lOMoARcPSD|21513918

48.Thebe
stf
ore
cas
tisa
lwa
yst
heonet
hati
sthemos
tac
cur
ate
.
True Fal
se

49.Movi
ngave
rag
eande
xpone
nti
als
moo
thi
ngf
ore
cas
ti
ngt
echni
que
sar
eus
edf
orl
ongr
ang
efor
eca
sts
.
True Fa
lse

50.Aproa
cti
veapproac
htofor
ecas
ti
ngviewsf
ore
cas
tsa
spr
oba
blede
scr
ipt
ionsoff
utur
ede
mand,a
ssumi
ng
act
ion
scanbeta
k e
nt omeett
hatde
ma nd
.
True Fal
se

51.Aproa
cti
vea
ppr
oac
htof
ore
cas
tsmi
ghti
nvol
vea
dve
rti
si
ngoro
the
rat
temp
tst
oinflue
ncet
hed
ema
ndl
eve
l.
True Fal
se

52.Forecast
sc a
nhe l
pama na g
ertodoa
lloft
hef
oll
owi
ngEXCEPT:
A.reduceunc er
tai
ntyinplannin
g
B.designthesyste
m
C.plantheu seofthesys
tem
D.scheduletheuseofthesy s
tem
E.predic
tthef ut
urepre
cise
ly

p.4
53.Inoperat
ions,forec
ast
sa rethebas
isforal
loft
hef
oll
owi
ngEXCEPT:
A.capacit
ypla nni
n g production
B.locat
ionplanning facilities
C.overal
li
un
nventorylev
elplanningv
D.scheduli
ngof pr
od
mmmvucti
on
/
E.fore
cast
sa rethebasisf
ora lloft
hechoice
s

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72.Disadvanta
g esofnai
v ef
ore
cast
si ncl
ude
:
I.t
ime-consumi ng
II
.notverya ccurat
e
II
I.doesnotsmoo t
hrandomv a
ria
tions
A.I,IIandI I
I
B.IandI I
C.IandI II
D.IIandI I
I
E.noneo fthec h
oicesaredi
sadva
ntag e
s

73.Thena i
vefor
ecast
:
A.isquickandeasytoprepar
e
B.iseasyforuser
stounderst
and
C.canserveasana c
cura
cys t
andar
dforo
the
rte
chni
que
s
D.allofthechoi
cesaret
rue
E.noneo fth
ec h
oicesar
et r
ue

74.Usi
ngthel a
tes
tobserva
tioni
naseq
uenc
eofd
atat
ofor
eca
stt
hene
xtpe
riodi
s:
A.amo vin
ga ver
agefore
cast
B.anaivefor
ecast
C.anexponenti
all
ysmoo t
hedfor
eca
st
D.anassocia
ti
veforeca
st
E.noneofthechoice
sa r
etrue

p.15 -
16
75.Fort
heda
tagi
venbe
low,wha
twoul
dthena
ivef
ore
cas
tbef
ort
hene
xtpe
riod?

naive onwowed
-

2022, 13M
1
+

2823, forcast 13 m
-

A.58 62
B.62 naive
approach
own
I
C.59.5
2027,10n(
-

D.61 3M
+

2022, 13M
-

/
E.noneoft
hec
hoi
c e
sar
etr
ue ①d
2023/13 3 18
- =
+

2824/76 3
+
-

12

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76.Gi
vent
hef
oll
owi
nghi
st
ori
calda
ta,wha
tist
hes
impl
ethr
ee-
per
iodmo
vin
gav
era
gef
ore
cas
tforp
eri
od6?

=
.
-

A.67
B.115 65 73 67
+
+

C.69
/
D.68 3
E.68.
67

77.Give
nthefol
lowi
nghis
tor
ica
lda
taa
ndwe
ight
sof.
5,.
3,a
nd.
2,wha
tist
hewe
ight
edt
hre
e-pe
riodmo
vin
g
aver
agefor
eca
stf
orperi
od5?

