Probability
Probability: If there are n mutually exclusive, equally likely and exhaustive outcomes of an experiment and
if m of these outcomes are favorable to an event A, then the probability of the event A which is
m
denoted by P(A) is defined by P( A) .
n
Example: A card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards. Find the probability that it is red.
Solution: Let A be the event of drawing a red card. Here, m 26 and n 52 , then the required
26 1
probability is P ( A) .
52 2
Sample Space: The collection or totality of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is called sample
space. It is usually denoted by S.
Example: If we toss a coin the sample space is S {H , T } .
Sample Point: An element of the sample space is called a sample point. If we tossing a coin, we get two
sample point H and T.
Mutually exclusive event: If A and B are two events, then they are said to be mutually exclusive if
A B , that is two events are said to be mutually exclusive, if they have no common points.
Additive Law of Probability:
Statement: Let A and B be two events in a sample space S then the additive law of probability:
(i) P ( A B ) P ( A) P ( B ) P ( A B ) if A and B are not mutually exclusive events.
(ii) P ( A B ) P ( A) P ( B ) if A and B are mutually exclusive events.
Proof: Let, S be the sample space and
Number of elements in sample space is n( s ) n
A B
Number of elements in favor of A is n( A) na
Number of elements in favor of B is n( B) nb
Number of elements in favor of both is n( A B) nab
na n n
P( A) , P ( B) b and P ( A B) ab
n n n S
We have from the diagram
A B =
or, A B ( A B ) ( A B) ( A B)
or, n ( A B) n ( A B ) n ( A B) n ( A B)
n( A) n( A B) n( A B) n( B ) n( A B)
n( A) n( B) n( A B)
na nb nab
n( A B) na nb nab
Now, P ( A B)
n( S ) n
n a nb n ab
n n n
P ( A B ) P ( A) P ( B ) P ( A B ) Proved (i)
If A and B are mutually exclusive events then P A B P( ) 0
P ( A B ) P ( A) P ( B ) Proved (ii)
Theorem: For three events A, B and C, prove that
P( A B C) P( A) P(B) P(C) P( A B) P(B C) P( A C) P( A B C)
or, P( A B C) P( A) P(B) P(C) P( AB) P(BC) P( AC) P( ABC)
Proof: P( A B C) P( A D) where, D B C
= P( A) P(D) P( A D)
= P( A) P(B C) P( A (B C))
= P( A) P(B) P(C) P(B C) P((A B) ( A C))
= P( A) P(B) P(C) P(B C) P( A B) P( A C) P( A B C)
= P( A) P(B) P(C) P( AB) P(BC) P( AC) P( ABC) Proved.
Theorem: State and prove the additive law of probability and extend the results for n events
Statement: Let A and B be two events in a sample space S then the additive law of probability:
(i) P ( A B ) P ( A) P ( B ) P ( A B ) if A and B are not mutually exclusive events.
(ii) P ( A B ) P ( A) P ( B ) if A and B are mutually exclusive events.
Proof: Let, S be the sample space and
Number of elements in sample space is n( s ) n
A B
Number of elements in favor of A is n( A) na
Number of elements in favor of B is n( B) nb
Number of elements in favor of both is n( A B) nab
na n n
P( A) , P ( B) b and P ( A B) ab
n n n S
We have from the diagram
A B =
or, A B ( A B ) ( A B) ( A B)
or, n ( A B) n ( A B ) n ( A B) n ( A B)
n( A) n( A B ) n( A B ) n( B ) n( A B )
n( A) n( B ) n( A B )
2
na nb nab
n( A B) na nb nab
Now, P ( A B)
n( S ) n
n a nb n ab
n n n
P( A B ) P( A) P( B ) P( A B) Proved (i)
If A and B are mutually exclusive events then P A B P( ) 0
P ( A B ) P ( A) P ( B ) Proved (ii)
Similarly, we can prove the additive law of probability for three events A 1, A2 and A3 as follows:
