.292055…t
) A1

OR

attempt at exponential regression (M1)

Q = 1. 15 × 1. 34
t
(1. 14864 … × 1. 33917 … )
t
A1

Note: Condone answers involving y or x. Condone absence of “Q = ” Award M1A0 for an incorrect answer in
correct format.

[2 marks]

(b.iii) Write down the value of R for this model.

2

[1] 

Markscheme

0. 999 (0. 999431 …) A1

[1 mark]

(b.iv) Hence comment on the suitability of the model from (b)(ii) in comparison with the linear model found
in part (a). [2] 

Markscheme

comparing something to do with R and something to do with r

2
M1
 Note: Examples of where the M1 should be awarded:

2
R > r

R > r

0. 999 > 0. 755

2
0. 999 > 0. 755 (= 0. 563)

The “correlation coefficient” in the exponential model is larger.

Model B has a larger R 2

Examples of where the M1 should not be awarded:

The exponential model shows better correlation (since not clear how it is being measured)
Model 2 has a better fit
Model 2 is more correlated

an unambiguous comparison between R and r or R and r leading to the conclusion that the model in part (b) is
2 2

more suitable / better A1

Note: Condone candidates claiming that R is the “correlation coefficient” for the non-linear model.

[2 marks]

(b.v) By considering large values of t write down one criticism of the model found in (b)(ii).
[1] 

Markscheme

it suggests that there will be more infected computers than the entire population R1

Note: Accept any response that recognizes unlimited growth.

[1 mark]

(c) Use your answer from part (b)(ii) to estimate the time taken for the number of infected computers to
double. [2] 

Markscheme

1. 15e
0.292t
= 2. 3 OR 1. 15 × 1. 34
t
= 2. 3 OR t =
ln 2

0.292
OR using the model to find two specific times with
values of Q(t) which double M1
 t = 2. 37 (days) A1

Note: Do not FT from a model which is not exponential. Award M0A0 for an answer of 2. 13 which comes from using
(10, 20) from the data or any other answer which finds a doubling time from figures given in the table.

[2 marks]

The data above are taken from city X which is estimated to have 2. 6 million computers.
The analyst looks at data for another city, Y. These data indicate a value of β = 9. 64 × 10
−8
.

(d) Find in which city, X or Y, the computer virus is spreading more easily. Justify your answer using your
results from part (b). [3] 

Markscheme

an attempt to calculate β for city X (M1)

β =
0.292055…
6
OR β =
ln 1.33917…
6
2.6×10 2.6×10

= 1. 12328 … × 10
−7
A1

this is larger than 9. 64 × 10 −8

so the virus spreads more easily in city X R1

Note: It is possible to award M1A0R1.

Condone “so the virus spreads faster in city X” for the final R1.

[3 marks]

An estimate for Q′(t), t ≥ 5 , can be found by using the formula:

Q(t+5)−Q(t−5)
Q′(t) ≈
10
.

The following table shows estimates of Q′(t) for city X at different values of t.

(e) Determine the value of a and of b. Give your answers correct to one decimal place.
[2] 
 Markscheme

a = 38. 3, b = 3086. 1 A1A1

Note: Award A1A0 if values are correct but not to 1 dp.

[2 marks]

An improved model for Q(t), which is valid for large values of t, is the logistic differential equation

Q(t)
Q′(t) = kQ(t)(1 − )
L

where k and L are constants.

Q′(t)
Based on this differential equation, the graph of Q(t)
against Q(t) is predicted to be a straight line.

(f.i) Use linear regression to estimate the value of k and of L.

[5] 

Markscheme

(A1)(A1)
Q′ −6
= 0. 42228 − 2. 5561 × 10 Q
Q

Note: Award A1 for each coefficient seen – not necessarily in the equation. Do not penalize seeing in the context of
y and x.

identifying that the constant is k OR that the gradient is − k

L
(M1)

therefore k = 0. 422 (0. 422228 …) A1

k −6
= 2. 5561 × 10
L

L = 165000 (165205) A1

Note: Accept a value of L of 164843 from use of 3 sf value of k, or any other value from plausible pre-rounding.
Allow follow-through within the question part, from the equation of their line to the final two A1 marks.

[5 marks]

(f.ii) The solution to the differential equation is given by

L
Q(t) =
1+Ce −kt
 where C is a constant.

Using your answer to part (f )(i), estimate the percentage of computers in city X that are expected to [2] 
have been infected by the virus over a long period of time.

Markscheme

recognizing that their L is the eventual number of infected (M1)

165205…

2600000
= 6. 35% (6. 35403 … %) A1

Note: Accept any final answer consistent with their answer to part (f )(i) unless their L is less than 120146 in which
case award at most M1A0.

[2 marks]

17. [Maximum mark: 27] 22M.3.AHL.TZ1.2

This question is about a metropolitan area council planning a new town and the location of a new toxic waste
dump.

A metropolitan area in a country is modelled as a square. The area has four towns, located at the corners of the square.
All units are in kilometres with the x-coordinate representing the distance east and the y-coordinate representing the
distance north from the origin at (0, 0).

Edison is modelled as being positioned at E(0, 40).

Fermitown is modelled as being positioned at F(40, 40).
Gaussville is modelled as being positioned at G(40, 0).
Hamilton is modelled as being positioned at H(0, 0).

(a) The model assumes that each town is positioned at a single point. Describe possible circumstances in
which this modelling assumption is reasonable. [1] 

Markscheme

the size of each town is small (in comparison with the distance between the towns)
OR
if towns have an identifiable centre
OR
the centre of the town is at that point R1

Note: Accept a geographical landmark in place of “centre”, e.g. “town hall” or “capitol”.
 [1 mark]

(b) Sketch a Voronoi diagram showing the regions within the metropolitan area that are closest to each
town. [1] 

Markscheme

A1

Note: There is no need for a scale / coordinates here. Condone boundaries extending beyond the metropolitan
area.

[1 mark]

The metropolitan area council decides to build a new town called Isaacopolis located at I(30, 20).

A new Voronoi diagram is to be created to include Isaacopolis. The equation of the perpendicular bisector of [IE] is
y =
3

2
x +
15

2
.

(c.i) Find the equation of the perpendicular bisector of [IF].

[4] 

Markscheme

the gradient of IF is 40−20

40−30
= 2 (A1)

negative reciprocal of any gradient (M1)

gradient of perpendicular bisector = 1

Note: Seeing − (for example) used clearly as a gradient anywhere is evidence of the “negative reciprocal”
2

method despite being applied to an inappropriate gradient.

midpoint is ( 40+30

2
,
40+20

2
) = (35, 30) (A1)
 equation of perpendicular bisector is y − 30 = −
1

2
(x − 35) A1

Note: Accept equivalent forms e.g. y = −

1
2
x +
95
2
or 2y + x − 95 = 0 .
Allow FT for the final A1 from their midpoint and gradient of perpendicular bisector, as long as the M1 has been
awarded

[4 marks]

(c.ii) Given that the coordinates of one vertex of the new Voronoi diagram are (20, , find the
37. 5)

coordinates of the other two vertices within the metropolitan area. [4] 

Markscheme

the perpendicular bisector of EH is y = 20 (A1)

Note: Award this A1 if seen in the y-coordinate of any final answer or if 20 is used as the y-value in the equation of
any other perpendicular bisector.

attempt to use symmetry OR intersecting two perpendicular bisectors (M1)

(
25

3
, 20) A1

(20, 2. 5) A1

[4 marks]

(c.iii) Sketch this new Voronoi diagram showing the regions within the metropolitan area which are closest
to each town. [2] 

Markscheme
 M1A1

Note: Award M1 for exactly four perpendicular bisectors around I (IE, IF, IG and IH) seen, even if not in exactly
the right place.

Award A1 for a completely correct diagram. Scale / coordinates are NOT necessary. Vertices should be in
approximately the correct positions but only penalized if clearly wrong (condone northern and southern vertices
appearing to be very close to the boundary).

Condone the Voronoi diagram extending outside of the square.

Do not award follow-though marks in this part.

[2 marks]

The metropolitan area is divided into districts based on the Voronoi regions found in part (c).

(d) A car departs from a point due north of Hamilton. It travels due east at constant speed to a destination
point due North of Gaussville. It passes through the Edison, Isaacopolis and Fermitown districts. The car
spends 30% of the travel time in the Isaacopolis district.

Find the distance between Gaussville and the car’s destination point. [4] 

Markscheme

30% of 40 is 12 (A1)

recognizing line intersects bisectors at y = c (or equivalent) but different x-values (M1)

c =
3

2
x1 +
15

2
and c = −
1

2
x2 +
95

2
 finding an expression for the distance in Isaacopolis in terms of one variable (M1)

2c−15 8c
x 2 − x 1 = (95 − 2c) − = 100 −
3 3

equating their expression to 12

8c
100 − = 0. 3 × 40 = 12
3

c = 33

distance = 33 (km) A1

[4 marks]

A toxic waste dump needs to be located within the metropolitan area. The council wants to locate it as far as possible
from the nearest town.