↓
A.144.
20
/
B.144.
80 142(0.2) 148(0.3)
+
+
144(0.5)
C.144.
67 0.2 + 0.3 0.5
+

D.143.
00
E.144.
00

p. 16

78.Mo vi
n gaver
agef ore
c a
stingtechniq ues:
A.imme diat
el
yr eflec
tchangi ngpat t
ernsintheda
ta.
B.leadchangesint hedata. c
forcast an'tlead anything
⑤
C.smoo t
hv ar
iat
ionsi ntheda ta.
D.allofthechoicesa r
etrue.X
E.noneo fth
ec hoicesaretrue.X

79.Whic hisnotac har

acte
rist
icofsimplemo
vin
gav
era
gesa
ppl
ie
dtot
imes
eri
esda
ta?
A.smoo t
he sr
andomv ar
iat
ionsinthedata
B.weightseachhistor
icalval
uee qual
ly
C.la
gsc hangesinthedata
-
D.hasmi nimalrel
ianceonhistori
caldat
a
E.smooth e
srealvaria
ti
onsint hedata

13

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66/4 Units
85.Simpl
eexpone
nti
als
moo t
hingisbei
ngusedtof
ore
castde
mand.Theprevi
ousfor
ecas
tof66tur
nedoutt
obe
4 fouruni
tsl
esst
hanac
tua
ld e
m and.Thenextf
ore
cas
tis66.
6,i
m pl
yin
g asmoot
hingcons
tant
,al
pha,e
qualt
o:
A..01
66.6 66 a(4)
B..10 +

-
=

C..15
D..20 0.15 0=

E..60

86.Givenanac
tualde
ma ndof59,aprevi
ousf
orec
astof64,a
nda
nal
phaof.3,wha twoul
dthefor
ecas
tfort
he
nextperi
odbeusin
gsimpleexpone
nti
alsmoot
hin
g?
A.36 .
9
forecast previous forecast a previouse-previous ( I
+

B.57.5 next
=

actual forecast
C.60.5
⑤
D.62.5 64 0.3(59 64)
+ -

E.65.5

87.Givena
na c
tualdemandof105,apredi
ct
edv a
lueof97,a
nda
nal
phaof.
4,t
hes
impl
eexpone
nti
al
smoothi
ngfor
ecas
tforthene
xtperiodwoul
dbe:
A.80.8
B.93.8
⑤
C.100.2
FX= f+- a(A f- 1)
-

D.101.8
+

1
+

E.108.2
0.4(185
=
-

97)

88.Whi c
hofthefol
lowi
ngpo
ssi
blev
alue
sofa
lphawoul
dca
usee
xpone
nti
als
moo
thi
ngt
ore
spondt
hemos
t
quickl
ytofo
recas
terr
ors
?
A.0
B..01
C..05
D..10
E..15

15

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next 40,000 150+

&time
+

89.Ama nag
e ru
sesthef
oll
owinge quat
iont
opredictmonthlyr
ece
ipt
s:Yt
=40,000+150t
.Wha ti
sthef
ore
cas
t
forJ
ulyofnextyea
rift=0inApr iloft
hisye
ar?
·an ·
April 4 0
=

A.40,450
40000 150(157

in
+

B.40,600 may
sune MAR 11
/
C.42,100
SVlY April 12
D.42,250
AVG
E.42,
4 00
SEP maybe 134
at
NOV
orly is

BEC =
90.Int
rend-a
djust
ede xponenti
alsmoothi
ng,thetr
endad
just
edfor
eca
st(
TAF)c
ons
ist
sof
:
A.anexponenti
all
ys moo t
hedforeca
standas moothe
dtr
endfac
tor
B.anexponenti
al
lys moothedfore
castandane s
ti
ma t
edt
rendval
ue
C.theol
df or
ecas
ta dj
ustedbyat r
endfact
or
D.theol
df or
ecastandas moo t
hedtre
ndfactor
E.amo vi
ngaverageandat rendfac
tor

91.Inthe"addit
ive"modelforsea
sonali
ty,s
easonal
it
yisexpr
ess
edasa______________ad
just
mentt
othe
aver
age;inthemul t
ipli
cat
iv
emode l,s
easonal
it
yi se
xpre
ssedasa______________a
djus
tmentt
othea
vera
ge.
A.quanti
ty,proport
ion
B.proporti
on,quanti
ty
C.quanti
ty,quanti
ty
D.proporti
on,proporti
on
E.noneo fthechoicesar
ecorre
ct

