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I’ll gather an in-depth overview of India’s recent economic progress, key growth
indicators, structural reforms, and future prospects that counter the claim of it being a "dead
economy." I’ll also include expert opinions, comparative global rankings, and emerging
sectors positioning India as a bright spot in the global economy.

I’ll let you know when the analysis is ready.

India’s Economic Progress and Future

Prospects: A ‘Bright Star’ Economy
Introduction
Donald Trump’s recent characterization of India as a “dead economy” has stirred debate, but
the data and expert assessments tell a very different story. Far from being “dead,” India’s
economy has been dynamic and fast-growing in recent years. In fact, multiple indicators
show robust economic health and progress. This report provides a comprehensive analysis of
India’s recent economic performance and future prospects, countering the “dead economy”
claim with evidence of strong growth, rising investments, structural reforms, and emerging
sectors that have led global institutions to call India a “bright spot” in the world economy.
Clear comparisons with other major economies and expert evaluations from the IMF, World
Bank, and rating agencies underscore India’s standing as one of the most vibrant major
economies today.

Strong GDP Growth and Global Standing

India has consistently been one of the fastest-growing large economies in the world over the
past few years. After a sharp pandemic-induced contraction in 2020, India’s GDP rebounded
strongly – growing at 9.1% in FY2021-22 and about 7% in FY2022-23, outpacing most
major economies (the U.S. grew ~2%, EU ~0.5% in 2022-23, for example). The IMF notes
that India’s growth has remained robust, making it “once again the fastest growing major
economy” in the world. Real GDP is projected to expand around 6.5% annually in 2024-25
and 2025-26, sustaining this lead. Such growth far eclipses that of advanced economies and
even most emerging peers, firmly countering any notion of a stagnant or “dead” economy.

This rapid growth has propelled India’s global economic standing upward. In the last decade,
India climbed from being the 11th largest economy to among the top 5 by nominal GDP. It
surpassed the UK to become the 5th largest economy and is widely expected to reach 3rd
largest within the next few years. India’s GDP (about USD 3.5 trillion in 2023) is now nearly
12 times its size in 1995, a pace of expansion that vastly outstrips that of most developed
economies. By comparison, over the same period Japan’s economy actually shrank slightly
(making it, by that metric, a truly “decaying” economy) and Germany’s roughly doubled,
whereas India’s grew 1200%. In relative terms, India’s economy was under 5% the size of
the U.S. economy in 1995, but is nearly 14% of it today – a remarkable catch-up. Such trends
underscore that India is far from economically moribund; it is a growing giant.

Importantly, India’s growth is contributing significantly to global economic momentum.

According to India’s Commerce Ministry and international observers, India now accounts for
roughly 16% of global economic growth – essentially driving about one-sixth of worldwide
growth. The World Bank likewise projects India will remain a key engine of growth, calling
India a “bright spot in the global economy” amid global uncertainty. These achievements in
growth and size firmly dispel the “dead economy” claim and instead highlight India as an
increasingly central player in the world economy.

Booming Investment and Manufacturing Sector

India has also seen robust investment inflows and a manufacturing resurgence, further
evidencing economic vitality. Foreign direct investment (FDI) into India remains strong
and on an uptrend. According to UNCTAD, India saw a 13% rise in FDI inflows recently,
even as FDI to many countries fell, and also notched growth in new greenfield project
announcements – a signal of investor confidence in India’s prospects. Major multinational
companies have been ramping up investments in India as they view it as an attractive
destination for manufacturing and a huge market. This trend is partly driven by India’s
improved business climate and initiatives like Make in India. For example, India has become
a global manufacturing hub for smartphones and electronics: it is now the world’s second-
largest mobile phone producer. Annual mobile phone production soared from only ~5.8
crore units in 2014-15 to 33 crore units in 2023-24, and 99% of phones sold in India are
now made domestically (up from just 26% in 2014). Mobile phone exports correspondingly
exploded from about $0.2 billion in 2014-15 to $15+ billion in 2023-24, a 77-fold increase,
illustrating how India has rapidly built competitive manufacturing capacity in high-tech
sectors.

This manufacturing push extends beyond electronics. India’s automobile industry has also
ascended on the global stage. In 2022, India overtook Japan to become the world’s third-
largest vehicle market, with over 4.25 million vehicles sold (behind only China and the
U.S.). The country is now among the top automotive producers globally, reflecting growing
industrial output. Other industries like pharmaceuticals (where India is the 3rd largest
producer by volume) and steel have also seen strong output and export growth in recent
years. To catalyze manufacturing, the government launched Production-Linked Incentive
(PLI) schemes in 14 sectors, which have attracted nearly ₹1.5 lakh crore in investment
(approx $18 billion) and already generated over ₹13 lakh crore in output. These policies,
combined with India’s large young workforce, are driving a manufacturing revival.
Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal noted that in just over a decade India transformed from
being counted among the “Fragile Five” emerging economies to “the manufacturing hub of
the world” in the making, with steadily rising exports and an innovation-driven industry.

