I.
Random Variables and Probability Distributions
• A random variable is a variable whose value is a numerical outcome of a random
phenomenon.
o It's denoted with a capital letter (e.g., X).
o It can be discrete or continuous.
• A discrete random variable has a countable number of possible values.
o Examples include the number of students present, the number of red marbles
in a jar, the number of heads when flipping three coins, or students' grade
level.
• The probability distribution of a discrete random variable X is a list of each
possible value of X, along with the probability that X takes that value in one trial of
the experiment.
• The probabilities in the probability distribution of a random variable X must satisfy
two conditions:
o Each probability P(x) must be between 0 and 1: 0 ≤ P(x) ≤ 1.
o The sum of all possible probabilities is 1: Σ P(x) = 1.
Example:
• A fair coin is tossed twice. Let X be the number of heads observed.
o The possible values of X are 0, 1, and 2.
o The sample space is S = {hh, ht, th, tt}.
o X = 0 corresponds to {tt}, X = 1 to {ht, th}, and X = 2 to {hh}.
o The probability distribution of X is:
x 0 1 2
P(x) 0.25 0.50 0.25
• The probability of observing at least one head (X ≥ 1) is P(1) + P(2) = 0.50 + 0.25
= 0.75.
II. Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)
• The cumulative distribution function (CDF) calculates the probability that X is less
than or equal to some value x: P(X ≤ x).
• Given a discrete random variable X and its probability distribution function P(X = x)
= f(x), the CDF is defined as: 𝐹(𝑥) = 𝑃(𝑥 ≤ 𝑥) = ∑𝑥𝑡=𝑥∗𝑚𝑖𝑛 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑡)
Example:
• Let the pmf of X be f(x) = (5 - x) / 10, for x = 1, 2, 3, 4.
• The cdf of X is:
o For t = 1, P(X ≤ 1) = P(X = 1) = f(1) = 4/10
o For t = 2, P(X ≤ 2) = P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) = 4/10 + 3/10 = 7/10
o For t = 3, P(X ≤ 3) = 4/10 + 3/10 + 2/10 = 9/10
o For t = 4, P(X ≤ 4) = 4/10 + 3/10 + 2/10 + 1/10 = 1
III. Using the Complement
• The complement formula is used to calculate the probability that X is greater than
a certain value: P(X > x) = 1 - P(X ≤ x).
Example:
• Using the previous coin toss example, the probability of observing more than one
head is:
o P(X > 1) = 1 - P(X ≤ 1) = 1 - (P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)) = 1 - (0.25 + 0.50) =
0.25
• The probability of observing at least one head is:
o P(X ≥ 1) = P(X > 1) + P(X = 1) = 0.25 + 0.50 = 0.75
IV. Probability Mass Function (PMF)
• The probability that a discrete random variable X takes on a particular value x, P(X
= x), is often denoted as f(x).
• The function f(x) is called the probability mass function (p.m.f.).
• PMFs represent the "equal to" probabilities.
V. Mean and Variance of Random Variables
• Discrete random variables, like data sets, have measures of central tendency
(mean) and variability (variance).
• The mean of a discrete random variable X, also called the expected value of X, is
denoted by E(X) and is calculated as: 𝐸(𝑋) = 𝜇𝑥 = ∑[𝑥 ∗ 𝑃 (𝑥𝑖 )]
o where x is the value of the random variable for outcome i, 𝜇𝑥 is the mean of
random variable X, and 𝑃(𝑥𝑖 ) is the probability that the random variable will
be outcome i.
Example:
• In a little league softball game where each player went to bat 4 times, the number
of hits made by each player is described by the following probability distribution
Number of hits, x 0 1 2 3 4
Probability, P(x) 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.25 0.15
• The mean of the probability distribution is: E(X) = 0*0.10 + 1*0.20 + 2*0.30 +
3*0.25 + 4*0.15 = 2.15
• The median of a discrete random variable is the "middle" value, where P(X ≤ x) ≥
0.5 and P(X ≥ x) ≥ 0.5.
• In the previous example, the median is 2 because P(X ≤ 2) = 0.60 and P(X ≥ 2) =
0.70.
o The variance of a discrete random variable is calculated as: 𝜎 2 =
∑{[𝑥𝑖 ∗ 𝐸(𝑥 )]2 ∗ 𝑃(𝑥𝑖 )where x is the value of the random variable for outcome
i, 𝑃(𝑥𝑖 ) is the probability that the random variable will be outcome i, and E(x)
is the expected value of the discrete random variable x.
