I3330
Gestion de Projets Informatiques
ECTS CM TD TP Total
3 10 11 15 36
L3 Informatique (Français)
Rani MAKKE, PhD., Eng.
[email protected]Mob: 76-750.254
Syllabus
Chapter 1: Fundamentals of Project management – Overview
Chapter 2: Fundamentals of Project management: The Role of the Project Manager
Chapter 3: Planning the Project
Chapter 4: Developing a Mission, Vision, Goals, and Objectives for the Project
Chapter 5: Creating the Project Risk Plan
Chapter 6: Using the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) to Plan a Project
Chapters 7 & 8: Scheduling Project Work
Chapter 9: Project Control& Evaluation
Chapter 10: Change Control Process
Chapter 11: Project Control Using Earned Value Analysis
Chapter 5:
Creating the Project Risk Plan
4 Introduction
Risk management is the systematic process of identifying, analyzing, and
responding to project risk.
Without this plan, you are forced to manage reactively when things go
wrong—easily the most expensive approach.
Systematic is a key word here, as many project managers attempt to deal with
risks on an informal basis with little or no prior planning. Any project manager who
operates in this manner is inviting failure, if not disaster.
5 Defining Project Risks
Project risk management begins early in the life cycle.
A clear understanding of the risks that face the project must be
established.
The sources of project risk are almost limitless, emphasizing the need for a
well-thought-out, detailed plan.
Typical examples include the loss of a key team member, weather
emergencies, technical failures, and poor suppliers.
6 Defining Project Risks
Many project managers wait too long to assess risk factors and delay the
risk plan because they assume they don’t know enough yet, that there are
too many unknowns.
During the initiation phase of the project life cycle, an initial high-level
assessment ought to be conducted.
7 Defining Project Risks
You and your team members should take a strategic approach to “what
can go wrong” and begin arranging the foundation for the detailed plan to
follow.
Without this foundation, projects often experience the negative impact of risks
that become reality.
This is reactive behavior, and you must live in the proactive world to be
successful as a project manager.
8 Risk Management: PMBOK Guide
Description
Project risk management is “the process of conducting risk management
planning, identification, analysis, response planning, and monitoring and
control on a project.”
Monitoring
and Control Planning
on a project.
Response
Identification
planning
Analysis
9 The Six-Step Process
The Six-Step process is a common and practical approach to establishingر
the project risk plan.
This process should not be created in a vacuum but typically involves a great
deal of research and collaboration with the project team.
Step 1: Make a List
Steps 2 & 3: Determine the Probability of Risk Occurrence and Negative
Impact
Step 4: Prevent or Mitigate the Risk
Step 5: Consider Contingencies
Step 6: Establish the Trigger Point
10 Step 1: Make a List
Making a list of potential risks to the project should not be an analysis but a
formal brainstorming session, when all ideas are captured.
It is important that the entire team get involved in identifying threats and
highlighting what can go wrong.
This initial step of the process must be collaborative and involve the
individuals who are expert at that portion of the project work for which they
are responsible.
Some project managers make the mistake of trying to accomplish this on their own to allow
team members to complete other tasks. This is shortsighted and a bad idea.
11 Steps 2 & 3: Determine the Probability of
Risk Occurrence and Negative Impact
These two steps allow you to prioritize all identified threats to the project
and help you determine how much time, effort, staff, and money should be
devoted to preventing or mitigating each.
Again, this must be accomplished not in a vacuum but with full input from
team members and subject matter experts (SMEs).
12 Steps 2 & 3: Determine the Probability of
Risk Occurrence and Negative Impact
How probable is it that each risk will become a reality?
If the risk becomes a reality, how badly will it damage the project?
It is often sufficient to use a High-Medium-Low (HML) scale and apply it to
the list of brainstormed risks.
All aspects of the project should be considered when rating the negative
impact of any risk. If the risk becomes reality, how will it affect the budget,
schedule, resource utilization, scope of work, and so on.
Given the assessment of risks “A” through “D” in
the table, it is clear that you should focus most of
your efforts mitigating risk “D” and that very little
attention should be paid to risk C.
Remember that you could be wrong. Just
because you label a risk Low probability and
Low impact does not guarantee that it will be, so
leave it on your radar screen.
13 Steps 2 & 3: Determine the Probability of
Risk Occurrence and Negative Impact
Or a simple number-based scale can be applied.
As you rate probability and impact, you assign a value to each risk.
The probability scale can be based on a range of 1 through 10, with 1
representing unlikely and 10 being very likely. Negative impact can be
represented by the same scale or in budgetary impact:
14 Step 4: Prevent or Mitigate the Risk
Some risks can be prevented; others can only be mitigated.
Earthquakes or the retirement of an important stakeholder, for instance, cannot
be prevented.
If a risk has been identified and you have the ability to prevent its
occurrence, do so.
Proactivity is the project manager’s best friend.
Kill the risk before it has a chance to grow and flourish, and you won’t have to
deal with it again.
