Lecture Notes Stochastic Calculus For Finance (2021-22)
Lecture Notes Stochastic Calculus For Finance (2021-22)
Umesh Kumar
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Stochastic Calculus Umesh Kumar
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Chapter 1
Introduction to Probability
Theory
1.1 Probability Space
The corresponding probabilities are P (A) = 3/4, P (B) = 1/4, P (C) = 1/2.
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Example 1.1.4 (Throwing two dice ). The sample space for rolling two dice is Ω =
{(i, j) : i, j ∈ {1, . . . , 6}}. An example of an event in this experiment is that the sum
of numbers on two dice is 5, that is, A = {(1, 4), (2, 3), (3, 2), (4, 1)}. One can assign
the probability as P (A) = 4/36 = 1/9.
In each of the examples above, the sample space is nite. Every subset of the
sample space is an event and probability is assigned by
|A|
A ⊂ Ω, P (A) = ,
|Ω|
where |A| denotes the cardinality of A, i.e., the number of elements in A. We have
also assumed here that all the outcomes are equally likely to happen. The latter
assumption of equally likely outcomes can be easily removed as we only want that
the probability is assigned in a "consistent" way to all events and will be discussed
in a later example. In an innite set not every subset can be assigned a probability
in a consistent way. In other words, not every subset of an innite sample space is
an event.
Example 1.1.5. Suppose we draw randomly a number from [0, 1]. The sample space
in this case is given by Ω = [0, 1]. An event A is identied with the event that the
number that we draw happens to be in the set A. For A = [a, b], 0 < a < b < 1, one
can assign the probability as P ([a, b]) = b − a, that is, the length of the interval [a, b].
The question now is whether every subset of [0, 1] has a "length"? You may be aware
of non-measurable subsets of [0, 1], so not every subset of [0, 1] can be regarded as
an event.
Remark 1.1.6. Do you know about Vitali sets? Do you know about Banach-Tarski
paradox? If not, may be you can try to nd out.
Example 1.1.7 (Share Price tomorrow ). Suppose we want to predict the price of
a share tomorrow. The sample space is Ω = [0, ∞). An example of an event is
that the share price will be larger than or equal to 100 rupees tomorrow, that is,
A = [100, ∞). Another event can be that the share price will lie between 100 rupees
and 400 rupees, that is B = [100, 400]. To assign probability, one needs to know how
share prices are modelled.
In probability theory, we model a random experiment using a probability space.
Kolmogorov dened a probability space by a triple (Ω, F, P ), where the event space
F is a sigma algebra and P is a probability measure. We now discuss these in detail.
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∞
(3) if A1 , A2 , · · · ∈ F , then An ∈ F .
[
n=1
Remark 1.1.9. By (1) and (2), it is obvious that Ω ∈ F . Some authors take Ω ∈ F
instead of (1) in the denition of a σ -algebra. If A, B ∈ F , then it easily follws that
A ∪ B ∈ F.
Remark 1.1.11. A σ-algebra is closed under countable set operations. For example,
∞
if A1 , A2 , · · · ∈ F , then An ∈ F because by De Morgan's laws we have
\
n=1
∞ ∞
!c
\ [
An = Acn .
n=1 n=1
Proof. Exercise
Denition 1.1.13 (generated σ-algebra). Let C be a class of subsets of Ω. The
σ -algebra generated by C , denoted by σ(C), is the smallest σ -algebra on Ω containing
C.
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The above example is a particular case of the following more general example.
Example 1.1.21 (Discrete Probability space). Let Ω be a nite or countable
set. We take F = P(Ω), the power set of Ω. We assign the probability to each
outcome by
P ({ω}) = pω ,
where
and
X
pω > 0, pω = 1.
ω∈Ω
We can dene a probability measure on F by
for all A ∈ F.
X
P (A) = pω ,
ω∈A
Proof. Exercise.
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1. Do all the exercises of Section 1.1 and prove all the theorems left as exercises.
2. Let F be a σ -algebra on Ω and let A ⊆ Ω. Dene
H := {B ∩ A : B ∈ F}.
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Then, 1−1
A (B) ∈ B if and only if A ∈ B .
Example 1.2.3 (Discrete Probability space ). Let Ω be a nite or countable set and
σ -algebra F be the power set on Ω. Then every function X : Ω → R is a random
variable. (Prove it yourself.)
Denition 1.2.4. Let X be a random variable on a probability space (Ω, F, P ).
The distribution measure or law of X is the probability measure µX : B → R dened
by
µX (B) := P (X ∈ B) = P (X −1 (B)).
Note that two random variables can have the same distribution.
Denition 1.2.6 (CDF). Let X be a random variable on a probability space
(Ω, F, P ). The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of X is the function FX : R →
[0, 1] dened by
FX (x) := P (X 6 x).
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Knowing the CDF of a random variable is same as knowing its distribution mea-
sure. This is because, if X has distribution measure µX , then the CDF of X is
FX (x) = µX (−∞, x]. Conversely, if we know the CDF FX of X , the distribution
can be computed as:
µX (x, y] = FX (y) − FX (x) for x < y.
For a 6 b, we have
1 1
µX [a, b] = lim µX a − , b = FX (b) − lim FX a − .
n→∞ n n→∞ n
Remark 1.2.9. PDF may not exist for every random variable. Even if it exists, it
may not be unique.
