Land-Based Wind Market Report:

2024 Edition

Ryan Wiser, Dev Millstein, Ben Hoen, Mark Bolinger, Will Gorman, Joe Rand,
Galen Barbose, Anna Cheyette, Naïm Darghouth, Seongeun Jeong, Julie Kemp,
Eric O'Shaughnessy, Ben Paulos, Joachim Seel

August 2024

This work was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. The views and opinions of the authors expressed
herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof, or The Regents of the University of California. 1
Land-Based Wind Market Report: 2024 Edition

Purpose and Scope:

– Summarize data on key trends in the U.S. wind power sector
– Focus on land-based wind turbines over 100 kW in size
• Separate DOE-funded data collection efforts on distributed and offshore wind
• Note that the Installation Trends, Industry Trends, and Future Outlook sections include
data on both land-based and offshore wind; other chapters focus solely on land-based
– Focus on historical data, with some emphasis on the previous year – 2023
Funding:
– U.S. Department of Energy’s Wind Energy Technologies Office
Products and Availability:
– This briefing is complemented with underlying report, data file, and visualizations
– All products available at: windreport.lbl.gov
2 2
Presentation Contents

Installation trends

Industry trends

Technology trends

Performance trends

Cost trends

Power sales price and levelized cost trends

Cost and value comparisons

Future outlook
3 3
Regional boundaries applied in this analysis include the seven
independent system operators (ISO) and two non-ISO regions

Sources: AWS Truepower, NREL

Regions: Southwest Power Pool (SPP), Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), Midcontinent Independent System Operator
(MISO), California Independent System Operator (CAISO), ISO New England (ISO-NE), PJM Interconnection (PJM), and New York
Independent System Operator (NYISO), and the non-ISO West and Southeast. 4 4
Installation Trends

5
Total U.S. wind capacity additions equaled 6.5 GW in 2023,
representing $10.8 billion in capital investment

• Slow year in terms

of new deployment:
steep decline from
the high in 2020,
lowest since 2014
• 70% of new
capacity in SPP,
ERCOT, MISO
• Partial repowering:
0.6 GW of turbines
retrofitted in 2023
• 150 GW of total
installed capacity at
end of 2023
Source: ACP
Interactive data visualization: https://emp.lbl.gov/wind-energy-growth
6 6
Wind power’s contribution to total U.S. electric-power capacity
additions in 2023 fell to 12%, the lowest level since 2013

Relative contribution of resource Resource capacity additions by

types in annual capacity additions region: 2014-2023

Sources: EIA, ACP

Over the last decade, wind has comprised 26% of total capacity additions, and a
much higher proportion in SPP (86%), MISO (46%), ERCOT (44%)

7 7
Globally, the United States again ranked a distant 2nd in annual and
cumulative total wind power capacity additions in 2023
Annual Capacity Cumulative Capacity
(2023, GW) (end of 2023, GW)
China 75.7 China 441
United States 6.5 United States 150
Brazil 4.8 Germany 69
Germany 3.8 India 45
India 2.8 Spain 31
Netherlands 2.5 Brazil 30
• Global wind additions
Sweden 2.0 United Kingdom 30 totaled over 117 GW in
France 1.8 France 23 2023, a new record
Canada 1.7 Canada 17 • U.S. remains a distant
United Kingdom 1.4 Sweden 16 second to China in annual
Rest of World 13.8 Rest of World 168 and cumulative capacity
TOTAL 117 TOTAL 1,021
Sources: GWEC, ACP
8 8
The United States ranks lower than many other countries in terms of
wind energy as a share of total generation

Source: IEA
Note: Figure includes a subset of the top global wind markets 9 9
The geographic spread of wind power projects across the United
States is broad, except for the Southeast

