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PDF Assignemnt2

The document outlines the SEIR model to describe the impact of quarantine on individuals infected with a disease, detailing the dynamics of susceptible, exposed, symptomatic, asymptomatic, recovered, and death populations through differential equations. It highlights the effects of different quarantine durations (4 days vs. 2 or 3 days) on the isolation of symptomatic individuals and the potential for further transmission. The model incorporates parameters such as incubation and infectious periods, case fatality rate, and basic reproduction number to simulate the epidemic's progression.

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5 views3 pages

PDF Assignemnt2

The document outlines the SEIR model to describe the impact of quarantine on individuals infected with a disease, detailing the dynamics of susceptible, exposed, symptomatic, asymptomatic, recovered, and death populations through differential equations. It highlights the effects of different quarantine durations (4 days vs. 2 or 3 days) on the isolation of symptomatic individuals and the potential for further transmission. The model incorporates parameters such as incubation and infectious periods, case fatality rate, and basic reproduction number to simulate the epidemic's progression.

Uploaded by

chintujajor24
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Assignment 2

To describe how quarantine affects individuals infected with a


disease using the SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-
Recovered) model, we can use a system of differential equations. In
this model, we consider two categories of infectious individuals:
those showing symptoms and those who are asymptomatic while in
the incubation period. Let's start by outlining the equations for the
SEIR model.

With the following information in hand we can form differential


equations

• 1.An incubation period, signi ed as σ, lasts an average of 3


days.
• 2.The infectious phase, denoted as γ, typically lasts around 3
days.
• 3.There is a 2% case fatality rate (CFR), with fatalities
occurring solely during symptomatic infection.
• 4.Individuals are half as infectious during the incubation period
as they are when showing symptoms.
• 5.The basic reproduction number, R₀, is set at 2.

Let:

• S(t) be the number of susceptible individuals.


• E(t) be the number of exposed (infected but not yet infectious)
individuals.
• Is(t) be the number of symptomatic infectious individuals.
• Ia(t) be the number of asymptomatic infectious individuals.
• R(t) be the number of recovered individuals.
• D(t) be the number of deaths.
fi
ASSIGNMENT 2

Now, we can rewrite the differential equations using these new


variable names:

Susceptible Population:

ds/dt=−β⋅S⋅(Is+0.5⋅Ia)/N

Exposed Population:

dE/dt=β⋅S⋅(Is+0.5⋅Ia)/N−σ⋅E

Symptomatic Infectious Population:

dIs/d =σ⋅E−γ⋅Is−δ⋅Is

Asymptomatic Infectious Population:

dIa/d =0.5⋅σ⋅E−γ⋅Ia

Recovered Population:

dR/dt=γ⋅(Is+Ia)Death Population:dD/d =δ⋅Is

We can solve these differential equations numerically using


appropriate software or libraries (e.g., Python's SciPy or MATLAB)
to simulate the epidemic.

Differences between 4 day quarantine and 2 or 3 days:

4 days:
• Symptomatic individuals are isolated starting from the 4th day
after showing symptoms.
t​
t​
t​
ASSIGNMENT 2

• During the initial 4 days, infected individuals (both symptomatic


and asymptomatic) continue to interact with the general
population.
2 or 3 days
• Symptomatic individuals are isolated much earlier, either on
the 2nd or 3rd day after showing symptoms.
• This means that individuals who exhibit symptoms are quickly
removed from the general population to prevent further
transmission.

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