Introduction 1
Introduction 1
System
Stefanie Stantcheva
Fall 2019
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Our Goals for this class
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Class Logistics
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My research:
I study the taxation of firms and individuals. I focus on three main issues:
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PUBLIC ECONOMICS DEFINITION
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Figure 13.1. Tax revenues in rich countries, 1870-2010
60%
50% Sweden
Total tax revenues (% national income)
France
40%
U.K.
30%
U.S.
,
20%
10%
0%
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Total tax revenues were less than 10% of national income in rich countries until 1900-1910; they represent between
30% and 55% of national income in 2000-2010. Sources and series: see piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c.
⇒ Explains best why our modern nation states have defense and provide
education, health care, and retirement benefits
E.g., Retirement benefits: Saving for your own retirement is economically rational
but in practice most people unable to do so unless institutions
(employers/government) help them 7 41
For Economists: Two General Rules for Government Intervention
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Role 1: 1st Welfare Theorem Failure
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2. Imperfect competition
We will see some of this when we study R&D policies and innovation.
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3. Imperfect and asymmetric information
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4. Individual Failures
Paternalism?
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Individual Failures vs. Paternalism
In many situations, individuals may not or do not seem to act in their best
interests [e.g., many individuals are not able to save for retirement]
2nd Welfare Theorem: Any Pareto Efficient outcome can be reached by (1)
Suitable redistribution of initial endowments [individualized lump-sum
taxes based on indiv. characteristics and not behavior], (2) Then letting
markets work freely
2nd welfare theorem: govt is able to tell apart the disabled from the able
[even if the able do not work]
⇒ can tax the able by $50 [regardless of whether they work or not] to give $50 to
each disabled person ⇒ the able keep working [otherwise they’d have zero
income and still have to pay $50]
Real world: govt can’t tell apart disabled from non working able
⇒ $50 tax on workers + $50 transfer on non workers destroys all incentives to
work ⇒ govt can no longer do full redistribution ⇒ Trade-off between equity and
size of the pie
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Normative vs. Positive Public Economics
Positive Public Economics: Analysis of How Things Really Are (e.g., Does
govt provided health care crowd out private health care insurance? Do
higher taxes reduce labor supply?)
Post-tax income is income net of all taxes and adding all transfers and
public good spending
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National Income Distribution 2014 from Piketty, Saez, and Zucman NBER '16
Pre-tax income Post-tax income
Average Average
Income group Number of adults Income share Income share
income income
Pre-tax
45%
% of national income
40%
35%
30%
Post-tax (after taxes and adding
transfers and govt spending)
25%
1917
1922
1927
1932
1937
1942
1947
1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
2017
Source: Piketty, Saez, Zucman (2018)
US tax/transfer System: Progressivity and Evolution
http:
//www.treasury.gov/education/fact-sheets/taxes/ustax.shtml
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The macro rate of tax rose until the
1960s and has been constant since then
Macroeconomic tax rate
(Federal + State + local)
45%
40%
35%
% of national income
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1913
1918
1923
1928
1933
1938
1943
1948
1953
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
2013
Source: Appendix Table II-G1.
45%
40%
35%
% of pre-tax income
Top 1%
30% All
25%
20%
5%
0%
1913
1918
1923
1928
1933
1938
1943
1948
1953
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
2013
Source: Appendix Table II-G1.
2) Payroll taxes (on labor income) financing social security programs [about
neutral] (40% of revenue)
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State+Local Tax System: Overview
3) Real estate property taxes (on capital income) [slightly progressive] (1/3
of revenue)
See ITEP (2018) “Who Pays” for systematic state level distributional tax
tables
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Don’t Be Like This: Perception vs. Reality
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GOAL: TAKE A LOOK AT ACTUAL TAX SYSTEM
Sometimes you are an optimal tax theorist and don’t know the actual top
tax rates – it’s weird.
You need to know institutional details. It’s not boring. It’s crucial.
You should not try to capture all institutional details in your models. But
unless you know them, you cannot argue they are second-order.
(Sometimes the devil is in the detail, sometimes not).
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxfacts/
A) Taxes: (1) individual income tax (fed+state), (2) payroll taxes on earnings
(fed, funds Social Security+Medicare), (3) corporate income tax (fed+state),
(4) sales taxes (state)+excise taxes (state+fed), (5) property taxes (state)
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FEDERAL US INCOME TAX
Sum all cash income sources from family members (both from labor and
capital income sources) = called Adjusted Gross Income (AGI)
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FEDERAL US INCOME TAX
Standard deduction is a fixed amount ($12K for singles, $24K for married
couple)
Itemized deductions: (a) state and local taxes paid (up to $10K), (b)
mortgage interest payments, (c) charitable giving, various small other items
[about 10% of AGI lost through itemized deductions, called tax expenditures]
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FEDERAL US INCOME TAX: TAX BRACKETS
Tax rates change frequently over time. Top MTRs have declined drastically
since 1960s (as in many OECD countries)
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T(z) Individual Income Tax
slope 37%
T(z) is
continuous in z
slope
slope 12%
10%
0 taxable income z
T’(z) Marginal Income Tax
T’(z) is a 37%
step function
12%
10%
0 taxable income z
In practice...