(e.i) Find the location of the toxic waste dump, given that this location is not on the edge of the
metropolitan area. [4] 

Markscheme

must be a vertex (award if vertex given as a final answer) (R1)

attempt to calculate the distance of at least one town from a vertex (M1)

Note: This must be seen as a calculation or a value.

correct calculation of distances A1

65

3
OR 21. 7 AND √ 406. 25 OR 20. 2

(
25

3
, 20) A1

Note: Award R1M0A0A0 for a vertex written with no other supporting calculations.
Award R1M0A0A1 for correct vertex with no other supporting calculations.
The final A1 is not dependent on the previous A1. There is no follow-through for the final A1.

Do not accept an answer based on “uniqueness” in the question.

[4 marks]

(e.ii) Make one possible criticism of the council’s choice of location.

[1] 

Markscheme
M =

⎜⎟
For example, any one of the following:

decision does not take into account the different population densities

closer to a city will reduce travel time/help employees

it is closer to some cites than others

⎝
0
0

attempting M

attempting M

e.g.
1

last row/column of M

last row/column of M
3

4
0

0
0

locations that are directly connected.

(f.i)

M1

M1

4
0

= (3
1

= (10 12
⎠
R1

Note: Accept any correct reason that engages with the scenario.
Do not accept any answer to do with ethical issues about whether toxic waste should ever be dumped, or dumped
in a metropolitan area.

[1 mark]

The toxic waste dump, T, is connected to the towns via a system of sewers.

The connections are represented in the following matrix, M , where the order of rows and columns is (E, F, G, H, I, T
).

⎛
1 0 1 1 0 0
⎞

A leak occurs from the toxic waste dump and travels through the sewers. The pollution takes one day to travel between

The digit 1 in M represents a direct connection. The values of 1 in the leading diagonal of M mean that once a
location is polluted it will stay polluted.

Find which town is last to be polluted. Justify your answer.

Markscheme

METHOD 1

5 1 6

4 16
0 7)

1 18)
[3] 
 hence Isaacopolis is the last city to be polluted A1

Note: Do not award the A1 unless both M and M are considered.

3 4

Award M1M0A0 for a claim that the shortest distance is from T to I and that it is 4, without any support.

METHOD 2

attempting to translate M to a graph or a list of cities polluted on each day (M1)

correct graph or list A1

hence Isaacopolis is the last city to be polluted A1

Note: Award M1A1A1 for a clear description of the graph in words leading to the correct answer.

[3 marks]

(f.ii) Write down the number of days it takes for the pollution to reach the last town.
[1] 

Markscheme

it takes 4 days A1

[1 mark]

(f.iii) A sewer inspector needs to plan the shortest possible route through each of the connections between
different locations. Determine an appropriate start point and an appropriate end point of the
inspection route.

Note that the fact that each location is connected to itself does not correspond to a sewer that needs to
be inspected. [2] 

Markscheme

EITHER

the orders of the different vertices are:

 E 2

F 1

G 2

H 2

I 1

T 2 (A1)

Note: Accept a list where each order is 2 greater than listed above.

OR

a correct diagram/graph showing the connections between the locations (A1)

Note: Accept a diagram with loops at each vertex.

This mark should be awarded if candidate is clearly using their correct diagram from the previous part.

THEN

“Start at F and end at I” OR “Start at I and end at F” A1

Note: Award A1A0 for “it could start at either F or I”.

Award A1A1 for “IGEHTF” OR “FTHEGI”.
Award A1A1 for “F and I” OR “I and F”.

[2 marks]

18. [Maximum mark: 27] 22M.3.AHL.TZ1.2

This question is about a metropolitan area council planning a new town and the location of a new toxic waste
dump.

A metropolitan area in a country is modelled as a square. The area has four towns, located at the corners of the square.
All units are in kilometres with the x-coordinate representing the distance east and the y-coordinate representing the
distance north from the origin at (0, 0).

Edison is modelled as being positioned at E(0, 40).

Fermitown is modelled as being positioned at F(40, 40).
Gaussville is modelled as being positioned at G(40, 0).
Hamilton is modelled as being positioned at H(0, 0).

(a) The model assumes that each town is positioned at a single point. Describe possible circumstances in
which this modelling assumption is reasonable. [1] 
 Markscheme

the size of each town is small (in comparison with the distance between the towns)
OR
if towns have an identifiable centre
OR
the centre of the town is at that point R1

Note: Accept a geographical landmark in place of “centre”, e.g. “town hall” or “capitol”.

[1 mark]

(b) Sketch a Voronoi diagram showing the regions within the metropolitan area that are closest to each
town. [1] 

Markscheme

A1

Note: There is no need for a scale / coordinates here. Condone boundaries extending beyond the metropolitan
area.

[1 mark]

The metropolitan area council decides to build a new town called Isaacopolis located at I(30, 20).

A new Voronoi diagram is to be created to include Isaacopolis. The equation of the perpendicular bisector of [IE] is
y =
3

2
x +
15

2
.

(c.i) Find the equation of the perpendicular bisector of [IF].

[4] 

Markscheme
 the gradient of IF is 40−20

40−30
= 2 (A1)

negative reciprocal of any gradient (M1)

gradient of perpendicular bisector = 1

Note: Seeing − (for example) used clearly as a gradient anywhere is evidence of the “negative reciprocal”
2

method despite being applied to an inappropriate gradient.

midpoint is ( 40+30

2
,
40+20

2
) = (35, 30) (A1)

equation of perpendicular bisector is y − 30 = −

1

2
(x − 35) A1

Note: Accept equivalent forms e.g. y = − x + or 2y + x − 95 = 0.

1

2
95

Allow FT for the final A1 from their midpoint and gradient of perpendicular bisector, as long as the M1 has been
awarded

[4 marks]

(c.ii) Given that the coordinates of one vertex of the new Voronoi diagram are (20, , find the
37. 5)

coordinates of the other two vertices within the metropolitan area. [4] 

Markscheme

the perpendicular bisector of EH is y = 20 (A1)

Note: Award this A1 if seen in the y-coordinate of any final answer or if 20 is used as the y-value in the equation of
any other perpendicular bisector.

attempt to use symmetry OR intersecting two perpendicular bisectors (M1)

(
25

3
, 20) A1

(20, 2. 5) A1

[4 marks]

(c.iii) Sketch this new Voronoi diagram showing the regions within the metropolitan area which are closest
to each town. [2] 

Markscheme
 M1A1

Note: Award M1 for exactly four perpendicular bisectors around I (IE, IF, IG and IH) seen, even if not in exactly
the right place.

Award A1 for a completely correct diagram. Scale / coordinates are NOT necessary. Vertices should be in
approximately the correct positions but only penalized if clearly wrong (condone northern and southern vertices
appearing to be very close to the boundary).

Condone the Voronoi diagram extending outside of the square.

Do not award follow-though marks in this part.

[2 marks]

The metropolitan area is divided into districts based on the Voronoi regions found in part (c).

(d) A car departs from a point due north of Hamilton. It travels due east at constant speed to a destination
point due North of Gaussville. It passes through the Edison, Isaacopolis and Fermitown districts. The car
spends 30% of the travel time in the Isaacopolis district.

Find the distance between Gaussville and the car’s destination point. [4] 

Markscheme

30% of 40 is 12 (A1)

recognizing line intersects bisectors at y = c (or equivalent) but different x-values (M1)

c =
3

2
x1 +
15

2
and c = −
1

2
x2 +
95

2
 finding an expression for the distance in Isaacopolis in terms of one variable (M1)

2c−15 8c
x 2 − x 1 = (95 − 2c) − = 100 −
3 3

equating their expression to 12

8c
100 − = 0. 3 × 40 = 12
3

c = 33

distance = 33 (km) A1

[4 marks]

A toxic waste dump needs to be located within the metropolitan area. The council wants to locate it as far as possible
from the nearest town.

(e.i) Find the location of the toxic waste dump, given that this location is not on the edge of the
metropolitan area. [4] 

Markscheme

must be a vertex (award if vertex given as a final answer) (R1)

attempt to calculate the distance of at least one town from a vertex (M1)

Note: This must be seen as a calculation or a value.

correct calculation of distances A1

65

3
OR 21. 7 AND √ 406. 25 OR 20. 2

(
25

3
, 20) A1

Note: Award R1M0A0A0 for a vertex written with no other supporting calculations.
Award R1M0A0A1 for correct vertex with no other supporting calculations.
The final A1 is not dependent on the previous A1. There is no follow-through for the final A1.

