Minervini Trading Strategy Deep Dive
Minervini Trading Strategy Deep Dive
Central to Minervini's consistent success is his proprietary and trademarked methodology, Specific Entry Point
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Analysis (SEPA). SEPA is characterized as a "highly disciplined," "surgical-precision trading strategy" designed
to deliver exceptional returns across diverse market conditions. Its efficacy stems from a meticulous combination
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of stringent risk management, rigorous self-analysis, and unwavering perseverance. The fundamental objective of
SEPA is to pinpoint high-potential stocks before they embark on substantial price movements, thereby enabling
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traders to establish positions at the most opportune moments. The evolution of SEPA was a deliberate process,
born from Minervini's relentless pursuit of a reliable, systematic approach to swing trading. This methodology was
refined through years of intensive study, persistent trial, and real-world application, with valuable lessons gleaned
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from both his triumphs and setbacks during the formative stages of his career.
Minervini's documented performance figures, such as averaging 220% annually for over five years and achieving a
33,500% total return, are statistically exceptional and far exceed what could be attributed to mere chance or
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transient market conditions. The consistent description of his method as a "proven, time-tested trading system"
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, a "trademarked stock market method" , and a "reliable, systematic strategy" strongly indicates that his
success is not random. Instead, it is the direct outcome of a highly structured, repeatable, and continuously
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refined process. The phrase "surgical-precision trading strategy" further reinforces that his approach is
deliberate, analytical, and leaves little to chance. This suggests that while market dynamics are inherently
unpredictable, the underlying principles of identifying and capitalizing on opportunities can be systematized and
consistently applied, leading to superior, rather than ordinary, returns. Mark Minervini's "Superperformance" is a
compelling demonstration of the efficacy of a meticulously developed and rigorously applied systematic trading
methodology, specifically his SEPA framework. This highlights that achieving extraordinary returns in the financial
markets is primarily a function of a well-defined, repeatable process, rather than relying on speculative intuition or
transient market luck.
Successful trading, according to Minervini, fundamentally necessitates a disciplined mindset and an unemotional,
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objective outlook. He places immense importance on cultivating a mindset geared towards consistent success,
effectively managing emotional responses, and assuming complete personal responsibility for all trading
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outcomes. He draws a powerful analogy between a trader's mental preparation and an athlete's readiness for
competition, advocating for visualization exercises to maintain composure and make well-considered choices
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irrespective of market fluctuations. He explicitly asserts that "without discipline, rules are meaningless" ,
highlighting that even the most robust strategies are ineffective without strict adherence. Furthermore, he
stresses the continuous pursuit of knowledge, learning from past experiences, and adapting to evolving market
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volatility as indispensable elements for sustained success.
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Minervini's unwavering commitment to a "risk-first" approach and "capital preservation" extends beyond mere
financial mechanics; it is deeply intertwined with profound psychological principles. The emphasis on cultivating
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an "unemotional, objective outlook" and "taking full responsibility" directly addresses the inherent human biases
that frequently undermine trading success. Emotions such as fear, greed, and ego often compel traders to deviate
from their plans, particularly by holding onto losing positions or taking excessive risks. Minervini's analogy of
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"trading without a stop loss is like driving a car without brakes" powerfully illustrates the catastrophic
consequences of emotional decision-making in the absence of stringent risk controls. By pre-defining exit points
and prioritizing the downside, he systematically removes the subjective, emotional interference that typically leads
to admitting fault or accepting small losses, thereby enabling rational and objective execution even under
pressure. Mark Minervini's "risk-first" philosophy is not merely a technical guideline but a fundamental
psychological discipline. Its primary purpose is to counteract inherent human biases, such as loss aversion and
ego, which are often the root cause of capital destruction in trading. By institutionalizing stringent risk
management protocols, Minervini empowers traders to maintain objectivity, adhere to their systems, and ensure
long-term survival and profitability in inherently volatile financial markets.