P( A1 A2 A3 ) P( A1 D) where, D A2 A3
= P( A1 ) P(D) P( A1D)
= P( A1 ) P( A2 A3 ) P( A1 ( A2 A3 ))
= P( A1 ) P( A2 ) P( A3 ) P( A2 A3 ) P( A1 A2 A1 A3 )
= P( A1 ) P( A2 ) P( A3 ) P( A2 A3 ) P( A1 A2 ) P( A1 A3 ) P( A1 A2 A3 )
= P( A1 ) P( A2 ) P( A3 ) P( A1 A2 ) P( A2 A3 ) P( A1 A3 ) P( A1 A2 A3 )
3 3 3
= P( Ai ) P( Ai Aj ) (1)31 P( A1 A2 A3 )
i1 i j 2
Therefore, the additive law of probability for four events A1, A2 , A3 and A4 as follows:
P( A1 A2 A3 A4 ) P( A1 D) where, D A2 A3 A4
= P( A1 ) P(D) P( A1D)
= P( A1 ) P( A2 A3 A4 ) P( A1 ( A2 A3 A4 ))
= P( A1 ) P( A2 ) P( A3 ) P( A4 ) P( A2 A3 ) P( A3 A4 ) P( A2 A4 ) P( A2 A3 A4 ) P( A1 A2 A1 A3 A1 A4 )
P( A1 ) P( A2 ) P( A3 ) P( A4 ) P( A2 A3 ) P( A3 A4 ) P( A2 A4 ) P( A2 A3 A4 )
P( A1 A2 ) P( A1 A3 ) P( A1 A4 ) P( A1 A2 A3 ) P( A1 A3 A4 ) P( A1 A2 A4 ) P( A1 A2 A3 A4 )
P( A1 ) P( A2 ) P( A3 ) P( A4 ) P( A1 A2 ) P( A1 A3 ) P( A1 A4 ) P( A2 A3 ) P( A2 A4 ) P( A3 A4 )
P( A1 A2 A3 ) P( A1 A2 A4 ) P( A1 A3 A4 ) P( A2 A3 A4 ) P( A1 A2 A3 A4 )
4 4 4 4 4 4 4
P Ai P( Ai ) P( Ai Aj ) P( Ai Aj Ak ) (1)41 P( A1 A2 A3 A4 )
i1 i1 i j 2 i j k 3
Proceeding in this way we obtain the additive law of probability for n events A1, A2, A3, .........., An as follows:
n n n n n n n
P Ai P( Ai ) P( Ai Aj ) P( Ai Aj Ak ) (1) n1 P( A1 A2 A3 An ) Proved.
i1 i1 i j 2 i j k 3
Which is the general form.
3
Theorem: State and prove the multiplication law/ Compound law of probability.
Statement: If A and B be two joint event in a sample space S then the multiplication law of probability is
P ( AB) P ( A) P ( B \ A), P ( A) 0.
P ( B ) P ( A \ B ), P ( B ) 0.
where, P ( B \ A), denote the conditional probability of the event B given that A has already happened
and similarly P ( A \ B ).
Proof: Let, S be the sample space and
Number of elements in sample space is n( s ) n
Number of elements in favor of A is n( A) na
Number of elements in favor of B is n( B) nb
Number of elements in favor of both is n( AB) nab
na n n
P( A) , P ( B) b and P( AB) ab
n n n
The conditional event A given B contain the cases from the total number of cases of the event B.
n( AB ) nab
P( A \ B )
n( B ) nb
n( AB) nab
Similarly, P( B \ A)
n( A) na
n( AB ) nab
Now, P( AB)
n( S ) n
n n
ab . a
na n
P( AB) P( B / A) P( A) P( A) P( B / A), P( A) 0.
Similarly, P ( AB ) P ( B ) P ( A / B ), P ( B ) 0. Proved.
Example 1. Two dice, one green and the other red are thrown. Let A be the event that the sum of the points
on the faces shown is odd and B be the event that at least one face (number `1’):
(a)Describe the (i)complete sample space (ii)events A, B, B , A B, A B, A B and find their probabilities.
(b) Find the probabilities of the events: (i) A B , (ii) A B , (iii) A B , (iv) A B , (v) A B ,
(vi) A B , (vii) A B , (viii) A ( A B) , (ix) A ( A B ) , (x) A / B , B / A , (xi) A / B , B / A
Solution: (a) (i) complete sample space S: (1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6),
(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6),
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6),
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6),
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6),
(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)
4
The ordered pair refers to the elementary events that first elements are green die and second elements
are red die. Total sample points is 36.
