PMP Study Notes
PMP Study Notes
BY
TASLEEM-UZ ZAMAN
zamant.ca
Copyright © 2015 by zamant.ca
All rights are reserved, and information in this book are copyrighted to
zamant.ca 2015. No part of this Book may be reproduced or transmitted in
any form or by any means without the express permission from the author.
http://zamant.ca
[email protected]
Study Notes for Preparing PMP Exam have been designed to assist you in your studies
and pass the PMP exam.
There was a dire need to help the people who want to pass the PMP exam in first attempt.
These Study Notes really help those who do not want to read books and also spend
money to prepare PMP exam. This Study Notes book contains skimmed description of
every topics of Project Management field based on the fifth edition of the PMBOK Guide.
While preparing these Study Notes for PMP Exam reparation, I dug out for brief and
comprehensive information on each topics from the following resources: A guide to the
Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® GUIDE), PMP® Exam Prep Eighth
Edition by Rita Mulcahy’s™, PMP® Exam Prep Revised Fifth Edition by Christopher
Scordo, Project Management Basics courses by SAIT, Internet Resources such as PM
Study Circle, and discussion with numbers of friends and arranged them according to all
knowledge areas in form of these Study Notes. Furthermore, blind learning chapter at
the end will help you to memorize the formula and ITTO. I can assure you if you study
these notes, and do the Questions from Questions Bank for Preparing PMP Exam then
there is no need to purchase costly books to prepare the PMP Exam and you will pass
this exam in first attempt.
I hope you will find these Study Notes useful for your studies.
I welcome your comments and feedback on this book. You can send me an email if you
need any assistance or clarification; I’ll always be available for you.
Thank you.
Regards,
Tasleem-uz Zaman (Master of Honors)
[email protected]
CHAPTER 1: PROJECT FRAMEWORK
Program Management:
The application of knowledge, skills, tools, and techniques to a program to meet the
program requirements and to obtain benefits and control not available by managing
projects individually.
Project Management:
Project management is the administration and supervision of projects using a well-
defined set of knowledge, skills, tools, and techniques.
Subproject:
A manageable component of a project
May be performed by a separate organization
Could be a project phase
Subprojects are typically referred to as projects and managed as such
Figure 1-1 Portfolio, Program and Projects
Project Management Office (PMO): it centralizes and standardises the
management of project.
A management structure that standardizes the project-related governance
processes and facilitates the sharing of resources, methodologies, tools and
techniques.
Provides dedicated training, enterprise-wide project management software,
coordinates overall project quality standards.
PMO may have the authority to act as an integral stakeholder and a key decision
maker through the life of the project
Functional Organization:
In functional organization structure, the organization is grouped into various departments;
e.g. sales department, marketing department and finance department. A Functional
Organization structure is a hierarchical type of organizational structure wherein people
are grouped as per their area of specialization and supervised by the functional manager
with expertise in the same field, so that their skills can be effectively utilized and the
organization’s objective can be achieved.
Here, all authority, budget allocation, and decision making power stays with the functional
manager. A project manager has no role in this type of structure. Even if he exists, his
role will be very limited and he has to ask the functional manager for his requirements.
Here, a project manager may have the title of a coordinator or an expeditor.
The Functional Organizational structure is suitable for an organization which has ongoing
operations such as manufacturing and production operations.
In functional organizations, the organization is divided into various specific departments;
e.g. human resource, marketing, finance, operations, etc. Each department will have its
own department head and he will be responsible for the performance of his section. This
helps control the quality and uniformity of performance. (Figure 1-4)
Project
Chief Coordination
Executive
Chief
Executive
Organization Division:
1. Operational
2. Middle Management
3. Strategic
Transition Requirements:
Describes the things necessary to ensure a smooth change, which may include:
1. Training
2. Organization change
3. Rollout plan
Project Life Cycle:
The series of phases that a project passes through from its initiation to its closure.
Figure 1-6. Project Life Cycle
Cost and staffing levels are low at the start, peak as the work is carried out, and drop
rapidly as the project draws to a close.
Figure 1-10. Impact of Variable Based on Project Progress
Risk and uncertainty are greatest at the start of the project. These factors decrease over
the life of the project as decisions are reached and as deliverables are accepted.
Project Phases:
Phase-to-Phase Relationship Types:
a. Sequential Relationship
b. Overlapping Relationship
A form of project life cycle in which the project scope, and the time and cost required to
deliver that scope, are determined as early in the life cycle as possible. These project
proceed through a series of sequential or overlapping phases, with each phase generally
focusing on a subset of project activities and project management processes. The work
performed in each phase is usually different in nature to that in the preceding and
subsequent phases, therefore, the makeup and skills required of the project team may
vary from phase to phase.
2. Iterative and Incremental Life Cycles:
A project life cycle where the project scope is generally determined early in the project
life cycle, but time and cost estimates are routinely modified as the project team’s
understanding of the product increases, iterations develop the product through a series
of repeated cycle, while increments successively add to the functionality of the product.
3. Adaptive Life Cycles or Agile Method:
A project life cycle, also known as change-driven or agile methods, that is intended to
facilitate change and require a high degree of ongoing stakeholder involvement. Adaptive
life cycles are also iterative and incremental, but differ in that iterations are very rapid
(usually 2-4 weeks in length) and are fixed in group techniques and quality management
and control tools.
CHAPTER 2: PROFESSIONAL RESPONSIBILITY
Planning
Closing
Initiating
Executing
As you may have noticed, the Planning and Executing processes are a continuous cycle.
As the project plan is executed, more planning is often required. You also may have
noticed that the Monitoring and Controlling Processes interfaces with and affects the other
four processes.
Table 3-1 Project Management Knowledge Areas:
There are 10 Project management knowledge areas.
Area Function
Project Integration Management Unifying and coordinating the many
different facets of the project
Project Scope Management Determining what work is needed to
complete the project successfully and
ensuring that work(and only that work) is
performed
Project Time Management Estimating how long the work will take,
planning when the work will be
performed, and making sure the work is
done according to schedule
Project Cost Management Estimating how much it will cost to
perform the work and ensuring that the
work is done within budget
Project Quality Management Ensuring that the work is done in a way
that it meets agreed-upon specifications
Project Human Resources Management Assigning and managing the people who
will do the work
Project Communication Management Making sure that the right project
information is shared with the right people
at the right time
Project Risk Management Predicting and mitigating project
problems and opportunities
Project Procurement Management Finding and buying outside resources
needed to perform the work
Project Stakeholders Management Identify, plan, manage and control
stakeholder
Initiating: 2 processes
Planning: 24 processes
Execution: 8 processes
Monitoring & Controlling: 11 processes
Closing: 2 processes
Table 3-2. Summary of all 47 processes
Integration(6) 1 1 1 2 1
Scope(6) 4 2
Time(7) 6 1
Cost(4) 3 1
Quality(3) 1 1 1
HR(4) 1 3
Communication(3) 1 1 1
Risk(6) 5 1
Procurement(4) 1 1 1 1
Stakeholder(4) 1 1 1 1
Table 3-3. Project Management Process Group and Knowledge Area Mapping:
SCOPE
COST TIME
CHAPTER 4: PROJECT INTEGRATION MANAGEMETN
Project Integration Management:
Includes the processes and activities needed to identify, define, combine, unify, &
coordinate the various processes & project management activities within the
project management process groups.
Includes characteristics of unification, consolidation, articulation & integrative
actions that are crucial to project successful completion
Primarily concerned with effectively integrating the processes among the project
management process groups that are required to accomplish project objectives
within an organization’s defined procedures.
Inputs:
1. Project Statement of Work (SOW): A narrative description of product, services or
results to be delivered by a project or a written description of the deliverables supplied by
the project.
For internal projects, the project initiator or sponsor provides the statement of work based
on business need, product, or services requirements. For external project, the statement
of work can be received from the customer as part of a bid document (e.g., a request for
proposal, request for information, or request for bid) or as a part of contract. The SOW
references the following:
Business Need
Product Scope Description
Strategic Plan
2. Business Case:
Business Case, describes the necessary information from a business standpoint to
determine whether or not the project is worth investment. It’s usually a result of one of the
following:
Market Demand
Legal Requirement
Organizational Need
Ecological Impact
Customer Request
Social Need
Technological Advance
3. Agreements: contracts, Service Level Agreements (SLA), letter of agreements, letter
intents, etc.
4. Enterprise Environmental Factors: Environment:
The definition of Environment is “Relating to the natural world and the impact of human
activity on its condition”. From the definition itself it is clear that the Environment is a
condition which influences us or our behavior in a certain way.
For example, in cold weather we need to wear woolen clothes to keep ourselves safe
from the cold. Hence, cold weather is the Environment which forces us to wear woolen
clothes. This is the impact of this cold environment on us.
In the same way, Enterprise Environmental Factors influence the project’s outcome, and
organisations have to live and work within it. Enterprise Environmental Factors can be
either internal or external.
Some examples of Enterprise Environmental Factors are:
Organizational culture
Type of organization structure
Internal & external political conditions
Infrastructure
Government regulations
Market conditions, etc.
Figure 4-2. Environmental Factors
5. Organizational Process Assets:
The definition of Assets is “A useful or valuable thing or property owned by a person or
company, regarded as having value and available to meet debts, commitments, or
legacies.” Assets are something that we can own, keep and use for our benefits; for
example, we can have a car by which we can move around, we can have house to live
in, computers to work on, etc. These things; i.e. car, house, computers, etc. are called
Assets.
In the same manner, organisations also have Assets, which they call Organisational
Process Assets, and are stored in some central repository so that they could be used
whenever required by anyone.
For example:
Policies
Procedures
Standard templates
Stakeholder register
Risk register
Lesson learned
Historical information, etc.
Outputs:
Project Charter, usually includes
Project Purpose/Justification
Measurable Project Objectives
High-level requirements
Assumptions and Constraints
High level project description and boundaries
High level Risks
Summary budget & milestones
Initial Stakeholder List
Project Approval Requirements
Assigned Project Manager
Name and Authority of the sponsor
Figure 4-4. SAMPLE PROJECT CHARTER
4-2 Develop Project Management Plan
The process of defining, preparing, coordinating and integrating all subsidiary
plans.
The key benefit is a central document that defines the basis of all project work.
Project Plan defines how the project will be executed, monitored and controlled,
and closed.
Inputs:
1. Project Charter
2. Outputs from other planning processes
3. Enterprise Environmental Factors
4. Organization Process Assets
Schedule baseline:
It is the approved version of a schedule model that can be changed only through formal
change control procedures and is used as a basis for comparison to actual results. It is
accepted and approved by the appropriate stakeholders as the schedule baseline with
baseline start dates and finish dates. During monitoring and controlling, the approved
baseline dates are compared to the actual start and finish dates to determine whether
variance have occurred. The schedule base line is a component of the project
management plan.
Cost baseline: The cost baseline is the approved version of the time phased project
budget, excluding any management reserves, which can only be changed through formal
change control procedure and is used as a basis for comparison to actual results. It is
developed as a summation of the approved budget for the different schedule activities.
Figure 4-6. Various components of the project budget and cost base line
4-3 Direct and Manage Project Work:
The process of performing the work defined in the project plan to achieve the project's
objectives or integrate the efforts to produce the product deliverables.
It includes but are not limited to:
Activities to accomplish requirements
Create project deliverables
Staff, train & manage project team members
Establish and manage project communication channels
Generate project data (e.g. cost, schedule, technical and quality progress)
Issue change requests
Manage risks
Manage sellers and suppliers
Direct and Manage Project Work also required review of the impact of all project
changes and the implementation of approved changes:
1. Correct action: to realign the performance of the project work to the project
plan
2. Preventive action: to ensure future performance to align with project plan
3. Defect repair: to modify a non-conforming deliverable
Inputs:
1. Project Management Plan
2. Approved Change Requests
3. Enterprise Environmental Factors
4. Organization Process Assets
Tools and Techniques:
1. Expert Judgment
2. Project Management Information Systems
3. Meetings
You can see that the Work Performance Information is an output of various controlling
processes, and input to monitor and Control Project Work where it is used to generate
the Performance Report.
This was all about the Work Performance Data and Work Performance Information.
Before I complete this blog post, let’s revisit some key points:
Work Performance Data is the “as of now” status of the project status, it provides
the current status of the project, and Work Performance Information is a
comparison between the actual performance with the planned performance.
Examples of Work Performance Data are the actual cost spent, actual time
elapsed, etc. Examples of Work Performance Information are Cost Variance,
Schedule Variance, Cost Performance Index, and Schedule Performance Index,
etc.
Performance Reports:
“Performance reports organize and summarize the information gathered, and present the
results of any analysis as compared to performance measured baselines.”
In other words, the Performance Report organizes, and summarizes the information
collected during the Work Performance Information, and Work Performance
Measurement. Then it represent to stakeholders in such a way that they can understand
the direction the project is going. From the Performance Report, stakeholders can see
the project performance, and current status. If the project is not going as it was planned
then stakeholders may decide for any corrective action such as if any extra fund,
resource, or time extension should be given to complete the project.
The format and type of Performance Reports are dependent on the stakeholders’ needs
and requirements and whether they want a detailed report, or just a summary.
Inputs:
1. Project Management Plan
2. Schedule Forecasts (ETC)
3. Cost Forecasts (ETC, BAC)
4. Validated Change Requests (including corrective and/or preventive actions and
defect repair)
5. Work Performance Information (SPI, CPI, CV, SV, etc.)
6. Enterprise Environmental Factors (Government or industry standards, work
authorization system, stakeholder risk tolerances, etc.)
7. Organizational Process Assets
Tools and Techniques:
1. Analytical Techniques:
These techniques are applied in project management to forecast potential outcomes
based on possible variations of project or environmental variables and their relationships
with other variables. Examples of analytical techniques used in the projects are:
1. Regression analysis
2. Grouping analysis
3. Causal analysis
4. Root cause analysis
5. Forecasting methods (e.g., time series, scenario building, simulation, etc.)
6. Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA)
7. Fault tree analysis (FTA)
8. Reserve analysis
9. Trend analysis
10. Earned value management
11. Variance analysis
2. Expert Judgment
3. Project Management Information Systems
4. Meetings
Outputs:
1. Change Requests
2. Work Performance Reports
3. Project Management Plan Updates
4. Project Documents Updates
4-5 Perform Integrated Change Control:
The process of reviewing all change requests, approving changes & managing
changes to: the deliverables, organizational process assets, project documents &
the project management plan.
