Module 6.
Statistical
Intervals
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1
Introduction
Engineers are often involved in estimating parameters. Statistical
intervals represent an uncertainty that exists in the data because we work
with samples that are obtained from a larger population or process.
Statistical intervals are staples of the quality and validation practitioner’s
statistical tool box. Statistical intervals can manifest as plus or-minus limits
on test data, represent a margin of error in a scientific poll, or indicate the
level of confidence associated with a predicted value. This chapter will
discussed a three part series written to help validation and understand the
three most common intervals; namely, the confidence interval, the
prediction interval, and the tolerance interval. In this part, confidence
intervals are discussed.
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Learning Objectives
At the end of this module, it is expected that the students
will be able to:
1. Construct confidence intervals using single sample and
multiple sample
2. Construct a prediction for a future observation
3. Construct a tolerance interval for a normal distribution
4. Explain the three types of interval estimates; confidence
intervals, prediction intervals and tolerance intervals
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Confidence Interval
Confidence Interval
• An interval containing the most believable values for a parameter
• Also called as interval estimate
• The probability that this method produces an interval is called the
confidence level
• This is a number chosen to close to 1, most commonly 0.95
• A confidence interval always specifies a confidence level, usually
90%, 95%, or 99%, which is a measure of the reliability of the
procedure
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Confidence Interval
Confidence Interval
2 – tailed 1 - tailed
Confidence Interval Z-value Confidence Interval Z-value
99 2.58 99 2.33
98 2.33 99 2.06
95 1.96 95 1.65
90 1.65 90 1.28
Using Calcu – use Distribution 2Q( Using Calcu – use Distribution P(
then estimate z-value that will then estimate z-value that will
corresponds to the CF corresponds to the CF
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Estimating the Population Mean with Large Sample
Sizes
The following Z-formulas can be used for the estimation of the
population mean
Solving for the population mean, m
ҧ
𝑥−𝜇 𝜎
z= 𝜎 𝜇 = 𝑥ҧ ± 𝑧( )
𝑛
𝑛
Thus, the confidence interval for estimating m with large sample size is
𝜎 𝜎
𝑥ҧ − 𝑧 < 𝜇 < 𝑥ҧ + 𝑧
𝑛 𝑛
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Estimating the Population Mean with Large Sample
Sizes
Example 1: A sample of fish was selected from 53 Florida lakes, and mercury concentration in the
muscle tissue was measured (ppm). Find an approximate 95% CI on μ. The mercury concentration
values were
Given:
Z = 1.96, n = 53, s = 0.3486, and 𝑥ҧ = 0.5250
Solution:
𝑠 𝑠
𝑥ҧ −𝑧 < 𝜇 𝑥ҧ + 𝑧
𝑛 𝑛
0.3486 0.3486
0.5250 − 1.96 < 𝜇 < 0.5250 + 1.96
53 53
𝟎. 𝟒𝟑𝟏𝟏 < 𝝁 < 𝟎. 𝟔𝟏𝟖𝟗
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Estimating the Population Mean with Large Sample
Sizes
Example 2: The average zinc concentration recovered from a sample of measurements taken in 36
different locations in a river is found to be 2.6 grams per milliliter. Find the 95% and 99% confidence
intervals for the mean zinc concentration in the river. Assume that the population standard deviation
is 0.3 gram per milliliter.
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Estimating the Population Mean with Large Sample
Sizes
Choice of Sample Size
The appropriate sample size is found by choosing n such that 𝑍𝛼/2(√𝜎/𝑛)=E. If is used as an estimate
of μ, we can be 100(1 − α) % confident that the error |x– μ| will not exceed a specified amount E
when the sample size is
𝑧 − 𝜎2
n=
𝐸
Example 1.Consider the CVN test described in Example1 and suppose that we want to determine
how many specimens must be tested to ensure that the 95% CI on μ for A238 steel cut at 60°C has a
length of at most 1.0 J. Because the bound on error in estimation E is one-half of the length of the CI.
Solution:
E = 0.5, σ = 1, and 𝑍𝛼/2 = 1.96.
The required sample size is
1.96 − 1 2
n=( ) = 15.37 = 𝟏𝟔 𝒔𝒂𝒎𝒑𝒍𝒆𝒔
0.5
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Estimating the Population Mean with Large Sample
Sizes
One-Sided Confidence Bounds
The confidence interval in Equation 8.5 gives both a lower confidence bound and an upper
confidence bound for μ. Thus, it provides a two-sided CI. It is also possible to obtain one-sided
confidence bounds for μ by setting either the lower bound l= −∞ or the upper bound u = ∞ and
replacing 𝑍𝛼/2(two-tailed) by 𝑍𝛼(one-tailed).