It follows that if FX is continuously dierentiable (except possibly at nitely
many points), then the density f exists and we have
dFX (x)
= f (x),
dx
at all points where FX is continuously dierentiable and f may be dened arbitrary
at other points.
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Exercise 1.2.13. Learn more about the normal distribution. In particular, recall
about the probability distribution N (µ, σ 2 ) and its properties that you may have
learnt in your undergraduate studies.
2. Consider a measurable space (Ω, F), and a family of sets C such that σ(C) =
B(R). Prove that if X is any real valued function on Ω such that
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4. Suppose that X, Y are random variables dened on a measurable space (Ω, F),
and λ is a real number. Prove that X +Y , XY and λX are all random variables.
5. A function f : R → R is called Borel-measurable if
f −1 (B) ∈ B for all B ∈ B,
where B denotes the Borel-σ -algebra on R. Prove that if f : R → R is contin-
uous, then f is Borel-measurable.
6. Let (Ω, F, P ) be a probability space, X : Ω → R be a random variable and
f : R → R be Borel-measurable. Prove that f (X) (that is, f ◦ X ) is a random
variable.
7. In your undergraduate studies, you may have learnt about discrete and con-
tinuous random variables. Recall about probability mass function (PMF) of a
discrete random variable. Learn about the following distributions, write their
PMF or PDF, and nd their CDF:
(a) Discrete uniform on {x1 , . . . , xn };
(b) Bernoulli distribution;
(c) Binomial ditribution;
(d) Poisson distribution;
(e) Continuous uniform distribution on [a, b];
(f) Normal Distribution;
(g) Exponential distribution;
(h) Gamma distribution.
8. Do all the exercises of Section 1.2 and prove all the theorems left as exercises.
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The P -integral can be dened using the following three steps as in Lesebgue integral:
1. (First Step) We rst dene the P -integral for a simple random variable. A
simple random variable is a function X : Ω → R+ of the form
n
αk 1Ak (ω),
X
X(ω) =
k=1
where αk ∈ R+ (note that R+ := [0, ∞]) and Ak ∈ F are pairwise disjoint for
k = 1, . . . , n. For such X , we dene the P -integral as
Z n
X
X(ω) dP (ω) := αk P (Ak ).
Ω k=0
3. (Third Step) In the nal step, we dene P -integral for any random variable
X : Ω → R. We rst dene:
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Proof. Exercise.
Theorem 1.3.3. Let X be a random variable on a probability space (Ω, F, P ) and
let g be a Borel-measurable function on R. Then,
Z
E[|g(X)|] = |g(x)| dµX (x),
R
and if this quantity is nite, then
Z
E[g(X)] = g(x) dµX (x).
R
Theorem 1.3.4. Let X be a random variable on a probability space (Ω, F, P ) and
let g be a Borel-measurable function on R. Suppose that X has a density f . Then
Z ∞
E[|g(X)|] = |g(x)|f (x) dx,
−∞
In particular, we have Z ∞
E[X] = xf (x) dx,
−∞
provided that Z ∞
E[|X|] = |x|f (x) dx < ∞.
−∞
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Remark 1.3.5. By L1 (Ω, P ) we denote the set of all P -integrable random variables,
that is,
L1 (Ω, P ) := {X : Ω → R : E[|X|] < ∞}.
In general, we dene for 1 6 p < ∞,
Lp (Ω, P ) := {X : Ω → R : E[|X|p ] < ∞}.
From Jensen's inequality, it follows that
L2 (Ω, P ) ⊂ L1 (Ω, P ).
Denition 1.3.6 (Variance of a random variable.). Let X : Ω → R be a random
variable and E[|X|2 ] < ∞. We dene variance of X , denoted as V ar[X], by
Z
2
V ar[X] := E[(X − µ) ] = (X(ω) − µ)2 dP (ω),
Ω
where µ := E[X].
Example 1.3.7. If X follows standard normal distribution of Example 1.2.11, then
E[X] = 0 and V ar[X] = 1.
1. Do all the exercises of Section 1.3 and prove all the theorems left as exercises.
2. Let P be the probability measure with density
f: R → [0, ∞), f (x) = cxα 1[0,3] (x)
for some parameter α > 1 and a constant c > 0.
(a) Determine the constant c such that f is the density of a probability mea-
sure P for each α > 1.
(b) Dene a function g : R → R by
if x ∈ [0, 1),
7,
if x ∈ [1, 2),
3,
g(x) =
4, if x ∈ [2, 3],
else.
0,
3. Let f : R → R be dened by
1 1 x−µ 2
f (x) = √ e− 2 ( σ ) ,
2π σ
where µ ∈ R and σ > 0. Let X be a random variable with probability density
function f . We say that X is normally distributed with parameters µ (called
mean) and σ 2 (called variance) and write X ∼ N (µ, σ 2 ).
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t ∈ R.
1 2 t2
MX (t) = eµt+ 2 σ ,
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In your undergraduate studies you may have learnt about independence of events
and of random variables. In this section we study these concepts with more formal
measure theoretic approach.
1.4.1 Independence
(b) two random variables X and Y are independent if σ(X) and σ(Y ) are indepen-
dent;
(c) X is independent of the σ -algebra G if σ(X) and G are independent.