Chapter 2: Deconstructing Minervini's Trading Techniques
2.1. The "SPEAR" Methodology: A Granular Autopsy
Note: While the prompt uses "SPEAR," Minervini's primary trademarked methodology is "SEPA" (Specific Entry
Point Analysis). The components listed under "SPEAR" in the prompt align perfectly with the core elements of his
SEPA system and broader trading philosophy. For clarity and consistency with Minervini's own terminology, this
report will primarily refer to SEPA while addressing the specific components of SPEAR as integral parts of that
overarching methodology.
Although no single, explicit "pre-entry checklist" document is provided, the numerous stringent criteria that a
stock must satisfy (e.g., Minervini's Trend Template, Volatility Contraction Pattern characteristics, fundamental
filters) collectively function as a comprehensive multi-point checklist that must be thoroughly reviewed before
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initiating any trade. Minervini himself emphasizes the critical importance of such preparation, stating, "No setups
= no trades. Use a checklist before every entry" and advising against trading unless "three out of five of your
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safety checks are true". He also suggests the strategic discipline of pre-selecting a limited number of stocks
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(e.g., 1-2) and adhering to them to maintain focus.
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A cornerstone of Minervini's approach is the cultivation of an unemotional, objective outlook. Traders are urged
to "concentrate on aspects you can control," which explicitly includes the identification of exact entry and exit
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points. He strongly cautions against impulsive decisions that are driven by transient emotions or market hype.
The psychological discipline required involves waiting patiently for clear trend establishment and rigorously
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avoiding premature or impulsive entries. Furthermore, he highlights the necessity of actively recognizing and
overcoming common cognitive biases such as confirmation bias, anchoring, and loss aversion, which can
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significantly impair rational decision-making.
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The directive for "specific entry points" and the ambition to buy a stock and be "at a profit instantly" might
superficially suggest a strategy focused on rapid, aggressive action. However, a deeper analysis reveals that this
precision is inextricably linked with profound patience and discipline. The strict adherence to a "pre-entry
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checklist" and the requirement for "multiple indicators align" before initiating a trade fundamentally contradict
impulsive behavior. Instead, they demand a deliberate, waiting stance. Moreover, the emphasis on "low-risk entry
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opportunities" and entering "as close to his stop loss as possible" demonstrates that the precision sought is
not about speed, but about optimizing the risk-reward profile at the exact moment of entry. This implies that
Minervini patiently waits for the market to confirm his analytical framework and the underlying supply/demand
dynamics before committing capital, rather than attempting to predict future price movements speculatively. Mark
Minervini's "Specific Entry Point" is not a speculative guess but a meticulously calculated decision, underpinned by
rigorous pre-entry validation and unwavering psychological patience. This approach ensures that entries are
executed only when a confluence of technical and fundamental factors presents a low-risk, high-probability
opportunity, thereby maximizing the potential for immediate profitability and favorable risk-reward dynamics.
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For profit-taking, Minervini advises taking partial profits after achieving a 20-25% gain. He also targets selling
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half of his position when the gain achieved is double the original stop-loss amount. For aggressive loss-cutting,
he advocates for a strict, predefined stop-loss. His historical average loss is approximately 4-5%, with a maximum
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permissible loss of 10% on any single trade. In challenging or weak market conditions, he proactively tightens his
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stop-losses, reducing them from a typical 7-8% to a stricter 5-6%. Losses must be cut immediately and without
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any hesitation. A fundamental tenet of his strategy is that he has never executed a trade in over three decades
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without implementing a stop-loss order. The moment a stock's price triggers his predetermined stop-loss, he
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liquidates the position "without question". He explicitly warns against the detrimental use of "emotional stops,"
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which often lead to significantly larger and more damaging losses.
Minervini's approach to trade exits presents a critical dichotomy: his loss-cutting mechanism is characterized by
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an absolute and unquestioning adherence , while his profit-taking strategy is aggressive and dynamic. The
predefined, fixed percentage stop-loss (e.g., 5-8%, max 10%) serves as a non-negotiable, impenetrable defense.