The healthy investment climate is further affirmed by global investor sentiment and ratings.
In 2023, Moody’s affirmed India’s credit rating at investment grade Baa3 with a stable
outlook, explicitly citing the expectation that “India’s economy is likely to continue to grow
rapidly by international standards”. More recently, in August 2024 Moody’s even raised
India’s growth forecasts (to 7.2% for 2024) and noted broad-based momentum, while Fitch
affirmed India’s rating (BBB–) with a stable outlook, underscoring India’s “strong medium-
term growth outlook” and improvements in its external position. Such endorsements by major
rating agencies reflect confidence that India’s economic expansion is durable, not faltering. In
sum, rising FDI, manufacturing expansion, and positive investor sentiment all highlight that
India’s economy is vigorous and attracting global capital, not “dead.”
Technology and Digital Economy Advances
India’s economy has also been powered by remarkable growth in the technology and digital
services sectors, which are now among its brightest areas. The information technology (IT)
and business process outsourcing industry – long a backbone of India’s external earnings –
continues to scale new heights. India’s software and IT services exports reached a record
$200 billion in FY 2023-24, up from $193 billion the previous year. This cements India’s
status as a global leader in IT and digital services, accounting for a large share of the world’s
IT outsourcing. Overall services exports (which include IT, financial services, etc.) have
more than doubled in a decade – from about $152 billion in 2013-14 to over $341 billion in
2023-24 – demonstrating the country’s growing prowess in the digital and knowledge
economy. Indian IT firms and startups are at the forefront of cutting-edge areas like artificial
intelligence, cloud computing, and fintech, while employing millions of skilled workers. This
thriving digital sector not only earns foreign exchange but also drives productivity across the
economy.

India’s domestic digital economy has likewise undergone a revolutionary transformation,

fueling growth and inclusion. The government’s Digital India initiative and the rapid
expansion of internet access have brought hundreds of millions online. One standout
achievement is the Unified Payments Interface (UPI), a real-time mobile payments system
that has transformed commerce and daily life. UPI is now the world’s most-used real-time
payment system, handling over 18 billion transactions per month as of mid-2025. In June
2025 alone, UPI processed transactions worth ₹24 trillion (about $290+ billion) – a 32%
year-on-year jump in volume. This platform allows instant free transfers between any bank
via smartphone, and its adoption has been astronomical. UPI today powers 85% of all digital
payment transactions in India and nearly 50% of all real-time digital payments in the
entire world. In other words, nearly half of the world’s instant digital payments are
happening through an Indian system – a stunning indication of India’s tech leadership and the
scale of its digital market.

This digital leap is underpinned by world-class public digital infrastructure: over a billion
people have biometric Aadhaar IDs enabling paperless KYC, more than 500 million have
Jan Dhan bank accounts, and India leads in low-cost data access, creating a fertile
environment for e-commerce and tech startups. The result has been an explosion of
innovation – India is home to over 100 unicorn startups (billion-dollar tech companies) –
and a surge in efficiency and formalization of the economy (for example, digital payments
have brought more transactions into the formal sector). By leveraging technology, India is not
just catching up but in some aspects leapfrogging: whether it’s digital finance, telecom (India
has the world’s second-largest mobile subscriber base), or IT services, India’s digital
economy is vibrant and expanding. These technology-driven gains are a far cry from a “dead”
economy – on the contrary, they signal a dynamic, future-ready economic landscape.