From the denition of independence of two random variables, it easily follows
that X and Y are independent if and only if
P (X ∈ B1 , Y ∈ B2 ) = P (X ∈ B1 )P (X ∈ B2 ) for all B1 , B2 ∈ B.
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We can extend this denition to more than two σ -algebras or more than two
random variables also. Further, a sequence G1 , G2 , . . . of sub-σ -algebras of F is inde-
pendent if whenever Ai ∈ Gi (i ∈ N) and i1 , . . . , in are distinct, then
n
Y
P (Ai1 ∩ · · · ∩ Ain ) = P (Aik ).
k=1
It is clear from this denition that events A1 , A2 , . . . are independent if and only
if the random variables 1A1 , 1A2 , . . . are independent. (Prove it!)
It also follows easily that two events A and B are independent if and only if
P (A ∩ B) = P (A) · P (B).
Exercise 1.4.8. What does independence of three events A, B, C of Ω mean in terms
of probability?
Theorem 1.4.9. Let X and Y be independent random variables, and let f and g
be Borel-measurable functions on R. Then f (X) and g(Y ) are independent random
variables.
Proof. Exercise.
Let X and Y be random variables. The pair of random variables (X, Y ) takes values
in the plane R2 , that is it is a measurable map
(X, Y ) : Ω → R2 .
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Thus, we have
Z a Z b
FX,Y (a, b) = fX,Y (x, y) dy dx, a, b ∈ R .
−∞ −∞
If the joint density fX,Y exists, then the marginal densities exist and are given by
Z ∞ Z ∞
fX (x) := fX,Y (x, y) dy and fY (y) := fX,Y (x, y) dx.
−∞ −∞
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From the Statement (f) of Theorem 1.4.11, it is clear that if X and Y are indepen-
dent, then Cov(X, Y ) = 0 but the converse may not be true.
Exercise 1.4.13. Give an example of random variables X and Y which satisfy
(f) of Theorem 1.4.11 holds) but X and Y are not
Cov(X, Y ) = 0 (equivalently,
independent.
Before dening conditional expectation, we note the following very important equiv-
alent idea of almost everywhere (a.e.) concept of measure theory for probability
theory.
Denition 1.4.14. We say that a property holds P -a.s. (that is, P almost surely)
if it is true for all ω in a set of probability 1. For example, we say that X = Y ,
P -a.s., if
P (X = Y ) = P {ω : X(ω) = Y (ω)} = 1.
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Proof. Exercise
Remark 1.4.19. Note that if G = {ϕ, Ω}, then E[X|G] = E[X].
Lemma 1.4.20 (Independence Lemma). If X is G -measurable and Y is inde-
pendent of G , then
E[f (X, Y )|G] = g(X),
where g(x) := E[f (x, Y )].
If (X, Y ) has a joint density and X is P -integrable, then E[X|Y ] can be computed
using the following theorem.
Theorem 1.4.21. Let X and Y be random variables with joint density function
f : R2 → R+ .
Assume that h : R → R is a measurable function such that E[|h(X)|] <
∞. Dene the
function g : R → R by
if fY (y) > 0,
1
R∞
g(y) := fY (y) −∞ h(x)f (x, y) dx,
0, else.
where fY denotes the marginal density of Y . Then it follows that
E[h(X)|Y ] = g(Y ).
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tation
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Conclude that P = R.
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Chapter 2
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Let (W (t) : t > 0) be a Brownian motion. The following properties easily follow
from the denition:
(1) E[W (t) − W (s)] = 0 and E[|W (t) − W (s)|2 ] = t − s.
(2) W (t) ∼ N (0, t) for each t > 0.
(3) W (t) − W (s) ≡ W (t − s) in Law.
x2
(4) P (a < W (t) < b) = e− 2t dx.
Rb
√1
2π σ a
√
(5) P (W (t) < b) = N (b/ t) where N denotes CDF of standard normal.
(6) E[eαW (t) ] = e 2 α t .
1 2
(7) E[(W (b) − W (a))(W (d) − W (c))] = 0 for any 0 6 a < b < c < d.
(8) E[W (s)W (t)] = min{s, t} for any s, t > 0
(9) The sample paths of the standard Brownian motion are nowhere dierentiable
functions, P -a.s. (Proof not required).
Exercise 2.1.4. Prove properties (1)-(8) given above.
Example 2.1.5. Let W = (W (t) : t > 0) be a Brownian motion. Then the process
W = (W (t) : t > 0) is also Brownian motion in each of the following cases:
f f
(a) W
f (t) := −W (t);
(c) W
f (t) := W (t + a) − W (a) where a > 0 is a xed constant.
Proof. Exercise.
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if k is odd;
(
k 0
E[X ] = k!
2k/2 (k/2)!
σk if k is even.
(b) Using part (a) or otherwise, prove that a Brownian motion (W (t) : t > 0)
satises
E[(W (t) − W (s))3 ] = 0 and E[(W (t) − W (s))4 ] = 3(t − s)2 .
f (t) := W (T ) − W (T − t),
W t ∈ [0, T ],
is a Brownian motion.
5. Let (W (t) : t > 0) be a Brownian motion. Prove that the following processes
f (t) : t > 0) are Brownian motion
(W
(a) W
f (t) = √1 W (ct);
c
(b) W
f (t) = tW (1/t) for t > 0 and W
f (t) = 0 for t = 0.
