Models of Traffic Flow
Highway and Railway Engineering
Toll
Gate 1
Introduction
◼ Macroscopic relationships and analyses
are very valuable, but
◼ A considerable amount of traffic
analysis occurs at the microscopic
level
◼ In particular, we often are interested in
the elapsed time between the
arrival of successive vehicles (i.e.,
time headway)
Toll
Gate 1
Introduction
◼ The simplest approach to modeling vehicle
arrivals is to assume a uniform spacing
◼ This results in a deterministic, uniform arrival
pattern—in other words, there is a constant
time headway between all vehicles
◼ However, this assumption is usually
unrealistic, as vehicle arrivals typically follow
a random process
◼ Thus, a model that represents a random
arrival process is usually needed
Introduction
◼ For a sequence of events to be considered
truly random, two conditions must be met:
1. Any point in time is as likely as any other
for an event to occur (e.g., vehicle arrival)
2. The occurrence of an event does not affect
the probability of the occurrence of
another event (e.g., the arrival of one vehicle
at a point in time does not make the arrival of
the next vehicle within a certain time period any
more or less likely)
Introduction
◼ The Poisson distribution:
◼ Is a discrete (as opposed to continuous)
distribution
◼ Is commonly referred to as a ‘counting
distribution’
◼ Represents the count distribution of
random events
Poisson distribution
◼ The assumption of Poisson distributed
vehicle arrivals also implies a
distribution of the time intervals
between the arrivals of successive
vehicles (i.e., time headway)
Poisson distribution
Equation for Poisson dist. is:
− t
(t ) e
n
P ( n) = (Eq. 5.23)
n!
◼ P (n) = probability of exactly n vehicles arriving
in a time interval t
◼ = average arrival rate (veh/unit time)
◼ n = # of vehicles arriving in a specific time
interval
◼ t = selected time interval (duration of each
counting period (unit time))
Example 1
An observer counts 360 veh/h at a specific
highway location. Assuming that the arrival
of vehicles at this highway location is
Poisson distributed, estimate the
probabilities of having 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 or
more vehicles arriving over a 20-second time
interval.
Solution:
The average arrival
rate, λ, is 360 veh/h, or
0.1 vehicles per second
(veh/s).
The probabilities of having exactly 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4
vehicles arrive are
Solution:
The average arrival
rate, λ, is 360 veh/h, or
0.1 vehicles per second
(veh/s).
For five or more vehicles,
Solution:
Example 2
Traffic data are collected in 60-second
intervals at a specific highway location as
shown in Table 5.1. Assuming the traffic
arrivals are Poisson distributed and continue
at the same rate as that observed in the 15
time periods shown, what is the probability
that six or more vehicles will arrive in each
of the next three 60-second time intervals
(12:15 P.M. to 12:16 P.M., 12:16 P.M. to
12:17 P.M., and 12:17 P.M. to 12:18 P.M.)?
Example 2
Solution:
Table 5.1 shows that a total of 101 vehicles arrive in the 15-
minute period from 12:00 P.M. to 12:15 P.M. Thus, the average
arrival rate, λ, is 0.112 veh/s (101/900).
6.733 = 0.112 veh/sec (60sec)
The probability that six or more vehicles will
arrive in three successive time intervals (t1,
t2, and t3) is simply the product of
probabilities
Queuing Theory
◼ Why is examination of queuing
important?
◼ Because queuing leads to delay
◼ Motorists do not like delay
◼ Major implications for design
purposes
◼ Generally have to compromise between
accommodation of queuing and
construction costs
The Basic Queuing Process
◼ Customers requiring service are generated
over time by an input source
◼ These customers enter the queuing system
and join a queue
◼ At certain times, a member of the queue is
selected for service by some rule known as
the queue discipline.
◼ The required service is then performed for
the customer by the service mechanism,
after which the customer leaves the queuing
system.
Queuing Model Components
◼ Demand Population/Arrival Pattern
◼ Queue Discipline
◼ Service Mechanism/Departure Pattern
◼ Number of Departure Channels
Demand Population/
Arrival Pattern
◼ We discussed two possible patterns:
◼ Equal time headways
◼ Based on uniform distribution
◼ Exponentially distributed time headways
◼ Based on Poisson distribution
Queue Disciplines
◼ Refers to the order in which members
of the queue are selected for service
◼ FIFO – first-in first-out
◼ First customer to arrive is first to depart
◼ LIFO – last-in first-out
◼ Last customer into queue is first to leave
◼ SIRO – service in random order
◼ Priority
◼ Customers get served in order of priority
(highest to lowest)
Service Mechanism/
Departure Pattern
◼ Time elapsed from start to finish of service is
called service time
◼ Statistical distribution of service times for each
server must be specified
◼ Might also be customer specific
◼ Again, potential patterns:
◼ Equal time headways
◼ Based on uniform distribution
◼ Exponentially distributed time headways
◼ Based on Poisson distribution
◼ Other
Number of Servers/Departure
Channels
◼ Single channel/server
◼ One server for all queued customers
◼ Multiple channel/server
◼ Finite number of “identical” servers
operating in a parallel configuration
◼ Infinite-server
◼ A server for every customer
◼ Don’t we wish!
Non-traffic queuing examples
◼ Single channel/server
◼ Wendy’s, ATM
◼ Fast-food drive through
◼ Multiple channel/server (one arrival channel)
◼ Bank teller
◼ Airport check-in counter
◼ Burger King
◼ Multiple channel/server (multiple arrival channels)
◼ Grocery/retail store (Publix, Lowe’s, Wal-Mart)
◼ McDonald’s
Examples of different queue
disciplines (non-traffic)
◼ FIFO
◼ Bank teller line, Wendy’s
◼ LIFO
◼ Elevator
◼ Cafeteria trays
◼ SIRO
◼ Teacher calling on raised hands
Examples of different queue
disciplines (non-traffic)
◼ Priority
◼ Sinking ship – women and children first
◼ Hospital waiting room – most injured first
◼ Getting bumped by “more important”
people (fancy restaurant)
Traffic Queuing Examples
◼ Left-turn bay length
◼ Number of approach lanes at a signal
controlled intersection
◼ Number of toll plaza booths
◼ Number of border crossing booths
Examples of different queue
disciplines (traffic)
◼ FIFO
◼ Traffic signal
◼ LIFO
◼ Queue departure behind bus
◼ Priority
◼ AWSC intersections
◼ Individual approaches are FIFO
◼ Between approaches, there is a priority
◼ Vehicle on right goes first
Parallel, Serial Queue Systems
◼ Parallel
◼ Toll booths
◼ Retail store checkout
◼ Some fast food restaurants
◼ Serial
◼ Cafeteria across from Weil
◼ Opening night of a movie
◼ Ticket line, line to get into theater, line for
snacks
Traffic Queuing Model
Components
◼ Arrival Pattern
◼ Service/Departure Pattern
◼ Number of Departure Channels
◼ Queue discipline
Queuing Model Notation
◼ Arrival pattern/departure pattern/# of
departure channels
◼ alpha/alpha / #
◼ D for uniform, deterministic
◼ M for exponential, stochastic
◼ e.g., D/D/1, M/M/2
Statistics of Interest
◼ Average queue length
◼ Average number in system
◼ Maximum queue length
◼ Average waiting time in queue
◼ Average time in system
The End