In contrast, profit-taking involves the proactive act of "selling into strength" and "nailing down profits," even with
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the explicit acknowledgment that the stock might continue to appreciate further. This contrasting approach
underscores a pragmatic understanding of market cycles and the often-ephemeral nature of unrealized gains. It
prioritizes the consistent realization of profits for compounding purposes, rather than the speculative pursuit of
every marginal percentage point, which carries the inherent risk of giving back substantial gains. This dynamic
management of winners, juxtaposed with the rigid control of losers, is a central pillar of his capital preservation
philosophy. Mark Minervini's aggressive exit strategy is defined by an absolute, unemotional commitment to
cutting losses at predefined, tight percentages, while concurrently employing a flexible, "sell into strength"
approach for profitable trades. This dynamic profit-taking, even if it means foregoing some potential upside,
ensures that capital is consistently realized and compounded, thereby prioritizing tangible gains over hypothetical
maximums and systematically minimizing the impact of inevitable losing trades.
The explicit requirement to analyze risk management within the SPEAR framework, distinct from broader portfolio
risk, highlights its intrinsic role in individual trade execution. Minervini's emphasis on "precise entry points" that
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offer the "lowest risk and highest reward" is not solely about maximizing potential gains; it is fundamentally about
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minimizing initial exposure per share. By strategically entering a trade "as close to his stop loss as possible" , the
absolute price distance to the stop is inherently small. This allows for a proportionally larger position size for the
same predefined dollar risk. This proactive, embedded risk mitigation at the very inception of a trade is a hallmark
of his methodology, distinguishing it from reactive risk management applied after a position has been established.
It ensures that risk control is an architectural element of the trade, not a subsequent adjustment. Risk
management within Mark Minervini's SPEAR framework is fundamentally proactive and integrated directly into the
precise entry selection process. This approach enables optimal risk-reward ratios by minimizing the initial capital
at risk per share, thereby allowing for larger position sizes for a given dollar risk. Consequently, risk control
becomes an intrinsic and inseparable component of individual trade execution, rather than a reactive measure
applied after a position has been established.
Minervini employs a stringent "Trend Template" to identify and align with prevailing market trends and sector
leadership. This template, which he refers to as his "inviolable standard," ensures that only stocks exhibiting
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strong upward momentum are considered. The key metrics and observations within this template include:
● The current stock price must be above both its 150-day (30-week) and 200-day (40-week) moving average
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price lines.
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● The 150-day moving average must be positioned above the 200-day moving average.
● The 200-day moving average line must be trending upward for at least 1 month, with a preference for 4-5
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months minimum in most cases.
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● The 50-day moving average must be above both the 150-day and 200-day moving averages.
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● The current stock price must be trading above the 50-day moving average.
● The current stock price must be at least 30% higher than its 52-week low. Many of the most successful
selections will be 100%, 300%, or even greater above their 52-week low before they emerge from a sound
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consolidation and initiate a large-scale advance.
● The current stock price must be within at least 25% of its 52-week high, with closer proximity to a new high
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being more favorable.
● The relative strength ranking (as reported in Investor's Business Daily) should be no less than 70, with a
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preference for rankings in the 80s or 90s, which typically characterize the best selections.
Minervini also developed a "Leadership Profile" to identify the qualities and traits of historically successful stocks,
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which helps him discern the causes of their outperformance for future identification.
Aligning with strong market trends is not merely a preference but a fundamental strategic imperative for Minervini.
By focusing exclusively on stocks in confirmed Stage 2 uptrends and within leading industry groups, he
dramatically increases the probability of his trades succeeding. This approach provides a "tailwind" that amplifies
individual stock performance, making it easier for winning trades to generate substantial gains while
simultaneously reducing the inherent risk associated with fighting against the broader market direction. This is
why he emphasizes that 99% of the biggest winning stocks have made their moves above the 200-day moving
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average with the 200-day trending upwards. The market's overall health and direction dictate his level of
aggressiveness, position sizing, and cash allocation. In strong, confirmed bull markets, he increases his exposure
and takes larger positions, capitalizing on widespread upward momentum. Conversely, during periods of market
weakness, high volatility, or declining breadth, he significantly reduces his exposure, raises cash, and may even
avoid trading altogether. This adaptive strategy ensures that his capital is deployed most efficiently in favorable
environments and protected during adverse conditions, thereby minimizing drawdowns and preserving capital for
future opportunities.
