IST 3208: Modelling and Simulation
Module 1 Introduction to
Simulation
Course Aims
n Acquire basic knowledge about simulation and
modelling
n Develop critical thinking and analytical skills
n Attain skills of building simulation models and learn how
to model and simulate a variety of management-related
problems.
n To be able to solve real world problems which cannot
be solved strictly by mathematical approaches using
modeling and simulation.
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Course Objectives
n Demonstrate basic knowledge about simulation and
modelling
n Exhibit critical thinking and analytical skills
n Display skills of building simulation models and how to
model and simulate a variety of management-related
problems.
n Manifest competence in solving real world problems
which cannot be solved strictly by mathematical
approaches using Modelling and Simulation.
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Outline
n When Simulation Is the Appropriate Tool
n When Simulation Is Not Appropriate
n Advantages and Disadvantages of Simulation
n Areas of Application
n Systems and System Environment
n Components of a System
n Discrete and Continuous Systems
n Model of a System
n Types of Models
n Discrete-Event System Simulation
n Steps in a Simulation Study
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Definition
n A simulation is the imitation of the operation of real-world
process or system over time.
¨ Generation of artificial history and observation of that
observation history
n A model construct a conceptual framework that
describes a system
n The behavior of a system that evolves over time is
studied by developing a simulation model.
n The model takes a set of expressed assumptions:
¨ Mathematical, logical
¨ Symbolic relationship between the entities
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Goal of modeling and simulation
n A model can be used to investigate a wide verity of “what
if” questions about real-world system.
¨ Potential changes to the system can be simulated and predicate
their impact on the system.
¨ Find adequate parameters before implementation
n So simulation can be used as
¨ Analysis tool for predicating the effect of changes
¨ Design tool to predicate the performance of new system
n It is better to do simulation before Implementation.
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How a model can be developed?
n Mathematical Methods
¨ Probability theory, algebraic method ,…
¨ Their results are accurate
¨ They have a few Number of parameters
¨ It is impossible for complex systems
n Numerical computer-based simulation
¨ It is simple
¨ It is useful for complex system
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When Simulation Is the Appropriate Tool
n Simulation enable the study of internal interaction of a
subsystem with complex system
n Informational, organizational and environmental
changes can be simulated and find their effects
n A simulation model help us to gain knowledge about
improvement of system
n Finding important input parameters with changing
simulation inputs
n Simulation can be used with new design and
policies before implementation.
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When Simulation Is the Appropriate Tool
n Simulating different capabilities for a machine can help
determine the requirement
n Simulation models designed for training make learning
possible without the cost disruption
n A plan can be visualized with animated simulation
n The modern system (factory, wafer fabrication plant, service
organization) is too complex that its internal interaction can
be treated only by simulation.
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When Simulation Is Not Appropriate
n When the problem can be solved by common
sense.
n When the problem can be solved analytically.
n If it is easier to perform direct experiments.
n If cost exceed savings.
n If resource or time are not available.
n If system behavior is too complex.
¨ Like human behavior
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Advantages and disadvantages of simulation
n In contrast to optimization models, simulation
models are “run” rather than solved.
¨ Given as a set of inputs and model characteristics the
model is run and the simulated behavior is observed
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Advantages of simulation
n New policies, operating procedures, information flows can
be explored without disrupting ongoing operation of the real
system.
n New hardware designs, physical layouts, transportation
systems and … can be tested without committing resources
for their acquisition.
n Time can be compressed or expanded to allow for a speed-
up or slow-down of the phenomenon (clock is self-control).
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Advantages of simulation
n Insight can be obtained about interaction of variables and
important variables to the performance.
n Bottleneck analysis can be performed to discover where work
in process, the system is delayed.
n A simulation study can help in understanding how the
system operates.
n “What if” questions can be answered.
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Disadvantages of simulation
n Model building requires special training.
¨ Vendors of simulation software have been actively
developing packages that contain models that only need
input (templates).
n Simulation results can be difficult to interpret.
n Simulation modeling and analysis can be time
consuming and expensive.
¨ Many simulation software have output-analysis.
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Areas of application
n Manufacturing Applications
n Semiconductor Manufacturing
n Construction Engineering and project management Military
application
n Logistics, Supply chain and distribution application
Transportation modes and Traffic
n Business Process Simulation Health Care
n Automated Material Handling System (AMHS)
¨ Test beds for functional testing of control-system software
n Risk analysis
¨ Insurance, portfolio,...
n Computer Simulation
¨ CPU, Memory,…
n Network simulation
¨ Internet backbone, LAN (Switch/Router), Wireless, PSTN (call center),...
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Systems and System Environment
n A system is defined as a groups of objects that are
joined together in some regular interaction toward
the accomplishment of some purpose.
¨ An automobile factory: Machines, components parts and
workers operate jointly along assembly line
n A system is often affected by changes occurring
outside the system: system environment.
¨ Factory : Arrival orders
n Effect of supply on demand : relationship between factory output
and arrival (activity of system)
¨ Banks: arrival of customers
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Components of a system
n Entity
¨ An object of interest in the system: Machines in factory
n Attribute
¨ The property of an entity: speed, capacity
n Activity
¨ A time period of specified length: welding, stamping
n State
¨ A collection of variables that describe the system in any time: status of machine
(busy, idle, down,…)
n Event
¨ An instantaneous occurrence that might change the state of the system:
breakdown
n Endogenous
¨ Activities and events occurring with the system
n Exogenous
¨ Activities and events occurring with the environment 17
Discrete and Continuous Systems
n A discrete system is one in which the state variables change
only at a discrete set of points in time: Bank example
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Discrete and Continuous Systems (cont.)
n A continuous system is one in which the state variables
change continuously over time: Head of water behind the
dam
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Model of a System
n To study the system
¨ it is sometimes possible to experiments with system
n This is not always possible (bank, factory,…)
n A new system may not yet exist
n Model: construct a conceptual framework that
describes a system
¨ It is necessary to consider those accepts of systems
that affect the problem under investigation
(unnecessary details must remove)
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Types of Models
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Characterizing a Simulation Model
n Deterministic or Stochastic
¨ Does the model contain stochastic components?
¨ Randomness is easy to add to a Discrete Event Simulation
(DES)
n Static or Dynamic
¨ Is time a significant variable?
n Continuous or Discrete
¨ Does the system state evolve continuously or only at
discrete points in time?
¨ Continuous: classical mechanics
¨ Discrete: queuing, inventory, machine shop models
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Discrete-Event Simulation Model
n Stochastic: some state variables are random
n Dynamic: time evolution is important
n Discrete-Event: significant changes occur at
discrete time instances
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Model Taxonomy
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DES Model Development
How to develop a model:
1) Determine the goals and objectives
2) Build a conceptual model
3) Convert into a specification model
4) Convert into a computational model
5) Verify
6) Validate
Typically an iterative process
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Three Model Levels
n Conceptual
¨ Very high level
¨ How comprehensive should the model be?
¨ What are the state variables, which are dynamic, and which are
important?
n Specification
¨ On paper
¨ May involve equations, pseudocode, etc.
¨ How will the model receive input?
n Computational
¨ A computer program
¨ General-purpose PL or simulation language?
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Verification vs. Validation
n Verification
¨ Computational model should be consistent with
specification model
¨ Did we build the model right?
n Validation
¨ Computational model should be consistent with the
system being analyzed
¨ Did we build the right model?
¨ Can an expert distinguish simulation output from
system output?
n Interactive graphics can prove valuable
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Steps in Simulation
Study
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