(ii) A= The event that the sum of the points on the faces shown is odd:
(1,2), (1,4), (1,6), (2,1), (2,3), (2,5), (3,2), (3,4), (3,6), (4,1), (4,3), (4,5), (5,2), (5,4), (5,6), (6,1), (6,3), (6,5)
n( A) 18 1
total sample point, n(A)=18 and therefore P( A) Ans.
n( S ) 36 2
B=The event of at least one face is 1: (1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6), (2,1), (3,1), (4,1), (5,1), (6,1)
n( B) 11
total sample point, n(B)=11 and therefore P( B ) Ans.
n( S ) 36
B The event that each of the face obtained is not one face:
(2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6),
(5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)
total sample point, n B 25 and therefore P ( B )
n( B ) 25
Ans.
n( S ) 36
A B (1,2), (1,4), (1,6), (2,1), (2,3), (2,5), (3,2), (3,4), (3,6), (4,1), (4,3), (4,5), (5,2), (5,4), (5,6), (6,1), (6,3), (6,5)
(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6), (2,1), (3,1), (4,1), (5,1), (6,1)
= (1,2), (1,4), (1,6), (2,1), (4,1), (6,1)
6 1
total sample point, n A B 6 and therefore P( A B) Ans.
36 6
A B (1,2), (1,4), (1,6), (2,1), (2,3), (2,5), (3,2), (3,4), (3,6), (4,1), (4,3), (4,5), (5,2), (5,4), (5,6), (6,1), (6,3), (6,5)
(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6), (2,1), (3,1), (4,1), (5,1), (6,1)
(1,2), (1,4), (1,6), (2,1), (2,3), (2,5), (3,2), (3,4), (3,6), (4,1), (4,3), (4,5), (5,2), (5,4), (5,6), (6,1), (6,3), (6,5),
=
(1,1), (1,3), (1,5), (3,1), (5,1)
23
total sample point, n A B 23 and therefore P ( A B) Ans.
36
A B (1,2), (1,4), (1,6), (2,1), (2,3), (2,5), (3,2), (3,4), (3,6), (4,1), (4,3), (4,5), (5,2), (5,4), (5,6), (6,1), (6,3), (6,5)
(2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6),
(5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)
= (2,3), (2,5), (3,2), (3,4), (3,6), (4,3), (4,5), (5,2), (5,4), (5,6), (6,3), (6,5)
total sample point, n A B 12 and therefore P ( A B )
12 1
Ans
36 3
(b)
(i) P( A B ) P A B 1 P ( A B) 1
1 5
Ans.
6 6
(ii) P ( A B ) P A B 1 P( A B) 1
23 13
Ans.
36 36
18 6 12 1
(iii) P ( A B ) P( A) P ( A B) Ans.
36 36 36 3
11 6 5
(iv) P( A B) P( B) P( A B) Ans.
36 36 36
5
(v) P A B 1 P ( A B ) 1
1 5
6 6
Ans.
18 11 5 2
(vi) P ( A B ) P ( A ) P ( B ) P ( A B ) 1 Ans.
36 36 36 3
(vii) P A B 1 P( A B) 1
23 13
36 36
Ans.
Ans. A A
5
(viii) P ( A ( A B )) P(( A A) ( A B )) P( A B)
36
Ans. A A
18 5 23
(ix) P ( A ( A B )) P ( A) P( A B ) P ( A A B) 0
36 36 36
6
P( A B) 6
(x) P ( A / B) 36 Ans.
P( B) 11 11
36
6
P( A B) 1
P ( B / A) 36 Ans.
P ( A) 18 3
36
13
P( A B ) 13
(xi) P ( A / B ) 36 Ans.
P(B ) 25 25
36
13
P( A B ) 13
P(B / A ) 36 Ans.
P( A ) 18 18
36
Example 2. Find the probability of not getting a 7 or 11 total on either of two tosses of a pair of fair dice.
Solution: The sample space S: (1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6),
(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6),
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6),
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6),
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6),
(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)
The ordered pair refers to the elementary events that first elements are comes from first die and second
elements are comes from 2nd die. Total sample points are 36.
Let, A= The event that the sum of the points on the faces shown is 7 or 11:
(1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (5,6), (6,1), (6,5)
n( A) 8 2
Total sample point, n(A)=8 and P ( A)
n( S ) 36 9
Hence the required probability (probability of the sum of the points on the faces shown is not 7 or 11) is
2 7
P ( A) 1 Ans.
9 9
H.W.Example 3. Two dice, one green and the other red are thrown. Let A be the event that the first face
shows odd, B be the event that second die shows odd and C be the event that difference of dots of two dice be
zero. (a) Describe the (i) Complete sample space (ii) Events A, B, C , B , A B, A B, A B and find their
probabilities. (b) Find the probabilities of the events: (i) A , (ii) C , (iii) A B , (iv) A B , (v) A B ,
(vi) A / B , B/A.
