Chapter 18
Chapter 18
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Excerpt is Chapter 27 of Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Sixth Edition, by John C. Hull.
205
In May 2012, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
shortfall is J.l + 2.338CJ'.4 (See Problem 18.2.) For non-normal
issued a consultative document proposing major revisions to
distributions, they are not equivalent. When the loss distribution
the way regulatory capital for market risk is calculated. This is
has a heavier tail than a normal distribution, the 97.5% ES can
referred to as the "Fundamental Review of the Trading Book"
be considerably greater than the 99% VaR.
(FRTB).1 The Basel Committee then followed its usual process
of requesting comments from banks, revising the proposals, Under FRTB, the 10-day time horizon used in Basel I and Basel
2
and carrying out Quantitative Impact Studies (QISs). The final 11.5 is changed to reflect the liquidity of the market variable
version of the rules was published by the Basel Committee in being considered. FRTB considers changes to market variables
3
January 2019. The internationally agreed implementation date that would take place (in stressed market conditions) over peri
is January 2023, but many jurisdictions indicated that they will ods of time reflecting their liquidity. The changes are referred
be a year or two later than that. to as shocks. The market variables are referred to as risk factors.
The periods of time considered are referred to as liquidity hori
FRTB's approach to determining capital for market risk is zons. Five different liquidity horizons are specified: 10 days, 20
much more complex than the approaches previously used by days, 40 days, 60 days, and 120 days. The allocation of risk fac
regula tors. The purpose of this chapter is to outline its main tors to these liquidity horizons is indicated in Table 18.1.
features.
FRTB specifies both a standardized approach and an inter-
nal models approach for calculating market risk capital. Even
18.1 BACKGROUND
when banks have been approved to use the internal models
The Basel I calculations of market risk capital were based on a approach, they are required by regulators to calculate required
value at risk (VaR) calculated for a 10-day horizon with a 99% capital under both approaches. This is consistent with the Basel
confidence level. The VaR was "current" in the sense that cal Committee's plans to use standardized approaches to provide
culations made on a particular day were based on the behavior a floor for capital requirements. As discussed in Section 26.4,
of market variables during an immediately preceding period of in December 2017, the Basel Committee announced a move to
time (typically, one to four years). Basel 11.5 required banks to a situation where total required capital is at least 72.5% of
calculate a "stressed VaR" measure in addition to the current that given by standardized approaches. It will achieve this by
measure. As explained in Sections 12.1 and 26.1, this is VaR 2028 with a five-year phase-in period. These changes are a
where calculations are based on the behavior of market vari culmina tion of a trend by the Basel Committee since the
ables during a 250-day period of stressed market conditions. 2008 crisis to place less reliance on internal models and to
To determine the stressed period, banks were required to go use standardized models to provide a floor for capital
back through time searching for a 250-day period where the requirements.
observed movements in market variables would lead to signifi
A difference between FRTB and previous market risk regulatory
cant financial stress for the current portfolio.
requirements is that most calculations are carried out at the
FRTB changes the measure used for determining market risk trading desk level. Furthermore, permission to use the internal
capital. Instead of VaR with a 99% confidence level, it uses models approach is granted on a desk-by-desk basis. Therefore
expected shortfall (ES) with a 97.5% confidence level. The mea it is possible that, at a particular point in time, a bank's foreign
sure is actually stressed ES with a 97.5% confidence. This means currency trading desk has permission to use the internal models
that, as in the case of stressed VaR, calculations are based on approach while the equity trading desk does not.
the way market variables have been observed to move during
In earlier chapters, we saw how the ways in which capital is
stressed market conditions.
calculated for the trading book and the banking book are quite
For normal distributions, VaR with a 99% confidence and ES with different. This potentially gives rise to regulatory arbitrage
a 97.5% confidence are almost exactly the same. Suppose losses where banks choose to allocate instruments to either the trading
have a normal distribution with a mean µ. and standard deviation book or the banking book so as to minimize capital. In Basel
CJ'. The 99% VaR isµ. + 2.326CJw' hile the 97.5% expected 11.5, the incremental risk charge made this less attractive. FRTB
counteracts regulatory arbitrage by defining more clearly than
1 previously the differences between the two books.
See Bank for International Settlements, "Consultative Document:
Fundamental Review of the Trading Book," May 2012.