Structural Reforms Fueling Growth

India’s economic dynamism has been reinforced by a series of structural reforms and policy
initiatives undertaken in the past decade. These reforms have addressed long-standing
bottlenecks, modernized India’s economic framework, and improved its growth potential:
 Introduction of GST (Goods and Services Tax) – In 2017, India implemented a
nationwide GST, unifying the country into a single market by replacing a tangle of
state and local taxes with one harmonized tax system. GST has streamlined logistics
and compliance, improved tax collection, and broadened the tax base. Tax revenues
have seen robust growth under GST, reflecting higher compliance and economic
formalization. In fact, GST collections have been hitting record highs – the fiscal year
2024-25 saw gross GST revenue of ₹22.1 lakh crore, double the amount collected
just five years earlier. Monthly GST collections now average about ₹1.8 lakh crore
(~$22 billion), with April 2025 setting an all-time monthly record of ₹2.37 lakh crore.
Such figures indicate a healthier fiscal position and a more “alive” economy with
growing consumption. As an IMF assessment noted, GST has made indirect taxation
more efficient and transparent, strengthening India’s fiscal footing.
 Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) – Enacted in 2016, the IBC created India’s
first unified bankruptcy law. It has dramatically improved resolution of bad debts and
the ease of exit for failing businesses. By enforcing time-bound insolvency
proceedings, the IBC has helped banks clean up non-performing loans (bank NPA
ratios are now at multi-year lows) and recycled capital to more productive uses. This
reform improved India’s credit culture and was lauded by the World Bank and rating
agencies for reducing historical impediments to investment.
 Labor Law Modernization – India undertook a major simplification of its archaic
labor laws by codifying 29 central labor laws into 4 modern Labor Codes (on wages,
social security, industrial relations, and occupational safety). Passed in 2019-2020,
these new codes (awaiting full implementation) aim to make compliance easier for
businesses while extending protections like minimum wages and social security to
more workers. The streamlined labor laws are expected to boost formal job creation
and foreign investment in manufacturing by providing greater flexibility and clarity.
In essence, this addresses a structural issue that had branded India’s labor market as
too rigid.
 Digital Governance and Financial Inclusion – The government’s push for digital
public services, direct benefit transfers (sending subsidies/welfare directly to bank
accounts), and universal financial access has been transformative. Programs like Jan
Dhan Yojana (over 500 million bank accounts opened for the unbanked), Aadhaar
(biometric ID for 1.3 billion people), and the use of UPI and mobile apps for
everything from paying taxes to receiving pensions have greatly reduced leakages and
improved efficiency. This digital infrastructure not only boosts GDP by increasing
formal economic activity, but also exemplifies how India is innovating in governance.
Notably, the IMF has praised India’s “strong foundation in digital public
infrastructure” as a key factor supporting sustained growth and social welfare gains.
 Other Key Reforms – India also cut corporate tax rates significantly in 2019 (to
25%, and 15% for new manufacturing firms) to spur investment. It liberalized sectors
like mining, defense and space for private participation. The “Make in India”
campaign and productivity-linked incentives encourage domestic production in
electronics, solar PV, pharmaceuticals and more. Trade infrastructure and ease-of-
doing-business improvements (India jumped up the World Bank ease of doing
business rankings before the index was discontinued) have reduced transaction costs.
And ambitious schemes like PM Gati Shakti – a national masterplan for integrated
infrastructure development – are addressing long-term logistics and connectivity
challenges. Collectively, these structural initiatives have laid the groundwork for
higher long-term growth by improving efficiency, encouraging investment, and
integrating India more deeply into global value chains.
In summary, India has undertaken transformative reforms that have strengthened economic
fundamentals. The results can be seen in improved tax compliance, healthier banks, rising
infrastructure investment, and a better business climate – hardly characteristics of a “dead”
economy. On the contrary, these reforms have made India’s economy more resilient and
future-ready, a fact noted by the IMF which urges continued reforms to “realize India’s
ambition of becoming an advanced economy by 2047”.

Global Recognition and Investor Confidence

India’s robust performance has gained widespread recognition from international institutions
and market observers, undermining any narrative of economic demise. The International
Monetary Fund (IMF), in its 2025 Article IV consultation, commended India’s “prudent
macroeconomic policies and reforms” for making the economy resilient and reaffirmed India
as the world’s fastest-growing major economy. The IMF highlighted India’s strong
macroeconomic stability – inflation back within the target range, a contained current account
deficit thanks to booming service exports, and financial sector resilience – as key positives. It
also pointed out India’s advances in digital infrastructure and targeted social spending as
supportive of inclusive growth going forward. In the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook,
India’s growth forecast (~6%–6.5%) is well above that of any other large economy, and India
alone is expected to account for a sizable portion of global growth in the next few years.

The World Bank echoes this optimism. The World Bank’s India director,
Auguste Tano Kouamé, recently stated that “India has a strong domestic economy and
remains a bright spot in the global economy,” even as global conditions remain uncertain.
The Bank projects India will sustain growth around 6–6.5% in the medium term, and notes
that India’s relatively low trade dependency (exports around 20-22% of GDP) insulates it
somewhat from global downturns. This resilience is why India is seen as an anchor of growth
for the “Global South,” alongside the U.S., China, and EU for the world at large. In June
2025, a UN mid-year report (World Economic Situation and Prospects) explicitly compared
major economies and concluded that India will remain the fastest-growing – projecting
India’s GDP to grow 6.3%, far outpacing China (4.6%), the U.S. (1.6%), the Euro area
(1.0%), and a contraction in Germany. Such comparisons starkly illustrate India’s
outperformance: while much of the developed world faces near-stagnation or recession risks,
India is leading global growth charts. Little wonder, then, that global analysts refer to India as
a rare “bright star” on the economic horizon.

