Chapter 4

Introduction to Probability
 Experiments, Counting Rules,
and Assigning Probabilities
 Events and Their Probability
 Some Basic Relationships
of Probability
 Conditional Probability
 Bayes’ Theorem

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 Uncertainties

Managers often base their decisions on an analysis

of uncertainties such as the following:

What are the chances that sales will decrease

if we increase prices?

What is the likelihood a new assembly method

method will increase productivity?

What are the odds that a new investment will

be profitable?

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 Probability

Probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood

that an event will occur.

Probability values are always assigned on a scale

from 0 to 1.

A probability near zero indicates an event is quite

unlikely to occur.

A probability near one indicates an event is almost

certain to occur.

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 Probability as a Numerical Measure
of the Likelihood of Occurrence

Increasing Likelihood of Occurrence

0 .5 1
Probability:

The event The occurrence The event

is very of the event is is almost
unlikely just as likely as certain
to occur. it is unlikely. to occur.

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 Statistical Experiments

In statistics, the notion of an experiment differs

somewhat from that of an experiment in the
physical sciences.

In statistical experiments, probability determines

outcomes.

Even though the experiment is repeated in exactly

the same way, an entirely different outcome may
occur.

For this reason, statistical experiments are some-

times called random experiments.
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 An Experiment and Its Sample Space

An experiment is any process that generates well-

defined outcomes.

The sample space for an experiment is the set of

all experimental outcomes.

An experimental outcome is also called a sample

point.

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 An Experiment and Its Sample Space

Experiment Experiment Outcomes

Toss a coin Head, tail
Inspection a part Defective, non-defective
Conduct a sales call Purchase, no purchase
Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Play a football game Win, lose, tie

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 An Experiment and Its Sample Space

 Example: Bradley Investments

Bradley has invested in two stocks, Markley Oil
and Collins Mining. Bradley has determined that the
possible outcomes of these investments three months
from now are as follows.
Investment Gain or Loss
in 3 Months (in $000)
Markley Oil Collins Mining
10 8
5 -2
0
-20

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 A Counting Rule for
Multiple-Step Experiments
 If an experiment consists of a sequence of k steps
in which there are n1 possible results for the first step,
n2 possible results for the second step, and so on,
then the total number of experimental outcomes is
given by (n1)(n2) . . . (nk).
 A helpful graphical representation of a multiple-step
experiment is a tree diagram.

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 A Counting Rule for
Multiple-Step Experiments
 Example: Bradley Investments
Bradley Investments can be viewed as a two-step
experiment. It involves two stocks, each with a set of
experimental outcomes.

Markley Oil: n1 = 4
Collins Mining: n2 = 2
Total Number of
Experimental Outcomes: n1n2 = (4)(2) = 8

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 Tree Diagram

 Example: Bradley Investments

Markley Oil Collins Mining Experimental
(Stage 1) (Stage 2) Outcomes
Gain 8 (10, 8) Gain $18,000
(10, -2) Gain $8,000
Gain 10 Lose 2
Gain 8 (5, 8) Gain $13,000

Lose 2 (5, -2) Gain $3,000

Gain 5
Gain 8
(0, 8) Gain $8,000
Even
(0, -2) Lose $2,000
Lose 20 Lose 2
Gain 8 (-20, 8) Lose $12,000
Lose 2 (-20, -2) Lose $22,000
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 Counting Rule for Combinations

 Number of Combinations of N Objects

Taken n at a Time
A second useful counting rule enables us to count
the number of experimental outcomes when n objects
are to be selected from a set of N objects.

 N N!
CnN   
 n  n !(N - n )!

where: N! = N(N - 1)(N - 2) . . . (2)(1)

n! = n(n - 1)(n - 2) . . . (2)(1)
0! = 1

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 Counting Rule for Permutations

 Number of Permutations of N Objects

Taken n at a Time
A third useful counting rule enables us to count
the number of experimental outcomes when n
objects are to be selected from a set of N objects,
where the order of selection is important.

 N N!
PnN  n !  
 n  (N - n )!

where: N! = N(N - 1)(N - 2) . . . (2)(1)

n! = n(n - 1)(n - 2) . . . (2)(1)
0! = 1
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 Assigning Probabilities

 Basic Requirements for Assigning Probabilities

1. The probability assigned to each experimental

outcome must be between 0 and 1, inclusively.

0 < P(Ei) < 1 for all i

where:
Ei is the ith experimental outcome
and P(Ei) is its probability

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 Assigning Probabilities

 Basic Requirements for Assigning Probabilities

2. The sum of the probabilities for all experimental

outcomes must equal 1.