Interactive data visualization:

https://emp.lbl.gov/wind-energy-growth

Source: ACP, Berkeley Lab

1010
Texas installed the most wind power capacity in 2023; 12 states
exceeded 20% wind as a fraction of in-state generation
Installed Capacity (MW) 2023 Wind Generation as a Percentage of:
Annual (2023) Cumulative (end of 2023) In-State Generation In-State Sales
Texas 1,323 Texas 41,594 Iowa 59.2% Iowa 76.4%
Illinois 928 Iowa 13,007 South Dakota 55.3% South Dakota 69.7%
Kansas 843 Oklahoma 12,624 Kansas 46.2% Kansas 66.3%
New York 557 Kansas 9,078 Oklahoma 41.9% North Dakota 54.8%
Oklahoma 402 Illinois 7,968 New Mexico 38.0% Wyoming 52.8%
South Dakota 399 California 6,195 North Dakota 36.0% Oklahoma 51.9%
Michigan 337 Colorado 5,394 Nebraska 29.7% New Mexico 51.3%
Montana 311 Minnesota 4,859 Colorado 27.2% Nebraska 35.7%
Arizona 239 New Mexico 4,327 Minnesota 25.3% Colorado 29.5%
Iowa 224 North Dakota 4,302 Texas 22.0% Montana 28.4%
Indiana 202 Oregon 4,055 Wyoming 20.6% Texas 24.6%
Colorado 200 Indiana 3,658 Maine 20.5% Maine 22.1%
Wyoming 134 South Dakota 3,618 Montana 17.6% Minnesota 21.8%
Minnesota 100 Michigan 3,568 Idaho 14.8% Oregon 16.9%
California 95 Nebraska 3,519 Vermont 14.6% Illinois 16.1%
Wisconsin 92 Washington 3,407 Oregon 14.6% Idaho 9.9%
Pennsylvania 88 Wyoming 3,286 Illinois 12.3% Washington 9.1%
New York 2,749 Indiana 10.4% Indiana 8.9%
Missouri 2,435 Missouri 10.0% Missouri 8.7%
Interactive data visualization:
Montana 1,737 Washington 7.5% Michigan 8.6%
https://emp.lbl.gov/wind-
Rest of U.S. 0 Rest of U.S. 9,112 Rest of U.S. 1.7% Rest of U.S. 1.5%
Total 6,474 Total 150,492 Total 10.0% Total 11.0%
energy-growth

Source: ACP, EIA

1111
Wind penetration by ISO/RTO is highly variable; in 2023, it was
highest in SPP at 37% and ERCOT at 24%

Sources: EIA, Hitachi, SPP, ERCOT, MISO, CAISO, PJM, ISO-NE, NYISO 1212
Hybrid wind plants that pair wind with storage and other resources
saw growth in 2023, with three new projects completed
Online Wind Hybrid / Co-Located Projects
• 46 hybrid wind power plants in
operation at the end of 2023
• Represent 4.1 GW of wind power and
1.1 GW of co-located resources; three
news plants in 2023 comprise 1.1 GW
of co-located wind capacity
• Most common wind hybrid project
combines wind+storage; other
combinations include wind+PV;
wind+PV+storage; wind+gas
• ERCOT, PJM, non-ISO West host largest
amount of wind hybrid capacity
Interactive data visualization:
https://emp.lbl.gov/online-hybrid-and-energy-
storage-projects

Sources: EIA-860 Early Release, Berkeley Lab

1313
At the end of 2023 there were far more PV+storage hybrid projects
than wind+storage hybrids
# projects Total capacity (MW) Storage ratio Duration (hrs)

0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 18,000 21,000

Wind PV Fossil Storage

PV+Storage 284 13,819.8 7,572.4 55% 2.9

Wind
Wind+Storage 19 2,981.4 528.1 18% 1.1
PV
Fossil
Wind+PV+Storage 5 525.7 76.0 68.8 Storage 11% 2.0

Fossil+Storage 28 6,649.7 1,409.9 21% 2.7

Wind+PV 8 590.3 267.5 0.0 n/a n/a

Notes: Not included in the figure are many other hybrid projects with other configurations. Storage ratio defined as total storage capacity
divided by total generator capacity for a given project type.
Sources: EIA 860 Early Release, Berkeley Lab

Most wind hybrids are Wind+Storage, with limited storage duration, but more-recent projects
have longer storage durations
Interactive data visualization: https://emp.lbl.gov/online-hybrid-and-energy-storage-projects
1414
 A record-high 366 GW of wind exists in transmission interconnection
queues, but solar and storage dominate the queues

Not all this capacity will

be built: ~20% historical
completion rate

Interactive data visualization:

https://emp.lbl.gov/generation
Note: Storage capacity in hybrids was not estimated for years prior to 2020; offshore wind was not separately identified prior to 2020 -storage-and-hybrid-capacity
Source: Berkeley Lab review of interconnection queues 1515
Larger amounts of wind capacity in non-ISO West, NYISO, CAISO, PJM
queues; 33% (120 GW) of wind capacity in queues is offshore

Source: Berkeley Lab review of interconnection queues

Note: Offshore areas reflect the amount of offshore wind in the interconnection queues of each region.

