Chapter 6 focuses on the relationship between population dynamics and economic
development, exploring whether rapid population growth hinders progress and how
family size decisions are influenced by poverty and financial insecurity. It also touches
on the significant impact of improving the role and status of women on development
prospects.
Global Population Trends and Challenges
o World population has seen substantial growth, projected to reach 9.2 billion by
2050 from 6.89 billion in 2010. While Asia and the Pacific continue to hold the
largest share, Africa's population share is expected to increase significantly by
2050.
o Most developing nations still have higher birth rates (15 to 40 per 1,000)
compared to developed countries (less than 15 per 1,000).
o However, there has been a notable decline in fertility over the past three
decades in many developing countries, including those experiencing rapid
economic and social development like Taiwan, South Korea, and China, as
well as those with less rapid growth such as Mexico and Bangladesh, or even
stagnating economies like Zimbabwe.
o Despite these declines, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) remains very high in
sub-Saharan Africa (5.3) and western Asia (3.1). For instance, Bangladesh
achieved a significant fertility drop to 2.3 by 2008 from over 6 births per
woman in 1971, whereas Pakistan's TFR only fell to 4.0 in the same period.
o The continuing vulnerability to issues like hunger was highlighted by the
2007–2008 food price spike, which saw the number of malnourished people
globally surpass one billion for the first time.
Theories of Population Growth in Development
o Demographic Transition: This model describes a three-stage process where
population growth rates shift from high birth and death rates (stagnant growth)
to a rapid-growth stage (high birth, low death rates), and finally to a stable,
low-growth stage (low birth and death rates). In most developing countries, the
second stage has been characterized by population growth rates exceeding
2.0% per annum due to persistently high birth rates.
o Malthusian Population Trap: This theory, anticipated by Thomas Malthus,
suggests a threshold population level at which population growth (geometric
rate) inevitably outstrips the growth of life-sustaining resources (arithmetic
rate), causing per capita income to fall back to subsistence levels.
o Microeconomic Theory of Fertility: This approach explains desired family
size based on factors such as household income, the net price of children, the
prices of other goods relative to children, and parental preferences for goods
versus children. As income rises, parents may choose to spend more on each
child, preferring a smaller number of "higher quality" children (e.g., healthier,
better educated).
Policy Implications for Addressing Population Growth
o Socioeconomic Progress and Fertility Decline: The sources emphasize that
social and economic progress is most effective in lowering fertility rates,
especially among the very poor, when the benefits are broadly shared. A key
factor is an increase in the education of women and a consequent change in
their role and status. Lower fertility, in turn, allows families and governments
to invest more in the health and education of each child, fostering a virtuous
cycle.
o Comprehensive Policy Approach: A realistic approach to population growth
in developing countries requires addressing not only population variables
themselves but also underlying social and economic conditions. High priority
should be given to problems such as absolute poverty, gross inequality,
widespread unemployment (especially among women), limited female
access to education, malnutrition, and poor health facilities.
o Government Interventions: Governments can implement policies to
influence family size decisions through incentives and disincentives. However,
coercive measures, such as India's forced-sterilization program in the 1970s,
have proven morally repugnant and politically unacceptable. China's one-child
policy is presented as a comprehensive example of state-enforced incentives
and disincentives.
o Role of Developed Countries: Rich countries and multilateral donor agencies
can assist developing countries by providing expanded financial aid, improving
trade relations (e.g., tariff- and quota-free access to markets), facilitating
appropriate technology transfers, and ensuring a more equitable sharing of the
world's scarce natural resources.