P(E1) + P(E2) + . . . + P(En) = 1

where:
n is the number of experimental outcomes

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 Assigning Probabilities

Classical Method
Assigning probabilities based on the assumption
of equally likely outcomes

Relative Frequency Method

Assigning probabilities based on experimentation
or historical data

Subjective Method
Assigning probabilities based on judgment

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 Classical Method

 Example: Rolling a Die

If an experiment has n possible outcomes, the
classical method would assign a probability of 1/n
to each outcome.
Experiment: Rolling a die
Sample Space: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Probabilities: Each sample point has a
1/6 chance of occurring

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 Relative Frequency Method

 Example: Lucas Tool Rental

Lucas Tool Rental would like to assign probabilities
to the number of car polishers it rents each day.
Office records show the following frequencies of daily
rentals for the last 40 days.
Number of Number
Polishers Rented of Days
0 4
1 6
2 18
3 10
4 2
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 Relative Frequency Method

 Example: Lucas Tool Rental

Each probability assignment is given by dividing
the frequency (number of days) by the total frequency
(total number of days).

Number of Number
Polishers Rented of Days Probability
0 4 .10
1 6 .15
2 18 .45 4/40
3 10 .25
4 2 .05
40 1.00
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 Subjective Method

 When economic conditions and a company’s

circumstances change rapidly it might be
inappropriate to assign probabilities based solely on
historical data.
 We can use any data available as well as our
experience and intuition, but ultimately a probability
value should express our degree of belief that the
experimental outcome will occur.
 The best probability estimates often are obtained by
combining the estimates from the classical or relative
frequency approach with the subjective estimate.

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 Subjective Method

 Example: Bradley Investments

An analyst made the following probability estimates.

Exper. Outcome Net Gain or Loss Probability

(10, 8) $18,000 Gain .20
(10, -2) $8,000 Gain .08
(5, 8) $13,000 Gain .16
(5, -2) $3,000 Gain .26
(0, 8) $8,000 Gain .10
(0, -2) $2,000 Loss .12
(-20, 8) $12,000 Loss .02
(-20, -2) $22,000 Loss .06

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 Events and Their Probabilities

An event is a collection of sample points.

The probability of any event is equal to the sum of

the probabilities of the sample points in the event.

If we can identify all the sample points of an

experiment and assign a probability to each, we
can compute the probability of an event.

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 Events and Their Probabilities

 Example: Bradley Investments

Event M = Markley Oil Profitable

M = {(10, 8), (10, -2), (5, 8), (5, -2)}
P(M) = P(10, 8) + P(10, -2) + P(5, 8) + P(5, -2)
= .20 + .08 + .16 + .26
= .70

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 Events and Their Probabilities

 Example: Bradley Investments

Event C = Collins Mining Profitable

C = {(10, 8), (5, 8), (0, 8), (-20, 8)}
P(C) = P(10, 8) + P(5, 8) + P(0, 8) + P(-20, 8)
= .20 + .16 + .10 + .02
= .48

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 Some Basic Relationships of Probability

There are some basic probability relationships that

can be used to compute the probability of an event
without knowledge of all the sample point probabilities.

Complement of an Event

Union of Two Events

Intersection of Two Events

Mutually Exclusive Events

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 Complement of an Event

The complement of event A is defined to be the event

consisting of all sample points that are not in A.

The complement of A is denoted by Ac.

Sample
Event A Ac Space S

Venn
Diagram

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 Union of Two Events

The union of events A and B is the event containing

all sample points that are in A or B or both.

The union of events A and B is denoted by A B

Sample
Event A Event B Space S

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 Union of Two Events

 Example: Bradley Investments

Event M = Markley Oil Profitable

Event C = Collins Mining Profitable
M C = Markley Oil Profitable
or Collins Mining Profitable (or both)
M C = {(10, 8), (10, -2), (5, 8), (5, -2), (0, 8), (-20, 8)}
P(M C) = P(10, 8) + P(10, -2) + P(5, 8) + P(5, -2)
+ P(0, 8) + P(-20, 8)
= .20 + .08 + .16 + .26 + .10 + .02
= .82

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 Intersection of Two Events

The intersection of events A and B is the set of all

sample points that are in both A and B.

The intersection of events A and B is denoted by A 

Sample
Event A Event B Space S

Intersection of A and B
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 Intersection of Two Events

 Example: Bradley Investments

Event M = Markley Oil Profitable

Event C = Collins Mining Profitable
M C = Markley Oil Profitable
and Collins Mining Profitable
M C = {(10, 8), (5, 8)}
P(M C) = P(10, 8) + P(5, 8)
= .20 + .16
= .36

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 Addition Law

The addition law provides a way to compute the

probability of event A, or B, or both A and B occurring.

