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Chapter 2

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
15 views68 pages

Chapter 2

Uploaded by

李昊哲
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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2 Probability

Sample Spaces and Events


Experiment: Activity or process whose outcome is subject
to uncertainty.
Sample Space of an Experiment

The simplest experiment: = {N, D}; = {M, F}.

2
Event

Experiment: Three vehicles taking a freeway exit turns left


(L) or right (R)

S ={LLL, RLL, LRL, LLR, LRR, RLR, RRL,RRR}

There are 8 simple events: E1 = {LLL}; E5 = {LRR}.

3
Events cont’d

Compound events:
Exactly 1 of the 3 vehicles turns right
A = {RLL, LRL, LLR}

Event that at most 1 of the vehicles turns right


B = {LLL, RLL, LRL, LLR}

Event that all 3 vehicles turn in the same direction


C = {LLL, RRR}

4
Some Relations from Set Theory
An event is a set, relationships and results from set theory
can be used to study events.

Definition

5
Example 1
In an experiment, the number of pumps in use at a single
six-pump gas station is observed,
let A = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4}, B = {3, 4, 5, 6}, and C = {1, 3, 5}.

Then
A = {5, 6},
A  B = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} = ,
A  C = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5},
A  B = {3, 4},
A  C = {1, 3},
(A  C) = {0, 2, 4, 5, 6}

6
Some Relations from Set Theory
If A and B have no outcomes in common, their intersection
is null event

A small city has 3 automobile dealerships: a GM dealer


selling Chevrolets and Buicks; a Ford dealer selling Fords
and Lincolns; and a Toyota dealer.

Experiment: The brand of the next car sold


A = {Chevrolet, Buick}
B = {Ford, Lincoln} 7
Some Relations from Set Theory

8
Axioms, Interpretations, and Properties of Probability

9
Interpreting Probability
A fair coin is tossed: P(H) = P(T) = .5,

A fair die is thrown: P({1}) = · · · = P({6}) =

10
More Probability Properties
Proposition

11
More Probability Properties

When events A and B are mutually exclusive,


P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B).

Proposition

12
More Probability Properties
The addition rule for a triple union probability is similar to
the foregoing rule.

13
More Probability Properties

In general, the probability of a union of k events is obtained


by summing individual event probabilities, subtracting
double intersection probabilities, adding triple intersection
probabilities, subtracting quadruple intersection probabilities,
and so on.

14
Equally Likely Outcomes
Consider an event A, with N(A) denoting the number of
outcomes contained in A. Then

15
Example 2
There are six unread mysteries on a bookshelf and six unread
science fiction books. The first three of each type are hardcover,
and the last three are paperback.

16
Example 2 cont’d

If one of the six the mysteries books and one of the six science
fiction books are randomly selected to take on a vacation.
Find the probability (Event A) that both selected books are
paperbacks.

17
Example 2 cont’d

If one of the six the mysteries books and one of the six science
fiction books are randomly selected to take on a vacation.
Find the probability (Event A) that both selected books are
paperbacks.

18
Example 3

19
Example 4

P(C1 woks) =0.8; P(C2 works) = 0.85; P(C3 works) = 0.95

Calculate the Probability that the system works

20
Classwork

21
Example 5

22
Conditional Probability
P(A | B): The conditional probability of A given that the
event B has occurred.

23
Example 6
Suppose that of all individuals buying a certain digital camera,
60% include an optional memory card in their purchase, 40%
include an extra battery, and 30% include both a card and
battery. Consider randomly selecting a buyer and let
A = {memory card purchased} and B = {battery purchased}.
Given that the selected individual purchased an extra battery,
find the probability that an optional card was also purchased.

24
cont’d

P(A) = 0.60, P(B) = .40


P(both purchased) = P(A ∩ B) = .30

Similarly,

P(battery | memory card) =

Note:  P(A) and  P(B).


25
The Multiplication Rule for P(A ∩ B)

26
Bayes’ Theorem

27
Example 7
An individual has 3 different email accounts. Most of her
messages, in fact 70%, come into account #1, whereas 20%
come into account #2 and the remaining 10% into account #3.
Of the messages into account #1, only 1% are spam, whereas
the corresponding percentages for accounts #2 and #3 are 2%
and 5%, respectively. What is the probability that a randomly
selected message is spam?

28
Example 7
Ai = {message is from account  i} for i = 1, 2, 3,

B = {message is spam}

P(A1) = .70, P(A2) = .20, P(A3) = .10

P(B) = (.01)(.70) + (.02)(.20) + (.05)(.10) = .016

1.6% of this individual’s messages will be spam.

29
Bayes’ Theorem

30
Example 8

31
Exercise

32
The Multiplication Rule for P(A  B)
Proposition

The verification of this multiplication rule is as follows:


P(A  B) = P(A | B)  P(B) = P(A)  P(B)

33
Example 9
30% of a certain company’s washing machines require service
while under warranty, whereas only 10% of its dryers need such
service. If someone purchases both a washer and a dryer made
by this company, what is the probability that both machines will
need warranty service?

A: Washer needs service while under warranty


B: Dryer needs service while under warranty
Then P(A) = .30 and P(B) = .10.

