Module 4 - Conditional Probability
Module 4 - Lesson
Learning Objectives
1. To understand the concept of conditional probability
2. To understand the applications of conditional probability
What is Conditional Probability?
What is Conditional Probability?
Conditional Probability is a measure of the probability of an event given that another event
has already occurred. If the event of interest is A and the event B is known or assumed to
have occurred, “the conditional probability of A given B”, is usually written as P(A|B).
If A and B are two events, then the conditional probability of A given B is defined as
P(A/B) = P(A∩B)/P(B), when P(B)>0.
If P(B)=0, then the conditional probability is undefined. When the event B never occurs, it is
meaningless to talk about the occurrence of event A provided the event B has already
occurred.
Note:
1. If B is a subset of A, then when B happens, it means that A also happens, hence
P(A/B) = 1
2. If the events A and B are independent, then P(A∩B)=P(A) * P(B)
Hence, P(A/B) = P(A)
3. P(A'/B) = 1-P(A/B)
4. P(A/B) is different from P(B/A)
What is the probability that two cards drawn at random from a pack of cards will both be
Kings?
Can we use the formula for the probability of two independent events,
Probability of a King drawn = 4/52
Hence, probability of two kings = 4/52 x 4/52 = 1/169.
This is incorrect, because the two events are not independent. If the first card drawn is a
King, then the probability that the second card is also a King is less because there would
only be three Kings left in the pack.
Once the first card chosen is a King, the probability that the second card chosen is also a
King is conditional probability. We need to find the probability of the King in the second
draw provided we have already drawn a king in the first draw. Symbolically,
P(King on second draw | a King on the first draw)
Hence, the probability of drawing two kings is 4/52 x 3/51 = 1/221
P(King on second draw | a King on the first draw)
=(1/222)/4/52) = 3/51
1. In a card game, suppose a player needs to draw two cards of the same suit in order
to win. Of the 52 cards, there are 13 cards in each suit. Suppose first the player
draws a heart. Now the player wishes to draw a second heart. Since one heart has
already been chosen, there are now 12 hearts remaining in a deck of 51 cards. So
the conditional probability P(Draw second heart|First card a heart) = 12/51.
2. A dice is rolled.
1. Find the probability that the number rolled is a six, given that it is even.
2. Find the probability that the number rolled is even, given that it is a six.
1. 1/3
2. 1
P(Even/Six) = P(Even and Six)/P(Six)
Even nos{2,4,6}
Even and Six {2,4,6} ∩ 6 = 6
P(Even) = 3/6
P(six) = 1/6
P(Even and Six)= 1/6
P(Even/Six) = P(Even and Six)/P(Six)
=(1/6)/(1/6) = 1
We can use the formula for conditional probability in many ways,
For example, if you know P(A/B) and P(B) we can calculate P(A∩B)
Example,
Suppose an individual applying to an Ivy college determines that he has an 80% chance of
being accepted, and he knows that dormitory housing will only be provided for 60% of all of
the accepted students. The chance of the student being accepted and receiving dormitory
housing is defined by
P(Accepted and Dormitory Housing) = P(Dormitory Housing | Accepted)P(Accepted) =
(0.60)*(0.80) = 0.48.
Take a challenge
In a factory there are 100 units of iron bearings, 8 of which are defective. We pick three
units from the 100 units at random, What is the probability that none of them are defective?
Let Ai be the event of choosing ith unit which is not defective.
A1 is the event of choosing 1st unit which is not defective
A2 is the event of choosing 2nd unit which is not defective
A3 is the event of choosing 3rd unit which is not defective
we have to calculate
P(A1∩A2∩A3)
In total there are 92 good units and 8 defective units.