92.Whichtechniqueisusef
uli
ncomput
ings
e a
sona
lre
lat
iv
es?
A.doublesmoo t
hing
B.Delphit
echnique
C.MSE Center average
-
D.centr
edmo vingaverag
e
E.exponen
tia
ls moothin
g only way
Seasonal relative

16

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seidi
1 year
=

4Q puafr's
donwni+
seasonal 107a' + X &relative
93.Thef
ofla
stye
ol
a
l
r
o
.Q
wi
u
n
a
r
manu
t↑
ge
e
r
qua
r
e
t
l
a
i
oni
t
ive
s
sus
a
re
edt
Q1
opr
=
e
1
di
.
5;
c
Q
tq
1
ua
=
r
t
0
e
.
8
r
l
;
yde
Q 1=
ma
nd:Yt
1.
1;an
=350-2.
dQ4=0.
5t
6.
,whe
Wha
r
t
et=0i
i
sthef
o
nt
re
c
hes
ast
e
f
o
c
r
ondq
t
hel
a
ua
s
t
rt
er

quar
teroft
hisyear
? last aof

↑
this year
⑨
A.201
Q2
=
0 01 3
=

B.335 Y+ 350 2.5(6) = -

C.268 Q3 152 4
= =

D.199.5 Y =33.5 +

2 5
Q4 G5
=
=

E.266
Q4 0/
=

94.Whichofthef ol
lowi
ngmi
ghtbeus
edt
oha
ndl
ethec
ycl
ic
alc
ompone
ntofaf
ore
cas
t?
A.lea
dingvaria
ble
B.MSE
C.Delphite
chnique
D.exponent
ialsmoothin
g
E.cycl
icalr
ela
ti
ves

95.Thepri
ma ryme t
hodforas
soc
iat
iv
efor
eca
sti
ngi
s:
A.sensi
ti
vit
ya nal
ysi
s
B.regr
essi
ona nal
ysi
s
C.simpl
emo vingaver
ages
D.centr
edmo vingave
rages
E.exponent
ialsmoot
hing

96.Whi cht erm mostcl

ose
lyr
ela
test
oas
soc
iat
iv
efor
eca
sti
ngt
echni
que
s?
A.timese riesdata
B.linea
rre lat
ionshi
ps
C.theDe lphitechnique
D.co ns
ume rsurvey
E.predic
to rvariabl
es

97.Whi c
hoft hefollowin
gcor
res
pondst
othepr
edi
ct
orv
ari
abl
eins
impl
eli
nea
rre
gre
ssi
on?
A.regres
sioncoeffic
ient
B.dependentvari
a ble
C.independentvariabl
e
D.predic
tedv ar
iable
E.dema nd

17

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102.Pos
iti
vefor
ecas
terr
orsme
ant
hatt
hef
ore
cas
t:
A.wa st
ooh i
gh
B.wa st
oolow
C.wa sa
ccurat
e
D.wa si
rre
gular
E.noneofthechoi
ces

MAP
103.Gi
venf
ore
cas
ter
rorsof4,8,a
nd-
3,wha
tist
heme
ana
bsol
utede
via
ti
on?
A.4
B.3 4 8 3
+ +

=5
/
C.5
D.6 3
E.12

104.MSEwe ighserr
orsaccordingto______________a
ndMAPEwe
ighsa
ccor
din
gto________
_______:
A.squar
edv a
lues;meana b
s ol
utevalues
B.absol
uteval
ues;absol
utepe r
cent
a geerr
or
C.absol
uteperc
entageerr
or;squaredv a
lues
-
D.squar
ed va
lues;absol
utep e
rcent
ag eer
ror
E.noneofthechoice
sa r
ec orr
ect

105.Giv
enf
ore
cas
ter
ror
sof5,0,-
4,a
nd3,wha
tist
heme
ana
bsol
utede
via
ti
on(
MAD)
?
A.4
/
B.3
C.2.5
D.2
E.1

106.Giv
enfor
ecas
ter
ror
sof-
5,-
10,a
nd+15,wha
tist
heme
ana
bsol
utede
via
ti
on(
MAD)
?
A.0
⑨
B.10
C.30
D.175
E.noneoft
hese

19

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107.Thea
ctua
lde
manda
ndt
hef
ore
cas
tedde
mandf
orapr
oduc
twe
rea
sfol
lows
:

ComputetheMAPE. ↑Actual -
for cast
MAPE =
2 x108
A.0.077 *2 +
(a)
~
B.7.7
n
C.20.3 =
A A -
F
D.23 1 x100
2.07
1286 280 ↓ 286
E.noneofthe
se
13.73 Sum 23.0
=

2255290 35555
x108 1

3
27541007.27
n
=

3275295 20
0

108.Whichoft hefollo
wi ngi
susedf
orc
ons
truc
ti
ngac
ont
rolc
har
t?
A.me anabsolut
ede via
tion(MAD)
B.me ansquareder
r or(MSE)
C.tra
ckin
gs ignal(
TS)
D.bias
E.noneofthec hoi
ce sarecor
rec
t

*
*
109.Thet womos timportantf
act
orsi
nchoos
ingaf
ore
cas
ti
ngt
echni
quea
re:
A.costandtimehor izon
B.accuracyandtimehor iz
on
-C.costandac c
uracy
D.allofthechoicesarecorrec
t
E.noneo fthechoicesarecorr
ect

110.Whichofthefollowingfa
ctorsi
sgener
a l
lyno
tac
ons
ide
rat
iona
tthet
imeofs
ele
cti
nga
nappr
opr
iat
e
for
ecas
ti
ngme thodtou se
?
A.amountofhistori
caldat
aa v
aila
ble
B.for
ecas
thorizonv
/
C.meansquaree r
rorinthefor
ecast (A Bl
-

D.evi
denceofapa tt
ernintimes e
rie
sdata
E.pre
para
tio
nt ime(cost)

20

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* **
119.Whati
sthef
ore
cas
tfort
hisy
earu
sin
gexponenti
als
moothi
ngwi
thal
pha=0. 5,i
fthef
ore
cas
tfort
woy
ear
s
agowas16,
000?
A.18,
750
X
B.19,
500 nextyear: previous a actual previous +
-

C.21,
000
D.22,
650 10008 0.5(20,000
=
16000) + -

E.22,
800 18000 =

18000)
this 18000
year: 0.5(2,000
+
-

=
19508
120.Wha ti
sthefor
ecas
tforthi
syea
rusi
ngtr
endadj
ust
ed(doubl
e)s
moothi
ngwithal
pha(
1)=.05andal
pha
(2)
=0.3,ift
hefore
castf
orlastyea
rwas21,
000,
thef
ore
castf
ortwoyea
rsa
gowa s19,
000,a
ndthetr
endes
ti
mate
forl
astyear
'
sforec
astwas1,500?
A.18,750
B.19,500
C.21,000
D.22,650
E.22,800

121.Whati
sthef
ore
cas
tfort
hisy
earu
sin
gthel
eas
tsq
uar
est
rendl
inef
ort
hes
eda
ta?
A.18,
750
B.19,
500
C.21,
000
D.22,
650
E.22,
800

122.Wha
tist
hef
ore
cas
tfort
hisy
earu
sin
gthena
ivea
ppr
oac
h?
A.163
B.180
C.100
D.420
E.510

23

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 lOMoARcPSD|21513918

Prof
e s
sorZnee
dstoal
loca
tet
imeamongs
ever
alt
asksne
xtweektoincl
udet
imeforst
udent
s'a
ppoi
ntment
s.
Thus,henee
dst
ofore
castt
henumbe
rofst
ude
ntswhowills
eekappoint
ment
s.Hehasgat
her
edthef
ollo
wing
dat
a:
forcas +

9 -

15 90
85
* W

127.Wha
tist
hiswe
ek'
sfor
eca
stu
sin
gthena
ivea
ppr
oac
h?
A
-.35
B.50
C.52
D.65
E.78

128.Wha
tist
hiswe
ek'
sfor
eca
stu
sin
gat
hre
e-we
eks
impl
emo
vin
gav
era
ge?
A.49
B.50
C.52
->
D.65
- >

E.78 3

* 0.2 previso 8
=

129.Whati
sthi
swe
ek'
sfor
eca
stu
sin
gexpone
nti
als
moo
thi
ngwi
tha
lpha=.
2,i
fthef
ore
cas
tf --
ort
woweeksa g
o
ma
was90?
A.49
Laskweek 90 0.2(65
-90)
=

