Thayer, Vietnam in A Changing World
Uploaded by
Carlyle Alan ThayerThayer, Vietnam in A Changing World
Uploaded by
Carlyle Alan ThayerThayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 65 648 097 123
[email protected] Vietnam in a Changing World
Carlyle A. Thayer
August 7, 2025
We request your great insight about Vietnam and its measures to deal with the
changing world. Therefore, we would be very grateful if you could respond to this
question:
In the complex changing world today, such as US imposition of high tariffs, armed
conflicts in many regions (ASEAN, Middle East, Russia-Ukraine...), and stronger
pressure for choosing sides between the U.S. and China, what should Vietnam do?
ANSWER: Vietnam should recall the time-tested precept of Ho Chi Minh Thought: “We
must rely on our potentialities. Our diplomacy will thrive when our potentialities are
strong. Potentiality is the gong and diplomacy is its sound. Big gong makes big sound.”
Ho Chi Minh Thought also councils a pragmatic and flexible diplomatic strategy
entailing “more friends, fewer enemies; exploiting contradictions among enemies;
seizing and making use of the opportunity, and gaining partial victory before the total
one.”
In an era of complex unpredictable change Vietnam must adopt a clear strategy based
on its national interests. A strategy has three inter-related components – ends, ways
and means. A strategy is about how to plan and integrate these three components.
The ends are the ultimate objectives of strategy. What does Vietnam seek to achieve?
In the current complex geo-strategic environment Vietnam should seek maintain its
strategic autonomy by protecting its independence, sovereignty and territorial
integrity.
The ways encompass the resources or elements of national power – military,
economics, diplomacy, and information.
First and foremost, Vietnam must maintain sufficient military power to defend itself
through self-help. Second, Vietnam must develop a strong economic base to meet the
material needs of its people and to support its defence force. Third, Vietnam’s
diplomacy must reflect these internal strengths. Fourth, Vietnam must use
information to develop national unity, to communicate its intentions to other
countries, and to counter hostile propaganda.
The means include a range of domestic and international activities that operationalize
the elements of national power in a synergistic manner, such as Vietnam’s network of
2
comprehensive, strategic, and comprehensive strategic partnerships; free trade
agreements; and memberships in multilateral organisations.
As Ho Chi Minh noted in 1946, “The invariables decide the variables.” In other words,
the principles of independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity and national interest
cannot be changed, but the policies to safeguard these principles can be flexible and
adapted to each situation.
Vietnam is already well-positioned with a strategy to cope with an unpredictable
geopolitical environment characterized by armed conflict in Europe and the Middle
East and major power rivalry in the Indo-Pacific. Vietnam’s strategy includes the
modernization of the Vietnam People’s Army, “Four No’s” defence policy, and a
foreign policy of diversification and multilateralization of relations conducted by a
professional diplomatic corps.
What should Vietnam do to meet the current challenges?
First, ensure the success of the current streamlining of Vietnam’s political system to
execute policy more efficiently to develop the economy through innovation and digital
transformation so Vietnam attains the goal of “becoming a developing country with a
modern industry and high-middle income by 2030 and a developed country with high
income by 2045.”
Second, Vietnam must redouble its efforts to “build a streamlined and strong Army by
2025 and a revolutionary, regular, advanced and modern people’s army by 2030.”
Vietnam must closely evaluate the lessons of the conflict in Ukraine to learn how a
small power can resist a larger power through technological revolution.
Third, Vietnam must reinforce its efforts to promote multilateralism by pressing
ASEAN members to redouble efforts to support ASEAN-centrality and ASEAN Outlook
on the Indo-Pacific.
Within this context, Vietnam should be proactive to ensure that its network of free
trade agreements swiftly lower tariffs and non-tariff barriers. Priority should be given
to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the Comprehensive and
Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Europe-Vietnam Free Trade
Agreement, and the Eurasian Economic Union Free Trade Agreement.
In addition, Vietnam should look to develop new markets both bilaterally and through
multilateral free trade agreements especially with countries in the Middle East and
multilateral bodes such as the Gulf Cooperation Council, MECOSUR (Mercado Común
del Sur or Southern Common Market), and the BRICS.
Finally, Vietnam must develop an effective information strategy that reaches out to
policy makers and public opinion around the world that counters unilateralism,
promotes multilateral cooperation, the rule of law and upholds the UN Charter.
Vietnam must argue that it is in their interests to support Vietnam’s strategic
autonomy as an emerging middle power because Vietnam can best contribute to
international security if it is not forced to take sides.
3
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam in a Changing World,” Thayer
Consultancy Background Brief, August 6, 2025. All background briefs are posted on
Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type,
UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.