Interactive data visualization: https://emp.lbl.gov/generation-storage-and-hybrid-capacity

1616
Hybrid plants: 13% of wind proposed as hybrids (49 GW); much larger
fraction of solar proposed as hybrids, at 53%

Greater historical commercial interest in

solar hybrids is partly due to policy design—
until recently, the investment tax credit for
solar could be used for paired storage,
whereas the production tax credit regularly
used by wind plants had no such storage
allowance; the Inflation Reduction Act
changed these parameters, with storage or
all configurations now benefiting from the
investment tax credit

Notes: (1) Not all of this capacity will be built; (2) Each bar reflects the
listed resource type; a solar+storage hybrid will have its solar capacity in
the ‘solar’ column and its storage capacity in the ‘storage’ column; (3)
hybrid storage capacity is estimated in some cases.

Source: Berkeley Lab review of interconnection queues

Interactive data visualization: https://emp.lbl.gov/generation-storage-and-hybrid-capacity

1717
Proposed wind hybrids are primarily located in the non-ISO West
and CAISO

Interactive data visualization:

https://emp.lbl.gov/generation-storage-
and-hybrid-capacity

Source: Berkeley Lab review of interconnection queues

1818
Industry Trends

19
Four turbine manufacturers, led by GE, supplied all the U.S. wind
power capacity installed in 2023

Source: ACP 2020

 The Inflation Reduction Act has created renewed optimism about
supply-chain expansion

• Wind equipment manufacturing is

spread across the country
• Manufacturers have announced plans
for 15 new, re-opened or expanded
manufacturing plants focused on
land-based wind after passage of the
Inflation Reduction Act
• The Inflation Reduction Act contains:
• Production-based tax credit for nacelle, blade,
and tower manufacturing
• PTC bonus for wind projects that meet
domestic content requirements

Source: U.S. Department of Energy, ACP 2121

Blade manufacturing capability had fallen in recent years, but capability
for blades, towers, and nacelles is now on the rise

Sources: ACP, independent analyst projections, Berkeley Lab

Note: Actual nacelle assembly, tower production, and blades production would be expected to be below maximum production capacity. 2222
Profitability of wind turbine manufacturers has generally declined over
the last several years, but there were signs of a turnaround in 2023

Sources: OEM annual reports and financial statements 2323

The U.S. wind industry continues to depend on imports, though these
have fallen to their lowest level in a decade

Source: Berkeley Lab analysis of data from USA Trade Online, https://usatrade.census.gov
Notes: Figure only includes tracked trade categories, misses other wind-related imports; wind-related trade codes and definitions are not consistent over the full time
period; see full report for the assumptions used to generate the figure. 2424
Tracked wind equipment imports into the United States in 2023
came from multiple regions of the world

Source: Berkeley Lab analysis of data from USA Trade Online, https://usatrade.census.gov
Notes: Line widths are proportional to amount of imports, by country. Figure does not intend to depict the destination of these imports, by state (that is shown in
table). Tracked wind-specific equipment includes: wind-powered generating sets and parts, towers, generators and generator parts, blades and hubs, and nacelles
2525
Tracked wind equipment imports from China have declined in
recent years, whereas imports from India and Mexico have risen