Global investors have taken notice. Major investment banks and consultancies now tout India
as one of the most attractive investment destinations. For instance, Morgan Stanley calls
India’s economy “a bright spot set to deliver the world’s highest growth rate over the next
two years,” driven by favorable demographics and government policy shifts. They project
India will likely become the world’s fourth-largest economy by 2025 (potentially
overtaking Germany) and even the third-largest by 2027-28 if current trends hold. Morgan
Stanley’s strategists note that India is in the midst of a “decade of record growth”
underpinned by improving macro stability, and is entering a capital expenditure upcycle with
strong corporate earnings prospects. Similarly, other analysts have dubbed India the “next
China” in terms of its potential to drive global demand and have highlighted India’s reform-
driven productivity gains as a key differentiator.

Furthermore, international rating agencies remain confident in India’s trajectory. As

mentioned, Fitch Ratings affirmed India’s rating with a stable outlook, expecting India’s
high growth to gradually lift per capita income and other structural metrics. S&P likewise
rates India at BBB- (investment grade) with a positive outlook, indicating a potential future
upgrade if growth and fiscal metrics keep improving. These agencies explicitly cite India’s
“solid external finances”, large forex reserves, and stable banking system as strengths
supporting its credit profile. The positive sentiment from such institutions underscores that
experts see India’s economy as very much alive and thriving.

In sum, the weight of global expert opinion – from the IMF and World Bank to UN forecasts
and market analysts – is that India is currently one of the strongest performing economies.
Far from being written off, India is being written up as a pillar of global growth. This
consensus among economists and investors stands in stark contrast to the “dead economy”
remark, and provides authoritative validation of India’s economic vitality and promising
outlook.

Emerging Growth Drivers: Renewables, Digital Services,

and Infrastructure
Key sectors of India’s economy are emerging as new growth drivers, positioning India for
sustained expansion and modern development. Among these, renewable energy, digital
services, and infrastructure development stand out for their recent strides and future
potential:

 Renewable Energy Revolution: India is undergoing a rapid clean energy

transformation, which bolsters long-term growth by enhancing energy security and
creating green jobs. India has set ambitious targets (500 GW of non-fossil electric
capacity by 2030) and is already one of the world’s top renewable energy producers.
Installation of solar and wind power has accelerated dramatically – solar capacity, for
example, grew from virtually negligible a decade ago to over 70 GW in 2023. The
International Energy Agency (IEA) observes that “renewable electricity is growing
at a faster rate in India than in any other major economy,” with new capacity
additions on track to double by 2026. India has achieved its Paris commitment of
40% power capacity from non-fossil sources almost 9 years ahead of schedule. It is
now the world’s third-largest market for solar power and among the largest for wind.
This green energy boom not only contributes to GDP (through manufacturing of solar
panels, wind turbines, etc.) but also attracts significant investment – both domestic
and foreign – into India’s energy sector. Additionally, India is positioning itself as a
leader in emerging areas like green hydrogen and battery storage, which could create
new industries and export opportunities in the coming years. The rapid growth of
renewables exemplifies an economy charging ahead into the future, not one
languishing in decline.
 Digital Services and Innovation: Building on its IT success, India’s digital services
sector continues to expand into new domains, driving exports and productivity gains.
Beyond traditional IT outsourcing, India has become a global hub for digital services
ranging from software-as-a-service (SaaS) to online education, telemedicine, and
cloud services. Indian startups and tech firms are innovating in e-commerce, online
payments (with UPI as discussed), and digital content, catering to a massive domestic
market and increasingly exporting these services abroad. Notably, India ranks among
the top countries in the export of digitally delivered services (such as software,
consulting, R&D services), reflecting its skilled workforce and competitive tech
 industry. According to a Visual Capitalist analysis, India’s digital service exports
topped $250 billion in 2023, growing ~17% annually, making India one of the
world’s largest digital exporters. This burgeoning digital economy, supported by the
government’s push for a $1 trillion digital economy by 2025, is a major engine of
growth. It creates high-paying jobs, attracts venture capital (India is second only to
the US and China in venture-funded unicorns), and improves efficiency across sectors
through digitalization. From the widespread use of AI and automation in industry to
the growth of IT-enabled services in smaller cities, digitalization is permeating India’s
economy. This sector’s dynamism is the antithesis of an economic downturn – it
showcases creativity, entrepreneurship, and forward momentum.
 Infrastructure Development Boom: India is investing heavily in infrastructure,
which not only provides a short-term stimulus but also raises long-term productivity.
Over the past few years, the government has substantially ramped up capital
expenditure on roads, railways, ports, airports, and urban infrastructure. In FY 2023-
24, public infrastructure spending exceeded ₹10 lakh crore (~$120 billion),
approximately 3.3% of GDP – an exponential rise compared to a decade ago. This
focus has yielded visible results. Highway construction has nearly tripled in pace –
from building ~12 km of national highways per day in 2014 to about 34 km per day
in 2023-24. India’s highway network expanded to 146,000 km by 2024 (up 60% since
2014), including over 2,000 km of new expressways where none existed before. The
railway sector is also undergoing modernization with new high-speed rail projects
and record electrification of tracks. In aviation, India has doubled the number of
airports from 74 in 2014 to 157 operational airports in 2024, making it the 3rd largest
domestic aviation market globally. Massive port capacity expansions and dedicated
freight corridors are improving logistics. These infrastructure upgrades enhance
connectivity, reduce business costs, and create construction jobs, thus fueling growth.
The World Bank’s Logistics Performance Index for 2023 saw India jump to 38th rank
(from 54th in 2014), reflecting these improvements. Looking ahead, programs like
PM Gati Shakti and the National Infrastructure Pipeline (over $1.4 trillion of
projects through 2025) aim to sustain this infrastructure boom. A country rigorously
building for the future – highways, railways, smart cities, digital fiber networks – is
clearly one that is alive and progressing.