The law is written as:

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A  B

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 Addition Law

 Example: Bradley Investments

Event M = Markley Oil Profitable

Event C = Collins Mining Profitable
M C = Markley Oil Profitable
or Collins Mining Profitable
We know: P(M) = .70, P(C) = .48, P(M C) = .36
Thus: P(M  C) = P(M) + P(C) - P(M  C)
= .70 + .48 - .36
= .82
(This result is the same as that obtained earlier
using the definition of the probability of an event.)
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 Mutually Exclusive Events

Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if the

events have no sample points in common.

Two events are mutually exclusive if, when one event

occurs, the other cannot occur.

Sample
Event A Event B Space S

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 Mutually Exclusive Events

If events A and B are mutually exclusive, P(A  B = 0.

The addition law for mutually exclusive events is:

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)

There is no need to
include “- P(A  B”

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 Conditional Probability

The probability of an event given that another event

has occurred is called a conditional probability.

The conditional probability of A given B is denoted

by P(A|B).

A conditional probability is computed as follows :

P( A  B)
P( A|B) 
P( B)

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 Conditional Probability

 Example: Bradley Investments

Event M = Markley Oil Profitable

Event C = Collins Mining Profitable
P(C | M ) = Collins Mining Profitable
given Markley Oil Profitable
We know: P(M C) = .36, P(M) = .70
P(C  M ) .36
Thus: P(C | M )    .5143
P( M ) .70

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 Multiplication Law

The multiplication law provides a way to compute the

probability of the intersection of two events.

The law is written as:

P(A B) = P(B)P(A|B)

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 Multiplication Law

 Example: Bradley Investments

Event M = Markley Oil Profitable
Event C = Collins Mining Profitable
M C = Markley Oil Profitable
and Collins Mining Profitable
We know: P(M) = .70, P(C|M) = .5143
Thus: P(M  C) = P(M)P(M|C)
= (.70)(.5143)
= .36
(This result is the same as that obtained earlier
using the definition of the probability of an event.)
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 Joint Probability Table

Collins Mining
Markley Oil Profitable (C) Not Profitable (Cc) Total

Profitable (M) .36 .34 .70

Not Profitable (Mc) .12 .18 .30

Total .48 .52 1.00

Joint Probabilities
(appear in the body
Marginal Probabilities
of the table)
(appear in the margins
of the table)

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 Independent Events

If the probability of event A is not changed by the

existence of event B, we would say that events A
and B are independent.

Two events A and B are independent if:

P(A|B) = P(A) or P(B|A) = P(B)

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 Multiplication Law
for Independent Events
The multiplication law also can be used as a test to see
if two events are independent.

The law is written as:

P(A B) = P(A)P(B)

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 Multiplication Law
for Independent Events
 Example: Bradley Investments

Event M = Markley Oil Profitable

Event C = Collins Mining Profitable
Are events M and C independent?
Does P(M  C) = P(M)P(C) ?
We know: P(M  C) = .36, P(M) = .70, P(C) = .48
But: P(M)P(C) = (.70)(.48) = .34, not .36
Hence: M and C are not independent.

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 Mutual Exclusiveness and Independence

Do not confuse the notion of mutually exclusive

events with that of independent events.

Two events with nonzero probabilities cannot be

both mutually exclusive and independent.

If one mutually exclusive event is known to occur,

the other cannot occur.; thus, the probability of the
other event occurring is reduced to zero (and they
are therefore dependent).

Two events that are not mutually exclusive, might

or might not be independent.
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 Bayes’ Theorem

 Often we begin probability analysis with initial or

prior probabilities.
 Then, from a sample, special report, or a product
test we obtain some additional information.
 Given this information, we calculate revised or
posterior probabilities.
 Bayes’ theorem provides the means for revising the
prior probabilities.
Application
Prior New Posterior
of Bayes’
Probabilities Information Probabilities
Theorem

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 Bayes’ Theorem

 Example: L. S. Clothiers
A proposed shopping center will provide strong
competition for downtown businesses like L. S.
Clothiers. If the shopping center is built, the owner
of L. S. Clothiers feels it would be best to relocate to
the shopping center.
The shopping center cannot be built unless a
zoning change is approved by the town council.
The planning board must first make a
recommendation, for or against the zoning change,
to the council.

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 Prior Probabilities

 Example: L. S. Clothiers
Let:
A1 = town council approves the zoning change
A2 = town council disapproves the change

Using subjective judgment:

P(A1) = .7, P(A2) = .3

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 New Information

 Example: L. S. Clothiers
The planning board has recommended against
the zoning change. Let B denote the event of a
negative recommendation by the planning board.
Given that B has occurred, should L. S. Clothiers
revise the probabilities that the town council will
approve or disapprove the zoning change?