• Upper confidence Bound
𝜎
𝑥ҧ + 𝑧 < 𝜇
𝑛
• Lower confidence Bound
𝜎
𝑥ҧ − 𝑧 < 𝜇
𝑛
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Estimating the Population Mean with Large Sample
Sizes
Example 1.The same data for impact testing from Example 1 are used to construct a lower, one-sided
95% confidence interval for the mean impact energy. Recall that x = 64.46, σ = 1J, and n = 10. What
is the interval?
Solution:
𝜎
𝑥ҧ − 𝑧 < 𝜇
𝑛
1
64.46 − 1.64 < 𝜇
10
𝟔𝟑. 𝟗𝟒 < 𝝁
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Estimating the Population Mean with Small Sample
Sizes
• If the standard deviation of the population is unknown, the sample size is small;
the z-formula is not applicable
• Instead of the z-distribution, the t-distribution will be used
• The t-formula is given by:
𝑥ҧ − 𝜇
t= 𝑠
𝑛
The confidence interval formula is:
s s
xത − t < μ < xത + t
n n
df = n-1 (degree of freedom)
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Estimating the Population Mean with Small Sample
Sizes
Example 1. An article in the Journal of Materials Engineering describes the results of tensile
adhesion tests on 22 U-700 alloy specimens. Find the 95% confidence interval (CI). The load at
specimen failure is as follows (in mega pascals):
Given:
n = 22, x = 13.71 s = 3.55, df = 22 – 1 = 21, t = 1.721
Solution:
s s
xത − t < μ < xത + t
n n
3.55 3.55
13.71 − 1.721 < μ < 13.71 + 1.721
22 22
12.41 < 𝛍 < 15.01
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Estimating the Population Mean with Small Sample
Sizes
Example 2. Suppose the following data values below are selected randomly from a population of
normally distributed values. Find the interval estimate using 90% CL.
40 39 51 42 43 48 48
45 44 39 57 43 54
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Confidence Interval on the Variance and Standard Deviation
of a Normal Distribution
Sometimes confidence intervals on the population variance or standard deviation are needed. When
the population is modelled by a normal distribution, the tests and intervals described in this section
are applicable. The following result provides the basis of constructing these confidence intervals.
• X2 Distribution
Let X1, X2,…, Xn be a random sample from a normal distribution with mean μ
and variance σ2, and let S2 be the sample variance.
Then the random variable
2
𝑛 − 1 𝑆
𝑥2 =
𝜎2
has a chi-square (χ2) distribution with n − 1 degrees of freedom.
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Confidence Interval on the Variance and Standard Deviation
of a Normal Distribution
• Confidence interval on the variance
If s2 is the sample variance from a random sample of n observations from a
normal distribution with unknown variance σ2, then a 100(1 − α) % confidence interval
on σ2 is
Where are the upper and lower 100α/2 percentage points of the chi-square distribution with n −
1 degrees of freedom, respectively. A confidence interval for σ has lower and upper limits that are the square
roots of the corresponding limits in the above equation.
For example, we decide on a level of confidence, say, for the sake of illustration, 95%. This means that we
need two 2.5% tails.
Secondly, we know that we have n − 1 degrees of freedom so that the value of X2 will lie between the left-tail
value of χ2 0.975,n−1 and the right-tail value of χ2 0.025,n−1. If we know the value of n then we can easily
read off these values from the χ2 tables.
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Confidence Interval on the Variance and Standard
Deviation of a Normal Distribution
Example 1. A random sample of 20 nominally measured 2mm diameter steel ball bearings is taken
and the diameters are measured precisely. The measurements, in mm, are as follows:
2.02 1.94 2.09 1.95 1.98 2.00 2.03 2.04 2.08 2.07
1.99 1.96 1.99 1.95 1.99 1.99 2.03 2.05 2.01 2.03
Assuming that the diameters are normally distributed with unknown mean, µ, and unknown variance
σ2, (a) find a two-sided 95% confidence interval for the variance, σ2;
Given:
n = 1, df = 19, s2 = 1.8892x10-3
2 2
𝑥0.975,19 = 8.907 𝑥0.025,19 = 32.852
Solution:
0.0359 2
0.0359
< 𝜎 <
8.907 32.852
𝟏. 𝟎𝟗𝟐𝟖 𝒙𝟏𝟎−𝟑 < 𝝈𝟐 < 𝟒. 𝟎𝟑𝟎𝟓 𝒙 𝟏𝟎−𝟑
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Confidence Interval on the Variance and Standard
Deviation of a Normal Distribution
Example 2. In a typical car, bell housings are bolted to crankcase castings by means of a series of 13
mm bolts. A random sample of 12 bolt-hole diameters is checked as part of a quality control process
and found to have a variance of 0.0013 mm2.