These emerging sectors highlight the multifaceted nature of India’s growth story. Renewable
energy investments are greening the economy and reducing costs, digital services are
boosting incomes and exports, and infrastructure development is unlocking efficiency and
new markets. Crucially, they also show India’s commitment to sustainable and inclusive
growth. For instance, cleaner energy addresses climate goals; digital services enable small
businesses and rural users to participate in the economy; infrastructure connects remote areas
and less-developed states to mainstream growth. Each of these fronts indicates momentum
and future potential, reinforcing that India’s economy is not only far from “dead,” but is in
fact reinventing itself for the 21st century.

Conclusion
In light of the evidence, the claim that India is a “dead economy” is clearly unfounded. India
today is one of the world’s fastest growing economies, with GDP expanding at 6–7%
annually – the highest among major nations – and its size and global role steadily rising. Key
indicators of vitality abound: record-high GDP and export figures, surging FDI inflows, and a
manufacturing sector attracting global businesses and scaling up exports at unprecedented
rates (such as the 77-fold jump in phone exports). Structural reforms like the GST and digital
initiatives have revitalized the economic framework, leading to improved compliance, higher
revenue, and greater financial inclusion. The technology and services sectors are booming –
from IT to fintech – cementing India’s status as a digital powerhouse with hundreds of
millions lifted into the formal economy. Meanwhile, massive investments in infrastructure
and renewable energy are laying the foundation for sustainable long-term growth.

Global experts concur that India is a bright spot in a slowing world. The IMF, World Bank,
and UN all project India will remain the fastest-growing major economy in the foreseeable
future, contributing an outsize share of global growth. Major rating agencies and investors
maintain confidence in India’s economic management and future, with stable credit ratings
and bullish forecasts. Of course, challenges persist – such as the need to create more jobs for
a young population, further improve manufacturing competitiveness, and reduce inequality –
but these are acknowledged areas for improvement in an otherwise dynamic economy,
not symptoms of a “dead” one. On balance, India’s trajectory is one of resilience and
resurgence. The data and developments highlighted in this report demonstrate that India has
transformed from a fragile economy a decade ago into a “bright star” of global growth. Far
from being moribund, India’s economy is very much alive – alive and kicking, as one might
say – and poised to play an increasingly pivotal role on the world stage in the years ahead.

Sources: Recent data and assessments have been drawn from the International Monetary
Fund, World Bank, United Nations reports, Government of India releases, and credible news
analyses (Indian Express, NDTV, Reuters, Economic Times) to ensure an up-to-date and
accurate evaluation of India’s economic condition and outlook, among others, as cited above.
The overwhelming consensus of these sources is that India is a rapidly growing, reforming
economy – a conclusion that robustly contradicts the “dead economy” claim and instead
affirms India’s status as one of the world’s most promising economic success stories.