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Theorem 2.2.1. Let W be a Brownian motion. Then [W, W ](T ) = T for all T >0
almost surely.
Proof. Let T > 0 and Π == {t0 , t1 , . . . , tn } be a partition of [0, T ]. Dene
n−1
X
QΠ = |W (ti+1 ) − W (ti )|2 .
i=0
We show that E[QΠ ] = T and V ar[QΠ ] → 0 which will imply that QΠ → T in the
mean-square sense as kΠk → 0. More specically, it will follow that
!2
n−1
X
lim E[|QΠ − T |2 ] = lim E |W (ti+1 ) − W (ti )|2 − T = 0.
kΠk→0 kΠk→0
i=0
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We have
"n−1 #
X
E[QΠ ] = E |W (ti+1 ) − W (ti )|2
i=0
n−1
X h i
= E |W (ti+1 ) − W (ti )|2
i=0
n−1
X
= (ti+1 − ti ) = T.
i=0
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2.3 Martingales
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Exercise 2.3.7. Does M (t) = W 2 (t) dene a martingale w.r.t. {F W (t)}t>0 ? What
about M (t) = W 2 (t) − t?
Remark 2.3.8. From the above example, it is clear that a Brownian Motion is a
martingale with respect to its natural (i.e. generated) ltration.
Example 2.3.9. From Exercise 5 of Problems 2.1, the following processes (M (t) :
t > 0) where
PROBLEMS-2.2 : Martingales
1. Let (F(t))t∈I be a ltration and let X be a random variable satisfying E[|X|] <
∞. If we dene
M (t) = E[X|F(t)], t ∈ I,
then prove that M = (M (t) : t ∈ I) is a martingale.
2. Let (M (t) : t ∈ I) be an (F(t))t∈I -martingale, such that E[|M (t)|2 ] < ∞.
Show that, for all s < t,
(a) E[(M (t) − M (s))2 |F(s)] = E[(M (t))2 |F(s)] − M 2 (s);
(b) E[(M (t) − M (s))2 ] = E[(M (t))2 ] − E[(M (s))2 ]; (Hint: use the tower
property)
(c) The function t 7→ E[(M (t))2 ] is increasing.
3. Check whether the following stochastic processes (M (t) : t > 0) are martingales
with respect to the generated ltration {F W (t)}t>0 where
(a) M (t) = W 3 (t) − 3tW (t);
(b) M (t) = t2 W (t) − 2 0t sW (s) ds;
R
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Chapter 3
Stochastic Calculus
3.1 Itô Integral
where si ∈ [ti , ti+1 ]. The limit is independent of the choice of partitions and is also
independent of the values si . The Riemann-Stieltjes integral of f with respect to a
function g is dened by
Z T n−1
X
f (t) dg(t) := lim f (si )(g(ti+1 ) − g(ti )),
0 kΠk→0
i=0
where si ∈ [ti , ti+1 ]. The limit is independent of the choice of partitions and is
also independent of the values si . It is well-known that if the Riemann-Stieltjes
integral 0T f (t) dg(t) exists for all continuous functions f , then g must be of bounded
R
variation. Since the trajectories of a Brownian motion are of innite variation almost
surely, we cannot dene the stochastic integral 0T ∆(t) dW (t) as Riemann-Stieltjes
R
integral pathwise.
Example 3.1.1. Consider W (t) dW (t). For a partition Π = {t0 , t1 , . . . , tn } of
RT
0
[0, T ], we can dene the upper Riemann-Stieltjes sum
n−1
X
U (W, Π) := W (ti+1 )(W (ti+1 ) − W (ti )),
i=0
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Then,
n−1
X
U (W, Π) − L(W, Π) = (W (ti+1 ) − W (ti ))2 ,
i=0
This shows that we cannot dene 0 W (t) dW (t) as Riemann-Stieltjes integral path-
RT
and ∆(T ) = ∆(tn−1 ), where 0 = t0 < t1 < · · · < tn = T , such that ∆(tk ) are
F(tk )-measurable and satisfy E[|∆(tk )|2 ] < ∞. Such a process ∆ will be called a
simple process. We can write it as
n−1
1[tk ,tk+1 ) (t)∆(tk ) + 1{T } (t)∆(tn−1 ).
X
∆(t) =
k=0
For a xed T, we will write I(∆) = ∆(t) dW (t). Clearly, I(∆) is a random
RT
0
variable.
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Theorem 3.1.2 (Properties of Itô Integral for simple processes). For a simple pro-
cess ∆, we have
(a) E[I(∆)] = E ∆(t) dW (t) = 0;
hR i
T
0
2
(b) (Itô Isometry).
hR i
T T
E[|I(∆)|2 ] = E 0 ∆2 (t) dt
R
=E 0 ∆(t) dW (t)
Proof. In Class.
Remark 3.1.3. If ∆(t) is deterministic (i.e. non-random), then it is easy to see that
Z T
2
I(∆) ∼ N 0, ∆ (t) dt .