Do not accept an answer based on “uniqueness” in the question.

[4 marks]

(e.ii) Make one possible criticism of the council’s choice of location.

[1] 

Markscheme
M =

⎜⎟
For example, any one of the following:

decision does not take into account the different population densities

closer to a city will reduce travel time/help employees

it is closer to some cites than others

⎝
0
0

attempting M

attempting M

e.g.
1

last row/column of M

last row/column of M
3

4
0

0
0

locations that are directly connected.

(f.i)

M1

M1

4
0

= (3
1

= (10 12
⎠
R1

Note: Accept any correct reason that engages with the scenario.
Do not accept any answer to do with ethical issues about whether toxic waste should ever be dumped, or dumped
in a metropolitan area.

[1 mark]

The toxic waste dump, T, is connected to the towns via a system of sewers.

The connections are represented in the following matrix, M , where the order of rows and columns is (E, F, G, H, I, T
).

⎛
1 0 1 1 0 0
⎞

A leak occurs from the toxic waste dump and travels through the sewers. The pollution takes one day to travel between

The digit 1 in M represents a direct connection. The values of 1 in the leading diagonal of M mean that once a
location is polluted it will stay polluted.

Find which town is last to be polluted. Justify your answer.

Markscheme

METHOD 1

5 1 6

4 16
0 7)

1 18)
[3] 
 hence Isaacopolis is the last city to be polluted A1

Note: Do not award the A1 unless both M and M are considered.

3 4

Award M1M0A0 for a claim that the shortest distance is from T to I and that it is 4, without any support.

METHOD 2

attempting to translate M to a graph or a list of cities polluted on each day (M1)

correct graph or list A1

hence Isaacopolis is the last city to be polluted A1

Note: Award M1A1A1 for a clear description of the graph in words leading to the correct answer.

[3 marks]

(f.ii) Write down the number of days it takes for the pollution to reach the last town.
[1] 

Markscheme

it takes 4 days A1

[1 mark]

(f.iii) A sewer inspector needs to plan the shortest possible route through each of the connections between
different locations. Determine an appropriate start point and an appropriate end point of the
inspection route.

Note that the fact that each location is connected to itself does not correspond to a sewer that needs to
be inspected. [2] 

Markscheme

EITHER

the orders of the different vertices are:

 E 2

F 1

G 2

H 2

I 1

T 2 (A1)

Note: Accept a list where each order is 2 greater than listed above.

OR

a correct diagram/graph showing the connections between the locations (A1)

Note: Accept a diagram with loops at each vertex.

This mark should be awarded if candidate is clearly using their correct diagram from the previous part.

THEN

“Start at F and end at I” OR “Start at I and end at F” A1

Note: Award A1A0 for “it could start at either F or I”.

Award A1A1 for “IGEHTF” OR “FTHEGI”.
Award A1A1 for “F and I” OR “I and F”.

[2 marks]

19. [Maximum mark: 28] 22M.3.AHL.TZ1.1

This question is about modelling the spread of a computer virus to predict the number of computers in a city
which will be infected by the virus.

A systems analyst defines the following variables in a model:

t is the number of days since the first computer was infected by the virus.
Q(t) is the total number of computers that have been infected up to and including day t.

The following data were collected:

(a.i) Find the equation of the regression line of Q(t) on t.

[2] 
 Markscheme

Q(t) = 3090t − 54000 (3094. 27 … t − 54042. 3 …) A1A1

Note: Award at most A1A0 if answer is not an equation. Award A1A0 for an answer including either x or y.

[2 marks]

(a.ii) Write down the value of r, Pearson’s product-moment correlation coefficient.

[1] 

Markscheme

0. 755 (0. 754741 …) A1

[1 mark]

(a.iii) Explain why it would not be appropriate to conduct a hypothesis test on the value of r found in (a)(ii).
[1] 

Markscheme

t is not a random variable OR it is not a (bivariate) normal distribution

OR data is not a sample from a population

OR data appears nonlinear

OR r only measures linear correlation R1

Note: Do not accept “r is not large enough”.

[1 mark]

A model for the early stage of the spread of the computer virus suggests that

Q′(t) = βN Q(t)

where N is the total number of computers in a city and β is a measure of how easily the virus is spreading between
computers. Both N and β are assumed to be constant.

(b.i) Find the general solution of the differential equation Q′(t) .

= βN Q(t)
[4] 
 Markscheme

attempt to separate variables (M1)

1
∫ d Q = ∫ βN d t
Q

ln|Q| = βN t + c A1A1A1

Note: Award A1 for LHS, A1 for βN t, and A1 for +c.

Award full marks for Q = e

βN t+c
OR Q = Ae
βN t
.

Award M1A1A1A0 for Q = e

βN t

[4 marks]

(b.ii) Using the data in the table write down the equation for an appropriate non-linear regression model.
[2] 

Markscheme

attempt at exponential regression (M1)

Q = 1. 15e
0.292t
(Q = 1. 14864 … e
0.292055…t
) A1

OR

attempt at exponential regression (M1)

Q = 1. 15 × 1. 34
t
(1. 14864 … × 1. 33917 … )
t
A1

Note: Condone answers involving y or x. Condone absence of “Q = ” Award M1A0 for an incorrect answer in
correct format.

[2 marks]

(b.iii) Write down the value of R for this model.

2

[1] 

Markscheme

0. 999 (0. 999431 …) A1

 [1 mark]

(b.iv) Hence comment on the suitability of the model from (b)(ii) in comparison with the linear model found
in part (a). [2] 

Markscheme

comparing something to do with R and something to do with r

2
M1

Note: Examples of where the M1 should be awarded:

2
R > r

R > r

0. 999 > 0. 755

2
0. 999 > 0. 755 (= 0. 563)

The “correlation coefficient” in the exponential model is larger.

Model B has a larger R 2

Examples of where the M1 should not be awarded:

The exponential model shows better correlation (since not clear how it is being measured)
Model 2 has a better fit
Model 2 is more correlated

an unambiguous comparison between R and r or R and r leading to the conclusion that the model in part (b) is
2 2

more suitable / better A1

Note: Condone candidates claiming that R is the “correlation coefficient” for the non-linear model.

[2 marks]

(b.v) By considering large values of t write down one criticism of the model found in (b)(ii).
[1] 

Markscheme

it suggests that there will be more infected computers than the entire population R1

Note: Accept any response that recognizes unlimited growth.

 [1 mark]

(c) Use your answer from part (b)(ii) to estimate the time taken for the number of infected computers to
double. [2] 

Markscheme

1. 15e
0.292t
= 2. 3 OR 1. 15 × 1. 34
t
= 2. 3 OR t =
ln 2

0.292
OR using the model to find two specific times with
values of Q(t) which double M1

t = 2. 37 (days) A1

Note: Do not FT from a model which is not exponential. Award M0A0 for an answer of 2. 13 which comes from using
(10, 20) from the data or any other answer which finds a doubling time from figures given in the table.

[2 marks]

The data above are taken from city X which is estimated to have 2. 6 million computers.
The analyst looks at data for another city, Y. These data indicate a value of β = 9. 64 × 10
−8
.

(d) Find in which city, X or Y, the computer virus is spreading more easily. Justify your answer using your
results from part (b). [3] 

Markscheme

an attempt to calculate β for city X (M1)

β =
0.292055…

2.6×10
6
OR β =
ln 1.33917…

2.6×10
6

= 1. 12328 … × 10
−7
A1

this is larger than 9. 64 × 10 −8

so the virus spreads more easily in city X R1

Note: It is possible to award M1A0R1.

Condone “so the virus spreads faster in city X” for the final R1.

[3 marks]

An estimate for Q′(t), t ≥ 5 , can be found by using the formula:

Q(t+5)−Q(t−5)
Q′(t) ≈
10
.
The following table shows estimates of Q′(t) for city X at different values of t.

(e) Determine the value of a and of b. Give your answers correct to one decimal place.
[2] 

Markscheme

a = 38. 3, b = 3086. 1 A1A1

Note: Award A1A0 if values are correct but not to 1 dp.

[2 marks]

An improved model for Q(t), which is valid for large values of t, is the logistic differential equation

Q(t)
Q′(t) = kQ(t)(1 − )
L

where k and L are constants.

Q′(t)
Based on this differential equation, the graph of Q(t)
against Q(t) is predicted to be a straight line.

(f.i) Use linear regression to estimate the value of k and of L.