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 Conditional Probabilities

 Example: L. S. Clothiers
Past history with the planning board and the town
council indicates the following:

P(B|A1) = .2 P(B|A2) = .9

Hence: P(BC|A1) = .8 P(BC|A2) = .1

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 Tree Diagram

 Example: L. S. Clothiers

Town Council Planning Board Experimental

Outcomes

P(B|A1) = .2
P(A1  B) = .14
P(A1) = .7
c
P(B |A1) = .8 P(A1  Bc) = .56

P(B|A2) = .9
P(A2  B) = .27
P(A2) = .3
c
P(B |A2) = .1 P(A2  Bc) = .03

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 Bayes’ Theorem

 To find the posterior probability that event Ai will

occur given that event B has occurred, we apply
Bayes’ theorem.

P( Ai )P( B| Ai )
P( Ai |B) 
P( A1 )P( B| A1 )  P( A2 )P( B| A2 )  ...  P( An )P( B| An )

 Bayes’ theorem is applicable when the events for

which we want to compute posterior probabilities
are mutually exclusive and their union is the entire
sample space.

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 Posterior Probabilities

 Example: L. S. Clothiers
Given the planning board’s recommendation not
to approve the zoning change, we revise the prior
probabilities as follows:

P( A1 )P( B| A1 )
P( A1 |B) 
P( A1 )P( B| A1 )  P( A2 )P( B| A2 )
(. 7 )(. 2 )

(. 7 )(. 2 )  (. 3)(. 9)
= .34

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 Posterior Probabilities

 Example: L. S. Clothiers
The planning board’s recommendation is good
news for L. S. Clothiers. The posterior probability of
the town council approving the zoning change is .34
compared to a prior probability of .70.

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 Bayes’ Theorem: Tabular Approach

 Example: L. S. Clothiers
• Step 1
Prepare the following three columns:
Column 1 - The mutually exclusive events for
which posterior probabilities are desired.
Column 2 - The prior probabilities for the events.
Column 3 - The conditional probabilities of the
new information given each event.

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 Bayes’ Theorem: Tabular Approach

 Example: L. S. Clothiers
• Step 1
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Prior Conditional
Events Probabilities Probabilities
Ai P(Ai) P(B|Ai)
A1 .7 .2
A2 .3 .9
1.0

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 Bayes’ Theorem: Tabular Approach

 Example: L. S. Clothiers
• Step 2
Prepare the fourth column:
Column 4
Compute the joint probabilities for each event and
the new information B by using the multiplication
law.
Multiply the prior probabilities in column 2 by
the corresponding conditional probabilities in
column 3. That is, P(Ai IB) = P(Ai) P(B|Ai).

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 Bayes’ Theorem: Tabular Approach

 Example: L. S. Clothiers
• Step 2
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Prior Conditional Joint
Events Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities
Ai P(Ai) P(B|Ai) P(Ai I B)

A1 .7 .2 .14
A2 .3 .9 .27
.7 x .2
1.0

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 Bayes’ Theorem: Tabular Approach

 Example: L. S. Clothiers
• Step 2 (continued)
We see that there is a .14 probability of the town
council approving the zoning change and a
negative recommendation by the planning board.
There is a .27 probability of the town council
disapproving the zoning change and a negative
recommendation by the planning board.

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Slide 57
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
 Bayes’ Theorem: Tabular Approach

 Example: L. S. Clothiers
• Step 3
Sum the joint probabilities in Column 4. The
sum is the probability of the new information,
P(B). The sum .14 + .27 shows an overall
probability of .41 of a negative recommendation
by the planning board.

© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 58
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
 Bayes’ Theorem: Tabular Approach

 Example: L. S. Clothiers
• Step 3
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Prior Conditional Joint
Events Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities
Ai P(Ai) P(B|Ai) P(Ai I B)
A1 .7 .2 .14
A2 .3 .9 .27
1.0 P(B) = .41

© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 59
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
 Bayes’ Theorem: Tabular Approach

 Example: L. S. Clothiers
• Step 4
Prepare the fifth column:
Column 5
Compute the posterior probabilities using the
basic relationship of conditional probability.
P( Ai  B)
P( Ai | B) 
P( B)
The joint probabilities P(Ai I B) are in column 4
and the probability P(B) is the sum of column 4.

© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 60
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
 Bayes’ Theorem: Tabular Approach

 Example: L. S. Clothiers
• Step 4
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Prior Conditional Joint Posterior
Events Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities
Ai P(Ai) P(B|Ai) P(Ai I B) P(Ai |B)

A1 .7 .2 .14 .3415
A2 .3 .9 .27 .6585
1.0 P(B) = .41 1.0000
.14/.41
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Slide 61
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
 Example: Incidence of a rare disease
Only 1 in 1000 adults is afflicted with a rare
disease for which a diagnostic test has been
developed. The test is such that when an
individual actually has a disease, a positive
result will occur 99% of the time, whereas an
individual without the disease will show a
positive test result only 2% of the time. If a
randomly selected individual is tested and the
result is positive, what is the probability that the
individual has the disease?

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62 Slide 62
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