Change Control Board (CCB) is responsible for approving or rejecting change
requests
Roles and responsibilities of CCB are defined within configuration control and
change control procedure
Inputs:
1. Project Management Plan
2. Work Performance Reports
3. Change Requests
4. Enterprise Environmental Factors
5. Organizational Process Assets
Tools and Techniques:
1. Expert Judgment
2. Meetings
3. Change Control Tools
Outputs:
1. Approved/Rejected Change Requests
2. Change Log
3. Project Management Plan Updates
4. Project Documents Updates
4-6 Close Project:
The process of finalizing al activities across all of the project management
process groups to formally close the project or phase
Provide lessons learned, formal ending of project work and release of
organization resources to pursue new endeavors.
Inputs:
1. Project Management Plan
2. Accepted Deliverables
3. Organizational Process Assets (lessons learned, project documents, Acceptance
records, etc.)
Tools and Techniques:
1. Expert Judgment
2. Analytical Techniques
3. Meetings
Outputs:
1. Final Product, Service, or Result Transition
2. Organizational Process Assets Updates (Project files, closure documents,
historical information, etc.)
PROJECT SELCTION METHODS:
1. Benefit measurement (Comparative approach)
Murder board (a panel of people who shoot down a new project ideas)
Peer review
Scoring model
Economic model
Present value
Net present value
IRR (Internal rate of return)
Payback period
Cost benefit analysis
Special Note:
Project File: Part of the Organizational Process Asset, includes Project management
plan, Scope, Schedule, cost, Project calendar, Risk register and other registers, Change
management plan, Plan risk responses action and impact.
Archive: All the project document goes into the archives. The archive is the last thing to
create before releasing the remaining team members in clos project phase.
* Project objectives deal with both project and product objectives in the charter
must be measureable.
CHAPTER 5: PROJECT SCOPE MANAGEMENT
Scope:
Scope refers to all the work involved in creating the deliverables of the project and the
processes used to create them.
Project scope management: It includes the processes required to ensure that the
project includes all the work required, and only the work required, to complete the project
successfully.
Project Scope: The work that needs to be accomplished to deliver a product, service,
or result with the specified features and functions.
Product Scope:
The Product Scope is the characteristics, features, or function of the product, service, or
result. It is the outcome of the project. The Product Scope is all about the product: how
will it look like, how will it function, etc.
Got it? If not, don’t worry. Just keep on reading…
Let me explain this to you by our trademark school building example.
The client comes and asks you to construct a school building for him. He gave you his
requirements like what would be the size of the school building, how many rooms it will
have, size of the playground, number of toilets, color of painting, when he needs it, etc.
You take the project and start working on it. You make the plan, create the schedule, and
estimate the budget. Subsequently, you move on to the execution part. You bring workers
to the site and start constructing the school building. You complete the project and verify
with client that the school building is as per his requirements. Then you hand over the
school building to the client, get the payment, and the project is closed.
In the above example, there are two parts: in the first part client asks you to make a school
building for him and gives you his requirements (characteristics). This school building is
the Product and the requirements for this product are known as Scope. Therefore, in the
first part, what he gave you is the Product Scope.
In the second part, you work to construct the school building within the given time, and
budget, meeting all the client’s requirements by following the project management plans.
Lastly, you deliver it to the client. In this part, what you have done to construct the school
building, is the Project Scope.
This was all about the Project Scope and the product scope. Now I believe that you can
go for the PMP Certification exam with no worries about having any doubt regarding the
difference between Project Scope vs Product Scope
Inputs:
1. Project Management Plan: it defines how the project is executed, monitored,
controlled and closed. It integrates all plan components.
2. Project Charter
3. Enterprise Environmental Factors
4. Organizational Process Assets
Output:
1. Scope Management Plan. It includes:
Process for preparing a detailed project scope statement.
Process to enable the creation of WBS
Process to establish how the WBS will be managed
Define formal acceptance criteria of deliverables
How change requests will be applied to scope
2. Requirements Management Plan: describes how requirements will be analyzed,
documented, and managed. It includes, but not limited to:
How requirements activities will be planned, tracked and reported.
Configuration management activities.
Requirements prioritization process.
Product metrics
Traceability structure
Inputs:
1. Scope Management Plan
2. Project charter
3. Requirements Document
4. Organizational Process Assets
Procedures & Templates
Historical Data
Lessons learned from old Projects
Tools and Techniques:
1. Expert Judgment
2. Product Analysis
3. Alternatives Identification
4. Facilitated workshops
Outputs:
1. Project Scope Statement: describes project’s deliverables and the work
required to create those deliverables. It is a description of project scope, major
deliverable, assumptions, and constraints.
2. Project documents updates
Figure 5-6. Elements of the Project Charter and Project Scope Statement
5-4 Create WBS
Subdividing the project deliverables and project work into smaller and more
manageable components.
The work breakdown structure is a deliverable-oriented hierarchical decomposition
of project work.
Inputs:
1. Scope Management Plan
2. Project Scope Statement
3. Requirements Document
4. Enterprise Environmental Factors
5. Organizational Process Assets
Tools and Techniques:
1. Decomposition: The subdivision of project deliverables into smaller, more
manageable components. The work package level is the lowest level in the WBS,
and is the point at which the cost an activity durations can be reliably estimated
and managed. The level of detail for work packages will vary with the size and
complexity of the project.
2. Expert Judgment
Outputs:
1. Scope Baseline
Project Scope Statement
WBS
WBS Dictionary (A description of work to be done for each work package.)
2. Project Documents updates
Inputs:
1. Project Management Plan
Scope baseline
Scope management plan
Change management plan
Configuration management plan
Requirements management plan
2. Requirements Documentation
3. Requirements Traceability Matrix
4. Work Performance Data
5. Organizational Process Assets
Tools and Techniques:
1. Variance Analysis (Analyze performance measurements to assess the variation
from the baseline scope. Analysis should determine the cause and degree of
variance).
Outputs:
1. Work Performance Information
2. Change Requests
3. Project Management Plan Updates
4. Project Document Updates
5. Organizational Process Asset Updates
SPECIAL NOTE:
Project scope management involves the entire work of the project, including the
product scope.
The lowest level of WBS is a work package, which can be completed more than
one person.
The heuristic (general rule) we use in project decomposition is 80 hours for a
medium sized project. It does not matter how experience the team members.
Context Diagram: it shows boundaries of the product scope and its interfaces with
people, process or system.
WBS is used in many different processes but is not integral to the perform quality
assurance.
WBS Dictionary contains agreement information, code of account identifier and list
of schedule milestones. It does not contain resource assigned.
A hidden requirement is the one that the user or the customer fails to communicate
or take for granted. Hidden requirements can be identified by a "participant
observer" who actually performs a process or procedure to experience how it is
done.
Facilitated workshops bring key cross-functional stakeholders together to define
product requirements. Because of their interactive nature, well-facilitated sessions
lead to increased stakeholder consensus. This ensures that issues can be
discovered and resolved more quickly than in other forums.
Benchmarking is a method of identifying requirements by comparing the
performance of the organization to that of its competition. Interview are most
effective with one, or a small group of stakeholders. Focus groups are most
effective with a group of 6 to 12 stakeholders. For large number of stakeholders’
survey or questionnaire are used.
In multi-criteria decision analysis requirements are ranked based on factors such
as expected risk level, time, cost, and benefit estimates.
Requirement are defined in measureable terms.
Affinity Diagram: Requirement can be sorted into different categories.
The Delphi Technique is one way to achieve unanimity.
WBS Dictionary provides the most help in controlling gold plating.
4/40 and 80/20 rule: 4/40 rule is used for creating WBS for a smaller project,
breaking down of work package of 4 hours and maximum of 40 hour. 80/20 rule is
used for understanding the quality issues. (80 percent of problems are due to 20
percent of root causes).
User story: may be developed in facilitated work shop as a part of the requirement
gathering method-to document the function and features required by the
stakeholder.
Product Validation and Scope Validation: Product Validation: occurs during closing
and is focused on make sure all the work is completed satisfactory. Scope
validation: occurs in Validate Scope Process focus on customer acceptance of
deliverable.
CHAPTER 6: PROJECT TIME MANAGEMENT
Project Time Management:
Includes the processes required to accomplish timely completion of the project;
involved 7 processes used to in developing time schedule
The schedule can have any format
Once project schedule has been reviewed and approved, it is “base lined” and
this original schedule is called the schedule baseline.
2. Finish-to-Finish:
Predecessor activity (C) must finish before successor activity (D) can finish
Figure 6-6. Example of Finish to Finish relationship
3. Start-to-Start:
Predecessor activity (E) must start before the successor activity (F) can start
Figure 6-7. Example of Finish to Finish relationship
Activity A 3 days
Activity B
Lead:
“Amount of time whereby a successor activity can be advanced with respect to a
predecessor activity”
Example: Begin developing prototype one day before design complete
Figure 6-11. Example of Lead
Activity A
Activity B
Outputs:
1. Project Schedule Network Diagrams
Graphical representation of the logical relationships among the Project
Schedule Activities.
Figure 6-12. Project Schedule Network Diagrams
Inputs:
1. Schedule Management Plan
2. Activity List.
3. Activity Attributes
4. Activity Resource Requirements
5. Resource Calendar
6. Scope Statement
7. Risk Register
8. Resource Breakdown Structure
9. Enterprise Environmental Factors
10. Organization Process Assets
Tools and Techniques:
1. Expert Judgment
2. Analogous Estimating (Top-down) - Use actual values of a similar project
3. Parametric Estimating
4. Three-point Estimating
5. Group Decision making techniques
6. Reserve Analysis:
Analytical technique to establish reserve for:
Schedule
Budget
Risks
Can be derived based on percentage, stipulated number of work periods, or
other formula. Contingency should be visible in schedule and budget
Outputs:
1. Activity Duration Estimates: Quantitative estimates of the likely duration of each
activity as well as the range of possible results (10 ± 2 day)
2. Project Document Updates
Techniques to estimates activity duration:
There are three basic techniques most widely used by the project professionals worldwide
to estimate activity duration and build the schedule. Those techniques are as follows:
1. Analogous Estimating
2. Parametric Estimating
3. Three Point Estimates
Analogous Estimating:
The Analogous Estimates process uses analogies from the earlier similar projects. For
example, let’s say you have to estimate the duration of a school building project with the
help of the analogous estimating. In this case, you will look into your organizational
process assets (OPA) for any earlier school building project completed by your
organization and pick the best project, which looks similar to your project.
Once you find the old similar project, you will compare it with your project and use your
expert judgment to find the approximate time duration for your current project.
With the analogous method of estimating, you can estimate the duration of a project very
quickly. This process is not very accurate; however, it is very useful when there is very
little information available for the project and you have to estimate the duration as quickly
as possible.
The accuracy of analogous estimation depends on the degree of similarities between your
project and the project you are comparing it with.
Parametric Estimating:
The Parametric Estimation is somewhat similar to the analogous estimation because it
also uses the past records to compute the duration estimate. However, this approach is
different from the analogous estimation.
The parametric estimation uses historical data and other parameters to calculate the
estimate. For example, if constructing a ten foot wall took one day, then how long will it
take to build a hundred foot of wall? —You will multiply the time taken to build ten foot of
wall in the old project by ten.
Or, if one room is painted in three days in an earlier project, how much time it will take to
paint twenty rooms in this project? —You will multiply the time taken to paint one room in
the old project by twenty to get the required number of days for your project.
The accuracy of the duration estimate obtained from this technique is better than that
from the analogous estimation.
Three Points Estimates:
Under the three-point estimates techniques, the PERT (Program Evolution and Review
Technique) is the most widely used statistical tool to determine the time duration of an
activity.
The PERT is a weighted average technique to determine the approximate duration of an
activity. It uses three time estimates to determine an approximate average duration of an
activity.
Three time estimates are as follows:
Most Likely (Tm): This is the time taken by an activity to finish it in most cases
Optimistic (To): This is the time taken by an activity to finish it in the most favorable
case
Pessimistic (Tp): This is the time taken by an activity to finish it in the worst case
scenario
Once you get these three estimates, you can calculate the PEART Time Estimate by
using the below given formula:
Te = (To + 4Tm + Tp)/6
The duration estimate obtained by this method is more accurate than the rest. Using three
points estimate reduces the chances of risks, bias judgment, and uncertainty.
Key Points:
Analogous Technique:
It is the fastest technique to calculate the estimate; however, less accurate
It can be used when limited information about the project is available
It is also known as Top-Down Estimating
Parametric Technique:
It uses statistical relationships between historical data and variables
It is more accurate than the analogous technique
Three Points Estimates Technique:
It uses three estimates (most likely, optimistic, and pessimistic) to calculate the
average value of activity duration
It reduces the bias, risks and uncertainties from the duration calculation
It is more accurate than the rest
Concepts of activity time to consider:
Effort = Person-hours or person-days
3 people x 16 man-hours = 48 man-hours
Duration = Work periods or work units
Work period = 1 man-day (8 hours per day)
48 man-hours ÷ 8 hours (1 man-day) = 6 man-days
6 man-days ÷ 3 people per day = 2 workdays
Elapsed time = Actual calendar time
Start Friday – 1st Day
Saturday – Weekend – Not workday
Sunday – Weekend – Not workday
Finish Monday – 2nd Day
= 4 elapsed days
6-6 Develop Schedule:
The process of analyzing activity sequence, durations, resource requirements, &
schedule constraints to create a project schedule.
Developing an acceptable schedule is often an iterative process.
Inputs
1. Schedule Management Plan
2. Activity List
3. Activity Attributes
4. Project Schedule Network Diagrams
5. Activity Resource Requirements
6. Resource Calendars
7. Activity Duration Estimates
8. Project Scope Statement
9. Risk Register
10. Project Staff Assignment
11. Resource Breakdown Structure
12. Enterprise Environmental Factors
13. Organizational Process Assets
Tools and Techniques:
1. Schedule Network Analysis
Generates project schedules (Calculates early start, early finish, late start,
and late finish)
Allows path convergence or divergence to be identified and analyzed for
schedule compression
Paint Ceiling
Paint Trim
No Predecessor No successor
The schedule will not be calculated until the loop is eliminated. To eliminate a loop:
DUMMY ACTIVITY:
We use dummy Activity to know duration from first to last activity
5 Days 6 Days 7 Days
Activity A Activity B Activity C
DUMMY ACTIVITY
SCHEDULING CONCEPTS:
FORWARD PASS
BACKWARD PASS
FLOAT
FORWARD PASS:
The forward pass calculates Early Start (ES) and Early Finish (EF) dates for
activities
Early Start = The earliest an activity can start given the logic and constraints of
the path
Early Finish = The earliest an activity can finish given the logic and constraints of
the path
ES Duration EF
Activity A
0 5 5
Activity A
Late Start = The latest an activity can start given the logic and constraints without
delaying the project
Late Finish = The latest an activity can finish given the logic and constraints
without delaying the project
Activity A
LS LF
ES Duration EF
Activity B
LS LF
ES Duration EF
Activity C
LS LF
0 5 5
Activity A
0 5
5 10 15
Activity B
5 15
15 20 35
Activity C
15 35
FLOAT:
Float or slack is the amount of time that a task in a project network can be delayed without
causing a delay to:
Subsequent task (Free Float)
Project completion date (Total Float)
TOTAL FLOAT:
The amount of time an activity can slip from its early Start without delaying the project.