Source: Berkeley Lab analysis of data from USA Trade Online, https://usatrade.census.gov
Notes: Tracked wind-specific equipment includes: wind-powered generating sets and parts, towers, generators and generator parts, blades and hubs, and nacelles
2626
2023 wind equipment imports came from multiple countries and
regions, which vary by type of wind equipment
• Denmark, followed by Spain, France,
India, and Belgium, were the primary
source countries for wind-powered
generating sets and parts, including
nacelles, in 2023
• Tower imports came from a mix of
countries near and far—Germany,
Portugal, Denmark, Canada, South Korea
• For blades and hubs, Mexico accounted
for 60% of imports, with India, Spain,
China, and Canada the next largest
source countries
• 81% of wind-related generators and
generator parts in 2023 came from
Vietnam, Germany, and Spain, the rest
primarily coming from Serbia and China
Source: Berkeley Lab analysis of data from USA Trade Online, https://usatrade.census.gov
Note: See full report for formal definitions of the equipment included in these trade categories 2727
Independent Power Producers own most wind assets built in 2023,
extending historical trends

Source: Berkeley Lab estimates based on ACP

Note: Graphic on left shows distribution among growing cumulative fleet of projects installed. Pie chart shows distribution only among those projects built in 2023. 2828
Non-utility buyers entered more contracts to purchase wind than did
utilities in 2023

Source: Berkeley Lab estimates based on ACP

Note: Graphic on left shows distribution among growing cumulative fleet of projects installed. Pie chart shows distribution only among those projects built in 2023. 2929
Technology Trends

30
Turbine capacity, rotor diameter, and hub height have all increased
over the long term

Graphic is
based on new
installations,
each year

Sources: ACP, Berkeley Lab Interactive data visualization: https://emp.lbl.gov/wind-power-technology-trends

3131
Turbine size maintains upward trajectory; turbines originally designed
for lower wind speeds dominate the market

Specific power: turbine

capacity divided by
swept rotor area; lower
specific power leads to Interactive data
visualization:
higher capacity factors,
https://emp.lbl.go
as shown later v/specific-power

2022 average =
237 W/m2
Sources: ACP, Berkeley Lab
3232
Wind turbines were deployed in lower wind-speed sites in 2023
than in recent years

Sources: ACP, Berkeley Lab, AWS Truepower, FAA files

Note: Wind resource quality index is based on site estimates of gross capacity factor at 100 meters. A single, common wind-turbine power curve is
used across all sites and timeframes, and no losses are assumed. Values are indexed to those projects built in 1998—1999. 3333
Low-specific-power turbines are deployed on a widespread basis;
taller towers are seeing increased use in a wider variety of sites
Specific Power Hub Height

Sources: ACP, U.S. Wind Turbine Database, AWS Truepower, Berkeley Lab

Interactive data visualization: https://emp.lbl.gov/wind-power-technology-trends

3434
Wind projects planned for the near future are poised to continue the
trend of taller turbines

Proposed turbines show significant growth in total turbine height, compared to projects that
entered commercial operation in 2023

Sources: ACP, FAA files, AWS Truepower, Berkeley Lab

3535
 In 2023, seven projects were partially repowered, all of which now
feature significantly larger rotors and lower specific power ratings

Partial Repowering by Year Technology Change with Partial Repowering

(Figure shows wind project capacity repowered each year) (Figure shows average technology change for wind turbines repowered in 2023)

Sources: ACP, Berkeley Lab, turbine manufacturers

The mean age of turbines retrofitted in 2022 was just 11 years

3636
Performance Trends

37
Average capacity factor in 2023 (a low wind year, nationwide) was
33.5% on a fleet-wide basis and 38.2% among projects built in 2022

Interactive data visualization:

https://emp.lbl.gov/wind-
Source: EIA, FERC, Berkeley Lab power-performance
3838
The central part of the country features the highest capacity factors,
in part reflecting the strength of the wind resource
Newer projects (right figure) have higher capacity factors than the full sample of projects (left figure)

Source: EIA, FERC, Berkeley Lab Interactive data visualization:

Note: States shaded in white have no projects in full https://emp.lbl.gov/wind-power-
sample (left) or in newer sample (right) performance
3939
Turbine design and site characteristics influence performance

See full report for details on and

Source: EIA, FERC, Berkeley Lab
interpretation of figure
4040
Controlling for wind resource quality and specific power
demonstrates impact of turbine evolution
Low specific power turbines have generally driven capacity factors higher for projects
located in given wind resource regimes