0
We now assume that (∆(t) : t ∈ [0, T ]) is an adapted stochastic process and satises
Z T
k∆k := E 2
∆ (t) dt < ∞. (3.1.1)
0
For such ∆, we can nd a sequence (∆n ) of simple stochastic processes such that
∆n → ∆ as n → ∞. Indeed, we have
lim k∆n − ∆k → 0.
n→∞
where the limit is in the mean square sense. More precisely, there exists a square
integrable random variable I(∆) such that
lim E |I(∆n ) − I(∆)|2 = 0.
n→∞
It can be proved that the denition does not depend on the approximating sequence
∆n .
Theorem 3.1.4 (Properties of Itô Integral). For any adapted process ∆ which sat-
ises (3.1.1), we have
(a) E[I(∆)] = E ∆(t) dW (t) = 0;
hR i
T
0
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In the following results, given a general process ∆, we will use the notation
Z t
I(t) := ∆(s) dW (s).
0
Theorem 3.1.5 (Properties of Itô Integral Process). The following properties are
satised:
(a) The Itô integral process (I(t) : t ∈ [0, T ]) has continuous trajectories, that is, the
map t 7→ I(t)(ω) is continuous pathwise;
(b) I(t) is F(t)-measurable for each t ∈ [0, T ], that is (I(t) : t ∈ [0, T ]) is an adapted
process;
(c) The Itô integral process (I(t) : t ∈ [0, T ]) is a martingale;
(d) The quadratic variation accumulated upto time t of the Itô integral process (I(t) :
t ∈ [0, T ]) is
Z t
[I, I](t) = ∆2 (s) ds;
0
(e) E[I(t)] = 0;
(f) Itô Isometry: Z t
2 2
E[I(t) ] = E ∆ (t) dt .
0
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R t Note that dI(t) = ∆(t) dW (t) is a notation in dierential form to mean I(t) =
0 ∆(s) dW (s). Indeed, dI(t) = ∆(t) dW (t) actually means
Z t
I(t) = I(0) + ∆(s) dW (s),
0
where I(0) is an initial condition. For, I(t) = ∆(s) dW (s), we have I(0) = 0.
Rt
0
Example 3.1.7. Let us now compute the Itô integral 0T W (t) dW (t). Let Π =
R
Note the occurrence of an extra term in the Itô integral in above example.
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Stochastic Calculus Umesh Kumar
1. Show that
n−1
1 1
(a) lim
X
W (ti+1 )(W (ti+1 ) − W (ti )) = W 2 (T ) + T ;
kΠk→0 2 2
i=0
n−1
X W (ti+1 ) + W (ti ) 1
(b) lim (W (ti+1 ) − W (ti )) = W 2 (T ).
kΠk→0 2 2
i=0
Give a reason why (Φ(t) : t ∈ [0, 4]) is an adapted stochastic process. Write
the stochastic integral Z 4
Φ(t) dW (t)
0
as the sum of three random variables. Calculate the mean and variance of the
stochastic integral Z 4
Φ(t) dW (t).
0
by computing the Itô integral from the denition. (The integral on the R.H.S.
can be understood as Riemann integral pathwise.)
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Stochastic Calculus Umesh Kumar
Remark 3.2.4. The equation (3.2.1) in Theorem 3.2.1 can be written in dierential
form as follows:
1
df (W (t)) = f 0 (W (t)) dW (t) + f 00 (W (t)) dt. (3.2.2)
2
Theorem 3.2.5 (Itô Formula). Let f (t, x) be twice dierentiable in x and once
dierentiable in t and (W (t) : t > 0) be a Brownian Motion. Then for each t > 0,
Z t Z t
1 t
Z
f (t, W (t)) = f (0, 0)+ fs (s, W (s)) ds+ fx (s, W (s)) dW (s)+ fxx (s, W (s)) ds.
0 0 2 0
(3.2.3)
Remark 3.2.6. In dierential form, we can write (3.2.3) as
1
df (t, W (t)) = ft (t, W (t)) dt + fx (t, W (t)) dW (t) + fxx (t, W (t)) dt.
2
Example 3.2.7. In Black-Scholes theory, a stock price is1 assumed to follow Geo-
metric Brownian Motion (G.B.M.) given by S(t) = S0 e(µ− 2 σ . Then by Itô
2 )t+σW (t)
formula, we obtain
dS(t) = µS(t) dt + σS(t) dW (t).
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Stochastic Calculus Umesh Kumar
Denition 3.2.8. Let (W (t) : t > 0) be a Brownian motion and let (F(t))t>0 , be
an associated ltration. An Itô process (X(t) : t > 0) is a stochastic process of the
form Z t Z t
X(t) = X(0) + ∆(s) dW (s) + Θ(s) ds,
0 0
where X(0) is non-random and ∆ and Θ are adapted stochastic processes.
Remark 3.2.9. The appropriate conditions are assumed so that the integrals in the
denition of Itô process exist. In dierential notation, an Itô process is of the form
dX(t) = ∆(t) dW (t) + Θ(t) dt.
Denition 3.2.11. Let (Γ(t) : t > 0) be an adapted process. We dene the integral
with respect to an Ito process (X(t) : t > 0) by
Z t Z t Z t
Γ(s) dX(s) = Γ(s)∆(s) dW (s) + Γ(s)Θ(s) ds.
0 0 0
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Stochastic Calculus Umesh Kumar
for α > 0. Using Itô's Lemma, write down the SDE for Z(t) = eαt Y (t). Using
this, nd the solution of Ornstein Uhlenbeck process.