Total Float = Late Finish (LF) – Early Finish (EF) or (LS - ES)
An activity’s Total Float is automatically calculated each time you schedule the project. You
cannot edit an activity’s float values directly.
0 5 5
Activity A
0 0 5
5 10 15
Critical Activity B
Path 5 0 15
From A to C
Due to zero float
15 20 35
Activity C
15 0 35
FREE FLOAT:
The time by which an activity can be delayed without delaying the early start of its
successor activity.
Free float can only occur when two or more activities share a common successor.
Successor
The critical chain can be defined as “the longest path in the network diagram considering
activity interdependence and resource constraints.”
The critical path can be assumed as a particular case of the critical chain when the project
has access to unlimited resources that will never run out.
In other words, you can say that the critical chain method is a modified form of the critical
path method. Here, availability of resources is considered while creating the project
schedule.
In critical chain project management, instead of float, buffers are used. These buffers are
designed in such a way that they completely eliminate the concept of float or slack.
Three types of buffers are used in critical chain management. These buffers are as
follows:
Project Buffer:
This buffer is placed between the last task and the project completion date as a non-
activity buffer, and this buffer acts as a contingency for the critical chain activities. Any
delay on the critical chain will eat this buffer, but the project completion date will remain
unchanged. Also, if there is any gain from the early finish of any activity, this gain will be
added to this buffer as well.
Usually the duration of this buffer is 50% of the contingency that you have removed from
each task estimate. This helps you move uncertainty from each task to the project buffer.
Please note that, although the critical chain starts from the beginning, it ends before the
start of the project buffer. It does not end at the end of the project.
This duration will include any time duration borrowed from the project buffer or exclude
the duration added to the buffer.
Feeding Buffers:
These buffers are added to the non-critical chain so that any delay on the non-critical
chain does not affect the critical chain. They are inserted between the last task on a non-
critical chain and the critical chain.
Feeding buffers are also calculated the same way as the project buffer. The duration of
these buffers is based on some fraction of the safety removed from the tasks on non-
critical chains.
Resource Buffer:
These buffers are kept alongside the critical chain to make sure that they are available
when they are required. This buffer can be a human resource or any equipment.
Please note that, since the critical chain considers the resource constraints as well, it may
be longer than the critical path schedule. However, this might be compensated by
removing the contingencies from the activities.
Figure 6-16. Example of Buffers
◾Float or slack is a critical path phenomenon, and buffer belongs to critical chain.
◾Float is the difference between the duration of the critical path and non-critical path. On
a critical path, float is zero.
◾Buffer is based on contingencies. For example, the project buffer is about 50% of the
safety time that you have removed from the activity estimate duration. As per the definition
of buffer, it is not zero on a critical chain or any other chain.
◾Float is the same for all activities on a non-critical path, any activity can consume it
partially or fully, and balance can be utilized by other activities. There is no further
analysis.
◾Buffer can also be borrowed by any activity if the activity is delayed. The project
manager analyzes the remaining buffer to find the status of the project.
◾Buffer can be divided into three categories: project buffer, feeding buffer and resource
buffer. Float can be either total float or free float.
How to Create the Critical Chain Network Diagram
Three steps are required to create a critical chain from the critical path. These steps
are as follows:
1. Remove all contingencies from activities, regardless of whether you have added the
calculated contingencies or any percentage of it. If you’ve used the PERT (Program
Evaluation and Review Technique) estimate to build the schedule, replace your estimate
with optimistic estimate.
2. Align the activities with late finish dates and remove resource constraints. Give priority
to critical chain activities while assigning resources.
3. Add feeding buffers to non-critical chains so that their durations become equal to the
critical chain. Add project buffer to end of the critical chain, but before the project end
date. The project buffer should be approximately half the contingency you removed from
the activities. This helps improve the efficiency, and reduces the schedule duration.
Now, let’s see a real world example.
Suppose you get a project to construct a building. You build the schedule based on the
critical path method, and start working on it.
However, during the execution of this project, you happen to know that:
◾One of your key team members is pulled out for some other important tasks by
management.
What will happen now?
Of course this will cause a delay in your project.
So, where was the problem?
Did the critical path not identify the resources required by your project?
No, the critical path had identified the resources for your activities.
So, where was the problem?
What did it go wrong?
The problem was with the resource allocation. Although the critical path had identified the
resources, it did not account for the limited availability of resources into the schedule. The
project schedule was developed optimistically, assuming that all resources would be
available whenever they were needed. Unfortunately this could not happen in this case,
putting the project in trouble.
Therefore, to solve these issues, you made some modifications to the critical path,
considering limited resource availability. Now this critical path has been converted to the
critical chain, and it is more realistic.
And now you can complete your project with more confidence.
Before this blog post ends, let’s revisit some key features of critical chain management:
◾The project based on the critical chain method completes 10% to 30% faster than that
based on the critical path method
5 DAYS 3 DAYS
1 2 3 4 5
Day Day Day Day Day
1 2 3 4 5
Day Day Day Day Day
Activity B
7. Schedule Compression: Techniques used to shorten the schedule duration
without reducing the project scope
Crashing: Seek to shorten schedule duration for least incremental cost by
adding resources. (Risk and/or costs may rise)
Jan 5 Jan 25
Activity A
Jan 14
Activity A
Jan 5 Feb 8
Activity A
Feb 9 Feb 26
Activity B
Jan 5 Feb 8
Activity A
Feb 7 Feb 14
Activity B
8. Scheduling Tools
Outputs:
1. Schedule Baseline: The approved version of the schedule model, along with
any approved changes, used to measure project schedule performance.
2. Project Schedule
(Main presentation formats for a schedule):
Milestone Charts
Bar Charts
Schedule Network Diagrams
3. Schedule Data
4. Project Calendar
5. Project Management Plan Updates
6. Project Document Updates
6-7 Control Schedule:
The process of monitoring the status of the project to update project progress
and manage changes to schedule baseline.
Concerned with:
Determine current status
Influence the factors that cause changes
Manage actual changes as they occur
Inputs:
1. Project Management Plan
2. Project Schedule
3. Work Performance Data
4. Project Calendars
5. Schedule Data
6. Organizational Process Assets
Tools and Techniques:
1. Performance Reviews
Trend Analysis
Critical Path Method
Critical Chain Method
Earned Value Management
2. Project Management Software
3. Resource Optimization Techniques
4. Modeling Techniques
5. Leads and Lags
6. Schedule compression
7. Scheduling Tool
Critical Path
Critical Chain
Resource Levelling and Smoothing
Duration compression
Outputs:
1. Work Performance Information
2. Schedule Forecasts
3. Change Requests
4. Project Management Plan Update
Schedule baseline
Schedule Management Plan
Cost baseline
5. Project Document Updates
6. Organizational Process Assets Updates
ATTENTION:
Analogous estimating is gross value estimating technique.
Activity duration estimates should not include any lag or lead information.
While sequencing activities for a project, the project management team applied
certain discretionary dependencies. This was based on their knowledge of best
practices within the project application area. What is the potential risk involved in
using such dependencies? Discretionary dependencies are established based on
the knowledge of best practices within a specific application area. This is done to
achieve a specific sequence even though there are other options. The risk is that
they may create arbitrary float values and later limit scheduling options because of
the specific sequencing chosen.
More interdependencies on project increase the need for communication.
Schedule model: (All the project data will be used to calculate project schedule)
Project Schedule: (Uses project model to develop a project schedule)
Monte Carlo analysis: (Schedule network analysis techniques used to stimulate
the project to determine the project like hood that the project will be completed by
a specific date for a specific cost). It is also used in perform quantitative risk
analysis to determine the overall level of risk on the project). It is form of what if
analysis and it provides the ability to compute the probability to completing the
project on a specific day. We can perform multiple simulation based of three point
estimates by using Monte Carlo analysis.
GERT: Network diagraming technique that allows loops.
Scope change must impact the schedule change.
Discretionary dependency is one that of experience.
A schedule control system can include the paper work, processes and approval
requirements for authorizing changes.
Schedule base line created at the beginning of the project and used during
project to measure performance.
Time estimated for the activities should be created by the team and should not be
added together to create project estimate because some activities may takes place
concurrently; these would be identified in a network diagram.
Resource requirements are determined before project schedule and after
network diagram.
Crashing is a cost/schedule trade off and is less risky than fast tracking.
Benefits of Analogous Project Estimate gives the project team an
understanding of management expectations.
Three point estimating gives an indication of the risk of not meeting your date
CHAPTER 7: PROJECT COST MANAGEMENT
1. Analogous Estimating:
This technique is used to estimate the project cost when very little detail about the project
is available. Therefore, this technique does not provide a very reliable estimation. The
primary benefits of this technique are: it is very fast, less costly, and provides a quick
result.
In Analogous Estimation, the cost of the project is guessed by comparing it with any
similar project previously completed by your organization. Here you will look into your
organization’s historical records (i.e. in Organizational Process Assets) for previously
completed projects. You will select the project which is closest to your project. Once you
get it, by using your expert judgment you will determine the cost estimate of your current
project.
The Analogous Estimating is also known as The Top-Down Estimating.
2. Parametric Estimating:
This technique also uses historical information to calculate the cost estimates. However,
there is a difference between this technique and the analogous estimation technique.
Parametric Estimation technique uses historical information along with statistical data. It
takes variables from the similar project and applies them to the current project. For
example, in the previous project, you will see that what the cost of concreting per cubic
meter was. Then you will calculate the concrete requirement for your project and multiply
it with the cost obtained from the previous project to get the total cost of concreting for
your current project. In the same way you can calculate the cost of other parameters
(men, materials, and equipment) as well.
The accuracy of this process is better than the analogous estimation.
3. Three-Point Estimating:
This technique is used to reduce the biases and uncertainties in estimating assumptions.
Instead of finding one estimate, three estimates are determined and then their average is
taken to reduce the uncertainties, risks, and biases.
PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) is the most commonly used method
in three point estimation technique.
Three PEART estimates are as follows:
Most Likely Cost (Cm): This cost estimate considers everything goes as normal.
Pessimistic Cost (Cp): This considers the worst case and it assumes that almost
everything goes wrong.
Optimistic Cost (Co): This estimate considers the best case and assumes that
everything goes better than planned.
PERT Estimate formula is:
Ce = (Co + 4Cm + Cp)/6
Where, Ce = Expected Cost
Estimates derived from this technique are better than the two techniques discussed above
and provide a more accurate estimate.
4. Bottom-up Estimating:
The Bottom-Up Estimating technique is also known as the “definitive technique”. This
estimation technique is the most accurate, time-consuming, and costly technique to
estimate the cost. In this technique, the cost of each single activity is determined with the
greatest level of detail at the bottom level and then rolls up to calculate the total project
cost.
In other words:
Here, the total project work is broken down into the smallest work components. Its cost
is estimated and then finally, it is aggregated to get the cost estimate of the project.
Summary:
Analogous Estimation
It is the fastest technique to estimate cost but less accurate.
This technique can be used with limited information available about the project.
Parametric Estimation
This technique uses the statistical relationship between historical data and
variables; e.g. cost of painting of wall per square foot.
It is more accurate than the analogous estimation.
Three-point Estimation
This technique uses three estimates to calculate the average estimate. The three
estimates are the most likely cost, the pessimistic cost and the optimistic cost.
It reduces the biases, risks, and uncertainties from the estimation.
It is more accurate than the Analogous and Parametric estimating techniques.
Bottom-up Estimation
This technique is the most accurate technique of all the techniques discussed
above.
This technique can only be used when every detail about the project is available.
This is very time-consuming and costly technique, but gives reliable and most
accurate result.
Contingency Reserves:
Contingency Reserve is the cost or time reserve that is used to manage the identified
risks or “known-unknowns” (known=identified, unknowns=risks). Contingency Reserve is
not a random reserve, it is a properly estimated reserve based on the Expected Monitory
Value (EMV), or the Decision Tree Method.
Contingency Reserve is controlled by the project manager. He has authority to use it
when any identified risk occurs, or he can delegate this authority to the risk owner, who
will use it at an appropriate time and informs the project manager at a later stage.
Management Reserve:
Management Reserve is the cost or time reserve that is used to manage unidentified risks
or “unknown-unknowns” (unknown=unknown, unknowns=risks). Management Reserve is
not an estimated reserve; it is defined as per the organization’s policy. For some
organizations, it is 5% of the total cost or time of the project, and for others it is 10%.
Management Reserve is controlled by someone outside the project team, usually from
the management. Every time an unidentified risk occurs, the project manager has to get
approval from the management to use this reserve.
Here the discussion about the contingency reserve and management reserve finishes,
but before we leave let’s summarize all the key points once again:
Contingency Reserve:
It used to manage identified risks
It is estimated based on Expected Monitory Value (EMV), or decision tree
method
The project manager has authority to use this reserve
Management Reserve:
It is used to manage unidentified risks
It is calculated as a percentage of the cost, or time of project
Management approval is required to use management reserve
Types of Cost: A cost can be either variable or fixed:
Variable Costs: These costs change with the amount of production or the amount of
work. Examples include the cost of material, supplies and wages
Fixed Costs: These costs do not change as production changes, Examples include the
cost of set-up, rent and utilities, etc.
A cost can either direct or indirect:
Direct Costs: These costs are directly attributable to the work on the project. Examples
are team travel, team wages, recognition, and costs of material used on the project.
Indirect Costs: These costs are overhead items or costs incurred for the benefit of
more than one project. Examples include taxes, fringe (marginal, extreme,
unconventional or peripheral) benefits, and janitorial service.
Definitions:
Profit = Revenue – Costs
Profit Margin = Profit / Revenue
Cash flow refers to the movement of cash into or out of the project.
Direct costs are costs that can be directly related to producing the deliverable of
the project: Salaries, cost of hardware & software purchased specifically for the
project
Indirect costs are costs that are not directly related to the deliverable of the
project, but are indirectly related to performing the project, e.g. cost of electricity,
Internet, rent and office supplies.