A VCP typically forms with 2 to 6 contractions, with each pullback being smaller than the preceding one, creating
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a symmetrical "base" that tightens from left to right. For instance, an initial pullback might be 25%, followed by
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15%, and then a final contraction of 8%. Ideally, each contraction sees a decrease in volatility of approximately
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50%. During these contractions, trading volume should also decrease, signaling reduced activity from sellers
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and indicating that supply is drying up. The pattern culminates at a "pivot point" where the price range is at its
tightest and volume is very low. A breakout above this level, accompanied by a significant increase in volume, is
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interpreted as a strong signal of institutional buying and potential for continued upward movement.
The psychological underpinnings of the VCP illustrate the evolving balance between buyers and sellers. Initially,
sharp pullbacks dominate as sellers control the market. However, as institutional buyers begin to accumulate
shares, they establish support levels, preventing further price declines. Each subsequent, smaller pullback
signifies that sellers are losing momentum, and fewer investors are willing to sell, indicating a decrease in fear.
This shift in market sentiment, as the stock holds up better with each dip, suggests that larger players are
accumulating. The tightening price and volume contractions create a "pressure cooker" effect, building
anticipation among market participants. When the stock finally breaks out on increased volume, it confirms that
demand has decisively surpassed supply, releasing pent-up pressure and attracting new buyers who validate the
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breakout and reinforce the stock's strength. The VCP visually represents a fundamental shift in supply-demand
dynamics. The gradual reduction in volatility and volume during the contraction phases indicates that the available
supply of shares is being absorbed by stronger hands (institutional investors), leading to a state of equilibrium
where selling pressure is exhausted. This methodical accumulation, often invisible to the average trader, creates a
coiled spring effect. The subsequent breakout on increased volume is the market's clear signal that demand has
overwhelmed supply, confirming the underlying accumulation and signaling the start of a significant price
advance. This pattern provides a high-probability entry point by allowing traders to capitalize on this confirmed
imbalance.
● Earnings Per Share (EPS) Growth: Minervini looks for a minimum of 20-50% growth in EPS, often
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preferring even higher rates. Quarterly EPS growth should be at least 25%, with accelerating growth over
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the last two quarters. Annual EPS growth should also be at least 25% for each of the last three years, with
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acceleration in the last full year.
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● Sales Growth: He requires strong sales growth, typically 20% or more. Quarterly sales growth should be at
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least 25%, with acceleration in each of the last two quarters. Annual sales growth should be at least 15% for
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the past three years, with acceleration in the last year. Rising revenues indicate robust demand for the
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company's products or services.
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● Profit Margins: Minervini looks for companies with "improved" profit margins , indicating positive growth in
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operating and net margins over the past year, reflecting efficient operations and cost control.
● Return on Equity (ROE): While no explicit minimum percentage is provided, strong ROE is a characteristic of
companies he considers. For example, he highlights stocks with ROE of 10.52% and 23.94% as reflecting
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"strong profitability" and "effective utilization of shareholder equity".
● Institutional Ownership: He looks for a "healthy ownership distribution" with significant institutional
shareholders, such as 61.53% or 63.58%, as this reflects institutional confidence and can foster increased
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trading activity. Institutional sponsorship is crucial for fueling price movements.
Minervini's integration of rigorous fundamental criteria with technical analysis serves a critical purpose: it provides
the underlying "fuel" for sustained price appreciation. While technical patterns signal potential breakouts, strong
earnings and sales growth, healthy profit margins, and institutional accumulation confirm that the price movement
is backed by genuine business strength, rather than speculative hype. This dual-filter approach helps to
differentiate true market leaders from "momentum traps"—stocks that may show temporary technical strength
but lack the fundamental substance to sustain long-term gains. By ensuring that only fundamentally sound
companies are considered, Minervini significantly reduces the risk of investing in transient trends, thereby
increasing the probability of identifying stocks capable of "Superperformance."