6. Consider the Bessel process which satises
2δ − 1
dR(t) = dt + dW (t),
R(t)
39
Chapter 4
Financial Mathematics
4.1 Black-Scholes Model
We assume the existence of a risk-free and risky asset in the nancial market. By
a risk-free asset we mean a Bond or Money Market account (M.M.A.). Let B(t)
denote the price of a Bond at time t (or the money invested in M.M.A. at time t).
Let r denote the continuously compounded risk-free interest rate in the market. The
dymanics of the Bond is given by the following dierential equation
dB(t) = rB(t) dt,
with initial condition B(0) = B0 , which denotes the price of Bond at time t = 0.
Solving this we get
B(t) = ert B0 .
The randomness in the market is modelled using a probability space (Ω, F, P ). Here,
P will be called real world probability measure. Let W be a Brownian motion dened
on (Ω, F, P ) . Let S denote a risky asset (or stock) in the market. By S(t), we denote
the price of a share of the stock at time t. The dynamics of the stock is given by the
following stochastic dierential equation (SDE):
dS(t) = µS(t) dt + σS(t) dW (t), (4.1.1)
where µ ∈ R and σ > 0. In other words, S(t) follows the Geometric Brownian
motion (G.B.M.). Here, µ will be called drift and σ will be called volatility of the
stock price.
Exercise 4.1.1. Explain why S(t) = W (t) and S(t) = µt + σW (t) are not good
models for the stock price. (It was discussed in class).
In Example 3.2.7, we saw that the process
(4.1.2)
1 2 )t+σW (t)
S(t) = S(0)e(µ− 2 σ
satises the SDE (4.1.1). Conversely, by using Itô lemma on ln S(t), we can prove
that the solution of SDE (4.1.1) is given by (4.1.2)
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Stochastic Calculus Umesh Kumar
Exercise 4.1.2. Using Itô lemma on ln S(t) solve the SDE (4.1.1). (Discussed in
class)
It is clear from (4.1.2) that S(t) follows log-normal distribution.
Exercise 4.1.3. For any t > 0, nd the PDF of S(t). Also, nd E[S(t)] and
V ar[S(t)].
The payo of the writer (short position) of a European call option is given by
−(S(T ) − K))+ = − max(S(T ) − K, 0) = min(K − S(T ), 0).
Similarly, one can write the payos of the long and short positions for a put option.
Exercise 4.1.4. Write the payos for the long position and short position of a put
option. Draw the payo diagrams for long and short positions of both call and put
options.
Since the payo of the holder of a call (or put) option is always non-negative, the
holder is always in benet position than the writer who faces potential liabilities in
the future. For this reason, the holder needs to pay the writer a premium (also called
option price) to enter into this contract. The natural question is: What should be
the fair option price so that the contract is fair to both the holder and the writer.
This is the basic question that we want to deal in this unit of this course. Before
that, we explain some basic terminologies and useful denitions:
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Stochastic Calculus Umesh Kumar
In this case, we sometimes say that the portfolio X is given by (a(t), b(t)).
2. No Arbitrage Principle. Arbitrage in a market means an opportunity to
make a positive prot with zero investment and without taking any risk. Math-
ematically, a portfolio V will produce an arbitrage opportunity if
V (0) = 0, P (V (T ) > 0) = 1 and P (V (T ) > 0) > 0.
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Stochastic Calculus Umesh Kumar
dS = µS dt + σS dW (t) (4.2.1)
where µ ∈ R and σ > 0 are constants. The stock pays no dividend.
• The no arbitrage principle holds.
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Stochastic Calculus Umesh Kumar
= r(V − ∆ S) dt
∂V
= r(V − S ) dt. (4.2.6)
∂S
Comparing (4.2.5) and (4.2.6) we have
∂2V
∂V ∂V 1
r(V − S ) dt = + σ2S 2 2 dt.
∂S ∂t 2 ∂S
with X(t) = x.
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Stochastic Calculus Umesh Kumar
Let C = C(t, S) denote the value of a European call option on an underlying S . The
payo of call option is Φ(S(T )) = (S(T ) − K)+ . Thus the Black-Scholes PDE for a
call option can be written as
∂C ∂C 1 ∂2C
+ rS + σ 2 S 2 2 − rC = 0 (4.3.8)
∂t ∂S 2 ∂S
C(T, S) = (S(T ) − K)+ . (4.3.9)
The price of the call option is given by
C(0) = E Q [e−rT (S(T ) − K)+ ]. (4.3.10)
Computing this expectation we obtain the famous Black-Scholes formulae for price
of a European call option.
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Stochastic Calculus Umesh Kumar
Exercise 4.3.3. Write the Black-Scholes PDE for put option and mention its ter-
minal condition. Also, write the solution as an expectation.
In this section we derive the Black-Scholes formula for the price of a European call
option on a non-dividend paying stock. We noted in the last section that the price
of a call option is given by
C(0) = e−rT E Q [(S(T ) − K)+ ]
= e−rT E Q [(S(T ) − K)1{S(T )>K} ], (4.4.1)
where the expectation is taken under the risk-neutral measure Q. Under Q, the
dynamics of S is given by
1 2 )t+σW Q (t)
S(t) = S(0)e(r− 2 σ ,
√
for t ∈ [0, T ]. Since W Q (T ) ∼ N (0, T ) we can write W Q (T ) = T Z , where Z ∼
N (0, 1) under Q. Thus, we have
1 2 )T +σ
√
S(T ) = S(0)e(r− 2 σ TZ
.