Note: See full report for a

description of this
categorization of wind
resource quality

Source: EIA, FERC, Berkeley Lab

4141
Wind power curtailment in 2023 varied by region, averaging
4.6% across seven ISOs; highest in SPP and ERCOT

Sources: ERCOT, MISO, CAISO, NYISO, PJM, ISO-NE, SPP 4242

2023 was a low wind resource year across most of the country: 33.5%
fleet-wide capacity factor in 2023 was down from 36.1% in 2022

Source: ERA, Berkeley Lab; methodology behind the index of inter-annual variability is explained in report appendix 4343
Wind project performance declines as projects age, both for older
(pre-2008) projects and newer (post-2027) projects

Source: EIA, FERC, Berkeley Lab

For more analysis on wind project performance with plant age, see:
https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/how-does-wind-project-performance 4444
Cost Trends

45
Wind turbine prices declined in 2023, averaging roughly $1,000/kW

Sources: Berkeley Lab, annual financial reports, forecast providers 4646

Despite recent fluctuations in turbine prices, average reported
installed project costs have held surprisingly steady since 2018

Interactive data visualization:

Note: Smallest bubble size reflects smallest wind project (< 1 MW), whereas largest bubble size reflects largest
https://emp.lbl.gov/wind-energy-
wind project (> 1,000 MW)
Sources: Berkeley Lab, EIA (some data points suppressed to protect confidentiality) capital-expenditures-capex 4747
Considering projects installed in 2022 and 2023, ERCOT and SPP
are the two lowest-cost regions

Note: Bubbles reflect projects that range from roughly 2 MW to 1,000 MW Interactive data visualization: https://emp.lbl.gov/wind-
Source: Berkeley Lab
energy-capital-expenditures-capex 4848
Installed costs (per megawatt) generally decline with project size,
are lowest for projects over 200 MW

Note: Bubbles reflect projects that range from roughly 2 MW to 1,000 MW

Source: Berkeley Lab 4949
Operations and maintenance (O&M) costs vary by commercial
operations date and project age

Source: Berkeley Lab; some data points suppressed to protect confidentiality

Note: Sample is limited; few projects in sample have complete records of O&M costs from 2000-23; O&M costs reported here do not include all operating costs. 5050
O&M costs are higher for projects built before 2006

O&M reported here

does not include all
operating costs: all-
in operating costs for
the most recent wind
projects average
>$40/kW-year

Source: Berkeley Lab; medians shown only for groups of two or more projects, and only projects >5 MW are included
Note: Sample size is limited, especially after year 15 5151
Power Sales Price and
Levelized Cost Trends

52
Wind power purchase agreement (PPA) prices have drifted higher
since about 2018: recent range from <$20/MWh to >$40/MWh

Note: Smallest bubble sizes reflect smallest-volume PPAs (<5 MW), whereas largest Interactive data visualization: https://emp.lbl.gov/wind-
reflect largest-volume PPAs (>500 MW)
power-purchase-agreement-ppa-prices 5353
Source: Berkeley Lab, FERC
Average PPA prices have steeply declined since 2009 but risen in
more recent years; prices lowest in central region

Source: Berkeley Lab, FERC

Note: West = CAISO, West (non-ISO); Central = MISO, SPP, ERCOT; East = PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE, Southeast (non-ISO) 5454
LevelTen Energy’s PPA price indices confirm rising PPA prices
and regional variation

Source: LevelTen Energy

Notes: See full report for approach to converting nominal dollar LevelTen data to levelized real 2023$ as reported in figure above.
Dashed lines represent interpolations between data points where intermediate data are missing. 5555
Levelized cost of wind energy (LCOE): nationwide average of
$49/MWh for limited sample of projects installed in 2023

Source: Berkeley Lab Interactive data visualization:

Note: Yearly estimates reflect variations in installed cost, capacity factors, operational costs, cost of
https://emp.lbl.gov/levelized-
financing, and project life; includes accelerated depreciation but excludes PTC. See full report for details. cost-wind-energy 5656
Levelized costs vary by region, with the lowest costs in SPP and
ERCOT for recently (2022-2023) built projects