Reserves are dollars included in a cost estimate to mitigate cost risk by allowing
for future situations that are difficult to predict
1. Sunk cost is money that has been spent in the past; when deciding what projects
to invest in or continue, you should not include sunk costs
a. To continue funding a failed project because a great deal of money has already
been spent on it is not a valid way to decide on which projects to fund
b. Sunk costs should be forgotten
Variable Costs: change with the amount of production (cost of material).
Fixed Costs: do not change with production (rent, setup costs, etc.)
Net present value: the total present value (PV) of a time series of cash flows. It is
a standard method for using the time value of money to appraise long-term projects
Internal Rate of Return: interest rate received for an investment consisting of
payments and income that occur at regular periods
Opportunity Cost: The cost given up by selecting one project over another.
Payback Period: The time it takes to recover your investment in the project before
you start accumulating profit.
Figure 7-2. Various components of the project budget and cost base line
Earned Value Management (EVM):
The concept of Earned Value Management came into the limelight in the sixties when the
US Air Force made it mandatory to use EVM in their programs. And since 2005, it has
become a part of general federal project risk management.
Earned Value Management is an enhancement over traditional project management. The
traditional method focuses on planned vs. actual expenditure, while the EVM method also
makes you aware of actual accomplishment, which gives project managers a clearer
picture of the project’s insight.
In Earned Value Management you can analyze the project schedule performance, cost
performance and other milestones. Afterwards you can find variances by comparing work
performed and work planned.
Nowadays, Earned Value Management is a mandatory requirement for US government
contracts.
The concept of Earned Value Management has also been adopted by the PMI, and in the
PMBOK Guide, PMI discusses this topic great detail.
As per the PMBOK Guide,
“Earned Value Management (EVM) in its various forms is a commonly used method of
performance measurements. It integrates project scope, cost, and schedule measures to
help the project management team assess and measure the project performance and
progress.”
Earned Value Management (EVM) has three primary elements:
1. Planned Value (PV): Scheduled cost of work planned in a given time. This term
is also known as Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled (BCWS).
2. Earned Value (EV): The Amount of money earned from completed work in a
given time. This term is also known as Budgeted Cost of Work Performed
(BCWP).
3. Actual Cost (AC): Actual amount of money spent to date. This term is also
known as Actual Cost of Work Performed (ACWP).
With these EVM primary data sources you can develop many other derived data
elements, such as:
1. Budget at Completion (BAC): Total budget for the project.
2. Schedule Variance (SV): The difference between Earned Value (EV) and
Planned Value (PV).
3. Cost Variance (CV): The difference between Earned Value (EV) and Actual Cost
(AC).
4. Schedule Performance Index (SPI): The ratio between Earned Value (EV) and
Planned Value (PV).
5. Cost Performance Index (CPI): The ratio between Earned Value (EV) and Actual
Cost (AC).
6. Estimate at Completion (EAC): Expected total budget for the project.
7. Estimate to Complete (ETC): From a given point, how much it will cost to
complete the project.
8. Variance at Completion (VAC): How much expected under or over budget.
9. To Complete Performance Index (TCPI): The estimate of the cost performance
required by the project to meet the project’s budget goal.
Now the project managers were in a very comfortable position in analyzing the project
performance and forecasting the future performance.
(If you’re not aware of these terms, don’t worry, I am going to explain them my next posts.)
There are immense benefits of EVM for the project manager and the sponsors.
EVM gives project managers better control over the project constraints such as scope,
cost and schedule. They can identify the problems in the early stages of the project and
manage them proactively.
And for the client, they will have a better view on the project and they will be confident
about the success of the project.
The following are a few benefits of Earned Value Management (EVM):
Improves the planning process.
Relates time-phased budget to the project tasks.
Shows you the project’s status and progress objectively.
Helps you in measuring the project’s cost and schedule performance objectively.
Improves communication and project visibility.
Prevents scope creep.
Helps you in forecasting.
Informs you if you’re deviating from any performance measurement baseline
(scope, cost and schedule baseline).
Helps you identify the potential risk areas.
Helps in forecasting (most likely future performance).
Earned Value Management is one of the few techniques in the PMBOK Guide that
involves mathematical calculations. Therefore, many people find it difficult and ignore it.
However, if you understand the concept of EVM, these calculations are not really as
difficult as they appear to be.
Before I conclude this blog post, let’s revise some key points.
Earned Value Management (EVM) analysis is a technique in Project Cost Management
that determines the current status of the project, and tracks the progress.
It shows you the current status of the project, such as:
How much work has been completed and how much is remaining?
How much budget has been spent and how much is left?
Tracks actual progress vs planned progress, such as:
Work completed vs planned work for a given time.
Work completed vs planned work for a given cost.
It answers various performance related queries such as:
Is the project over budget or under budget?
Is the project behind schedule or ahead of schedule?
How much work (scope) is completed.
Planned Value (PV)
As per the PMBOK Guide “Planned Value (PV) is the authorized budget assigned to work
to be accomplished for an activity or WBS component.
Total planned value for the project is also known as Budget at Completion (BAC).
The Planned Value is the approved value of the work to be completed in a given time
period; in other words, it is the money that you should have spent as per the schedule.
Planned Value is also referred to as the Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled (BCWS).
Formula to calculate the Planned Value (PV)0
Planned Value = (Planned % Complete) X (BAC)
You have a project to be completed in 12 months and the total cost of the project is
$100,000 USD. Six months have passed and the schedule says that 50% of the work
should be completed.
What is the Planned Value (PV)?
Let us see what we have been given in this question.
Project duration: 12 months
Project Cost (BAC): $100,000 USD
Time elapsed: 6 months
Percent complete: 50% (as per the schedule)
The definition of Planned Value says that the Planned Value is the value of the work
that should have been completed so far (as per the schedule).
Therefore, in this case we should have completed 50% of the total work.
Hence,
Planned Value = 50% of value of the total work
= 50% of BAC
= 50% of $100,000
= (50/100) X $100,000
= $50,000
Therefore, the Planned Value (PV) is $50,000 USD.
Application of Planned Value
Planned Value is used to calculate Schedule Variance (SV), and Schedule Performance
Index (SPI).
Earned Value (EV)
Although, all three elements have their own significance, Earned Value has more respect
among them, as it is the most important element of all.
As per the PMBOK Guide “Earned Value (EV) is the value of work performed expressed
in terms of the approved budget assigned to that work for an activity or WBS Component.”
In other words, the Earned Value is the value of the work actually completed to date, or
you can say that if the project is terminated today, the Earned Value will show you the
value that it has produced.
Earned Value is also known as the Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (BCWP).
Formula to calculate the Earned Value (EV)
Earned Value = % of completed work X BAC
A mathematical example of Earned Value (EV)
You have a project to be completed in 12 months and the total cost of the project is
$100,000 USD. Six months have passed and $60,000 USD has been spent, but on closer
review you find that only 40% of the work is completed so far.
What is the Earned Value (EV)?
In the above question, you can clearly see that only 40% of the work is actually completed,
and the definition of Earned Value says that it is the value of the project that has been
earned.
Hence,
Earned Value = 40% of value of total work
= 40% of BAC
= 40% of $100,000
= 0.4 X $100,000
= $40,000
◾When the project is completed, Schedule Variance becomes zero because at the end
of the project, all the Planned Value has been earned.
A mathematical example of Schedule Variance
You have a project to be completed in 12 months and the total cost of the project is
$100,000 USD. Six months have passed and $60,000 USD has been spent, but on closer
review you find that only 40% of the work is completed so far.
Find the Schedule Variance (SV) for this project, and deduce whether you are ahead of
schedule or behind schedule.
Given in the question:
Actual Cost (AC) = $60,000
Planned Value (PV) = 50% of $100,000
= $50,000
Earned Value (EV) = 40% of $100,000
= $40,000
Now,
Schedule Variance (SV) = Schedule Variance (EV) – Planned Value (PV)
= $40,000 – $50,000
= – $10,000
Hence,
The Schedule Variance is -$10,000 USD, and since the Schedule Variance is negative,
you are behind schedule.
◾If the SPI is greater than one, this means more work has been completed than the
planned work. In other words, you are ahead of schedule.
◾If the SPI is less than one, this means less work is completed than the planned work.
In other words, you are behind schedule.
◾If the SPI is equal to one, this means all work is completed.
While calculating the Schedule Performance Index, make sure that you consider all tasks.
Sometimes you may only consider the tasks on the critical path and ignore the rest, which
causes the wrong result.
Therefore, ensure that non-critical activities are not ignored.
A mathematical example of Schedule Performance Index
You have a project to be completed in 12 months and the total cost of the project is
$100,000 USD. Six months have passed and $60,000 USD has been spent, but on closer
review you find that only 40% of the work is completed so far.
Find the Schedule Performance Index (SPI) and deduce whether the project is ahead or
behind schedule.
Given in question:
Actual Cost (AC) = $60,000
Planned Value (PV) = 50% of $100,000
= $50,000
Earned Value (EV) = 40% of $100,000
= $40,000
Now,
Schedule Performance Index (SPI) = EV / PV
= $40,000 / $50,000
= 0.8
Hence,
Schedule Performance Index is 0.8
Since the Schedule Performance Index is less than one, you are behind the planned
schedule.
Cost Performance Index (CPI)
The Cost Performance Index in an indication of the cost performance of the project.
The Cost Performance Index helps you analyze the efficiency of the cost utilized by the
project. It measures the value of the work completed compared to the actual cost spent
on the project.
In simple words, the Cost Performance Index informs you of how much you are earning
for each dollar spent on the project.
Formula to calculate the Cost Performance Index
Below is the formula to calculate the CPI:
Cost Performance Index = (Earned Value)/ (Actual Cost)
CPI = EV/AC
With the above formula you can conclude that:
◾If the CPI is less than one, you are earning less than the spending. In other words,
you’re over budget.
◾If the CPI is greater than one, you are earning more than the spending. In other words,
you are under budget.
◾If the CPI is equal to one, this means earning and spending are equal. Or you can say
that you are proceeding exactly as per the planned budget spending, although this rarely
happens.
A mathematical example of Cost Performance Index
You have a project to be completed in 12 months and the total cost of the project is
$100,000 USD. Six months have passed and $60,000 USD has been spent, but on closer
review you find that only 40% of the work is completed so far.
Find the Cost Performance Index (CPI) for this project and deduce whether you are under
budget or over budget.
Given in question:
Actual Cost (AC) = $60,000
Planned Value (PV) = 50% of $100,000
= $50,000
Earned Value (EV) = 40% of $100,000
= $40,000
Now,
Cost Performance Index (CPI) = EV / AC
= $40,000 / $60,000
= 0.67
Hence,
Cost Performance Index is 0.67
Since the Cost Performance Index is less than one, this means you are earning $0.67
USD for every $1 USD spending. In other words, you are over budget.
A consistently high or low value of SPI or CPI is an indication that something is wrong
with either you’re planning and/or cost estimates.
Forecasting provides us with the visibility of future progress of the project and
gives project sponsors an early idea of what may go wrong.
In project management, three techniques are most commonly used for forecasting. These
techniques are as follows:
1. Estimate at Completion (EAC)
2. Estimate to Complete (ETC)
3. To Complete Performance Index (TCPI)
For the other two techniques, you can refer my blog posts on ETC and TCPI.
Projects are executed in the real world, and in the real world activities do not always go
as planned. There are many circumstances beyond your control that may deviate your
project from its planned path, which might lead to a change in your project.
As a project manager you must keep track of these changes and evaluate their impact on
the project parameters.
Now, the question is: how will you evaluate the impact of these changes?
You will do this with the help of project forecasting tools, such as the Estimate at
Completion.
The Estimate at Completion gives you the forecasted value of the project when it is
complete. It tells you how much you may have to spend to complete the project.
In other words, you can say that it is the amount of the money that the project will cost
you at the end.
The Estimate at Completion can be determined by four methods depending on the way
the project is performing.
However, from a PMP Certification exam point of view, the first method is more
important than the rest.
Case-I: EAC = BAC/CPI
In this scenario you assume that the project will continue to perform to the end as it was
performing up until now.
Simply put, your future performance will be same as the past performance; i.e. the CPI
will remain the same for the rest of the project.
Formula to Calculate the Estimate at Completion
Estimate at Completion = (Budget at Completion) / (Cost Performance Index)
Or,
EAC = BAC/CPI
Please note that:
◾If the CPI = 1, then EAC = BAC. This means you can complete your project with your
approved budget (BAC), and there is no need to use forecasting analysis.
◾At the start of the project, the Estimate at Completion will be equal to the Budget at
Completion, i.e. EAC = BAC.
In this blog post I am going to explain to you the four most commonly used formulas to
calculate the EAC.
However, for the PMP exam, Case-I is the most important of all, and there is less chance
that you will see questions based on the other cases.
Anyway, I’m going to explain all formulas mentioned in the PMBOK Guide, so no worries
for you.
A mathematical example of Estimate at Completion (Case-I)
You have a project to be completed in 12 months, and the total cost of the project is
$100,000 USD. Six months have passed and $60,000 USD has been spent, but on closer
review you find that only 40% of the work is completed so far.
Find the Estimate at Completion (EAC) for this project.
Given in the question:
Budget at Completion (BAC) = $100,000
Actual Cost (AC) = $60,000
Planned Value (PV) = 50% of $100,000
= $50,000
Earned Value (EV) = 40% of $100,000
= $40,000
To calculate the EAC, first you have to calculate the Cost Performance Index
Cost Performance Index (CPI) = EV / AC
= $40,000 / $60,000
= 0.67
=>Cost Performance Index (CPI) = 0.67
Now,
Estimate at Completion (EAC) = BAC/CPI
= $100,000/0.67
= $149,253.73
Hence, the Estimate at Completion (EAC) is $149,253.73 USD.
It means if the project continues to progress with CPI = 0.67 until the end, you will have
to spend $149,253.73 USD to complete the project.
You have a fixed deadline project with a budgeted cost of $500,000 USD. So far you have
spent $200,000 USD and the value of the completed work is $175,000 USD. However,
as per the schedule you should have earned $225,000 USD to date.
Calculate the Estimate at Completion (EAC).
Given in the question:
Budget at Completion (BAC) = $500,000
Actual Cost (AC) = $200,000
Earned Value (EV) = $175,000
Planned Value (PV) = $225,000
To calculate the EAC, first you have to calculate the CPI and SPI.