[5] 

Markscheme

(A1)(A1)
Q′ −6
= 0. 42228 − 2. 5561 × 10 Q
Q

Note: Award A1 for each coefficient seen – not necessarily in the equation. Do not penalize seeing in the context of
y and x.

identifying that the constant is k OR that the gradient is − k

L
(M1)

therefore k = 0. 422 (0. 422228 …) A1

k −6
= 2. 5561 × 10
L

L = 165000 (165205) A1

Note: Accept a value of L of 164843 from use of 3 sf value of k, or any other value from plausible pre-rounding.
Allow follow-through within the question part, from the equation of their line to the final two A1 marks.
 [5 marks]

(f.ii) The solution to the differential equation is given by

L
Q(t) =
1+Ce −kt

where C is a constant.

Using your answer to part (f )(i), estimate the percentage of computers in city X that are expected to
have been infected by the virus over a long period of time. [2] 

Markscheme

recognizing that their L is the eventual number of infected (M1)

165205…

2600000
= 6. 35% (6. 35403 … %) A1

Note: Accept any final answer consistent with their answer to part (f )(i) unless their L is less than 120146 in which
case award at most M1A0.

[2 marks]

20. [Maximum mark: 28] 22M.3.AHL.TZ2.2

This question compares possible designs for a new computer network between multiple school buildings, and
whether they meet specific requirements.

A school’s administration team decides to install new fibre-optic internet cables underground. The school has eight
buildings that need to be connected by these cables. A map of the school is shown below, with the internet access point
of each building labelled A–H.

Jonas is planning where to install the underground cables. He begins by determining the distances, in metres, between
the underground access points in each of the buildings.
He finds AD ,
= 89. 2 m DF = 104. 9 m and AD̂F = 83° .
(a) Find AF.
[3] 

Markscheme

(M1)(A1)
2 2 2
AF = 89. 2 + 104. 9 − 2(89. 2)(104. 9) cos 83

Note: Award (M1) for substitution into the cosine rule and (A1) for correct substitution.

AF = 129 m (129. 150 …) A1

[3 marks]

The cost for installing the cable directly between A and F is $21 310.

(b) Find the cost per metre of installing this cable.

[2] 

Markscheme

21310 ÷ 129. 150 … (M1)

$165 A1

[2 marks]

Jonas estimates that it will cost $110 per metre to install the cables between all the other buildings.

(c) State why the cost for installing the cable between A and F would be higher than between the other
buildings. [1] 

Markscheme

any reasonable statement referring to the lake R1

(eg. there is a lake between A and F, the cables would need to be installed under/over/around the lake, special
waterproof cables are needed for lake, etc.)

[1 mark]
Jonas creates the following graph, S , using the cost of installing the cables between two buildings as the weight of
each edge.

The computer network could be designed such that each building is directly connected to at least one other building
and hence all buildings are indirectly connected.

(d.i) By using Kruskal’s algorithm, find the minimum spanning tree for S , showing clearly the order in which
edges are added. [3] 

Markscheme

edges (or weights) are chosen in the order

CE (8239)

DG (8668)

BD (8778)

AB (8811)

DE (8833)

EH (9251)

DF (11 539) A1A1A1

Note: Award A1 for the first two edges chosen in the correct order. Award A1A1 for the first six edges chosen in the
correct order. Award A1A1A1 for all seven edges chosen in the correct order. Accept a diagram as an answer,
 provided the order of edges is communicated.

[3 marks]

(d.ii) Hence find the minimum installation cost for the cables that would allow all the buildings to be part of
the computer network. [2] 

Markscheme

Finding the sum of the weights of their edges (M1)

8239 + 8668 + 8778 + 8811 + 8833 + 9251 + 11539

total cost = $64119 A1

[2 marks]

The computer network fails if any part of it becomes unreachable from any other part. To help protect the network from
failing, every building could be connected to at least two other buildings. In this way if one connection breaks, the
building is still part of the computer network. Jonas can achieve this by finding a Hamiltonian cycle within the graph.

(e) State why a path that forms a Hamiltonian cycle does not always form an Eulerian circuit.
[1] 

Markscheme

a Hamiltonian cycle is not always an Eulerian circuit as it does not have to include all edges of the graph (only all
vertices) R1

[1 mark]

(f ) Starting at D, use the nearest neighbour algorithm to find the upper bound for the installation cost of
a computer network in the form of a Hamiltonian cycle.

Note: Although the graph is not complete, in this instance it is not necessary to form a table of least
distances. [5] 

Markscheme

edges (or weights) are chosen in the order

DG (8668)

GH (9603)

HE (9251)

EC (8239)
 CB (13 156)

BA (8811)

AF (21 310)

FD (11 539) A1A1A1

Note: Award A1 for the first two edges chosen in the correct order. Award A1A1 for the first five edges chosen in the
correct order. Award A1A1A1 for all eight edges chosen in the correct order. Accept a diagram as an answer, provided
the order of edges is communicated.

finding the sum of the weights of their edges (M1)

8668 + 9603 + 9251 + 8239 + 13156 + 8811 + 21310 + 11539

upper bound = $90 577 A1

[5 marks]

(g) By deleting D, use the deleted vertex algorithm to find the lower bound for the installation cost of the
cycle. [6] 

Markscheme

attempt to find MST after deleting vertex D (M1)

these edges (or weights) (in any order)

CE (8239)

AB (8811)

EH (9251)

GH (9603)

BE (10 153)

FG (12 606) A1

Note: Prim’s or Kruskal’s algorithm could be used at this stage.

 reconnect D to MST with two different edges (M1)

DG (8668)

BD (8778) A1

Note: This A1 is independent of the first A mark and can be awarded if both DG and BD are chosen to reconnect D
to the MST, even if the MST is incorrect.

finding the sum of the weights of their edges (M1)

8239 + 8811 + 9251 + 9603 + 10153 + 12606 + 8668 + 8778

Note: For candidates with an incorrect MST or no MST, the weights of at least seven of the edges being summed
(two of which must connect to D) must be shown to award this (M1).

lower bound = $76 109 A1

[6 marks]

After more research, Jonas decides to install the cables as shown in the diagram below.
Each individual cable is installed such that each end of the cable is connected to a building’s access point. The
connection between each end of a cable and an access point has a 1. 4% probability of failing after a power surge.

For the network to be successful, each building in the network must be able to communicate with every other building
in the network. In other words, there must be a path that connects any two buildings in the network. Jonas would like
the network to have less than a 2% probability of failing to operate after a power surge.
(h) Show that Jonas’s network satisfies the requirement of there being less than a 2% probability of the
network failing after a power surge. [5] 

Markscheme

METHOD 1

recognition of a binomial distribution (M1)

X~B(2, 0. 014)

finding the probability that a cable fails (at least one of its connections fails)
P(X > 0) = 0. 027804 OR 1 − P(X = 0) = 0. 027804 A1

recognition that two cables must fail for the network to go offline M1

recognition of binomial distribution for network, Y ~B(8, 0. 027804) (M1)

P(Y ≥ 2) = 0. 0194 (0. 0193602 …) OR 1 − P(Y < 2) = 0. 0194 (0. 0193602 …) A1

therefore, the diagram satisfies the requirement since 1. 94% < 2% AG

Note: Evidence of binomial distribution may be seen as combinations.

METHOD 2

recognition of a binomial distribution (M1)

X~B(16, 0. 014)

finding the probability that at least two connections fail

P(X ≥ 2) = 0. 0206473 … OR 1 − P(X < 2) = 0. 0206473 … A1
recognition that the previous answer is an overestimate M1

finding probability of two ends of the same cable failing, F ~B(2, 0. 014) ,
and the ends of the other 14 cables not failing, S~B(14, 0. 014)
P(F = 2) × P(S = 0) = 0. 0000160891 … (A1)

0. 0000160891 … × 8 = 0. 00128713. . .

0. 0206473 … − 0. 00128713 … = 0. 0194 (0. 0193602 …) A1

therefore, the diagram satisfies the requirement since 1. 94% < 2% AG

METHOD 3

recognition of a binomial distribution M1

X~B(16, 0. 014)

finding the probability that the network remains secure if 0 or 1 connections fail or if 2 connections fail provided
that the second failed connection occurs at the other end of the cable with the first failure (M1)

P (remains secure) = P(X ≤ 1) +

1

15
× P(X = 2) A1

= 0. 9806397625 A1

P (network fails) = 1 − 0. 9806397625 = 0. 0194 (0. 0193602 …) A1

therefore, the diagram satisfies the requirement since 1. 94% < 2% AG

METHOD 4

P (network failing)

= 1 − P(0 connections f ailing) − P(1 connection f ailing) − P(2 connections on the same cable f ailing)

M1

= 1 − 0. 986
16
− 16C 1 × 0. 014 × 0. 986
15
− 8C 1 × 0. 014
2
× 0. 986
14
A1A1A1

Note: Award A1 for each of 2nd, 3rd and last terms.