B.50
C.52 Laskweek 85 =

D.65
- 857 0.2(58 -

E.78 week 85
= +

this
78
=

downs actual
NOTE o
=
forcast
as week

25

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 lOMoARcPSD|21513918

weigh one with year

recent

133.Whati
sthi
sye
ar'
sfor
eca
stus
ingatwo-
yea
rwe
ight
edmovi
ngave
ragewi
thwe
ight
sof.
7and.
3?
-
A.19,
400
B.18,
600
10.3(18000) (0.7) (20000)
+

C.19,
000
D.11,
400
E.10,
600 0.3 + 0.7

134.Whati
sthi
sye
ar'
sfor
eca
stus
inge
xpone
nti
als
moo
thi
ngwi
tha
lpha=.
2,i
fla
sty
ear
'ss
moo
the
dfor
eca
st
was15,
000?
thas 1,000 0.2120,000 15000)
A.20,
000 =
+
-

B.19,
000
C.17,
500 YepH
1
D.16,
000
E.15,
000

135.Whati
sthi
sye
ar'
sfor
eca
stus
ingt
hel
eas
tsq
uar
est
rendl
inef
ort
hes
eda
ta?
A.20,
000
B.21,
000
C.22,
000
D.23,
000
E.24,
000

136.Thepr
evioust
rendl
ineha
dpredic
ted18,
500fort
woy
ear
sago
,and19,
700forl
asty
ear
.Wha
twa
sthe
meanabsol
utedevi
at
ion(
MAD)f orthes
efore
cas
ts
?
A.100
B.200
-
C.400

Inazoo 1
D.500
E.800 78508 508

-o

-0 vs

27

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137.Thepr
evioustr
endl
inehadpr
edi
ct
ed18,500fortwoy
ear
sag
o,a
nd19,
700f
orl
asty
ear
.Whatwast
he
- 10
meanabsol
uteperc
enter
ror(
MAPE)forthe
sefore
c a
sts
?
MAPE
A.0.21
W/AB1
B.2.14

1,0000100 I
C.4.28
D.100 1500/18000 1100 2.78 =

E.400
(300 20000 000

*
1.5
4.28
=

2
Thedeanofasc
hoolofbusi
nessi
sfor
eca
sti
ngt
ota
lst
ude
nte
nrol
mentf
ort
hisy
ear
'ss
umme
rse
ssi
onc
las
ses
basedonthef
oll
owin
ghistor
ica
ldat
a:

138.Whati
sthi
syear
'sf
ore
cas
tus
ingt
hena
ivea
ppr
oac
h?
A.2,000
B.2,200
3000 200
+

C.2,800
/
D.3,200
E.noneoft
hechoi
ces

139.Wha ti
sthi
sye
ar'
sfor
eca
stus
ingat
hre
e-y
ears
implemo
vin
gav
era
ge?
/
A.2,667
B.2,600
C.2,500 2,800 300
- +
+

D.2,400
E.2,333 3

28

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 lOMoARcPSD|21513918

140.Wha ti
sthi
sye
ar'
sfor
eca
stus
inge
xpone
nti
als
moo
thi
ngwi
tha
lpha=.
4,i
fla
sty
ear
'ss
moo
the
dfor
eca
st
was2600?
A.2,600
= 2608 0.4(3080 26887 Thi
+
-

B.2,
- 760
C.2,800
D.3,840
E.3,000

141.Wha
tist
hea
nnua
lra
teofc
han
ge(
sl
ope
)oft
hel
eas
tsq
uar
est
rendl
inef
ort
hes
eda
ta?
A.0
B.200
C.400
D.180
E.360
*

142.Wha ti
sthi
sye
ar'
sfor
eca
stus
ingt
hel
eas
tsq
uar
est
rendl
inef
ort
hes
eda
ta?
A.3,600
B.3,500
C.3,400
D.3,300
E.3,200

TheownerofLe i
sur
eBout
iquei
naloca
lma l
lisfor
eca
sti
ngt
hismont
h'
s(Oc
tobe
r'
s)de
mandf
oroneofhe
r
best
-s
ell
ingproduct
sbas
edonthef
oll
owinghi
stor
ica
ldata
:

+ 40

2 show wise

29

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