SPI = EV/PV
= 175,000/225,000
= 0.78
CPI = EV/AC
= 175,000/200,000
= 0.88
Now, you can use the formula
EAC = AC + (BAC – EV)/ (CPI*SPI)
= 200,000 + (500,000 – 175,000)/ (0.88*0.78)
= 200,000 + 325,000/0.69
= 200,000 + 471,000
= 671,000
Hence, the Estimate at Completion is $671,000 USD.
Case-IV: EAC = AC + Bottom up Estimate to Complete
This is the case when you find out that your cost estimate was flawed, and you need to
calculate the new cost estimate for the remaining work for the project.
Here you will go to the activity level, find the cost of each activity and sum them up to get
the total cost of the remaining work.
A mathematical example of Estimate at Completion (Case-IV)
You have a project to build a government’s department building with a worth of $500,000
USD. To date you have spent $200,000 USD and the value of the completed work is
$175,000 USD. However, during your project execution you noticed that your cost
estimation was flawed and you need to calculate your budget again for the remaining part
of the project.
You sit down with your team members and re-estimate the cost of the remaining work.
Your new estimate says that it will take $400,000 USD to complete the remaining part of
the project.
Calculate the Estimate at Completion (EAC).
Given in the question:
Budget at Completion (BAC) = $500,000
Actual Cost (AC) = $200,000
Earned Value (EV) = $175,000
Bottom Up Estimate to Complete = $400,000
In this case you will use the formula:
EAC = AC + Bottom up Estimate to Complete
= 200,000 + 400,000
= 600,000
Hence, the Estimate at Completion is $600,000 USD.
2. Estimate to Complete (ETC)
Estimate to Complete is the amount of money to complete the remaining work (the work
that is left after a certain period).
Visit: Estimate to Complete
To Complete Performance Index (TCPI)
In simple words, the To Complete Performance Index tells you how fast you have to move
to achieve the target.
It is the estimate of the future cost performance that you may need to complete the project
within the approved budget.
This budget may be your initial approved budget (BAC), or a new approved budget, i.e.
the Estimate at Completion (EAC).
There are many professionals who often confuse ETC with EAC. Estimate at Completion
(EAC) is different from the Estimate to Complete (ETC).
EAC is the expected amount of money to complete the project. It tells you that how much
the project will cost in the end.
In other words, you can say that the EAC is the expected amount of money to be spent
to complete the project.
Note that, when the project starts, EAC is equal to the ETC. As the project progresses,
the ETC starts decreasing and at the end of the project, it becomes zero.
Estimate at Completion is equal to the Actual Cost spent on the project plus the expected
cost to be spent to complete the balance of the work.
i.e.
Estimate at Completion = Actual Cost already spent + cost spent to complete the
balance work
Estimate at Completion (EAC) = Actual Cost already spent (AC) + Estimate to
Complete (ETC)
EAC = AC + ETC
ETC = EAC – AC
This means that you can find the value of ETC by subtracting the value of Actual Cost
(AC) from the value of the Estimate at Completion (EAC).
Example:
You have a project to be completed in 12 months and the total cost of project is $100,000.
Six months have passed and $60,000 is spent but on closer review you find that only 40%
of the work is completed so far.
Find the Estimate to Complete (ETC) for this project.
Given in question:
Budget at Completion = $100,000
Actual Cost (AC) = $60,000
Planned Value (PV) = 50% of $100,000
= $50,000
Earned Value (EV) = 40% of $100,000
= $40,000
Cost Performance Index (CPI) = EV / AC
= $40,000 / $60,000
= 0.67
Hence,
Cost Performance Index (CPI) = 0.67
Now,
Estimate at Completion (EAC) = BAC/CPI
= $100,000/0.67
= $149,253.73
Estimate at Completion (EAC) = $149,253.73
Therefore,
Estimate To Complete (ETC) = EAC – AC
$149,253.73 – $60,000
= $89,253.73
Estimate To Complete = $89,253.73
3. TCPI is the calculated cost performance index that is achieved on the
remaining work to meet the specified management goal, such as the BAC or
the EAC.”
In other words, the To Complete Performance Index (TCPI) is the estimate of the future
cost performance that you may need to complete the project within the approved budget.
This budget may be your initial approved budget (BAC), or a new approved budget; i.e.
Estimate at Completion (EAC).
You can calculate the TCPI by dividing Remaining Work by the Remaining Funds; i.e.
TCPI = (Remaining Work)/ (Remaining Funds)
Remaining work can be calculated by subtracting Earned Value (EV) from the total budget
(BAC); i.e. (BAC–EV).
However, there are two cases to determine the Remaining Funds on hand.
Initially, your emphasis will be on completing the work with the initial budget (BAC).
However, if you see that you cannot complete your remaining work with this budget, you
will calculate how much more money you will require to complete the project. Once you
get this figure, you will ask management to approve the new budget (EAC).
So there are two cases, and the To Complete Performance Index (TCPI) formula will be
different for each case.
Let’s see the TCPI formula in both cases.
Case-I: If you’re under budget:
In this case, remaining funds will be calculated by subtracting “Actual Cost (AC) incurred
to date” from the “initial budget”; i.e. (BAC–AC).
Here, the TCPI formula will be:
TCPI = (BAC–EV)/ (BAC–AC)
Case-II: If you’re over budget:
You will update the cost baseline, and raise the change request and get it approved. In
this case, remaining funds will be calculated by subtracting Actual Cost (AC) incurred to
date from this new approved budget (EAC); i.e. (EAC–AC).
Here, the TCPI will you show the required cost performance to complete the project with
the new approved budget.
TCPI = (BAC–EV)/ (EAC–AC)
Keep in mind that if you have calculated the EAC using Earned Value Management
formula (EAC=BAC/CPI), the TCPI will be equal to the CPI at the moment when you
calculate the TCPI the first time.
This is because while calculating EAC you have already assumed that the future cost
performance of the project will be the same as the past cost performance of the project.
Here is where the technical details of the To Complete Performance Index (TCPI)
completes, now let’s see it in a real world example.
Suppose you have taken a contract to paint 10,000 square feet of area in 10 days. This
means you have to paint 1,000 square feet of area per day to complete the project on
time.
However, when you review your progress after 5 days, you find that only 3,000 square
feet of area is painted.
Now you have 5 days left and 7,000 square feet of area is yet to be painted. You calculate
and deduce that if you want to complete your task within 10 days, you will have to paint
1,400 square feet of area per day.
This will be your future performance to complete the task on time, and this future
performance is known as the To Complete Performance Index (TCPI).
Please note that Cost Performance Index (CPI) is your past performance and TCPI is
your future performance which you must meet to complete the project within the approved
budget.
You may also consider what will happen if you perform better; i.e. you painted 7,000
square feet of area in 5 days.
In this case, you can paint 600 square feet of area per day to complete the task. In other
words, you are comfortable to complete the task.
(The above example may not be a technically perfect example for the TCPI; however, I
believe that it will help you understand the concept easily.)
A mathematical example of TCPI
You have a project to be completed in 12 months and the total cost of the project is
$100,000 USD. Six months have passed and $60,000 USD has been spent, but on closer
examination you find that only 40% of the work is completed so far.
Find the To Complete Performance Index (TCPI) for this project.
Solution:
Given in question:
Budget at Completion (BAC) = $100,000 USD
Actual Cost (AC) = $60,000 USD
Planned Value (PV) = 50% of $100,000
= $50,000 USD
Earned Value (EV) = 40% of $100,000
= $40,000 USD
Cost Performance Index (CPI) = EV / AC
= $40,000 / $60,000
= 0.67
Hence,
Cost Performance Index (CPI) = 0.67
Now,
Estimate at Completion (EAC) = BAC/CPI
= $100,000/0.67
= $149,253.73 USD
Hence,
Estimate at Completion (EAC) = $149,253.73 USD
From the calculation, we can see that since the CPI is less than one, you’re over budget.
Therefore, to calculate the To Complete Performance Index (TCPI), you will use the
formula based on EAC.
TCPI = (BAC–EV)/ (EAC–AC)
= (100,000–40,000)/ (149,253.73–60,000)
=60,000/89,253.73
=0.67
TCPI = 0.67
This means that you can continue with a Cost Performance Index of 0.67 to complete the
project.
Before I conclude this blog post, let’s revise some key points regarding the To Complete
Performance Index (TCPI):
◾Cost Performance Index (CPI) is the past performance of the project; on the other hand
TCPI is the future performance of the project.
◾If you are under budget, you will calculate the TCPI based on the BAC.
◾If you are over budget, you will calculate the TCPI based on the EAC.
◾If the To Complete Performance Index in less than one, you are in a comfortable
position.
◾If the To Complete Performance Index is greater than one, you have to perform with
better cost performance than the past cost performance.
◾And finally, if the To Complete Performance Index is equal to one, you can continue
with the same cost performance.
Here I’m completing this series of seven articles on Earned Value Analysis, Forecasting
and To-Complete Performance Index.
I tried my best to make these concepts and calculations easy for you; however, if you still
have some doubt, you can contact me through the comment section.
Okay, let’s we get started…
Earned Value Management (EVM)
The Earned Value Management (EVM) is a technique which helps the project
management team to assess and measure the project performance and progress.
The Earned Value Management has three basic elements: Earned Value (EV), Planned
Value (PV), and Actual Cost (AC).
Earned Value (EV), Planned Value (PV) and Actual Cost (AC)
These are the three basic elements of Earned Value Management.
Earned Value (EV)
It is the value of work completed till date.
Planned Value (PV)
It is the authorized value of work that has to be completed in a given time period, as per
the schedule.
Actual Cost (AC)
It is the amount of money that you have spent till date.
Schedule Variance (SV) and Cost Variance (SV)
Schedule Variance (SV)
It is the difference between the Earned Value and the Planned Value.
SV = EV – PV
◾If SPI is greater than one; you’ve completed more work than the planned work.
◾If SPI is less than one; you’ve completed less work than the planned work.
Cost Performance Index (CPI)
It is the ratio between the Earned Value and the Actual Cost.
CPI = EV/AC
◾If CPI is less than one; you’re earning less than you’re spending.
◾If CPI is greater than one; you’re earning more than you’re spending.
Estimate at Completion (EAC)
Estimate at Completion is the total amount of money that the project will cost you in the
end.
EAC = BAC/CPI
◾profit to be earned
◾Cost of Maintenance.
◾How many bindings you can perform with the machine vs how many you were
performing with manual binding per day?
◾It also compares the future earnings with today’s dollar value.
2. (Beta
Distribution) 2. (P+4M+O)/6
QUALITY:
Quality is the degree to which the project fulfills requirements.
QUALITY MANAGEMENT:
Quality Management includes creating and following policies and procedures in order to
ensure that a project meets the defined needs it was intended to meet.
QUALITY THEORISTS:
1. Joseph Juran: 80/20 principle, top management involvement. Quality is fitness
for use.
2. W. Edwards Deming: 14 steps of total Quality Management, Plan-Do-Check-Act
cycle.
3. Philip Crosby: Cost of poor quality, prevention over inspection and zero defects.
Quality is “conformance to requirements”
Now let’s say again that you buy another costly (premium model) high grade cell phone.
This cell phone has all advanced features; e.g. touch display, WI-FI, blue-tooth, photo
camera, video camera, voice recognition and face recognition etc.
But what will happen when it doesn’t perform well? I mean,
The affinity diagram is similar to mind mapping techniques in that they are used to
generate idea that can be linked to form organized patterns of thought about a problem.
In project management, the creation of the WBS may be enhanced by using the affinity
diagram to give structure to the decomposition.
Process Decision Program Charts Figure 8-11.
PDPC are used to understand a goal in relation to the steps for getting to the goal. The
PDPC is useful as a method for contingency planning because it aids teams in
anticipating intermediate steps that could derail achievement of the goal.
2. Quality audits
3. Process analysis
Outputs:
1. Change request
2. Project management plan updates
3. Project documents updates
4. Organizational process assets updates
8-3 Quality Control:
Inputs:
1. Project management plan
2. Quality metrics
3. Quality checklists
4. Work performance data
5. Approved change requests
6. Deliverables
7. Project documents
8. Organizational process assets
Tools and Techniques:
1. Seven basic quality tools
2. Statistical sampling
3. Inspection
4. Approved change requests review
Outputs:
1. Quality control measurements
2. Validated changes
3. Verified deliverables
4. Work performance information
5. Change requests
6. Project management plan updates
7. Project documents updates
8. Organizational process assets updates
QUALITY ASSURANCE AND QUALITY CONTROL:
In Quality Assurance, processes are planned to avoid the defects and assure
quality.
Quality Control deals with finding the defects and correcting them while making the
product.
Quality Assurance is a Proactive approach.
Quality Control is a reactive approach.
Quality Assurance is a process based approach.
Quality Control is a product based approach.
For example, if the project team finds any defects while executing the project, it will correct
the error by work around, and this feedback is sent to Quality Assurance for further
investigation to take corrective actions in the process so that this error should never
happen again in future. In the same way the Quality Control people will follow the process
defined by Quality Assurance so that these defects do not recur.
Now let’s say 100 km of road has been built and is ready to be handed over. The Company
will invite the government authorities to come and inspect the completed part to formally
accept it. The government representatives will come and verify whether all the
requirements have been met or not; e.g. whether the width of road is correct, is the level
okay, is the footpath aligned properly, and whether the length of the road is 100 km or
not. Once these representatives are satisfied, they sign the acceptance paper, the road
is handed over to the government, and the company gets the money for the work it has
completed. This process is called the Verify Scope.
One more point to be noted here is that it is not necessary that Verify Scope process
should always be performed at the end of the project; it can happen far before the project
ends and can happen concurrently with the Quality Control Process.
As we can see from the example here, the government is verifying the scope for first 100
km of road while the company is working to build the rest of the road
ACCURACY: Accuracy is how close a measured value is to the actual (true) value.
PRECISION: Precision is how close the measured values are to each other.
So, if you are playing soccer and you always hit the left goal post instead of
scoring, then you are not accurate, but you are precise!
Main Points about Quality:
One purpose of a quality audit is to identify inefficient and ineffective policies.
The quality management plan may be formal or informal, highly detailed or broadly
framed. The style and detail is determined by the requirements of the project as
defined by the project management team.
Prevention is about keeping errors out of the process whereas inspection is about
keeping errors out of the hands of the customer
Sample frequency and sizes are determined during the Plan Quality Management
process so that the cost of quality includes the number of tests, expected scrap
etc.
The activities such as measuring examining and verifying to determine whether
work and deliverables met requirements and product acceptance criteria are
variously referred to as inspections, audits, reviews, product reviews, and
walkthroughs.