Example:
• The number of adults living in homes on a randomly selected city block is described
by the following probability distribution:
Number of adults, x 1 2 3 4
Probability, P(x) 0.25 0.50 0.15 0.10
• E(X) = 1*0.25 + 2*0.50 + 3*0.15 + 4*0.10 = 2.10
• 𝜎 2 = (1 − 2.1)^2 ∗ 0.25 + (2 − 2.1)^2 ∗ 0.50 + (3 − 2.1)^2 ∗ 0.15 + (4 −
2.1)^2 ∗ 0.10 = 0.79
• The standard deviation is the square root of the variance: √0.79 ≈ 0.889.
VI. Binomial Probability Distribution
• A binomial experiment has the following properties:
o The experiment consists of n repeated trials.
o Each trial has two possible outcomes: success or failure.
o The probability of success (P) is the same on every trial.
o The trials are independent.
Example:
• Flipping a coin 2 times and counting the number of heads is a binomial experiment.
o It has repeated trials (2 coin flips).
o Each trial has two outcomes (heads or tails).
o The probability of success (heads) is constant (0.5).
o The trials are independent.
• Notation:
o x: Number of successes.
o n: Number of trials.
o P: Probability of success on a trial.
o Q: Probability of failure on a trial (1 - P).
o n!: Factorial of n.
o b(x; n, P): Binomial probability.
o nCr: Number of combinations of n things taken r at a time.
• A binomial random variable is the number of successes x in n trials.
• Its probability distribution is called a binomial distribution.
• The binomial distribution has the following properties:
o Mean: μx = n * P
o Variance: σ²x = n * P * (1 - P)
o Standard deviation: σx = √(n * P * (1 - P))
• The binomial probability of exactly x successes is calculated using the binomial
formula:
o 𝑏(𝑥; 𝑛, 𝑃) = nCx ∗ Px ∗ (1 − P) 𝑛−𝑥 or 𝑏(𝑥; 𝑛, 𝑃) = { 𝑛! / [ 𝑥! (𝑛 − 𝑥)! ] } ∗
𝑃 𝑥 ∗ (1 − 𝑃)𝑛−𝑥
Example:
• If a die is tossed 5 times, the probability of getting exactly 2 fours is:
o n = 5, x = 2, P = 1/6 ≈ 0.167
o b(2; 5, 0.167) = 5C2 * (0.167)^2 * (0.833)^3 ≈ 0.161
• A cumulative binomial probability is the probability that the binomial random
variable falls within a specified range.
Example:
• The cumulative binomial probability of obtaining 45 or fewer heads in 100 tosses of
a coin is:
o b(x ≤ 45; 100, 0.5) = b(x = 0; 100, 0.5) + b(x = 1; 100, 0.5) + ... + b(x =
45; 100, 0.5) ≈ 0.184
VII. Poisson Distribution
• A Poisson distribution is the probability distribution that results from a Poisson
experiment.
• A Poisson experiment has the following properties:
o Outcomes are classified as successes or failures.
o The average number of successes (λ) in a specified region is known.
o The probability of success is proportional to the size of the region.
o The probability of success in an extremely small region is virtually zero.
o The region can be a length, area, volume, time period, etc.
• Notation:
o e: Approximately 2.71828 (base of the natural logarithm).
o λ: Mean number of successes in a specified region.
o x: Actual number of successes in a specified region.
o P(x; λ): Poisson probability of exactly x successes.
• A Poisson random variable is the number of successes from a Poisson experiment.
• Its probability distribution is called a Poisson distribution.
• The Poisson probability is calculated using the Poisson formula:
o 𝑃(𝑥; 𝜆) = (𝑒 − 𝜆 ) (𝜆 𝑥 ) / 𝑥!
o where x is the actual number of successes, and e ≈ 2.71828.
• The Poisson distribution has the following properties:
o Mean: λ
o Variance: λ
Example:
• If the average number of homes sold by Acme Realty is 2 per day, the probability
that exactly 3 homes will be sold tomorrow is:
o λ = 2, x = 3, e ≈ 2.71828
o P(3; 2) = (2.71828^-2) * (2^3) / 3! ≈ 0.180
• A cumulative Poisson probability is the probability that the Poisson random variable
is within a specified range.
Example:
• If the average number of lions seen on a 1-day safari is 5, the probability that
tourists will see fewer than four lions on the next safari is:
o λ = 5, x = 0, 1, 2, or 3, e ≈ 2.71828
o P(x < 3, 5) = P(0; 5) + P(1; 5) + P(2; 5) + P(3; 5) ≈ 0.2650