2.2.3. Technical Prerequisites
Minervini's methodology is deeply rooted in the analysis of price action, volume, moving averages, and relative
strength, which collectively form his "Trend Template" and other screening filters.
● Price Action: Stocks must be in a clear uptrend, characterized by consistent positive price action, including
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higher highs and higher lows. He seeks stocks that are at or near their 52-week highs, emphasizing that
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"leadership is never at the 52-week-low list".
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● Volume Analysis: Volume is critical for confirming price action and signaling institutional interest. Minervini
looks for:
○ Increasing Volume on Breakouts: Breakouts from consolidation patterns should be accompanied by a
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surge in volume, indicating strong buying interest and institutional accumulation.
○ Decreasing Volume on Pullbacks/Consolidation: During periods of consolidation or pullbacks, volume
should decrease, suggesting a lack of significant selling pressure and that weak hands are being shaken
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out.
○ Volume Spikes: Sudden increases in trading volume are closely monitored as they often indicate
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institutional buying, which can significantly impact a stock's price movement.
○ Quiet Volume Periods: Phases where volume is below average, particularly during the formation of
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"handles" in patterns like cup-with-handle, are key indicators often preceding strong breakouts.
● Moving Average Confluence: Minervini's Trend Template relies on a precise alignment of moving averages
to confirm a Stage 2 uptrend:
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○ The current stock price must be above its 150-day (30-week) and 200-day (40-week) moving averages.
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○ The 150-day moving average must be above the 200-day moving average.
○ The 200-day moving average must be trending upward for at least 1 month, preferably 4-5 months
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minimum.
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○ The 50-day moving average must be above both the 150-day and 200-day moving averages.
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○ The current stock price must be above the 50-day moving average.
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○ The current stock price must be at least 30% above its 52-week low.
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○ The current stock price must be within 25% of its 52-week high.
● Relative Strength (RS) Analysis: Minervini places significant emphasis on RS, particularly the IBD-style RS
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rating and line.
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○ He screens for stocks with an RS ranking of no less than 70, preferably in the 80s or 90s. This indicates
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the stock is outperforming at least 70% of the market.
○ The IBD-style RS Rating is a numerical score (1-99) measuring a stock's performance over 252 trading
days (one year) relative to a benchmark like the S&P 500 (SPY). It is a weighted average of price changes
over 63, 126, 189, and 252 days, with double weight often given to the most recent 3-month
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performance.
○ He looks for a rising RS Line and RS New Highs to spot breakout candidates, while avoiding stocks with a
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declining RS Line or an RS Rating below 70.
The meticulous combination of these technical indicators creates a robust filter, significantly reducing false
signals and increasing the probability of identifying stocks poised for substantial gains. Each indicator provides a
unique layer of confirmation, ensuring that only the highest-quality setups are considered. For instance, a stock
meeting all moving average criteria, showing strong relative strength, and breaking out on heavy volume is a high-
conviction trade. This multi-factor technical confluence allows Minervini to filter out market noise and focus on
stocks that exhibit genuine institutional accumulation and strong upward momentum.
To identify these leading groups, he uses sector performance tools and prioritizes stocks within those areas where
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capital is actively flowing. Once leading industries are identified, he filters for the strongest individual stocks
within those groups by applying his rigorous fundamental and technical criteria, such as high relative strength
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compared to peers within the same sector.
Focusing on sectoral leadership acts as a powerful force multiplier for individual stock performance. When a stock
is part of a strong, leading industry group, it benefits from a collective tailwind that can amplify its gains and
provide additional support during market fluctuations. This approach increases the probability of finding
"Superperformance" stocks because leaders tend to emerge from leading sectors. It also helps in managing
portfolio risk by concentrating capital in areas of the market that are demonstrating clear strength, rather than
diversifying into underperforming or stagnant sectors.
● Breakout from Bases: The ideal entry occurs when a stock breaks out above a recent base or consolidation
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pattern, such as a Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP), Cup-with-Handle, Flat Base, Triangle, or Flag.