Making sure that the project team comply with organizational quality policies and
procedures is done in the Perform Quality Assurance process. Quality audits are
one of such techniques in which a structured review is performed by independent
consultants or contractors to identify all shortcomings in carrying out quality
policies and procedures. These efforts should be used later to improve the product
quality and reduce the cost of quality.
Accuracy and Precision are not the same. Precision means the values of repeated
measurements are clustered and Accuracy means the measured value is close to
the actual value.
The words, “satisfies the needs” are your clue that the answers relates to quality.
Determining what processes should be used describes Plan Quality Management.
Evaluating quality describes Control Quality. In the Perform Quality Assurance
process, quality audits are performed to make sure the correct processes are being
used and that are effective.
Design of experiment attempts to combine variables to determine which
combination of variables produces the best quality and it identifies which variables
will have the most influence on a quality outcome. The design of experiments is a
quality planning tool to identify the factors that may influence specific variables of
a product under development. This tool is used to determine the number of quality
tests in a project.
In a just in time environment, supplies are delivered when you need them and not
before. Therefore, you have little or no inventory.
Trend analysis examines project results over time to evaluate performance.
Ishikawa is another name for the cause and effect diagram. The effect being
studied is normally states at the head of the diagram. The cause and effect diagram
is one tool that can be used for problem solving.
Prioritization matrices provide a way of ranking a set of problems and/or issues
that are usually generated through brainstorming. The rest of the choices are not
valid techniques for the development of a priority matrix.
Two events that are mutually exclusive cannot happen on the same trail.
Two events occurring in the same trial are true events.
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CHECK LIST AND CHECK SHEET: The quality
checklist is intended to help verify a required action has taken place or item has
been included. Although a check sheet is a type of check list, its primary purpose
is to gather data.
A Pareto diagram is a style of histogram used as a tool within the Control Quality
process. They display how many defects were produced by type or category of
cause and ordered by their frequency. A Pareto chart identifies the vital few
sources that are responsible for causing most of a problem's effects.
Histograms are bar charts and are also used to show the frequency distributions
of different variables
Control charts graphically display the interaction of process variables on a process.
Control charts have three lines: a center line which gives the average of the
process, an upper line designating the upper control limit (UCL) and showing the
upper range of acceptable values, and a lower line designating the lower control
limit (LCL) and showing the lower range of acceptable values. Points that fall
outside of the UCL or LCL are evidence that the process is out of control. The
process is out of control if seven consecutive points are either above or below the
mean, or any single point is outside of the control limits. Seven non-random data
points that are still within upper or lower control limit of a control chart are out of
control. The control limits of a control chart are set at plus/minus 3 sigma. Hence
the range is 6 sigma.
Scatter diagrams are used to determine if a correlation exists between two
variables. A scatter diagram shows the pattern of relationship between two
variables. The closer the points are to a diagonal line, the more closely they are
related.
Process decision program charts (PDPC) are used to understand a project goal in
relation to the steps for getting to that goal. It is a useful method for contingency
planning that aids a team in anticipating intermediate steps that could derail
achievement of a project goal.
Prioritization matrices provide a way of ranking a set of problems and/or issues
that are usually generated through brainstorming
The process analysis includes root cause analysis.
Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA): Each potential failure mode in every
component of a product is analyzed to determine its effect on the reliability of that
component and, by itself or in combination with other possible failure modes, on
the reliability of the product or system. For each potential failure, an estimate is
made of its effect on the total system and of its impact. In addition, a review is
undertaken of the action planned to minimize the probability of failure and to
minimize its effects.
Design for Six Sigma (DFSS) is a business-process management "methodology"
related to traditional Six Sigma
There are different options for the implementation of DFSS. Unlike Six Sigma,
which is commonly driven via DMAIC (Define - Measure - Analyze - Improve -
Control) projects, DFSS has spawned a number of stepwise processes, all in the
style of the DMAIC procedure.
{TQM and PDCA are process improvement methodologies but do not six sigma.
DMAIC is used for projects aimed at improving and existing business process,
while DMADV (Define, Measure, analyze, design and verify) is used for project
aimed at creating new product or process designs}.
PDCA (plan–do–check–act or plan–do–check–adjust) is an iterative four-step
management method used in business for the control and continuous improvement
of processes and products. It is also known as the Deming circle/cycle/wheel,
Shewhart cycle, control circle/cycle, or plan–do–study–act (PDSA). Another
version of this PDCA cycle is OPDCA. The added "O" stands for observation or as
some versions say "Grasp the current condition. The "act" component of the plan-
do-check-act cycle relates to the Monitoring and Controlling process group. The
plan-do-check-act cycle was created by Shewhart and modified by Deming to
illustrate how different results from one cycle become an input to another cycle.
Six sigma process is one in which 99.99966%
3 sigma (68–95–99.7) rule
Earned value analysis is used as a trend analysis technique for monitoring overall
project performance
CHAPTER 9: PROJECT HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
Figure 9-1. Project Human Resource Management Overview
Multi criteria decision analysis: Selection criteria for acquiring the project team.
Some examples of selection criteria that can be used to score team members are
shown as follows:
Availability
Cost
Experience
Ability
Knowledge
Skills
Attitude
International factors
Colocation: Colocation, also referred to as “tight matrix”, involves placing many or all
of the most active project team members in the same physical location to enhance their
ability to perform as a team.
Halo effect: The halo effect is a type of cognitive bias in which our overall impression
of a person influences how we feel and think about his or her character. Essentially, your
overall impression of a person ("He is nice!") impacts your evaluations of that person's
specific traits ("He is also smart!").
One great example of the halo effect in action is our overall impression of celebrities.
Since we perceive them as attractive, successful, and often likeable, we also tend to see
them as intelligent, kind, and funny.
Explaining
Team Building Activities: Team building activities can play a major role in team
development. Team building activities can include:
Taking classes together
Milestone parties
Holiday and birthday celebrations
Outside-of-work trips
Creating the WBS
Getting everyone involved in some way in planning the project
Types of team:
Dedicated or Full time
Part time
Partnership
Virtual
Sources of Conflict: Figure 9-2.
Motivational Theory:
1. McGregor’s Theory: X and Y
Theory X: Workers need to be watched, hate work and responsibility. Managers must
use coercion, threats & various control schemes to get workers to meet objectives.
Theory Y: Workers can work without supervision, they want to achieve, and can make
their own decisions. Workers enjoy the satisfaction of esteem and self- actualization
needs.
Motivating Agents:
1. Responsibility
2. Self-actualization
3. Professional growth
4. Recognition
5. Expectancy Theory:
The expectation of a positive outcome drives motivation. People will behave in
certain ways if they think there will be good rewards for doing so. This theory also
says that people become what you expect of them.
6. Achievement Theory:
Achievement Theory says that people are motivated by the need for three things:
achievement, power, and affiliation.
The achievement motivation is obviously the need to achieve or succeed.
The power motivation involves a desire for influencing the behavior of
others.
The need for affiliation is relationship oriented. Workers want to have
friendships with their coworkers and a sense of camaraderie with their fellow
team members. The strength of your team members’ desire for each of
these will drive their performance on various activities.
The basic communication model comprises three main parts: the sender, the message,
and the receiver. Each message is encoded by the sender and decoded by the receiver.
Factors like the receiver’s environment, experience, language and culture affect the way
the receiver decodes a message. Communication models often call these types of factors
“noise”, because they may interfere with the receiver’s ability to understand the message.
Communication Methods:
1. Interactive (meetings, phone calls, video conferences, etc.)
2. Push Communications (letters, memos, reports, emails, faxes, etc.)
3. Pull communications (Intranet, knowledge repositories, etc.)
Figure 10-3. Communication Channels calculation formula
Types of Communication:
1. Non- verbal Communication: 55% of conveying the message, composed of
behavior & Physical Mannerisms.
2. Verbal Communication
a) Formal (Presentations- Speeches)
b) Informal (Meetings Conversations)
c) Para-lingual: Pitch & Tone of Voice
d) Active Listening
e) Effective Listening: Watching physical gestures of the speaker
3. Written
a) Formal (In project plan, charter, long distances & complex problems)
b) Informal (Memos, emails, notes)
Communication skills allow information to flow:
1. Internally
2. Externally
3. Vertically (up and down hierarchies)
4. Horizontally (along peers)
Communication Barriers:
Communication Barriers (1)
1. Noise
2. Distance
3. Hostility
4. Language
5. Culture
6. Evaluative tendency
7. Improper Decoding
RISK REGISTER
Risk Triggers:
Risk Triggers are indications that a risk has occurred or is about to occur. Triggers are
sometimes called warning signs or risks symptoms.
Risk Owner:
The responsibility of a Risk Owner is to ensure that risk response is effective, and to plan
additional risk responses if required.
Known Risks:
Known Risks are risks those have been identified and analyzed, making it possible to
plan responses for them. For example, you know that one of your employee will go for
leave during your project execution; therefore, you already plan to replace him with
someone.
Unknown Risks:
Unknown Risks are those risks that cannot be managed proactively, which suggests that
the project team should create a contingency plan. For example, you don’t know if any of
your employees may go for leave, but you made a contingency plan in case if anyone
leaves.
Risk Appetite:
If you look in the dictionary, you will find that the meaning of “appetite” is “hunger”.
So risk appetite means “risk hungry”.
As per the 5th edition of the PMBOK Guide, risk appetite is the degree of uncertainty an
entity is willing to take on in anticipation of a reward.
The risk appetite of an organization shows how much an organization is willing to take a
risk in order to grow itself. It is the amount of risk that an organization is willing to accept
to attain its business objective.
Some organizations might be willing to take a high risk if the reward is high; others may
want to play safe or go conservatively.
If the organization is willing to take a risk, you will say that its risk appetite is high, and the
organization that plays conservatively has a low risk appetite.
Risks Tolerance:
Risk Tolerance tells you that how sensitive the organization or people are to the risk. High
tolerance mean people are willing to take a high risk, and less tolerance mean people are
not willing to take a high risk.
Risk Threshold:
Risk Threshold is an amount of risk that an organisation or individual is willing to accept.
For example, for an organisation a 5% cost overrun is acceptable, but anything more than
that is not acceptable.
Residual Risks:
Residual Risks are those risks that are expected to remain after planned responses of
risks have been taken, as well as those that have been deliberately accepted.
For example, let’s say you are constructing a building in an earthquake prone zone. You
constructed the building by assuming that the highest degree of earth quake that can
happen is 6 on Richter Magnitude Scale. But what if an earth quake happens at 7 on the
Richter Magnitude Scale? The Building might collapse.
Secondary Risks:
Secondary Risks are those risks that arise as a direct outcome of implementing a risk
response.
For example, let’s say that you are constructing a building, and as a security measure
you installed electrical wire at the top of the boundary wall. But what will happen if
someone accidentally touches the electrical wire, or during rain the electricity passes
through the wet wall?
3. Expert judgement
Tools and Techniques for Risk Responses:
1. Strategies for negative risks or threats
a) Avoid
b) Transfer
c) Mitigate
d) Accept
2. Strategies for positive risk or opportunities
a) Exploit
b) Enhance
c) Share
d) Accept
3. Contingent response strategies
4. Expert judgement
Today, I’m going to dive into two positive types of risk response strategies; i.e. exploit and
Enhance Risk Response Strategies.
These risk response strategies look similar to many people, but there is a difference in
the way they are implemented. The Enhance risk response technique tackles the situation
leniently, while on the other hand, Exploit tackles it very aggressively.
Enhancing is about increasing the probability of the occurrence of the event. Here, though
measures will be taken to increase the chance of the event happening, but there is no
surety to realize it.
In the Enhance Response Strategy, the opportunity may or may not be realized.
Exploiting is about doing everything to make the event happen; i.e. to make sure that the
opportunity is realized. The Exploit Risk Response strategy takes the opportunity very
seriously and develops an approach to increase the chance of happening to 100% in
order to realize it.
For example, you’re constructing a school building, and suddenly the client comes to you
and tells you that if you complete the school building before two months from the actual
date, he will give you an extra amount of money.
You have an opportunity and now I’m going to describe that how you should approach it
under both risk response strategies:
Here, you will try to finish the project by increasing overtime, fast-tracking (fast-tracking—
multiple activities are performed parallel or simultaneously to reduce the time to finish the
project), or you try to get some resources from other projects, etc.
As you can see that in the Enhancing Risk Response Strategy, you’re only trying to finish
the project early to gain the opportunity; i.e. you are only increasing the probability
(chance) of finishing the project early; there is no guarantee that you will realize the
opportunity.
Exploit Risk Response Strategy:
In Exploiting, you will finish the project by increasing manpower, overtime, fast-tracking,
crashing (crashing — additional resources are assigned to activities to finish it earlier than
planned. Crashing increases the cost), motivate team members by announcing rewards
if they finish the project early, etc.
Obviously, you can see that in the Exploiting Risk Response Strategy, you will do
whatever it takes to make sure that the opportunity is realized. You do not try to get this
opportunity; you work and ensure you get it.
Key Points
Enhance Exploit
Try to realize the opportunity Ensure to realize the opportunity
Try to increase the probability Try to increase the probability to 100%
It can be assumed as the opposite of It can be assumed as the opposite of Avoid
mitigation
Attention:
The risk identification checklist is a useful tool, it should be used in combination
with the other tools, since it is impossible to cover all scenarios on one checklist.
They are not exhaustive (comprehensive).
You would use a Decision Tree when uncertainty and unknowns exist regarding
future scenarios and their outcomes; not when future scenarios are known. The
decision points are known as Decision nodes. The decision tree incorporates the
cost of each available choice, the possibilities of each of the available choices and
possible scenarios. It shows how to make a decision between alternative capital
strategies (decision node) when the environment is not known with certainty.
A Cost reimbursable contract does not transfer risk to the seller, rather, the risk is
with the buyer. Risk Transference involves shifting the negative impact of a risk,
along with the ownership of the response, to a third party. Risk transference nearly
always involves payment of a premium to the party taking on the risk. Examples
are use of performance bonds, warranties, and fixed price contracts.
The Risk Register contains the results of the Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis,
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis, and Plan Risk Responses. It details all
identified risks, including description, category, and cause, probability of occurring,
and impact on objectives, proposed responses, owners, and current status.
A tornado diagram is useful for comparing the relative importance of variables that
have a high degree of uncertainty to those that are more stable.
You are analyzing the risk in a project. A probability and impact matrix contains
risk prioritized according to their potential implications for meeting the project’s
objectives. The typical approach is: To use look up table or probability and impact
matrix with specific combinations of probability and impact that lead to a risk being
rated as “high”, moderate or low importance. The importance for planning
responses to the risks are usually set by the organization.