= 0. 0194 (0. 0193602 …) A1

therefore, the diagram satisfies the requirement since 1. 94% < 2% AG

[5 marks]
21. [Maximum mark: 27] 22M.3.AHL.TZ2.1
This question uses statistical tests to investigate whether advertising leads to increased profits for a grocery store.

Aimmika is the manager of a grocery store in Nong Khai. She is carrying out a statistical analysis on the number of bags
of rice that are sold in the store each day. She collects the following sample data by recording how many bags of rice
the store sells each day over a period of 90 days.

She believes that her data follows a Poisson distribution.

(a.i) Find the mean and variance for the sample data given in the table.
[2] 

Markscheme

mean = 4. 23 (4. 23333 …) A1

variance = 4. 27 (4. 26777 …) A1

[2 marks]

(a.ii) Hence state why Aimmika believes her data follows a Poisson distribution.
[1] 

Markscheme

mean is close to the variance A1

[1 mark]

(b) State one assumption that Aimmika needs to make about the sales of bags of rice to support her belief
that it follows a Poisson distribution. [1] 

Markscheme

One of the following:

the number of bags sold each day is independent of any other day

the sale of one bag is independent of any other bag sold

the sales of bags of rice (each day) occur at a constant mean rate A1
 Note: Award A1 for a correct answer in context. Any statement referring to independence must refer to either the
independence of each bag sold or the independence of the number of bags sold each day. If the third option is
seen, the statement must refer to a “constant mean” or “constant average”. Do not accept “the number of bags sold
each day is constant”.

[1 mark]

Aimmika knows from her historic sales records that the store sells an average of 4. 2 bags of rice each day. The following
table shows the expected frequency of bags of rice sold each day during the 90 day period, assuming a Poisson
distribution with mean 4. 2.

(c) Find the value of a, of b, and of c. Give your answers to 3 decimal places.
[5] 

Markscheme

attempt to find Poisson probabilities and multiply by 90 (M1)

a = 7. 018 A1

b = 17. 498 A1

EITHER

90 × P(X ≥ 8) = 90 × (1 − P(X ≤ 7)) (M1)

c = 5. 755 A1

OR

90 − 7. 018 − 11. 903 − 16. 665 − 17. 498 − 14. 698 − 10. 289 − 6. 173 (M1)

c = 5. 756 A1

Note: Do not penalize the omission of clear a, b and c labelling as this will be penalized later if correct values are
interchanged.
 [5 marks]

Aimmika decides to carry out a χ goodness of fit test at the 5% significance level to see whether the data follows a
2

Poisson distribution with mean 4. 2.

(d.i) Write down the number of degrees of freedom for her test.
[1] 

Markscheme

7 A1

[1 mark]

(d.ii) Perform the χ goodness of fit test and state, with reason, a conclusion.
2

[7] 

Markscheme

H0 : The number of bags of rice sold each day follows a Poisson distribution with mean 4. 2. A1

H1 : The number of bags of rice sold each day does not follow a Poisson distribution with mean 4. 2. A1

Note: Award A1A1 for both hypotheses correctly stated and in correct order. Award A1A0 if reference to the data
and/or “mean 4. 2” is not included in the hypotheses, but otherwise correct.

evidence of attempting to group data to obtain the observed frequencies for ≤ 1 and ≥ 8 (M1)

p -value = 0. 728 (0. 728100 …) A2

0. 728 (0. 728100 …) > 0. 05 R1

the result is not significant so there is no reason to reject H (the number of bags sold each day follows a Poisson
0

distribution) A1

Note: Do not award R0A1. The conclusion MUST follow through from their hypotheses. If no hypotheses are stated,
the final A1 can still be awarded for a correct conclusion as long as it is in context (e.g. therefore the data follows a
Poisson distribution).

[7 marks]

Aimmika claims that advertising in a local newspaper for 300 Thai Baht (THB) per day will increase the number of
bags of rice sold. However, Nichakarn, the owner of the store, claims that the advertising will not increase the store’s
overall profit.

Nichakarn agrees to advertise in the newspaper for the next 60 days. During that time, Aimmika records that the store
sells 282 bags of rice with a profit of 495 THB on each bag sold.
Aimmika wants to carry out an appropriate hypothesis test to determine whether the number of bags of rice sold during
the 60 days increased when compared with the historic sales records.

(e.i) By finding a critical value, perform this test at a 5 % significance level.

[6] 

Markscheme

METHOD 1

evidence of multiplying 4. 2 × 60 (seen anywhere) M1

H 0 : μ = 252

H 1 : μ > 252 A1

Note: Accept H 0 : μ = 4. 2 and H 1 : μ > 4. 2 for the A1.

evidence of finding probabilities around critical region (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for any of these values seen:

P(X ≥ 277) = 0. 0630518 … OR P(X ≤ 276) = 0. 936948 …

P(X ≥ 278) = 0. 0558415 … OR P(X ≤ 277) = 0. 944158 …

P(X ≥ 279) = 0. 0493055 … OR P(X ≤ 278) = 0. 950694 …

critical value = 279 A1

282 ≥ 279 , R1

the null hypothesis is rejected A1

(the advertising increased the number of bags sold during the 60 days)

Note: Do not award R0A1. Accept statements referring to the advertising being effective for A1 as long as the R mark
is satisfied. For the R1A1, follow through within the part from their critical value.

METHOD 2

evidence of dividing 282 by 60 (or 4. 7 seen anywhere) M1

H 0 : μ = 4. 2
 H 1 : μ > 4. 2 A1

attempt to find critical value using central limit theorem (M1)

(e.g. sample standard deviation = √

4.2

60
, X ~N (4. 2, √
4.2

60
) , etc.)

Note: Award (M1) for a p-value of 0. 0293907 … seen.

critical value = 4. 63518 … A1

4. 7 > 4. 63518 … R1

the null hypothesis is rejected A1

(the advertising increased the number of bags sold during the 60 days)

Note: Do not award R0A1. Accept statements referring to the advertising being effective for A1 as long as the R mark
is satisfied. For the R1A1, follow through within the part from their critical value.

[6 marks]

(e.ii) Hence state the probability of a Type I error for this test.
[1] 

Markscheme

(P(X ≥ 279 μ = 252) =) 0. 0493 (0. 0493055 …) A1

Note: If a candidate uses METHOD 2 in part (e)(i), allow an FT answer of 0. 05 for this part but only if the candidate
has attempted to find a p-value.

[1 mark]

(f ) By considering the claims of both Aimmika and Nichakarn, explain whether the advertising was
beneficial to the store. [3] 

Markscheme

attempt to compare profit difference with cost of advertising (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for evidence of candidate mathematically comparing a profit difference with the cost of the
advertising.
 EITHER

(comparing profit from 30 extra bags of rice with cost of advertising)

14850 < 18000 A1

OR

(comparing total profit with and without advertising)

121590 < 124740 A1

OR

(comparing increase of average daily profit with daily advertising cost)

247. 50 < 300 A1

THEN

EITHER

Even though the number of bags of rice increased, the advertising is not worth it as the overall profit did not
increase. R1

OR

The advertising is worth it even though the cost is less than the increased profit, since the number of customers
increased (possibly buying other products and/or returning in the future after advertising stops) R1

Note: Follow through within the part for correct reasoning consistent with their comparison.

[3 marks]

22. [Maximum mark: 28] 22M.3.AHL.TZ2.2

This question compares possible designs for a new computer network between multiple school buildings, and
whether they meet specific requirements.

A school’s administration team decides to install new fibre-optic internet cables underground. The school has eight
buildings that need to be connected by these cables. A map of the school is shown below, with the internet access point
of each building labelled A–H.
Jonas is planning where to install the underground cables. He begins by determining the distances, in metres, between
the underground access points in each of the buildings.

He finds AD ,
= 89. 2 m DF = 104. 9 m and AD̂F = 83° .
(a) Find AF.
[3] 

Markscheme

(M1)(A1)
2 2 2
AF = 89. 2 + 104. 9 − 2(89. 2)(104. 9) cos 83

Note: Award (M1) for substitution into the cosine rule and (A1) for correct substitution.

AF = 129 m (129. 150 …) A1

[3 marks]

The cost for installing the cable directly between A and F is $21 310.

(b) Find the cost per metre of installing this cable.

[2] 

Markscheme

21310 ÷ 129. 150 … (M1)

$165 A1

[2 marks]

Jonas estimates that it will cost $110 per metre to install the cables between all the other buildings.

(c) State why the cost for installing the cable between A and F would be higher than between the other
buildings. [1] 
 Markscheme

any reasonable statement referring to the lake R1

(eg. there is a lake between A and F, the cables would need to be installed under/over/around the lake, special
waterproof cables are needed for lake, etc.)

[1 mark]

Jonas creates the following graph, S , using the cost of installing the cables between two buildings as the weight of
each edge.