Also,
1 2
√
{S(T ) > K} = {S(0)e(r− 2 σ )T +σ T Z > K}
√
1 2 K
= (r − σ )T + σ T Z > ln
2 S(0)
∗
= {Z > d }.
where
K
ln S(0) − (r − 21 σ 2 )T
d∗ := √
σ T
Using this in (4.4.1) and using the properties of normal distribution, the price of a
call option can be computed as
√
C(0) = e−rT E Q [(S(0)e(r− 2 σ )T +σ T Z − K)1{Z>d∗ } ]
1 2
Z ∞ √
−rT 1 2 1 2
=e (S(0)e(r− 2 σ )T +σ T x − K) √ e−1/2x dx
∗ 2π
Z d∞ √ Z ∞
1 1 2 2 1 2
= S(0) √ e− 2 σ T +σ T x e−1/2x dx − e−rT K √ e−1/2x dx
∗ 2π ∗ 2π
Zd ∞ Z ∞ d
1 − 1 (σ2 T −2σ√T x+x2 ) 1 2
= S(0) √ e 2 dx − e−rT K √ e−1/2x dx
∗ 2π d∗ 2π
Zd ∞ Z ∞
1 − 1 (x−σ√T )2 1 2
= S(0) √ e 2 dx − e−rT K √ e−1/2x dx
d∗ 2π d∗ 2π
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Stochastic Calculus Umesh Kumar
Z ∞ Z ∞
1 1 2 1 2
= S(0) √ √ e− 2 y dy − e−rT K √ e−1/2x dx
d∗ −σ T 2π d∗ 2π
√
Z−d∗ +σ T Z −d∗
1 1 2 1 2
= S(0) √ e− 2 y dy − e−rT K √ e−1/2x dx
−∞ 2π −∞ 2π
√
= S(0)N (−d + σ T ) − e−rT K N (−d∗ ).
∗
Note that
C(T ) − P (T ) = (S(T ) − K)+ − (K − S(T ))+
= S(T ) − K
= F (T ).
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Stochastic Calculus Umesh Kumar
This means that payo of call minus payo of put is same as the payo of a forward.
By no arbitrage argument, we must have
C(0) − P (0) = S(0) − Ke−rT .
This means that a forward derivative can be replicated by taking a long position in
a call option and a short position in a put option. This relation is called put-call
parity. We can use the put-call parity to nd the price of put option from that of
call option. Indeed, we have
P (0) = C(0) − S(0) + Ke−rT .
Now using the Black-Scholes formula for the price of call option, we can immediately
write the Black-Scholes formula for price of put option.
Delta
The sensitivity of the option price with respect to stock price is given by Delta of
the option. We dene the Delta, denoted by the symbol ∆, of an option with value
V , by
∂V
∆= .
∂S
In other words, Delta of an option measures the rate of change in the option value
with respect to the change in stock price. Let us compute the delta of a call option.
Recall that the price of a call option is given by
C = S N (d1 ) − Ke−rT N (d2 ) (4.5.1)
where
S
+ (r ± 12 σ 2 )T
ln
d1,2 = K √ . (4.5.2)
σ T
Delta of call option is given by
∂C
∆call =
∂S
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Stochastic Calculus Umesh Kumar
∂N (d1 ) ∂N (d2 )
= N (d1 ) + S − Ke−rT .
∂S ∂S
We have
∂N (d1 ) ∂N (d1 ) ∂d1
=
∂S ∂d1 ∂S
1 − 1 d21 1
=√ e 2 √ .
2π σ TS
Exercise 4.5.1. Using Put-call parity or directly, prove that the Delta of European
put option is given by
∆put = N (d1 ) − 1.
Gamma
The rate of change in Delta of an option w.r.t. change is S is called Gamma of the
option, that is,
∂∆ ∂2V
Γ := = .
∂S ∂S 2
For call and put options, we have
1 1 2 1
Γcall = Γput = √ e− 2 d1 √ .
2π σ TS
We can similarly dene other Greeks Vega, Rho and Theta as the rate of change of
Option price V with respect to changes in other factors like volatility, interest rate
and maturity (or time to maturity) respectively. Formally, we have
∂V
Vega ν =
∂σ
∂V
Rho ρ =
∂r
∂V
Theta Θ = −
∂T
Exercise 4.5.2. Compute Vega, Rho and Theta for European call and put options.
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Stochastic Calculus Umesh Kumar
Recall that we discussed the change of real world measure P to risk-neutral measure
Q for pricing of options in Black-Scholes model. In this section we discuss the formal
approach of change of measure. In particular, we will see that a Brownian motion
plus a drift term can be converted to a Brownian motion under a new probability
measure. This is the idea of Girsnov's theorem. We rst recall the idea of change of
measure and Radon-Nikodym density.