Probability of choosing first non defective units is, P(A1)=92/100
The second item will be chosen from 91 good units
P(A2/A1) = 91/99
The third item will be chosen from 90 good units
P(A3/A2, A1) = 90/98
Hence,
P(A1∩A2∩A3) = P(A1) P(A2/A1) P(A3/A2, A1) = 92/100* 91/99 *90/98
=0.7766
Problems
1, A survey was undertaken to understand the marriage age pattern during their first
marriage in India by a sociologist. Out of the 960 individuals, there were 592 women. Of the
592 women, 183 had been married in their teens, 106 had been married in their twenties,
224 had been married in their thirties and the remaining in their forties. Among men, 98 had
been married in their teens, 159 in their twenties, 60 in their thirties and the remaining in
their forties. Suppose a person is selected at random.
1. Find the probability that the individual selected was a teenager at first marriage.
2. Find the probability that the individual selected was a teenager at first marriage,
given that the person is male
Solutions:
When encountering problems like this, it is always advised to convert the given data in a
table format.
First Marriage
Teens Twenties Thirties Forties Total
Women 183 106 224 79 592
Men 98 159 60 51 368
Total 281 265 284 130 960
1. The probability that the individual selected was a teenager at first marriage
= 281/960= 0.2927
2. The probability that the individual selected was a teenager at first marriage, given that the
person is male
P(Teenager/Male) = P(Teenager and Male) / P(Male) = 98/368 = 0.2663
We need to consider only the male data set.
2. Suppose that in an adult population the proportion of people who are both obese and
diabetic is 0.09; the proportion of people who are not obese, but suffer diabetic is 0.11; the
proportion of people who are obese but do not suffer diabetic is 0.02; and the proportion of
people who are neither obese nor suffer diabetic is 0.78. An adult is randomly selected from
this population.
1. Find the probability that the person selected suffers diabetes given that he is obese.
2. Find the probability that the selected person suffers diabetic given that he is not obese.
3. Compare the two probabilities just found to give an answer to the question as to whether
obese people tend to suffer from diabetes.
Let D denote the event “the person selected suffers diabetic.” Let O denote the event “the
person selected is obese.” The probability information given in the problem is put in a table.
O∩D Oc∩D O∩DC Oc∩ DC Total
0.09 0.11 0.02 0.78 1
Note that the given values are in proportions and not absolute values.
1. The probability that the person selected suffers diabetes given that he is obese is written
as,
P(D/O)= P(D∩O)/P(O)
It is a little difficult to calculate P(O) from the table unless you know the formula, rather We
can use a Venn diagram to show this data and make calculations easy.
In the Venn diagram,
P(O)= 0.09 + 0.02 = 0.11
P(D/O)= P(D∩O)/P(O)
= 0.0.9/0.11 = 0.8182
By formula,
P(D|O)=P(D∩O)/P(O)=0.09/0.11=0.818
2. The probability that the selected person suffers diabetic given that he is not obese is
written as
P(D/Oc) = P(D ∩ Oc)/P(Oc)
= 0.11/1-0.11
= 0.11/ 0.89
= 0.1234.
3. P(DO)=0.8182P(H|O)=0.8182 is over six times as large as P(D|Oc)=0.1234
P(D|Oc)=0.1234, which indicates a much higher rate of diabetic among people who are
obese than among people who are not obese.
Problem: 3
Given P(A) = 3/8, P(B) = 5/8, P(AUB) = ¾.
Find P(A/B), P(B/A). Check whether A and B are independent?
Answer:
Given P(A) = 3/8
P(B) = 5/8
P(AUB) = ¾.
P(A/B) = P(A B)/P(B)
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) +P(B) – P(A B)
P(AB)=P(A)+P(B) – P(A ∪ B)
= 3/8+5/8-3/4 = ¼
P(A/B) = P(A B)/P(B)
= ¼ / 5/8 = 2/5
P(B/A) = = P(A B)/P(A)
= ¼ / 3/8 = 2/3
Note that P(A/B) and P(B/A) are different.
P(A) P(B) = 3/8 * 5/8 = 15/64
P(A B) = 5/8
Hence, P(A B) is not equal to P(A) P(B)
Hence, the events A and B are not independent.