The computer network could be designed such that each building is directly connected to at least one other building
and hence all buildings are indirectly connected.

(d.i) By using Kruskal’s algorithm, find the minimum spanning tree for S , showing clearly the order in which
edges are added. [3] 

Markscheme

edges (or weights) are chosen in the order

CE (8239)

DG (8668)

BD (8778)

AB (8811)

DE (8833)

EH (9251)

DF (11 539) A1A1A1

 Note: Award A1 for the first two edges chosen in the correct order. Award A1A1 for the first six edges chosen in the
correct order. Award A1A1A1 for all seven edges chosen in the correct order. Accept a diagram as an answer,
provided the order of edges is communicated.

[3 marks]

(d.ii) Hence find the minimum installation cost for the cables that would allow all the buildings to be part of
the computer network. [2] 

Markscheme

Finding the sum of the weights of their edges (M1)

8239 + 8668 + 8778 + 8811 + 8833 + 9251 + 11539

total cost = $64119 A1

[2 marks]

The computer network fails if any part of it becomes unreachable from any other part. To help protect the network from
failing, every building could be connected to at least two other buildings. In this way if one connection breaks, the
building is still part of the computer network. Jonas can achieve this by finding a Hamiltonian cycle within the graph.

(e) State why a path that forms a Hamiltonian cycle does not always form an Eulerian circuit.
[1] 

Markscheme

a Hamiltonian cycle is not always an Eulerian circuit as it does not have to include all edges of the graph (only all
vertices) R1

[1 mark]
(f ) Starting at D, use the nearest neighbour algorithm to find the upper bound for the installation cost of
a computer network in the form of a Hamiltonian cycle.

Note: Although the graph is not complete, in this instance it is not necessary to form a table of least
distances. [5] 

Markscheme

edges (or weights) are chosen in the order

DG (8668)

GH (9603)

HE (9251)

EC (8239)

CB (13 156)

BA (8811)

AF (21 310)

FD (11 539) A1A1A1

Note: Award A1 for the first two edges chosen in the correct order. Award A1A1 for the first five edges chosen in the
correct order. Award A1A1A1 for all eight edges chosen in the correct order. Accept a diagram as an answer, provided
the order of edges is communicated.

finding the sum of the weights of their edges (M1)

8668 + 9603 + 9251 + 8239 + 13156 + 8811 + 21310 + 11539

upper bound = $90 577 A1

[5 marks]

(g) By deleting D, use the deleted vertex algorithm to find the lower bound for the installation cost of the
cycle. [6] 

Markscheme
 attempt to find MST after deleting vertex D (M1)
these edges (or weights) (in any order)

CE (8239)

AB (8811)

EH (9251)

GH (9603)

BE (10 153)

FG (12 606) A1

Note: Prim’s or Kruskal’s algorithm could be used at this stage.

reconnect D to MST with two different edges (M1)

DG (8668)

BD (8778) A1

Note: This A1 is independent of the first A mark and can be awarded if both DG and BD are chosen to reconnect D
to the MST, even if the MST is incorrect.

finding the sum of the weights of their edges (M1)

8239 + 8811 + 9251 + 9603 + 10153 + 12606 + 8668 + 8778

Note: For candidates with an incorrect MST or no MST, the weights of at least seven of the edges being summed
(two of which must connect to D) must be shown to award this (M1).

lower bound = $76 109 A1

[6 marks]

After more research, Jonas decides to install the cables as shown in the diagram below.
Each individual cable is installed such that each end of the cable is connected to a building’s access point. The
connection between each end of a cable and an access point has a 1. 4% probability of failing after a power surge.

For the network to be successful, each building in the network must be able to communicate with every other building
in the network. In other words, there must be a path that connects any two buildings in the network. Jonas would like
the network to have less than a 2% probability of failing to operate after a power surge.
(h) Show that Jonas’s network satisfies the requirement of there being less than a 2% probability of the
network failing after a power surge. [5] 

Markscheme

METHOD 1

recognition of a binomial distribution (M1)

X~B(2, 0. 014)

finding the probability that a cable fails (at least one of its connections fails)
P(X > 0) = 0. 027804 OR 1 − P(X = 0) = 0. 027804 A1

recognition that two cables must fail for the network to go offline M1

recognition of binomial distribution for network, Y ~B(8, 0. 027804) (M1)

P(Y ≥ 2) = 0. 0194 (0. 0193602 …) OR 1 − P(Y < 2) = 0. 0194 (0. 0193602 …) A1

therefore, the diagram satisfies the requirement since 1. 94% < 2% AG

Note: Evidence of binomial distribution may be seen as combinations.

METHOD 2

recognition of a binomial distribution (M1)

X~B(16, 0. 014)

finding the probability that at least two connections fail

P(X ≥ 2) = 0. 0206473 … OR 1 − P(X < 2) = 0. 0206473 … A1
recognition that the previous answer is an overestimate M1

finding probability of two ends of the same cable failing, F ~B(2, 0. 014) ,
and the ends of the other 14 cables not failing, S~B(14, 0. 014)
P(F = 2) × P(S = 0) = 0. 0000160891 … (A1)

0. 0000160891 … × 8 = 0. 00128713. . .

0. 0206473 … − 0. 00128713 … = 0. 0194 (0. 0193602 …) A1

therefore, the diagram satisfies the requirement since 1. 94% < 2% AG

METHOD 3

recognition of a binomial distribution M1

X~B(16, 0. 014)

finding the probability that the network remains secure if 0 or 1 connections fail or if 2 connections fail provided
that the second failed connection occurs at the other end of the cable with the first failure (M1)

P (remains secure) = P(X ≤ 1) +

1

15
× P(X = 2) A1

= 0. 9806397625 A1

P (network fails) = 1 − 0. 9806397625 = 0. 0194 (0. 0193602 …) A1

therefore, the diagram satisfies the requirement since 1. 94% < 2% AG

METHOD 4

P (network failing)

= 1 − P(0 connections f ailing) − P(1 connection f ailing) − P(2 connections on the same cable f ailing)

M1

= 1 − 0. 986
16
− 16C 1 × 0. 014 × 0. 986
15
− 8C 1 × 0. 014
2
× 0. 986
14
A1A1A1

Note: Award A1 for each of 2nd, 3rd and last terms.

= 0. 0194 (0. 0193602 …) A1

therefore, the diagram satisfies the requirement since 1. 94% < 2% AG

[5 marks]
23. [Maximum mark: 27] 22M.3.AHL.TZ2.1
This question uses statistical tests to investigate whether advertising leads to increased profits for a grocery store.

Aimmika is the manager of a grocery store in Nong Khai. She is carrying out a statistical analysis on the number of bags
of rice that are sold in the store each day. She collects the following sample data by recording how many bags of rice
the store sells each day over a period of 90 days.

She believes that her data follows a Poisson distribution.

(a.i) Find the mean and variance for the sample data given in the table.
[2] 

Markscheme

mean = 4. 23 (4. 23333 …) A1

variance = 4. 27 (4. 26777 …) A1

[2 marks]

(a.ii) Hence state why Aimmika believes her data follows a Poisson distribution.
[1] 

Markscheme

mean is close to the variance A1

[1 mark]

(b) State one assumption that Aimmika needs to make about the sales of bags of rice to support her belief
that it follows a Poisson distribution. [1] 

Markscheme

One of the following:

the number of bags sold each day is independent of any other day

the sale of one bag is independent of any other bag sold

the sales of bags of rice (each day) occur at a constant mean rate A1
 Note: Award A1 for a correct answer in context. Any statement referring to independence must refer to either the
independence of each bag sold or the independence of the number of bags sold each day. If the third option is
seen, the statement must refer to a “constant mean” or “constant average”. Do not accept “the number of bags sold
each day is constant”.

[1 mark]

Aimmika knows from her historic sales records that the store sells an average of 4. 2 bags of rice each day. The following
table shows the expected frequency of bags of rice sold each day during the 90 day period, assuming a Poisson
distribution with mean 4. 2.

(c) Find the value of a, of b, and of c. Give your answers to 3 decimal places.
[5] 

Markscheme

attempt to find Poisson probabilities and multiply by 90 (M1)

a = 7. 018 A1

b = 17. 498 A1

EITHER

90 × P(X ≥ 8) = 90 × (1 − P(X ≤ 7)) (M1)

c = 5. 755 A1

OR

90 − 7. 018 − 11. 903 − 16. 665 − 17. 498 − 14. 698 − 10. 289 − 6. 173 (M1)

c = 5. 756 A1

Note: Do not penalize the omission of clear a, b and c labelling as this will be penalized later if correct values are
interchanged.
 [5 marks]

Aimmika decides to carry out a χ goodness of fit test at the 5% significance level to see whether the data follows a
2

Poisson distribution with mean 4. 2.