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● Proximity to Breakout Point: The optimal entry is typically within 5% of the breakout point. This tight
range is crucial for maintaining a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
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● Volume Confirmation: Breakouts must be accompanied by "strong volume". This surge in volume confirms
institutional buying interest and validates the strength of the breakout. Prior to the breakout, volume should
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ideally "dry up," indicating seller exhaustion.
● "Cheat Entries": Minervini also employs "cheat entries" to get into a stock earlier than the conventional
breakout point. These occur when sellers are exhausted, price action tightens, and volume contracts, offering
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a low-risk, high-reward setup ahead of the main move.
● Cup-with-Handle: This pattern, resembling a teacup with a handle, indicates a period of consolidation (the
cup) followed by a smaller, tighter consolidation (the handle) before a breakout. Minervini looks for increased
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volume on the breakout from the handle.
● Flat Bases: These are rectangular consolidation patterns where price moves sideways within a narrow range
after a prior advance. They signal that investors are holding shares, anticipating further gains, and are
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confirmed by a breakout on increased volume.
● Flags (including High Tight Flag/Power Play): A powerful continuation pattern, a flag resembles a small
flag on the chart after a sharp, nearly vertical price rise (the flagpole). The "High Tight Flag" or "Power Play" is
a particularly explosive variant, characterized by an initial price surge of 100% or more in a short period (4-8
weeks), followed by a tight consolidation (1-3 weeks, with a retrace of no more than 10-20%) on decreased
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volume, preceding a breakout on increased volume.
● Triangles: These patterns, formed by converging trendlines, indicate a tightening of price action and
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decreasing volatility, often preceding a breakout.
● Double Bottoms: While less common for Minervini's primary entry, this reversal pattern involves two lows
with a rebound in between. In the CAN SLIM system (which shares some principles with Minervini's), Double
Bottoms are viewed as continuation patterns in an uptrend, where strong stocks re-establish upward
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momentum after testing support.
Minervini relies on these patterns because they are visual representations of the supply-demand dynamics at play.
They indicate periods where selling pressure is diminishing, and institutional accumulation is occurring, leading to
a "coiling" action that precedes significant price increases. These patterns offer low-risk entry opportunities by
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providing clear pivot points and defined stop-loss levels, making them ideal for his momentum-based strategy.
● Moving Averages (MA): The 50-day, 150-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) are fundamental
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to his Trend Template. He also uses Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) in some applications, as EMAs react
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faster to recent price action, useful in fast-moving markets. These MAs are used for:
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○ Trend Identification: Confirming a stock is in a Stage 2 uptrend.
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○ Support and Resistance: Acting as dynamic support levels during pullbacks.
○ Momentum Confirmation: Alignments (e.g., 50-day MA > 150-day MA > 200-day MA) signal strong
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momentum.
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○ Exit Signals: Price closing below key MAs (e.g., 50-day or 150-day EMA) can trigger a full exit.
● Relative Strength (RS) Rating and Line: As discussed, RS is a critical measure of a stock's outperformance
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relative to the broader market or its peers. A rising RS line and high RS rating (preferably 80-90+) indicate
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leadership and institutional accumulation, which are essential characteristics for his stock selection.
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● Volume: Volume analysis is integrated with every chart pattern and price movement. It confirms the validity
of breakouts (high volume on price increases) and signals diminishing selling pressure during consolidations
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(low volume on pullbacks). Volume spikes indicate institutional interest.
● Relative Strength Index (RSI): While not a core criterion in his Trend Template, RSI is mentioned as a
consideration. Minervini's examples sometimes include stocks with RSI above 78, a level often considered
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"overbought". This can present a dilemma, as high RSI levels historically precede corrections. He suggests
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mitigating this by waiting for pullbacks or pairing with sentiment analysis.
● Average True Range (ATR): ATR is used for calculating stop-loss levels, helping to set volatility-adjusted
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stops.
● Other Mentions (less prominent in core strategy): Anchored VWAP (AVWAP), Stochastic Oscillator, MACD,
DMI (Directional Movement Index) are mentioned in the context of various trading scripts inspired by
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Minervini's methods, but are not explicitly detailed as his primary tools. His core focus remains on price,
volume, moving averages, and relative strength.