Mitigate: make (something bad) less severe, serious, or painful.
15 Step 5: Consider Contingencies
Contingencies represent the specific actions that will be taken if the risk
occurs.
Here, you answer the question “If the risk becomes reality, what will we do”?
Contingencies are directly linked to the prioritization factors introduced in
steps 2 and 3.
If the risk is a high priority (high probability, high negative impact) you will
want to identify multiple contingencies. If the risk falls in the middle range of
the prioritization scale, you should establish at least one contingency. Those
risks that fall in the lower level should not require much attention; be careful
of the very low probability, very high impact risk.
Preventive measures are those steps
taken before the risk becomes reality.
16 Step 6: Establish the Trigger Point
The trigger point is often the most important element of the project risk plan.
There is a direct relationship between the trigger point and the
contingencies.
The trigger point is the point at which the risk becomes enough of a reality
that the project manager needs to trigger the contingency.
17 Step 6: Establish the Trigger Point
It is a judgment call meant to maximize the value of the predetermined
contingency by implementing it at the optimal time.
Trigger too soon and you will probably spend time, effort, or money for no
good reason.
Trigger too late and you may end up experiencing the full impact of the
occurrence, with little value added by implementing the contingency.
If a usually reliable supplier has experienced labor issues and has shut down because of a
strike, perhaps your contingency plan has identified suppliers B and C as alternatives.
Each has widgets in stock and has quoted a lead time of two calendar weeks for prep and
delivery. If the required delivery date is February 15, your trigger should include the two-week
lead time plus a few days’ buffer. An appropriate trigger point here would be January 31. If
the contingency affects a task or tasks on the critical path (see Chapter 7), additional buffer
days should be considered.
18 Establishing Reserves
Establishing reserves enables you to leverage the plan to its fullest potential.
The best-laid plans are helpless without the time and/or budget to allow for
effective implementation.
As a result, you need to establish contingency and management reserves.
19 Contingency Reserves
Contingency reserves are designated amounts of time and/or budget to
account for risks to the project that have been identified and actively
accepted.
They are created to cover known risks to the project.
Once the process is complete, you should estimate the required reserves to
cover the risks that have been identified and accepted.
For example, if your project team has identified the loss of a key team member to retirement as a
high-priority risk (probability and impact), contingency actions will require the hiring of a
replacement from outside the organization. The cost and schedule impact of the hiring process
and team member assimilation must be estimated and added to the contingency reserve.
20 Management reserves
Management reserves are designated amounts of time and/ or budget
included in your plan to account for risks to the project that cannot be
predicted.
Management reserves are created to cover unknown risks to the project.
For example, if the current project involves a high percentage of research and development and
an analysis of past similar projects using actuals (historical data) indicates an average budgetary
overrun of 10 percent, this 10 percent is not attributed to any particular risk event. However, it should
trigger the need for a 10 percent increase to the overall project budget as a management reserve.
21 Managing Multi-project Risks
Many, if not most, project managers find themselves leading more than
one project.
In the multi-project world, many projects overlap or experience direct
dependencies with other projects.
First, you must focus on the individual project and the associated risks for
each.
Then, you must assess your entire portfolio and determine the nature of the
relationship of these projects.
Your portfolio is the sum of all projects under your purview. The relationship
among these projects may vary widely.
22 Managing Multi-project Risks
Program typically involves multiple projects working toward the completion
of a single deliverable.
These projects must all be properly integrated toward this end.
In the portfolio environment, you must identify where the projects coincide
or overlap with regard to any project work.
You then determine what might go wrong in these areas where the
projects “touch.”
23 Coordination Points
In either case, the areas where the projects touch are called coordination
points.
You need to identify these points, after which a standard multi-project risk plan
can be created.
In reality, you focus on creating a risk plan for each project individually to
manage intra-project risks
and then turn your attention to the coordination points and perform the
same process to manage inter-project risks.
The portfolio or program risk plan is meant to supplement and enhance the
individual risk plan in the multi-project environment.
24 Risk Matrix
Once the threats have been plotted onto the risk matrix, an H-M-L prioritization can be applied where
the highest priority risks are positioned toward the upper right corner and lower priority ones toward the
lower left. You can then color code individual risks as they apply to each project. In the fog of the
portfolio or program management world, this can prove to be a very effective approach.
25 Risk Register
The risk register is a useful tool in managing actions taken regarding
accepted risks to the project.
The risk register is the last ingredient of the project risk plan. It is a living,
breathing dynamic tool that can help you to track risk status as your project
matures through the life cycle.
The risk register also helps you identify ownership of contingency
implementation, outcomes of actions taken, and active and inactive risks.
26 Conclusion
If a thorough risk analysis is not developed:
you and your team will live in the reactive world, putting out fires throughout the
project life cycle.
This is easily the most expensive way to operate in terms of time, effort, and
money, and it will jeopardize the success of any project.
You must invest yourself early by adding this crucial element to your overall
project plan.