Note: Bubbles reflect projects that range from

roughly 2 MW to 1,000 MW
Interactive data visualization: https://emp.lbl.gov/levelized-cost-wind-energy 5757
Source: Berkeley Lab
Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) prices continue to vary
substantially across markets and time

Source: Marex Spectron

REC prices vary by: market type (compliance vs. voluntary);
geographic region; specific design of state RPS policies.
5858
Cost and Value Comparisons

59
Despite relatively low PPA prices, wind faces competition from
solar and natural gas

Source: Berkeley Lab, FERC, EIA

Note: Smallest bubble sizes reflect smallest-volume PPAs (<5 MW), whereas largest reflect largest-volume PPAs (>500 MW) 6060
Recent wind prices are comparable to the expected future cost of
burning fuel in natural gas plants

Source: Berkeley Lab, FERC, EIA

Notes: Price comparisons shown are far from perfect—see full report for details
STEO = EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook; AEO = EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 6161
The grid-system market value of wind declined in 2023 across all
regions and was lower than recent PPA prices in several regions

Wholesale
market value
considers hourly
local wholesale
energy price
and hourly wind
output, along
with capacity
value where
available

Interactive data visualization:

https://emp.lbl.gov/wind-
energy-market-value
Sources: Berkeley Lab, Hitachi, ISOs
Note: Data on contract-specific 2023 PPA prices not available
6262
The grid-system market value of wind in 2023 varied strongly by
location, from an average of $13/MWh in SPP to $60/MWh in CAISO

Sources: Berkeley Lab, Hitachi, ISOs Interactive data visualization: https://emp.lbl.gov/wind-energy-market-value 6363
The grid-system market value of wind varies substantially by
project location

Sources: Berkeley Lab, Hitachi, ISOs Interactive data visualization: https://emp.lbl.gov/wind-energy-market-value 6464
Average “value factor” of wind (value relative to flat block) is highly
variable across regions, and tends to decline with penetration

Sources: Berkeley Lab, Hitachi, ISOs

Value factor = wholesale market value of wind relative to generalized flat block of power in region; generalized flat block is
24x7 average price across all pricing nodes in region 6565
 Grid-system market value of wind tends to decline with penetration,
impacted by output profile, transmission congestion, and curtailment
Average market value de-rate of wind in 2023 relative to a flat block varied by region: dominated by wind’s
output profile in some regions and congestion in others

Sources: Berkeley Lab, Hitachi, ISOs Note: generalized flat block is 24x7 average price across all pricing nodes in region 6666
As a location-dependent resource, wind power often requires or
benefits from new transmission
New transmission build has been relatively modest in recent years

Source: FERC 6767

The health and climate benefits of wind are larger than its grid-system
value; combination of all three far exceeds the levelized cost of wind
Health and Climate Benefits of Wind Grid, Health, and Climate Benefits
in 2023 Vary Regionally, Average of Wind Plants in 2023 Far Exceed
$162/MWh Nationally Recent Wind Project LCOE

Note: Estimates not provided for Southeast due to small number of wind plants in that region.
Sources: Berkeley Lab, EIA Form 930

6868
Future Outlook

69
Analysts project growing wind deployment, spurred by incentives in
the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)
• IRA extended PTC at full value for at least ten years for projects that meet wage & apprenticeship requirements
• Two 10% bonuses on top of PTC, for meeting domestic content requirements or for location in energy community
• Additional tax credits for domestic clean energy manufacturing, including for nacelles, blades & towers

• IRA has resulted in both

higher expectations for future
capacity growth and a
growing number of
announcements for new,
expanded, and re-opened
manufacturing facilities
• But, limited transmission,
interconnection costs and
timeframes, siting and
permitting challenges,
inflation and interest rates,
and competition from solar
may dampen growth
7070
Sources: ACP, independent analyst projections
The underlying report, an accessible data file, and
multiple visualizations can be found at:
• windreport.lbl.gov

To contact the primary author:

• Ryan Wiser, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
510-486-5474, [email protected]

Berkeley Lab’s contributions to this work were funded by the

Wind Energy Technologies Office, Office of Energy Efficiency and
Renewable Energy of the U.S. Department of Energy under
Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. The authors are solely
responsible for any omissions or errors contained herein.
71