Minervini's reliance on these indicators stems from their ability to provide objective, quantifiable insights into
market behavior. He combines them to filter out noise and focus on stocks that not only show promising technical
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patterns but are also fundamentally strong. This integrated approach enhances the probability of identifying
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successful trades and aligns with his overarching emphasis on precision, discipline, and risk management.
● Initial Capital Allocation per Trade: Minervini advises risking no more than 1.25% to 2.5% of total equity
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on a single trade. For initial "test positions" used to gauge market conditions, he may start with a smaller
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risk, such as 0.5% of capital. This conservative initial allocation minimizes impact if the trade does not
immediately perform as expected.
● Scaling In/Out Techniques and Conditions: Minervini practices "progressive exposure," a dynamic
technique where market exposure is adjusted based on performance feedback and prevailing market
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conditions.
○ Scaling In (Adding to Winners): He starts with small "test positions." If these initial trades begin to work
and provide positive feedback, he becomes more aggressive, gradually increasing both position sizing
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and the number of trades. This is part of his "Add and Reduce" trade management technique. He aims
for optimal positions of 20-25% in the best names, with a maximum position size never exceeding 50% of
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the portfolio.
○ Scaling Out (Reducing Exposure): Conversely, if initial positions are stopped out or fail to gain traction,
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he waits for market conditions to improve before increasing exposure. He also scales out by taking
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partial profits when a stock reaches his profit targets, reducing his exposure to the remaining position.
● The Relationship Between Stop-Loss Percentage and Position Size: Position sizing is directly and
mathematically linked to the stop-loss percentage. The core principle is to maintain a consistent dollar risk
per trade. This implies an inverse relationship: if a stock's volatility necessitates a wider stop-loss (e.g., 10%),
the position size must be proportionally smaller to ensure the dollar amount risked remains within the
predefined 1.25-2.5% of total equity.
○ Formula Example: If a trader has $100,000 capital and is willing to risk 2% per trade ($2,000), and the
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stop-loss is $5 per share below the entry price, the position size would be $2,000 / $5 = 400 shares.
This ensures that the potential loss is capped at the predetermined dollar amount, regardless of the
stock's price or volatility.
● Impact of Market Conditions on Position Sizing: Market conditions significantly influence Minervini's
position sizing.
○ Favorable Markets: In confirmed bullish markets with many stocks setting up and breaking out, he
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increases his aggressiveness, taking larger position sizes and more trades.
○ Unclear/Weak Markets: In difficult or weak markets, he adjusts by taking quicker profits and smaller
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losses, and significantly reduces his overall exposure and position sizes. He may also get off margin
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immediately.
○ Bear Markets: In true bear markets, his strategy leads to holding 100% cash, effectively eliminating
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market exposure and preserving capital.
3.3. Overall Portfolio Risk and Drawdown Management: The Grand Strategy
Minervini's approach to overall portfolio risk and drawdown management is holistic and deeply integrated with his
market assessment. His primary objective is to manage total portfolio exposure, control aggregate risk, and
navigate periods of drawdown effectively, always prioritizing capital preservation.
● Holistic Approach to Managing Total Portfolio Exposure: Minervini's routines are driven by a "bottoms-
up" approach, where he screens individual stocks to gauge the market's overall health, rather than solely
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relying on indices. He categorizes stocks into "Buy Alert," "High On Deck," and "Watchlist" based on their
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price action and setup quality. This daily analysis of individual stock movement dictates his level of
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aggressiveness for the next trading session. He emphasizes that a trader's actual results encompass not
only their strategy but also the "faults, abnormalities, and emotions" that often override even the best-laid
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plans.
● Controlling Aggregate Risk and Navigating Drawdown: Minervini tracks key performance metrics such as
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win rate, expected risk-to-reward ratio, actual gain vs. loss, and length of time in winners vs. losers. He
advises keeping maximum portfolio drawdown below 20-30% to protect capital and facilitate quicker
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recovery from rough patches. If drawdown becomes too large, he recommends smaller position sizes and
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greater diversification.