(a) Construct the 95% confidence interval for the variance of the holes.
(b) Find the 95% confidence interval for the standard deviation of the holes
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Two Samples: Estimating the Difference between Two
Means
If we have two populations with means μ1 and μ2 and variances σ1^2and σ2^2, respectively, a point estimator
of the difference between μ1 and μ2 is given by the statistic x1 − x2. Therefore, to obtain a point estimate of
μ1 − μ2, we shall select two independent random samples, one from each population, of sizes n1 and n2, and
compute x1 − x2, the difference of the sample means. Clearly, we must consider the sampling distribution of
x1 − x2
• Confidence Interval for Difference between Two Means, Variances Known
If x1 and x2 are means of independent random samples of sizes n1 and n2 from populations with known
variances σ1^2 and σ2^2, respectively, a 100(l − α) % confidence interval for μ1 -μ2 is given by
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Large-Sample Confidence Interval for a Population
Proportion
It is often necessary to construct confidence intervals on a population proportion.
• Estimating the Population Proportion
p −P 𝑝𝑞
z= ; 𝜎𝑝 =
𝜎𝑝 𝑛
Where:
P = population proporation
p = sample proportion
q = 1-p
n = sample size
Thus the confidence interval for population proportion is
𝑝 − 𝑧𝜎𝑝 < 𝑃 < 𝑝 + 𝑧𝜎𝑝
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Large-Sample Confidence Interval for a Population
Proportion
Example 1: In 2000, the GSS asked: Are you willing to pay much higher prices in order to protect the
environment? Of n = 1154 respondents, 518 were willing. Find the 95% CI for the population that is willing.
Given:
n = 1154, s = 518, CI = 95% = 1.96
Solution:
p = 518/1154 = 0.4489
𝑝𝑞
𝑝 ±𝑧
𝑛
0.4489(1 − 0.4489)
0.4489 ± 1.96
1154
𝟎. 𝟒𝟐 < 𝑷 < 𝟎. 𝟒𝟖
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Large-Sample Confidence Interval for a Population
Proportion
Example 2: Suppose a random sample of 40 items has been taken from the population and 34 of them passed
the predetermined standards. Use this information to calculate the 90%, 95% and 99% confidence level to
estimate the proportion of the population.
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Prediction Interval for Future Observation
In some problem situations, we may be interested in predicting a future
observation of a variable. This is a different problem than estimating the mean
of that variable, so a confidence interval is not appropriate. In this section, we
show how to obtain a 100(1 − α)% prediction interval on a future value of a
normal random variable.
A prediction interval provides bounds on one (or more) future
observations from the population. For example, a prediction interval could be
used to bound a single, new measurement of viscosity—another useful
interval.
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Prediction Interval for Future Observation
For a normal distribution of measurements with unknown mean μ and known variance σ2, a 100(1 − α) %
prediction interval of a future observation 𝑋0 is
For a normal distribution of measurements with unknown mean μ and unknown variance σ2, a 100(1 − α) %
prediction interval of a future observation 𝑋0 is
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Prediction Interval for Future Observation
Example 1: A meat inspector has randomly selected 30 packs of 95% lean beef. The sample resulted in a mean
of 96.2% with a sample standard deviation of 0.8%. Find a 99% prediction interval for the leanness of a new
pack. Assume normality.
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Tolerance Interval
A tolerance interval is another important type of interval estimate. For
example, the chemical product viscosity data might be assumed to be normally
distributed. We might like to calculate limits that bound 95% of the viscosity
values. A tolerance interval for capturing at least γ% of the values in a normal
distribution with confidence level 100(1 − α) % is
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Tolerance Interval
Example 1: A meat inspector has randomly selected 30 packs of 95% lean
beef. The sample resulted in a mean of 96.2% with a sample standard deviation
of 0.8%. Find a tolerance interval that gives two-sided 95% bounds on 90% of
the distribution of packages of 95% lean beef. Assume the data came from an
approximately normal distribution
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