(d.i) Write down the number of degrees of freedom for her test.
[1] 

Markscheme

7 A1

[1 mark]

(d.ii) Perform the χ goodness of fit test and state, with reason, a conclusion.
2

[7] 

Markscheme

H0 : The number of bags of rice sold each day follows a Poisson distribution with mean 4. 2. A1

H1 : The number of bags of rice sold each day does not follow a Poisson distribution with mean 4. 2. A1

Note: Award A1A1 for both hypotheses correctly stated and in correct order. Award A1A0 if reference to the data
and/or “mean 4. 2” is not included in the hypotheses, but otherwise correct.

evidence of attempting to group data to obtain the observed frequencies for ≤ 1 and ≥ 8 (M1)

p -value = 0. 728 (0. 728100 …) A2

0. 728 (0. 728100 …) > 0. 05 R1

the result is not significant so there is no reason to reject H (the number of bags sold each day follows a Poisson
0

distribution) A1

Note: Do not award R0A1. The conclusion MUST follow through from their hypotheses. If no hypotheses are stated,
the final A1 can still be awarded for a correct conclusion as long as it is in context (e.g. therefore the data follows a
Poisson distribution).

[7 marks]

Aimmika claims that advertising in a local newspaper for 300 Thai Baht (THB) per day will increase the number of
bags of rice sold. However, Nichakarn, the owner of the store, claims that the advertising will not increase the store’s
overall profit.

Nichakarn agrees to advertise in the newspaper for the next 60 days. During that time, Aimmika records that the store
sells 282 bags of rice with a profit of 495 THB on each bag sold.
Aimmika wants to carry out an appropriate hypothesis test to determine whether the number of bags of rice sold during
the 60 days increased when compared with the historic sales records.

(e.i) By finding a critical value, perform this test at a 5 % significance level.

[6] 

Markscheme

METHOD 1

evidence of multiplying 4. 2 × 60 (seen anywhere) M1

H 0 : μ = 252

H 1 : μ > 252 A1

Note: Accept H 0 : μ = 4. 2 and H 1 : μ > 4. 2 for the A1.

evidence of finding probabilities around critical region (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for any of these values seen:

P(X ≥ 277) = 0. 0630518 … OR P(X ≤ 276) = 0. 936948 …

P(X ≥ 278) = 0. 0558415 … OR P(X ≤ 277) = 0. 944158 …

P(X ≥ 279) = 0. 0493055 … OR P(X ≤ 278) = 0. 950694 …

critical value = 279 A1

282 ≥ 279 , R1

the null hypothesis is rejected A1

(the advertising increased the number of bags sold during the 60 days)

Note: Do not award R0A1. Accept statements referring to the advertising being effective for A1 as long as the R mark
is satisfied. For the R1A1, follow through within the part from their critical value.

METHOD 2

evidence of dividing 282 by 60 (or 4. 7 seen anywhere) M1

H 0 : μ = 4. 2
 H 1 : μ > 4. 2 A1

attempt to find critical value using central limit theorem (M1)

(e.g. sample standard deviation = √

4.2

60
, X ~N (4. 2, √
4.2

60
) , etc.)

Note: Award (M1) for a p-value of 0. 0293907 … seen.

critical value = 4. 63518 … A1

4. 7 > 4. 63518 … R1

the null hypothesis is rejected A1

(the advertising increased the number of bags sold during the 60 days)

Note: Do not award R0A1. Accept statements referring to the advertising being effective for A1 as long as the R mark
is satisfied. For the R1A1, follow through within the part from their critical value.

[6 marks]

(e.ii) Hence state the probability of a Type I error for this test.
[1] 

Markscheme

(P(X ≥ 279 μ = 252) =) 0. 0493 (0. 0493055 …) A1

Note: If a candidate uses METHOD 2 in part (e)(i), allow an FT answer of 0. 05 for this part but only if the candidate
has attempted to find a p-value.

[1 mark]

(f ) By considering the claims of both Aimmika and Nichakarn, explain whether the advertising was
beneficial to the store. [3] 

Markscheme

attempt to compare profit difference with cost of advertising (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for evidence of candidate mathematically comparing a profit difference with the cost of the
advertising.
 EITHER

(comparing profit from 30 extra bags of rice with cost of advertising)

14850 < 18000 A1

OR

(comparing total profit with and without advertising)

121590 < 124740 A1

OR

(comparing increase of average daily profit with daily advertising cost)

247. 50 < 300 A1

THEN

EITHER

Even though the number of bags of rice increased, the advertising is not worth it as the overall profit did not
increase. R1

OR

The advertising is worth it even though the cost is less than the increased profit, since the number of customers
increased (possibly buying other products and/or returning in the future after advertising stops) R1

Note: Follow through within the part for correct reasoning consistent with their comparison.

[3 marks]

24. [Maximum mark: 27] SPM.3.AHL.TZ0.1

Two IB schools, A and B, follow the IB Diploma Programme but have different teaching methods. A research group
tested whether the different teaching methods lead to a similar final result.

For the test, a group of eight students were randomly selected from each school. Both samples were given a
standardized test at the start of the course and a prediction for total IB points was made based on that test; this was then
compared to their points total at the end of the course.

Previous results indicate that both the predictions from the standardized tests and the final IB points can be modelled
by a normal distribution.

It can be assumed that:

 the standardized test is a valid method for predicting the final IB points
that variations from the prediction can be explained through the circumstances of the student or school.
(a) Identify a test that might have been used to verify the null hypothesis that the predictions from the
standardized test can be modelled by a normal distribution. [1]

Markscheme

χ
2
(goodness of fit) A1

[1 mark]

(b) State why comparing only the final IB points of the students from the two schools would not be a valid
test for the effectiveness of the two different teaching methods. [1]

Markscheme

EITHER

because aim is to measure improvement

OR

because the students may be of different ability in the two schools R1

[1 mark]

The data for school A is shown in the following table.

For each student, the change from the predicted points to the final points (f − p) was calculated.

(c.i) Find the mean change. [1]

 Markscheme

0.1875 (accept 0.188, 0.19) A1

[1 mark]

(c.ii) Find the standard deviation of the changes. [2]

Markscheme

2.46 (M1)A1

Note: Award (M1)A0 for 2.63.

[2 marks]

(d) Use a paired t-test to determine whether there is significant evidence that the students in school A
have improved their IB points since the start of the course. [4]

Markscheme

H0 : there has been no improvement

H1 : there has been an improvement A1

attempt at a one-tailed paired t-test (M1)

p -value = 0.423 A1

there is no significant evidence that the students have improved R1

Note: If the hypotheses are not stated award a maximum of A0M1A1R0.

[4 marks]

The data for school B is shown in the following table.

(e.i) Use an appropriate test to determine whether there is evidence, at the 5 % significance level, that the
students in school B have improved more than those in school A. [5]

Markscheme

H0 : there is no difference between the schools

H1 : school B did better than school A A1

one-tailed 2 sample t-test (M1)

p -value = 0.0984 A1

0.0984 > 0.05 (not significant at the 5 % level) so do not reject the null hypothesis R1A1

Note: The final A1 cannot be awarded following an incorrect reason. The final R1A1 can follow through from their
incorrect p-value. Award a maximum of A1(M1)A0R1A1 for p-value = 0.0993.

[5 marks]

(e.ii) State why it was important to test that both sets of points were normally distributed. [1]

Markscheme

sample too small for the central limit theorem to apply (and t-tests assume normal distribution) R1

[1 mark]

School A also gives each student a score for effort in each subject. This effort score is based on a scale of 1 to 5 where 5 is
regarded as outstanding effort.
It is claimed that the effort put in by a student is an important factor in improving upon their predicted IB points.
(f.i) Perform a test on the data from school A to show it is reasonable to assume a linear relationship
between effort scores and improvements in IB points. You may assume effort scores follow a normal
distribution. [3]

Markscheme

H0 :ρ = 0

H0 :ρ > 0 A1

Note: Allow hypotheses to be expressed in words.

p -value = 0.00157 A1

(0.00157 < 0.01) there is a significant evidence of a (linear) correlation between effort and improvement (so it is
reasonable to assume a linear relationship) R1

[3 marks]

(f.ii) Hence, find the expected improvement between predicted and final points for an increase of one unit
in effort grades, giving your answer to one decimal place. [1]

Markscheme

(gradient of line of regression =) 6.6 A1

[1 mark]

A mathematics teacher in school A claims that the comparison between the two schools is not valid because the sample
for school B contained mainly girls and that for school A, mainly boys. She believes that girls are likely to show a greater
improvement from their predicted points to their final points.
She collects more data from other schools, asking them to class their results into four categories as shown in the
following table.