Let Z be a positive random variable dened on a probability space (Ω, F, P ) and
suppose that E[Z] = 1. Dene Q : F → [0, 1] by
Q(A) = E[Z 1A ] for all A ∈ F. (4.6.1)
Then Q satises the properties given in the following exercise: (already discussed in
Chapter 1, see Question 11 of Problems-1.4).
Exercise 4.6.1. Prove that
(a) Q dened by (4.6.1) is a probability measure on (Ω, F);
(b) Q is equivalent to P , that is, for A ∈ F, P (A) = 0 ⇐⇒ Q(A) = 0);
(c) if X : Ω → R is a random variable, then X is
E Q [X] = E[XZ].
The random variable Z is called the Radon Nikodym density of Q w.r.t. P and
we write
dQ
= Z.
dP
Theorem 4.6.2 (Girsanov's Theorem). Let W be a Brownian motion under P . Let
(Θ(t) : t ∈ [0, T ]) be an adapted stochastic process. Dene
Z t
1 t 2
Z
Z(t) = exp − Θ(s) dW (s) − Θ (s) ds .
0 2 0
If Novikov's condition
1 2
E exp Θ (s) ds < ∞,
2
is satised, then (Z(t) : t ∈ [0, T ]) is a martingale. Dene
Q(A) = E[Z(T )1A ].
Then Q is a probability measure and (W Q (t) : t ∈ [0, T ]) is a Brownian motion under
Q where Z t
W Q (t) := W (t) + Θ(s) ds,
0
or equivalently
dW Q (t) = dW (t) + Θ(t) dt.
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Stochastic Calculus Umesh Kumar
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Stochastic Calculus Umesh Kumar
Lemma 4.6.4. Let Q be a risk-neutral measure, and let X(t) be a portfolio. Under
Q, the discounted portfolio is a martingale.
This idea can be used to price options. For example, if V (t) is value of a derivative
at time t, and a risk-neutral measure Q exists in the market, then the disounted
derivative process (D(t)V (t) : t ∈ [0, T ] is a martingale under Q. So, we have
D(t)V (t) = E Q [D(T )V (T )|Ft ].
But the natural question is what happens if more than one risk-neutral measure
exists. This will make the things complicated as the price may not be determined
uniquely. But in a complete market, the risk neutral measure if exists is always
unique. By a complete market we mean the following:
Denition 4.6.5. A market model is complete if every derivative security can be
hedged, that is, it can be replicated.
We now state two very important theorems of nancial mathematics together
called the fundamental theorem of asset pricing.
Theorem 4.6.6 (First Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing). If a market model
has a risk-neutral probability measure, then it does not admit arbitrage.
Theorem 4.6.7 (Second Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing). Consider a mar-
ket model that has a risk neutral probability measure. The model is complete if and
only if the risk-neutral probability measure is unique.
Note that we have proved the existence of a risk-neutral measure in Black-Scholes
model. Therefore, the Black-Scholes model is arbitrage free. Further, as every deriva-
tive can be replicated, the Black-Scholes model is complete and hence there is a
unique risk neutral measure Q given by (4.6.2). This will guarantee the existence of
unique fair price for a derivative given by the risk-neutral pricing formula.
In the end we discuss the general risk neutral valuation approach. Suppose the
stock price process is given by the generalised geometric Brownian motion (G.G.B.M.)
dS(t) = µ(t)S(t) dt + σ(t)S(t) dW (t).
Here, we assume that µ(·) and σ(·) are adapted processes. By applying Itô lemma
on ln S(t), it follows that
Z t Z t
1 2
S(t) = S(0) exp µ(s) − σ (s) ds + σ(s) dW (s) .
0 2 0
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Stochastic Calculus Umesh Kumar
then (X(t) : t > 0) is a martingale. (Note that X(t) can be written as an Itô integral)
Remark 4.6.9. The converse of this Exercise is also true, that is a martingale is
a driftless process. More formally, we have the martingale representation theorem,
which says that every martingale can be expressed as an Itô integral.
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Stochastic Calculus Umesh Kumar
We have thus shown the existence of a risk-neutral measure Q under which the
discounted stock price is a martingale and the market model is arbitrage free. As-
suming that the market is complete, Q is unique by second fundamental theorem.
Consider an option V with payo V (T ) on underlying S . We want to compute its
price. Since the market is complete, we replicate the payo by a portfolio X , i.e.
X(T ) = V (T ). Then the discounted portfolio is a martingale under Q. We thus
have
D(t)X(t) = E Q [D(T )X(T )|Ft ] = E Q [D(T )V (T )|Ft ].
In particular at time t = 0, we have
X(0) = E Q [D(T )V (T )].
By no-arbitrage, X(0) = V (0). Thus we get the risk neutral pricing formula
V (0) = E Q [D(T )V (T )].
This gives us the general risk-neutral pricing formula which says that the price of
a derivative can be obtained by taking conditional expectation under risk neutral
measure of the discounted payo.
In general, we can have n stocks S1 , . . . , Sn in the market . We are not discussing
the risk neutral valuation approach in this case, but you can look in the Textbook by
Shreve for further details. Also, the interest rate r(t) is assumed deterministic but
can be stochastic also. We can model such interest rate by stochastic processes like
an Ornstein Uhlenbeck process etc. We have many interest rate models like Vasocek
model, CIR model etc. This itself is a nice area of study in nancial mathematics,
but is beyond the scope of current course.
54