H.W.
2 - Solutions
1. a)
A B
C
b)
A B
c)
A B
d)
A B
e) Mutually exclusive events. The intersection of A and B would be empty. The process cannot produce parts with x =
50 cm and Y = 10 cm. It would have been an unsuccessful process.
2.. a) 0.25
b) 0.75
3. Let A = excellent surface finish; B = excellent length
a) P(A) = 82/100 = 0.82
b) P(B) = 90/100 = 0.90
c) P(A') = 1 – 0.82 = 0.18
d) P(A∩B) = 80/100 = 0.80
e) P(A∪B) = 0.92
f) P(A’∪B) = 0.98
4. a) 70/100 = 0.70
b) (79+86-70)/100 = 0.95
c) No, P( A ∩ B ) ≠ 0
5. a) P(A) = 86/100 b) P(B) = 79/100
P ( A ∩ B ) 70 / 100 70
c) P( A B ) = = =
P( B) 79 / 100 79
P( A ∩ B) 70 / 100 70
d) P( B A ) = = =
P( A) 86 / 100 86
6. a) 0.82 b) 0.90 c) 8/9 = 0.889
d) 80/82 = 0.9756
7. a) 4/499 = 0.0080
b) (5/500)(4/499) = 0.000080
c) (495/500)(494/499) = 0.98
8. a) 3/498 = 0.0060
b) 4/498 = 0.0080
c) 5 4 3 = 4.82x10 −7
500 499 498
9. a) P(A) = 0.03
b) P(A') = 0.97
c) P(B|A) = 0.40
d) P(B|A') = 0.05
e) P( A ∩ B ) = P( B A )P(A) = (0.40)(0.03) = 0.012
f) P( A ∩ B ') = P( B' A )P(A) = (0.60)(0.03) = 0.018
g) P(B) = P( B A )P(A) + P( B A ')P(A') = (0.40)(0.03) + (0.05)(0.97) = 0.0605
10. P( A ∩ B ) = 70/100, P(A) = 86/100, P(B) = 79/100.
Then, P( A ∩ B ) ≠ P(A)P(B), so A and B are not independent.
11. It is useful to work one of these exercises with care to illustrate the laws of probability. Let Hi denote the
event that the ith sample contains high levels of contamination.
a) P(H1' ∩ H'2 ∩ H'3 ∩ H'4 ∩ H'5 ) = P(H1' )P(H'2 )P(H'3 )P(H'4 )P(H'5 )
by independence. Also, P(Hi' ) = 0.9 . Therefore, the answer is 0.9 5 = 0.59
b) A1 = (H1 ∩ H'2 ∩ H'3 ∩ H'4 ∩ H'5 )
A 2 = (H1' ∩ H2 ∩ H'3 ∩ H'4 ∩ H'5 )
A 3 = (H1' ∩ H'2 ∩ H3 ∩ H'4 ∩ H'5 )
A 4 = (H1' ∩ H'2 ∩ H'3 ∩ H4 ∩ H'5 )
A 5 = (H1' ∩ H'2 ∩ H'3 ∩ H'4 ∩ H5 )
The requested probability is the probability of the union A 1 ∪ A 2 ∪ A 3 ∪ A 4 ∪ A 5 and these events
are mutually exclusive. Also, by independence P( A i ) = 0.9 4 (0.1) = 0.0656 . Therefore, the answer is
5(0.0656) = 0.328.
c) Let B denote the event that no sample contains high levels of contamination. The requested
probability is P(B') = 1 - P(B). From part (a), P(B') = 1 - 0.59 = 0.41.
12. Let G denote a product that received a good review. Let H, M, and P denote products that were high,
moderate, and poor performers, respectively.
a)
P(G ) = P(G H ) P( H ) + P(G M) P( M) + P(G P) P( P)
= 0. 95( 0. 40 ) + 0. 60 ( 0. 35) + 0. 10 ( 0. 25)
= 0. 615
b) Using the result from part a.,
P ( G H ) P ( H ) 0. 95( 0. 40 )
P( H G ) = = = 0. 618
P(G ) 0. 615
c) P ( H G ' ) = P ( G ' H ) P ( H ) = 0. 05( 0. 40 ) = 0. 052
P(G ' ) 1 − 0. 615
13. a) 20/200 b) 135/200 c) 65/200
d)
A
B
25 20 90
14. Let A i denote the event that the ith order is shipped on time.
a) By independence, P( A 1 ∩ A 2 ∩ A 3 ) = P( A 1 )P( A 2 )P( A 3 ) = (0.95) 3 = 0.0857
b) Let
B1 = A 1' ∩ A 2 ∩ A 3
B 2 = A 1 ∩ A '2 ∩ A 3
B 3 = A 1 ∩ A 2 ∩ A 3'
Then, because the B's are mutually exclusive,
P(B1 ∪ B 2 ∪ B 3 ) = P(B1) + P(B 2 ) + P(B 3 )
= 3(0.95) 2 (0.05)
= 0.135
c) Let
B1 = A 1' ∩ A 2' ∩ A 3
B2 = A 1' ∩ A 2 ∩ A 3'
B3 = A 1 ∩ A 2' ∩ A 3'
B4 = A 1' ∩ A 2' ∩ A 3'
Because the B's are mutually exclusive,
P(B1 ∪ B 2 ∪ B 3 ∪ B 4 ) = P(B1) + P(B 2 ) + P(B 3 ) + P(B 4 )
= 3(0.05) 2 (0.95) + (0.05) 3
= 0.00725
15. Let D denote the event that a container is incorrectly filled and let H denote the event that a container is
filled under high-speed operation. Then,
a) P(D) = P( D H )P(H) + P( D H ')P(H') = 0.01(0.30) + 0.001(0.70) = 0.0037
b)
P ( D H ) P ( H ) 0.01(0.30)
P( H D) = = = 0.8108
P( D) 0.0037