(g) Use an appropriate test to determine whether showing an improvement is independent of gender. [6]

Markscheme

H0 : improvement and gender are independent

H1 : improvement and gender are not independent A1

choice of χ test for independence

2
(M1)

groups first two columns as expected values in first column less than 5 M1

new observed table

(A1)

p -value = 0.581 A1

no significant evidence that gender and improvement are dependent R1

[6 marks]

(h) If you were to repeat the test performed in part (e) intending to compare the quality of the teaching
between the two schools, suggest two ways in which you might choose your sample to improve the
validity of the test. [2]

Markscheme

For example:

larger samples / include data from whole school

take equal numbers of boys and girls in each sample

have a similar range of abilities in each sample

(if possible) have similar ranges of effort R1R1

Note: Award R1 for each reasonable suggestion to improve the validity of the test.

[2 marks]
25. [Maximum mark: 29] EXN.3.AHL.TZ0.2
A graphic designer, Ben, wants to create an animation in which a sequence of squares is created by a composition of
successive enlargements and translations and then rotated about the origin and reduced in size.

Ben outlines his plan with the following storyboards.

The first four frames of the animation are shown below in greater detail.

The sides of each successive square are one half the size of the adjacent larger square. Let the sequence of squares be
U0 , U1 , U2 , …

The first square, U , has sides of length 4 cm.

0

(a) Find an expression for the width of U in centimetres.

n [2]

Markscheme

* This sample question was produced by experienced DP mathematics senior examiners to aid teachers in
preparing for external assessment in the new MAA course. There may be minor differences in formatting compared
to formal exam papers.
 4(
1

2n
) M1A1

[2 marks]

Ben decides the animation will continue as long as the width of the square is greater than the width of one pixel.

(b) Given the width of a pixel is approximately 0. 025 cm, find the number of squares in the final image. [3]

Markscheme

2
4
n > 0. 025 (A1)

n
2 < 160

n ≤ 7 (A1)

Note: Accept equations in place of inequalities.

Hence there are 8 squares A1

[3 marks]

Ben decides to generate the squares using the transformation

xn x0
( ) = An ( ) + bn
yn y0

where A is a 2 × 2 matrix that represents an enlargement, b is a 2 × 1 column vector that represents a translation,
n n

(x , y ) is a point in U and (x , y ) is its image in U .

0 0 0 n n n

(c.i) Write down A . 1 [1]

Markscheme

1
0
(
2
) A1
1
0
2

[1 mark]

(c.ii) Write down A , in terms of n.

n [1]
 Markscheme

1
n 0
An = (
2

1
) A1
0
2n

[1 mark]

By considering the case where (x 0, y0 ) is (0, 0),

(d.i) state the coordinates, (x 1, y1 ) , of its image in U . 1 [1]

Markscheme

(4, 4) A1

[1 mark]

(d.ii) hence find b . 1 [2]

Markscheme

0 4
A1 ( ) + b1 = ( ) (M1)
0 4

4
b1 = ( ) A1
4

[2 marks]

(d.iii) 8(1 − 2
−n
)
show that b = ( ) .
n
8(1 − 2
−n
) [3]

Markscheme

4 + 2 + 1 + …
Recognise the geometric series b n = ( ) M1
4 + 2 + 1 + …

1
4(1− )
Each component is equal to 1
2n
(= 8(1 −
1

2
n )) M1A1
2

1
8(1 − n )
AG
2
( )
1
8(1 − n )
2
 [3 marks]

(e) Hence or otherwise, find the coordinates of the top left-hand corner in U .
7 [3]

Markscheme

1 1
7
0 0 8(1 − 7
)
(
2

1
)( ) + (
2

1
) M1A1
0 4 8(1 − )
7 7
2 2

(7. 9375, 7. 96875) A1

[3 marks]

Once the image of squares has been produced, Ben wants to continue the animation by rotating the image counter
clockwise about the origin and having it reduce in size during the rotation.

Let E be the enlargement matrix used when the original sequence of squares has been rotated through θ degrees.
θ

Ben decides the enlargement scale factor, s, should be a linear function of the angle, θ, and after a rotation of 360° the
sequence of squares should be half of its original length.

(f.i) Find, s, in the form s(θ) = mθ + c . [4]

Markscheme

s(θ) = mθ + c

s(0) = 1, c = 1 M1A1

s(360) =
1

2
A1

2
= 360m + 1 ⇒ m = −
1

720
A1

θ
s(θ) = − + 1
720

[4 marks]

(f.ii) Write down E . θ [1]

Markscheme

θ
− + 1 0
A1
720
Eθ = ( )
θ
0 − + 1
720
 [1 mark]

(f.iii) Hence find the image of (1, 1) after it is rotated 135° and enlarged. [4]

Markscheme

135
− + 1 0 cos 135° − sin 135° 1
M1A1A1
720
( )( )( )
135
0 − + 1 sin 135° cos 135° 1
720

(−1. 15, 0) A1

[4 marks]

(g) Find the value of θ at which the enlargement scale factor equals zero. [1]

Markscheme

θ = 720° A1

[1 mark]

(h) After the enlargement scale factor equals zero, Ben continues to rotate the image for another two
revolutions.

Describe the animation for these two revolutions, stating the final position of the sequence of squares. [3]

Markscheme

The image will expand from zero (accept equivalent answers)

It will rotate counter clockwise

The design will (re)appear in the opposite (third) quadrant A1A1

Note: Accept any two of the above

Its final position will be in the opposite (third) quadrant or 180˚ from its original position or equivalent statement.
A1

[3 marks]
26. [Maximum mark: 27] EXM.3.AHL.TZ0.9
In this question you will explore possible models for the spread of an infectious disease

An infectious disease has begun spreading in a country. The National Disease Control Centre (NDCC) has compiled the
following data after receiving alerts from hospitals.

A graph of n against d is shown below.

The NDCC want to find a model to predict the total number of people infected, so they can plan for medicine and
hospital facilities. After looking at the data, they think an exponential function in the form n = ab could be used as a
d

model.

(a) Use an exponential regression to find the value of a and of b, correct to 4 decimal places. [3]

Markscheme

a = 9.7782, b = 1.7125 M1A1A1

[3 marks]

Use your answer to part (a) to predict

(b.i) the number of new people infected on day 6. [3]

Markscheme

n (6) = 247 A1

number of new people infected = 247 – 140 = 107 M1A1

[3 marks]

(b.ii) the day when the total number of people infected will be greater than 1000. [2]

Markscheme
 use of graph or table M1

day 9 A1

[2 marks]

The NDCC want to verify the accuracy of these predictions. They decide to perform a χ goodness of fit test.
2

(c) Use your answer to part (a) to show that the model predicts 16.7 people will be infected on the first day. [1]

Markscheme

9.7782(1.7125)1 M1

= 16.7 people AG

[1 mark]

The predictions given by the model for the first five days are shown in the table.

(d.i) Explain why the number of degrees of freedom is 2. [2]

Markscheme

2 parameters (a and b) were estimated from the data. R1

υ = 5 − 1 − 2 M1

= 2 AG

[2 marks]

(d.ii) Perform a χ goodness of fit test at the 5% significance level. You should clearly state your hypotheses,
2

the p-value, and your conclusion. [5]

Markscheme

H0 : data is modeled by n (d) = 9.7782(1.7125)

d
and H 1 : data is not modeled by n (d) = 9.7782(1.7125)
d

A1

p-value = 0.893 A2

Since 0.893 > 0.05 R1

Insufficient evidence to reject H . So data is modeled by n (d)

0 = 9.7782(1.7125)
d
A1
 [5 marks]

In fact, the first day when the total number of people infected is greater than 1000 is day 14, when a total of 1015 people
are infected.

(e) Give two reasons why the prediction in part (b)(ii) might be lower than 14. [2]

Markscheme

vaccine or medicine might slow down rate of infection R1

People become more aware of disease and take precautions to avoid infection R1

Accept other valid reasons

[2 marks]

Based on this new data, the NDCC decide to try a logistic model in the form n =
L

1+ce −kd
.

Use the data from days 1–5, together with day 14, to find the value of

(f.i) L . [2]

Markscheme

1060 M1A1

[2 marks]

(f.ii) c . [1]

Markscheme

108 A1

[1 mark]

(f.iii) k . [1]

Markscheme

0.560 A1

[1 mark]

(g) Hence predict the total number of people infected by this disease after several months. [2]
 Markscheme

As d → ∞ M1

n → 1060 A1

[2 marks]

(h) Use the logistic model to find the day when the rate of increase of people infected is greatest. [3]

Markscheme

sketch of dn

dd
or solve d n

dd
2
= 0 M1

d = 8.36 A1

Day 8 A1

[3 marks]

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