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2018 US Personal Income Tax Code
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FEDERAL US INCOME TAX: AMT AND CREDITS
Alternative minimum tax (AMT) is a parallel tax system (quasi flat tax at
28%) with fewer deductions: actual tax =max(T (z ), AMT ) (hits < 1% of
taxpayers in 2018+)
(1) Non refundable (cannot reduce taxes below zero): foreign tax credit,
child care expenses, education credits, energy credits
(2) Refundable (can reduce taxes below zero, i.e., be net transfers): EITC
(earned income tax credit, up to $3.5K, $5.7K, $6.5K for working families
with 1, 2, 3+ kids), Child Tax Credit ($2K per kid, partly refundable)
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FEDERAL US INCOME TAX: TAX FILING
Income tax return filed in late January-April 15th, year t + 1 [filers use
either software or tax preparers, huge private industry]
Most tax filers get a tax refund as withholdings > net taxes owed
Payers (employers, banks, etc.) send income information to IRS (US tax
administration) (3rd party reporting)
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MAIN MEANS-TESTED TRANSFER PROGRAMS
Main programs: EITC and Child Tax Credit [large expansion since the
1990s] for low income working families with children
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BOTTOM LINE ON ACTUAL TAXES/TRANSFERS
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KEY CONCEPTS FOR TAXES/TRANSFERS
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Budget Set
𝑐= z-T(z)
after-tax
and transfer
income
slope=1-T ′ (z)
-T(0)
0 z∗ pre-tax income z
𝑐= z-T(z)
(1 − 𝜏𝑝 )z
-T(0)
0 z
pre-tax income z
US Tax/Transfer System, single parent with 2 children, 2009
$50,000 $50,000
Welfare:
$40,000 $40,000 TANF+SNAP
Tax credits:
Disposable arnings
$20,000 $20,000
Earnings after
Fed+SSA taxes
$0 $0
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
Gross Earnings (with employer payroll taxes)
2) Children: What should be the net transfer (transfer or tax reduction) for
family with children (as a function of family income and structure)?
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TAXATION OF COUPLES
Proof: (1)+(2) ⇒ T (z h + z w ) = T (z h ) + T (z w ) ⇒ T (z ) = τ · z
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TAXATION OF COUPLES
In OECD countries: income tax systems have become individual based but
means tested transfers have remained family based
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TRANSFERS OR TAX CREDITS FOR CHILDREN
Pro: they reduce normalized income most for upper earners [e.g., France
computes taxes as N · T (z /N ) where N is # family members, kids count
as .5 ⇒ Tkid (z ) increases with z].
Cons: lower earners need child transfers most [most OECD countries have
means-tested transfers conditional on number of kids ⇒ Tkid (z ) decreases
with z, US has Tkid (z ) inverted U-shape due to EITC and Child Tax Credit]
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TRANSFERS OR TAX CREDITS FOR CHILDREN
5) Child care costs are positively related to work ⇒ Such costs should be
subsidized by Atkinson-Stiglitz [often they are in practice]:
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CHILDREN AND LIMITS OF UTILITARIAN MODEL
If ability uncorrelated with children ⇒ Families with kids will get fully
compensating transfers
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REFERENCES CITED
Alvaredo, F., Atkinson, A., T. Piketty and E. Saez “The Top 1 Percent in
International and Historical Perspective.” Journal of Economic Perspectives
27(3), 2013, 3-20. (web)
Alvaredo, F., Atkinson, A., T. Piketty, E. Saez, and G. Zucman World Inequality
Database, (web)
Alvaredo, F., Atkinson, A., T. Piketty, E. Saez, and G. Zucman. 2018 World
Inequality Report, (web)
Atkinson, A., T. Piketty and E. Saez “Top Incomes in the Long Run of History”,
Journal of Economic Literature 49(1), 2011, 30–71. (web)
Chetty, Raj, Nathan Hendren, Patrick Kline, and Emmanuel Saez, “Where is the
Land of Opportunity? The Geography of Intergenerational Mobility in the United
States,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129(4), 2014, 1553-1623. (web)
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ITEP (Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy). 2018. “Who Pays: A
Distributional Analysis of the Tax Systems in All 50 States”, 6th edition. (web)
Kopczuk, Wojciech, Emmanuel Saez, and Jae Song “Earnings Inequality and
Mobility in the United States: Evidence from Social Security Data since 1937,”
Quarterly Journal of Economics 125(1), 2010, 91-128. (web)
Piketty, Thomas and Emmanuel Saez “Income Inequality in the United States,
1913-1998”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(1), 2003, 1-39. (web)
Piketty, Thomas and Emmanuel Saez “How Progressive is the U.S. Federal Tax
System? A Historical and International Perspective,” Journal of Economic
Perspectives, 21(1), Winter 2007, 3-24. (web)
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Piketty, Thomas and Gabriel Zucman, “Capital is Back: Wealth-Income Ratios in
Rich Countries, 1700-2010”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 129(3), 2014,
1255-1310 (web)
Saez, Emmanuel and Gabriel Zucman, “Wealth Inequality in the United States
since 1913: Evidence from Capitalized Income Tax Data”, Quarterly Journal of
Economics 131(2), 2016, 519-578 (web)
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GENERAL BOOK REFERENCES
Graduate Level
Atkinson, A.B. and J. Stiglitz, Lectures on Public Economics, New York: McGraw
Hill, 1980.
Auerbach, A., Chetty, R., M. Feldstein, and E. Saez, eds., Handbook of Public
Economics, Volume 5, Amsterdam: North Holland, 2013 (web)
Mirrlees, J. Reforming the Tax System for the 21st Century The Mirrlees Review,
Oxford University Press, (2 volumes) 2009 and 2010. (web)
Imbens, Guido and Jeffrey Wooldridge (2007) What’s New in Econometrics? NBER
SUMMER INSTITUTE MINI COURSE 2007. (web)
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