● Strategies for Reducing Exposure, Raising Cash, or Avoiding Specific Market Environments:
○ Progressive Exposure: This is a core strategy for dynamic risk management. In favorable market
conditions, exposure is increased; in unclear conditions, smaller positions are taken; and in unfavorable
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conditions, no risk is taken, leading to 100% cash.
○ Market Sentiment and Breakout Success: He leans bullish when many stocks are setting up and
breaking out, and stays bullish as they make new highs. Conversely, he leans bearish when few stocks are
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setting up and stays bearish when breakouts fail and stocks make new lows.
○ Avoiding Volatile/Choppy Markets: Minervini avoids trading in highly volatile or choppy markets,
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recognizing that such environments increase whipsaws and make consistent returns difficult. He will
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stay small and mostly in cash when individual stocks are "whipping all over the place".
○ Market Theme Recognition: He identifies prevailing market themes, such as the "Pop And Drop" theme
in 2021, where breakouts would quickly fail. This recognition informs his decision to take quicker profits
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and reduce exposure.
○ Market Breadth Observations: While not explicitly detailed with precise metrics in all provided snippets,
Minervini assesses various indicators to gauge market strength and health, including market breadth,
24
leading sectors, and the performance of major indices. He looks for divergences between the Advance-
60
Decline Ratio and market indices as potential reversal signals. He also observes new highs and lows,
noting that too many new highs can indicate an overbought market, while too few can signal an oversold
6
condition. This holistic view helps him make informed decisions about trade management and overall
24
market exposure.
The core principle of cutting small losses and letting large winners run creates a positive expectancy, which is the
mathematical engine of compounding returns. This approach systematically ensures that the cumulative impact of
profitable trades outweighs the inevitable small losses, leading to exponential capital growth over time, even with
a moderate win rate.
Conclusions
Mark Minervini's trading methodology represents a highly refined and systematically applied approach to
achieving "Superperformance" in the stock market. The forensic investigation into his strategies reveals a
profound integration of rigorous fundamental and technical analysis, meticulously structured within his
trademarked Specific Entry Point Analysis (SEPA) framework.
The cornerstone of Minervini's success is his unwavering "risk-first" philosophy. This is not merely a technical
guideline but a deeply ingrained psychological discipline that actively counteracts inherent human biases. By
mandating precise, low-risk entry points and an absolute, unemotional adherence to predefined stop-losses, he
ensures that capital preservation is paramount. This proactive risk mitigation, embedded at the very inception of
each trade, allows for optimal position sizing and limits the impact of inevitable losing trades.
His stock selection is a surgical process, combining stringent fundamental prerequisites (strong, accelerating
earnings and sales growth, healthy margins, and institutional ownership) with a multi-factor technical confluence.
The Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP) serves as a critical indicator of supply-demand imbalance, signaling high-
probability breakouts. This is complemented by a rigorous Trend Template, which ensures alignment with
prevailing market trends and sectoral leadership, providing a powerful tailwind for identified opportunities.
Minervini's aggressive exit strategy is characterized by a dynamic approach to profit realization—selling into
strength and taking partial profits at predetermined targets—while maintaining a static, uncompromising stance
on loss-cutting. This dichotomy ensures that gains are consistently realized and compounded, prioritizing tangible
returns over speculative maximums. The consistent application of a favorable risk-reward ratio, as illustrated by
his 2:1 target, is the mathematical engine that drives compounding returns, allowing a few large winners to offset
numerous small losses.
Ultimately, Minervini's unparalleled track record is a testament to the power of a disciplined, systematic, and
adaptive trading system. His emphasis on continuous learning, objective decision-making, and the cultivation of a
winning mindset underscores that trading mastery is a learned skill, built upon meticulous preparation, unwavering
adherence to rules, and the profound psychological fortitude to manage both triumphs and setbacks with
equanimity. His methodologies provide a comprehensive blueprint for traders seeking to move beyond
conventional returns and achieve sustained, exceptional performance in the financial markets.
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