Assuming that the two machines will function independently

P(A  B) = P(A)  P(B) = (.30)(.10) = .03


34
Independence

35
Example 10

36
Independence of More Than Two Events
Definition

37
Example 11
Consider the system

P(Ai) = 0.9

38
Example 11

P(system lifetime exceeds t0)

= P[(A1  A2  A3)  (A4  A5  A6)]

= P(A1  A2  A3) + P(A4  A5  A6)


– P[(A1  A2  A3)  (A4  A5  A6)]

= (.9)(.9)(.9) + (.9)(.9)(.9) – (.9)(.9)(.9)(.9)(.9)(.9)

= .927

39
Example 11
Alternatively,
P(system lifetime exceeds t0)

= 1 – P(both subsystem lives are  t0)

= 1 – [P(subsystem life is  t0)]2

= 1 – [1 – P(subsystem life is > t0)]2

= 1 – [1 – (.9)3]2

= .927
40
Example 12
A total-cross-tied system obtained from the series-parallel
array by connecting ties across each column of junctions.

41
Example 12
P(system lifetime is at least t0)

= [P(column lifetime exceeds t0)]3

= [1 – P(column lifetime  t0)]3

= [1 – P(both cells in a column have lifetime  t0)]3

= [1 – (1 – .9)2]3

= .970

42
2 Probability

Copyright © Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.


43
2.3 Counting Techniques

44
Counting Techniques
When the various outcomes of an experiment are equally
likely (the same probability is assigned to each simple event),
the task of computing probabilities reduces to counting.

N: number of outcomes in a sample space


N(A): number of outcomes contained in an event A,

45
Counting Techniques
When N is large:

Apply counting rules without a listing of outcomes to


compute probabilities

Also, the rules are useful in problems involving outcomes


that are not equally likely.

46
The Product Rule for Ordered Pairs

47
The Product Rule for Ordered Pairs
Proposition

Alternative interpretation: An operation that consists of two


stages; if the first stage can be performed in any one of n1
ways, and for each such way there are n2 ways to perform
the second stage, then n1n2 is the number of ways of
carrying out the two stages in sequence.

48
Example 13
A family moved to a new city and requires the services of both
an obstetrician (Oi) and a pediatrician (Pj). There are two easily
accessible medical clinics, each having two obstetricians and
three pediatricians. The family will obtain maximum health
insurance benefits by joining a clinic and selecting both
doctors from that clinic. In how many ways can this be done?

49
cont’d

There are (Oi, Pj) pairs for which Oi and Pj are associated
with the same clinic.
Obstetricians, n1 = 4 (for each n there are 3 choices of
pediatrician), so, n2 = 3.

Product rule: N = n1n2 = 12 possible choices.

50
The Product Rule for Ordered Pairs
In general, if there are first-generation branches, and for
each first generation branch there are second-generation
branches, and so on, the total number of second-
generation branches is then n1n2…….

51
A More General Product Rule
An ordered collection of k objects is a k-tuple
(so a pair is a 2-tuple and a triple is a 3-tuple).

If a six-sided die is tossed five times in succession

Each possible outcome is an ordered collection of five


numbers such as (1, 3, 1, 2, 4) or (6, 5, 2, 2, 2).

Each outcome of the die-tossing experiment is then a


5-tuple.

52
A More General Product Rule

53
Example 14
Example 13 continued…

What if each clinic has both 3 specialists in internal


medicine and two general surgeons?

Then, 4-tuples of the form (Oi, Pj, Sk, Gl),

N = n1n2n3n4 = (4)(3)(3)(2) = 72 ways to select doctors at


same clinic

54
Permutations and Combinations

55
Permutations and Combinations

Definition

56
Permutations and Combinations: Basics
The number of permutations can be determined by using
the counting rule for k-tuples.

Example: A college of engineering has 7 departments


a, b, c, d, e, f, and g.
Each department has one representative on the college’s
student council. One is to be chosen chair, another a vice-
chair, and a third the secretary. How many ways are there
to select the three officers?

Note: k-tuple: This is 3-tuple:

57
Permutations and Combinations: Basics
Stage 1 : Chair can be selected in n1 = 7 ways

Stage 2: For each way of selecting the chair, there are n2 = 6


ways to select the vice-chair, hence 7  6 = 42 (chair, vice-
chair) pairs.

Stage 3: Finally, for each way of selecting a chair and vice-


chair, there are n3 = 5 ways of choosing the secretary.

So, P 3,7 = (7)(6)(5) = 210

58
Permutations and Combinations

P3,7 = (7)(6)(5) =

Proposition

Special cases: 1! = 1 and 0! = 1.


59
Example 15
There are ten teaching assistants available for grading papers
in a calculus course at a large university. The first exam
consists of four questions, and the professor wishes to select a
different assistant to grade each question (only one assistant
per question). In how many ways can the assistants be chosen
for grading? Here n = group size = 10 and k = subset size = 4.

60
Example 15
There are ten teaching assistants available for grading papers
in a calculus course at a large university. The first exam
consists of four questions, and the professor wishes to select a
different assistant to grade each question (only one assistant
per question). In how many ways can the assistants be chosen
for grading? Here n = group size = 10 and k = subset size = 4.

P4,10 10(9)(8)(7) = 5040

The professor could give 5040 different four-question exams


without using the same assignment of graders to questions

61
Combinations: Unordered subsets
Refer to the student council scenario.

Suppose that 3 of the 7 representatives are to be selected


to attend a statewide convention and the order of selection
is not important.

Rather , the number of combinations of size 3 that can


be formed from the 7 individuals.

62
Permutations and Combinations
Relationship between the number of combinations and the
number of permutations:

Note: The number of permutations = 210 far exceeds the


number of combinations. It is larger by a factor of 3! since
that is how many ways each combination can be ordered.

63
Permutations and Combinations
Proposition

Notice that and since there is only one way to


choose a set of (all) n elements or of no elements, and
since there are n subsets of size 1.

64
Example 16

65
Classwork

66
Classwork

67
Classwork

68

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