A tornado diagram is a sensitivity analysis tool. This technique is used during the
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis process.
Recognizing the risk and not changing the plan, but making some contingencies
in the event the risk is triggered is an example of active acceptance. Passive
acceptance would be if no contingencies were put in place and avoidance would
be correct if the project plan were modified. Avoidance involves changing the
project management plan to eliminate the threat posed by an adverse risk, isolating
the project objectives from the risk's impacts or to relax the objective that is in
jeopardy, such as extending the schedule or reducing scope. Transference
involves shifting the negative impact of a threat along with the ownership of the
response. Mitigation implies a reduction in the probability and/or impact of an
adverse risk. Postponement is not a valid strategy since it does not address the
risk.
The response 'Sigma distribution' is not a valid distribution. Continuous probability
distributions represent the uncertainty in values, such as durations of schedule
activities and costs of project components. Triangular, Beta, Logarithmic, Normal
and Uniform distributions are other examples of commonly used distributions.
Qualitative analysis examines risks from the risk register and analyzes its
probability of occurrence and the impact it would have on the project deliverables
if it did occur. It ranks risks for future action or analysis by evaluating their
probability of occurrence and impact.
Expected monetary value (EMV) analysis is a statistical concept that calculates
the average outcome when the future includes scenarios that may or may not
happen. The EMV of opportunities will generally be positive values, while risks will
result in negative values.
A Diagramming technique that is a graphical representation of situations showing
causal influences, time-ordering of events and other relationships among variables
and outcomes is known as an Influence Diagram. The Cause-and-effect diagram
also identifies the causes of risk, but does not have the time-ordering of events.
Failure Mode and Effect Analysis is an analytical procedure in which each potential
failure mode in every component of a product is analyzed to determine its effect
on the reliability of that component and the reliability of the product or system as a
whole.
A risk re-assessment is a technique that involves re-evaluating project risks and
identifying new risks that arise as the project moves forward. These risks are
evaluated and placed in the risk register.
Series of interviews with various stakeholders to gather some experiential and
historical information on risks. This is an example of obtaining Expert Judgment
during the Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis process. The Perform Quantitative
Risk analysis process numerically analyzes the prioritized project risks obtained
through the Perform Qualitative Risks Analysis process.
A Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) lists identified project risks hierarchically by
risk category and subcategory that identifies the various areas and causes of
potential risks. The lowest level in the RBS can be used as a basic risk checklist
to cover all identified risks. The other statements are all true. The lowest level of
the risk breakdown structure. The lowest level of the RBS can be used as a risk
checklist. These statements are true about risk checklist:
It is impossible to build an exhaustive checklist
Quick and simple risk checklist are the least effective ones
Risk checklists should be reviewed during project closure
The impact scale will contain the probabilities of certain risks occurring, and will
contain values from 0 to 1. A value of 0 indicates non-occurrence of the risk while
1 is a certainty.
The Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) is a hierarchically organized depiction of
identified project risks arranged by risk category and subcategory. This may be
based on a previously prepared categorization framework The RBS serves to
remind participants in the risk identification exercise of the different sources from
which risk may project arise.
A project manager has decided to use data decision tree to do a build or upgrade
analysis. The build requires an investment of $200M (where M represents million).
On the build decision branch, there is a 60% probability of strong demand (yielding
a revenue of $400M) and a 40% probability of weak demand (yielding a revenue
of $150M). What is the expected monetary value (EMV) of the build? The payoff
for the strong demand scenario is: $ 400 M - $ 200 M = $ 200 M (since the initial
investment is $ 200 M). The payoff for the weak demand scenario is: $ 150 M - $
200 M = - $ 50 M. Hence the EMV is computed as: (0.6 × 200) + (0.4 × -50) where
0.6 represents the 60% probability of the strong demand and 0.4 represents the
40% probability of the weak demand scenario. = 120 - 20 = $ 100 M. Hence the
expected monetary value is $ 100 M.
If a project has a 60% chance of a US$100,000 profit and a 40% chance of a
US$100,000 loss, the expected monetary value of the project is:
EMV=Probability × Impact .6 × $100,000=$60,000 … .4 × ($100,000) =
($40,000) … $60,000-$40,000=$20,000 profit.
Decision tree analysis is used to calculate the average outcome when the future
includes scenarios that may or may not happen. In a decision node, the input is
the cost of each decision while the output is a decision made.
Out puts of the Plan Risk Responses processes include: Residual Risks, fallback
plans, and contingency reserves.
A watch list is an output of which risk management process: Perform qualitative
risk analysis
Plan Risk Responses process most affects the project management plan.
Residual risks, fallback plans, and contingency reserves are the outputs of the Plan
Risk Responses process.
A risk may have one or more causes and, if it occurs, may have one or more
impacts
What are a decision node’s inputs and outputs? Input: cost of decision Output:
decision made
Workaround are determined during which risk management process? Control
risks.
CHAPTER 12: PROJECT PROCUREMENT MANAGEMENT
Figure 12-1. Project Procurement Management Overview
PROJECT PROCUREMENT MANAGEMENT:
Includes the processes required to acquire goods or services from outside
the project team.
It also includes Contract Management and Change Control Processes
Includes controlling an contract issues by an outside organization
A Fixed Price Contract is also known as a lump-sum contract. This type of contract is
used when there is no uncertainty in the scope of work. Once the contract is signed, the
seller is legally bound to complete the task within the agreed amount of money or time.
Since the seller has to complete the task within a fixed amount, he bears the risks.
The main advantage of Fixed Price Contract is that both parties know the scope of the
work, and the total cost of the task before the work is started.
Generally, outsourcing and turnkey procurement contracts are signed under a fixed price
contract on a deliverables basis.
This type of contract is very useful if the scope of work is defined accurately. Fixed price
contracts are good for controlling the cost. However, changes in scope must be carefully
observed, otherwise the cost of the project may be elevated significantly because it is
seen that the contractors get the contract by bidding the lower price and then try to cover
the cost with any opportunity, such as added scope.
This is the simplest type of procurement contract. In this type of contract, the fee is fixed.
The seller has to complete the job within an agreed amount of money and time. Any cost
increase due to bad performance of the seller will be the responsibility of the seller, who
is legally bound to complete the job within the agreed amount.
A Firm Fixed Price Contract is mostly used in government or semi-government contracts
where the scope of work is specified with every possible detail.
This type of contract is easy to float on the market, receive bids, and evaluate the bids
primarily on a cost basis.
Since the risk is borne by the seller, the cost tends to be higher. Another drawback of a
Firm Fixed Price Contract is that, if the scope is not clear, there can be disputes between
the buyer and the seller. Moreover, any deviation from the original scope can cost you a
lot.
Example: The seller has to complete the job for $100,000 USD within 18 months.
If the contract is multi-year long, a Fixed Price with Economic Price Adjustment Contract
is used. Here you include a special provision in a clause which protects the seller from
inflation.
Example: About 3% of the cost of the project will be increased after a certain time duration
based on the Consumer Price Index.
This type of contract is used to buy commodities.
Example: Buy 10,000 bolts at the cost of $1.00 USD.
D. Purchase Order
Purchase order is the simplest type of fixed price contract. It is normally unilateral (signed
by one party).
A Cost Reimbursable Contract provides you with better cost control when you don’t have
a well-defined scope.
A. Cost Contract
A cost contract is one in which the seller receives no fee (profit). It is appropriate for work
performed by non-profit organization. For example, cost for work and material, there is no
profit.
B. Cost Plus Fixed Fee Contract (CPFF)
In this type of contract, the seller is paid for all his cost incurred plus a fixed fee (which
will not change), regardless of his performance. Here, the buyer bears the risk.
This type of contract is used in projects where risk is high, and no one is interested in
bidding. Therefore, this type of contract is selected to keep the seller safe from risks.
Example: Total cost plus $25,000 USD as a fee.
C. Cost Plus Incentive Fee Contract (CPIF)
In a Cost plus Incentive Fee Contract, the seller will be reimbursed for all costs plus an
incentive fee based upon achieving certain performance objectives mentioned in the
contract. This incentive will be calculated by using an agreed predetermined formula.
Here the risk also lies with the buyer; however, this risk is lower than the Cost plus Fixed
Fee where the buyer has to pay a fixed fee along with the cost incurred.
In a Cost plus Incentive Fee Contract, the incentive is a motivating factor for the seller. If
the seller is able to complete the work with less cost or able to complete it before time, he
may get some incentive.
Most of the time incentive is a percentage of the savings, which is shared by the buyer
and the seller.
Example: If the project is completed with lesser cost, 25% of remaining fund will be given
to the seller.
D. Cost Plus Award Fee (CPAF)
Here, the seller is paid for all his legitimate costs plus some award fee. This award fee
will be based on achieving satisfaction on the certain performance objectives described
in the contract.
The evaluation of performance is a subjective matter, and you cannot appeal it.
There is a difference between the incentive fee and the award fee. An incentive fee is
calculated based on a formula defined in the contract, and is an objective evaluation. An
award fee is dependent on the satisfaction of the client and is evaluated subjectively.
Award fee is not subjected to an appeal.
Example: If the seller completes the task meeting or exceeding all quality standards,
based on his performance he may be given an award of up to $10,000 USD.
HIGH LOW
BUYER’S RISK
SELLER’S RISK
HIGH
LOW
3. Time and Materials Contract:
This is a hybrid contract of Fixed Price and Cost Reimbursable Contracts. Here the risk
is distributed to both parties.
A Time and Materials type of contract is generally used when the deliverable is “labor
hours.” In this type of contract, the project manager or the organization will provide the
qualification or experience to the contractor to provide the staff.
This type of contract is used to hire some experts or any outside support.
Here the buyer can specify the hourly rate for the labor with a “not-to-exceed” limit.
Example: Technician will be paid $20 USD per hour.
Summary:
Selecting the contract type is a very important decision for a project manager. It
determines your relationship with the seller and mitigates the risks.
You should always select a contract which provides the optimum value for your time and
money, and protects your project from any risks.
If the scope of work is definite and fixed, you should go for the Fixed Price Contract.
However, if the project scope is not fixed and is exploratory, you should choose the Cost
Reimbursable Contract.
Close Procurement:
“Close Procurement is the process of completing each project procurement. It supports
the Close Project or Phase Process.” If you notice this definition, you will see that the
definition itself is trying to clarify that the Close procurement is different than the Close
Project, and in fact Close Procurements supports the Close Project.
Close Procurement is also known as Contract Closure. A procurement is said to be closed
when the contract reaches its deadline and it ends. A project can have multiple
procurement contracts, or a single contract. If the project has multiple contracts, then the
Close Procurement Process will be performed multiple times with each procurement
contract, and if the project has no contract then there will be no Close Procurement
Process.
Close Project:
“Close Project or Phase is the process of finalizing all activities across all of the project
management process groups to formally complete the project or phase.” Close Project or
Phase Process is performed when the project or phase is finally completed and
deliverables are accepted. To complete the close project or phase, the close procurement
process must have been finished, otherwise the project closure cannot happen; however,
this is not the case for Close Procurement where Project Closure is not required in order
to complete the Close Procurement.
Time to see how this applies to our trademark school building example
You have identified that to construct the school building, some works are going to be
performed by procurement, and you prepare the list as follows:
Earth excavation work
Electrical work
Carpentry work, and
Painting
Before starting the construction work you need a little excavation work completed, and
you contract it to any contractor. He comes and finishes the work, and you give him the
agreed amount of money and closed this procurement contract. Afterwards, you start your
work and build the structure.
Now you need to do electrical work that is also to be performed by procurement. The
contractor comes, does his part, and you released him by paying the agreed amount of
money, and the contract is closed.
After, you need carpentry and painting works, and these works were already procured;
therefore, contractors come and after finishing their job, they take their payment and left
the site. This contract are also closed.
The building is ready, so you call the client to come inspect it. The client comes and
verifies the scope with you, and once he is satisfied, he accepts the building, signs the
acceptance letter and all pending payments are released. Once you get the payment, you
update the lessons learned, release the team and resources, and finally you close the
Project.
Key Points:
Close Procurement must happen before Close Project or Phase.
Close Procurement can occur many times in life-cycle of the project, but the Project
Closure will be performed once; i.e. at the end.
Deliverables are accepted in Close Project.
Every project must be gone through the Close Project process, even it is
terminated.
Attention:
Agreement: A document or communication that outlines internal and external
relationship, and their intentions.
Contract: A type of written or verbal agreement, typically created with an external
entity, when there is some exchange of goods or services for some type of
compensation. The contract forms legal relationship between the entities.
Centralized contracting: One procurement department and the procurement
manager handles procurement for many projects.
Decentralized contracting: A procurement manager is assigned to one project
full time and report directly to the project manager.
Contract administrator and project manager:
The contract administrator is the only one with the power to change the contract.
Requirements for legal contract:
a) Offer
b) Acceptance
c) Consideration
d) Legal capacity
e) Legal purpose
What is included in the contract?
a) Legal term
b) Business term regarding payments
c) Reporting requirements
d) Marketing literature
e) Proposal
f) Procurement statement of work
Procurement document:
a) RFP (Request for proposal)
b) IFB (Invitation for bid)
c) RFQ (Request for quotation)
d) RFI (Request for information), some considered a procurement document,
though it does not really belonging to procurement document.
Ceiling price: The higher price the buyer will pay.
Point of total assumption: For fixed price incentive fee contract, the amount
above which the seller bears all the loss of a cost overrun.
Letter of intent: A letter from the buyer, without legal binding, say the buyer intend
to hire the seller.
Privity: A contracted relationship between two or more companies.
Source selection criteria: Factor, the buyer will use to evaluate (weight or score)
response from the seller.
A contract change control system should include Paperwork, tracking system,
dispute resolution procedures, and approval levels necessary for authorizing
changes.
As part of the close procurements process, the project manager prepared a
complete set of indexed contract documentation including the closed contract, to
include with the final project files. This is called a: Procurement file.
Performance requirements describes the performance required by the customer,
not the functionally. They do not precisely describe everything that needs to be
done.
A project is contracted as a cost plus incentive fee (CPIF) type of contract. The
project was negotiated such that if the final costs are less than the expected costs,
the sharing formula for cost savings is 75:25. The targeted cost is US$100,000
with an 8% incentive fee on the targeted cost. If the project comes in at US$80,000,
what would be the cost of the total contract? The correct answer is US$ 93,000.
The calculation is as follows: Incentive fee based on budgeted costs = 8% of
100,000 = 8,000 Actual costs = 80,000 Share of cost savings = 25% of 20,000 =
5,000 (since the cost savings is 100,000 - 80,000) Hence the payout = 80,000 +
8,000 + 5,000 = US$ 93,000. [PMBOK 5th edition, Page 364] [Project Procurement
Management]
a) US$ 108,000
b) US$ 93,000
c) US$ 112,000
d) US$ 91,000
A project is contracted on a cost plus incentive fee (CPIF) basis. The contract
states that if the final costs are less than expected costs, the sharing formula for
cost savings is 80:20. The targeted cost is US$ 5000,000 with a 10% fee. If the
project comes in at US$450,000, what would be the total cost of the contract? In a
Cost-Plus-Incentive-Fee (CPIF) type of contract, the seller is reimbursed for
allowable costs for performing the contract work and receives a predetermined fee.
In some cases, if the final costs are less than the expected costs, then both the
buyer and the seller benefit from the cost savings based on a pre-negotiated
sharing formula. In the current situation, the predetermined fee is 10% of US$
500,000 = US$ 50,000. Since the project came in at US$ 450,000, the savings is
500,000 - 450,000 = 50,000. The sharing formula is 80:20, hence the additional
payout to the seller = (20/100) * 50,000 = 10,000. Hence the value of the total
contract = 450,000 + 50,000 + 10,000 = US$ 510,000. [PMBOK 5th edition, Page
364] [Project Procurement Management]
a) US$ 495,000
b) US$ 510,000
c) US$ 505,000
d) US$ 550,000
A project is contracted as time and materials type of contract. The service provider
initially estimates that the total effort involved would be about 1000 hours of effort.
The project is contracted at a rate of US$75 per hour of effort. If the project ends
up with 1200 hours of effort, what will the contract payout be? The correct answer
is US$ 90,000. Since this is a T&M contract, the contract is open-ended in value.
Hence the contract value is the actual effort multiplied by the agreed rate = US$
75 × 1200 = US$ 90,000. [PMBOK 5th edition, Page 364] [Project Procurement
Management]
a) US$75,000
b) US$90,000
c) US$82,000
d) US$120,000
A project is contracted as a cost plus fixed fee (CPFF) basis. The targeted cost is
US $ 200,000 with a fee of US $30.000. If the project comes in at US$30,000. If
the project comes in at US $170,000, what would be the total cost of the contract?
In a Cost-Plus-Fixed-Fee (CPFF) type of contract, the seller is reimbursed for
allowable costs and receives a fixed fee payment calculated as a percentage of
the estimated project costs. The fixed fee does not vary with actual costs unless
the project scope changes. In the current scenario, the fixed fee is fixed up as US$
30,000. Although the actual project comes in at 170,000, the fixed fee remains the
same. Hence the total cost to the project will be 170,000 + 30,000 = 200,000.
[PMBOK 5th edition, Page 364] [Project Procurement Management]
a) US$ 195,500
b) US$ 230,000
c) US$ 200,000
d) US$ 170,000
A project is contracted on a cost plus fixed fee (CPFF) basis with a fee of 10% of
estimated costs. The estimated cost is US$ 50,000. If the project comes in at US$
75,000 with no changes in project scope, what would be the total cost of the
contract? In the Cost-Plus-Fixed-Fee (CPFF) type of contract, the seller is
reimbursed for allowable costs for performing the contract work and receives a fee
calculated as an agreed-upon percentage of the costs. The costs vary depending
on the actual cost. The fee is based on estimated costs unless the scope of the
project changes. For the current project, the agree-upon percentage of costs is
10%. The actual cost is US$ 75,000 even though the initial estimate was US$
50,000. However, the fee is calculated as 10% of 50,000 = (10/100) × 50,000 =
5,000. The total cost of the contract is 75,000 + 5,000 = US$ 80,000. [PMBOK 5th
edition, Page 364] [Project Procurement Management]
a) US$ 55,000
b) US$ 125,000
c) US$ 75,000
d) US$ 80,000
You have received a proposal for an RFP that was sent to vendors. One of the
vendors has proposed doing the project for $12,500. The cost for the project is
$10.000 and their profit will be $2,500. Which type of contract is most suitable for
this situation? Apparently it looks like the vendor is asking for a cost plus fixed fee
contract. However, the vendor is actually looking for a fixed price contract when
they asked for a fixed $12,500. The cost and fee are just the components the
vendor has estimated to come up with a final price. [PMBOK 5th edition, Page 362,
363] [Project Procurement Management]
Internal Stakeholders:
These stakeholders are internal to the organization; e.g.
A sponsor
Internal customer or client (if project arose due to internal need of an organization)
Project team
A program manager
A portfolio manager
Management
Other group’s manager internal to the organization; e.g. functional manager,
operational manager, admin manger, etc.
External Stakeholders:
These stakeholders are external to the organization; e.g.
External customer or client (if project arose due to a contract)
End users of project’s outcome
Supplier
Sub-contractors
Government
Local communities
Media
Stakeholder Classification:
Stakeholders can be classified based on their power and interest, power and
influence, influence and impact, and power, urgency and legitimacy
Among all, power and interest classification is the most widely used to classify the
stakeholders
Stakeholder Management Strategy:
It is a plan which is developed to keep satisfied all stakeholders by fulfilling their
expectations and requirements
It ensures receiving full cooperation from the stakeholders with minimum
obstruction
It should be kept in a secure place because it may contain sensitive information
that cannot be shown to everybody
TOOL AND TECHNIQUES OF IDENTIFY THE STAKEHOLDERS:
Stakeholder Analysis: gathering & analyzing information to
determine stakeholder in 3 steps:
1. Identify all potential stakeholders & relevant information (roles, departments,
interests, knowledge levels, expectations & influence levels).
2. Identify potential impact or support each stakeholder could generate (power-
interest)
3. Assess how key stakeholders are likely to react or respond to various situations.
STAKEHOLDER REGISTER:
A project document including the identification, assessment, and classification of the
stakeholders.
Figure 13-2. Power-Interest Grid
ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUES, ENGAGEMENT LEVELS:
1. Unaware
2. Resistant
3. Neutral
4. Supportive
5. Leading
Where C indicates the current engagement, and D indicates the desired engagement
Attention:
Culture-centric is not rally a defined term. Egotistical refers to being self centered.
Enlightened self-interest refers to persons who act to further the interests of others
(or the interest of the group or groups to which they belong), ultimately serving
their own self-interest. Since neither egotistical nor enlightened self-relate to
culture, neither can be the best choice. Ethnocentric means tending to look at the
world primarily from the perspective of one’s own culture, and is therefore the best
choice.
Giving stakeholders extras is known as gold plating. This is not effective
stakeholder or quality management.
The requirement traceability matrix and stakeholder register are project
documents, not parts of the project management plan. Most project documents are
created by the project manager for his or her use during the project, and do not
require outside approval for changes.
A salience model is used in stakeholder analysis to classify stakeholders based on
their: power, urgency, and legitimacy.
By assessing potential problems with stakeholder engagement, the team is able
to identify and address related risks to project success.
When do stakeholders have the most influence on a project? At the beginning of
the project because in order to determine their requirements and expectations.
Although stakeholders have an impact throughout the project.
CHAPTER 14: BLIND LEARNING
Outputs
1. Requirement
documentation
2. Requirements
traceability matrix
4. Control Cost
Inputs
1. project management plan
2. Project funding requirements
3. Work performance data
4. Organizational Process Assets
Tools and Techniques
1. Earned value management
2. Forecasting
3. To complete performance index
(TCPI)
4. Performance reviews
5. Project management software
6. Reserve analysis
Outputs
1. Work performance information
2. Cost forecasts
3. Change requests
4. Project management plan
updates
5. Project documents updates
6. Organizational Process Assets
updates
Project Quality Management Overview
1. Plan Quality Management 2. Perform Quality Assurance 3. Quality Control:
Inputs
Inputs 1. Quality management Inputs
1. Project management plan 1. Project management
plan 2. Process improvement plan
2. Stakeholder register plan 2. Quality metrics
3. Risk register 3. Quality metrics 3. Quality checklists
4. Requirements 4. Quality control 4. Work performance data
documentation measurements 5. Approved change
5. Enterprise 5. Project documents requests
Environmental factors 6. Deliverables
6. Organizational Process Tools and Techniques 7. Project documents
Assets 1. Quality management and 8. Organizational process
control tools assets
Tools and Techniques 2. Quality audits
1. Cost benefit analysis 3. Process analysis Tools and Techniques
2. Cost of quality 1. Seven basic quality tools
3. Seven basic quality tools Outputs 2. Statistical sampling
4. Bench marking 1. Change request 3. Inspection
5. Design of experiments 2. Project management 4. Approved change
6. Statistical sampling plan updates requests review
7. Additional quality 3. Project documents
planning tools updates Outputs
8. Meetings 4. Organizational process 1. Quality control
assets updates measurements
Outputs 2. Validated changes
1. Quality management 3. Verified deliverables
plan 4. Work performance
2. Process improvement information
plan 5. Change requests
3. Quality metrics 6. Project management
4. Quality cheek lists plan updates
5. Project documents 7. Project documents
updates updates
8. Organizational process
assets updates
Project Human Resource Management Overview
1. Plan Human Resources Management 2. Acquire Project Team 4. Develop Project Team
Inputs Inputs
1. Project management plan 1. Human Resource Inputs
2. Activity resource requirements management plan 1. Human Resource
3. Enterprise Environmental 2. Enterprise management plan
factors Environmental 2. Project staff
4. Organizational Process Assets factors assignments
Tools and Techniques 3. Organizational 3. Resource calendars
1. Organization charts and Process Assets Tools and Techniques
position descriptions Tools and 1. Interpersonal skills
2. Networking Techniques 2. Training
3. Organizational theory 1. Pre-assignment 3. Team building
4. Expert judgement 2. Negotiation activities
5. Meetings 3. Acquisition 4. Ground rules
Outputs 4. Virtual teams 5. Colocation
1. Human resource management 5. Multi-criteria 6. Recognition and
plan decision analysis rewards
Outputs 7. Personnel
1. Project staff assessment tools
assignments Outputs
2. Resource calendars 1. Team performance
3. Project management assessments
plan updates 2. Enterprise
environmental factors
updates
Outputs
1. Risk register
4. Perform Quantitative risk 5. Plan Risk Responses 6. Control Risks
analysis Inputs
Inputs Inputs 1. Project management
1. Risk management plan 1. Risk management plan plan
2. Cost management plan 2. Risk register 2. Risk register
3. Schedule management 3. Work performance data
plan Tools and Techniques 4. Work performance
4. Risk register reports
5. Enterprise environmental 1. Strategies for negative Tools and Techniques
factors risks or threats 1. Risk assessment
6. Organizational process 2. Strategies for positive 2. Risk audits
assets risks or opportunities 3. Variance and trend
Tools and Techniques 3. Contingent response analysis
strategies 4. Technical performance
1. Data gathering and 4. Expert judgement measurements
representation 5. Reserve analysis
techniques Outputs 6. Meetings
2. Quantitative risk Outputs
analysis and modeling 1. Project management plan 1. Work performance
techniques updates information
3. Expert judgement 2. Project document updates 2. Change requests
3. Project management
Outputs plan updates
4. Project document
1. Project document updates
updates 5. Organizational Process
Assets updates
Project Procurement Management Overview
1. Plan Procurement 2. Conduct Procurement 3. Control Procurements
Management Inputs Inputs
Inputs 1. Procurement management 1. Project management
1. Project management plan plan
plan 2. Procurement documents 2. Procurement documents
2. Requirement 3. Source selection criteria 3. Approved change
documentation 4. Seller proposal requests
3. Risk register 5. Project documents 4. Agreement
4. Activity resource 6. Make or buy decision 5. Work performance
requirements 7. Procurement statement of reports
5. Project schedule work 6. Work performance data
6. Activity cost estimates 8. Organizational Process Tools and Techniques
7. Stakeholder register Assets 1. Contract change control
8. Enterprise Tools and Techniques system
Environmental factors 1. Bidder conference 2. Procurement
9. Organizational Process 2. Proposal evaluation performance reviews
Assets techniques 3. Inspection and audits
Tools and Techniques 3. Independent estimates 4. Performance reporting
1. Make or buy analysis 4. Expert judgement 5. Payment systems
2. Expert judgement 5. Advertising 6. Claim administration
3. Market research 6. Analytical techniques 7. Record management
4. Meetings 7. Procurement negotiations system
Outputs Outputs Outputs
1. Procurement 1. Selected seller 1. Work performance
management plan 2. Agreements information
2. Procurement statement 3. Resource calendar 2. Change requests
of work 4. Change requests 3. Project management
3. Procurements 5. Project management plan plan updates
documents updates 4. Project documents
4. Source selection 6. Project documents updates updates
criteria 5. Organizational process
5. Make or buy decision assets updates
6. Change requests
7. Project documents
updates
4. Close Procurements
Inputs
1. Project management
plan
2. Procurement
documents
Tools and Techniques
1. Procurement audits
2. Procurement
negotiation
3. Record management
system
Outputs
1. Closed procurement
2. Organizational
process assets
updates
Project Stakeholder Management Overview
1. Identify Stakeholders 2. Plan Stakeholders 3. Manage stakeholders
Inputs Management Engagement
1. Project charter Inputs Inputs
2. Procurement 1. Project management plan 1.Stakeholder
documents 2. Stake holder register management plan
3. Enterprise 3. Enterprise Environmental 2.Communication
Environmental factors factors management plan
4. Organizational Process 4. Organizational Process 3.Change log
Assets Assets 4.Organizational process
Tools and Techniques assets
1. Stake holders analysis Tools and Techniques Tools and Techniques
2. Expert judgement 1. Expert judgement 1.Communication methods
3. Meetings 2. Meetings 2.Interpersonal skills
Outputs 3. Analytical techniques 3.Management skills
1. Stake holder register Outputs Outputs
1. Stakeholder management 1.Issue log
plan 2.Change requests
2. Project documents 3.Project management
updates plan updates
4.Project documents
updates
5.Organizational process
assets updates
4. Control Stake holders
Engagement
Inputs
1. Project management plan
2. Issue log
3. Work performance data
4. Project documents
Tools and Techniques
1. Information management
system
2. Expert judgement
3. Meetings
Outputs
1. Work performance
information
2. Change requests
3. Project management plan
updates
4. Project document
updates
5. Organizational process
assets updates
Formulas Table for PMP
Abbreviation Name Equation Interpretation of results
PV Planned value (Planned % Complete) X
(BAC)
4. (Beta
Distribution) 4. (P+4M+O)/6