2
QISs are calculations carried out by banks to estimate the impact of
proposed regulatory changes on capital requirements. 4
From equation (11.2), the ES for a normal distribution with meanµ,
3
See Bank for International Settlements, "Minimum Capital and standard deviation a is,, + aexp(-Y2/2)/[ (1 - X)]
Requirements for Market Risk," January 2019. where
Xis the confidence level and Y is the point on a normal distribution that
has a probability of 1 - X of being exceeded. This can also be written
2 Financial Risk Manager Exam Part II: Market Risk Measurement and Management
µ, + u-2f(VaR)/(1 - X) where f is the probability density function for the loss.
iffl!ffl!ll:JI Allocation of Risk Factors to Liquidity The delta risk charge for a risk class is calculated using the
Horizons risk weights and weighted sensitivity approach described in
Section 13.6:
Risk Factor Horizon
(days)
Delta Risk Charge= LL > P;/3,oiW;W; (18.1)
; j
Interest rate (dependent on currency) 10-60
Interest rate volatility 60 where the summations are taken over all risk factors in the risk
Credit spread: sovereign, investment grade 20 class. The risk weights, W;, and the correlations between risk
factors, Pij• are determined by the Basel Committee.5 The sensi
Credit spread: sovereign, non-investment 40
tivities (or deltas), o;, are determined by the bank. In the case of
grade
risk factors such as equity prices, exchange rates, or commod ity
Credit spread: corporate, investment grade 40
prices, the deltas measure the sensitivity of the portfolio to
Credit spread: corporate, non-investment 60 percentage changes. For example, if a 1% increase in a com
grade
modity price would increase the value of a portfolio by $3,000,
Credit spread: other 120 the delta would be 3,000/0.01 = 300,000. In the case of risk
Credit spread volatility 120 factors such as interest rates and credit spreads, the deltas are
defined in terms of absolute changes. For example, if the effect
Equity price: large cap 10
of an interest rate increasing by one basis point (0.0001) is to
Equity price: small cap 20
reduce the value of a portfolio by $200, the delta with respect
Equity price: large cap volatility 20 to that interest rate would be -200/0.0001 = -2,000,000.
Equity price: small cap volatility 60 Consider how the risk weights, W;, might be set by regulators.
Equity: other 60 Suppose first that all risk factors are equity prices, exchange
Foreign exchange rate (dependent on 10-40 rates, or commodity prices, so the deltas are sensitivities
currency) to percentage changes. If W; were set equal to the daily
Foreign exchange volatility 40 volatility of risk factor i for all i, the risk charge in equation
(18.1) would equal the standard deviation of change in the
Energy price 20
value of the portfolio per day. If W; were set equal to the daily
Precious metal price 20 volatility of risk factor i in stressed market conditions (the
Other commodities price 60 stressed daily volatility) for all i, equation (18.1) wouId give
Energy price volatility 60 the standard deviation of the daily change of the portfolio
in stressed market conditions. In practice, the W; are set
Precious metal volatility 60
equal to multiples of the stressed daily volatility to reflect
Other commodities price volatility 120
the liquidity horizon and the confidence level that regulators
Commodity (other) 120 wish to consider. Suppose that the stressed daily volatility
of risk factor i is estimated as 2% and that the risk factor has
a 20-day liquidity horizon. The risk weight might be set as
0.02 x V20 X 2.338 = 0.209. (Note that the 2.338 multiplier
18.2 STANDARDIZED APPROACH reflects the amount by which a standard deviation has to be
multiplied to get ES with a 97.5% confidence when a normal
Under the standardized approach, the capital requirement is the distribution is assumed.)
sum of three components: a risk charge calculated using a risk
Now suppose that the risk factors are interest rates and credit
sensitivity approach, a default risk charge, and a residual risk
spreads so that deltas are sensitivities with respect to actual
add-on.
changes measured in basis points. The W; for risk factor i is set
Consider the first component. Seven risk classes (corresponding equal to a multiple of the stressed daily standard deviation for
to trading desks) are defined (general interest rate risk, foreign all i. If the multiple were 1, the formula would give the standard
exchange risk, commodity risk, equity risk, and three categories
of credit spread risk). Within each risk class, a delta risk charge,
5
vega risk charge, and curvature risk charge are calculated. Banks are required to test the effect of multiplying the correlations
specified by the Basel Committee by 1.25, 1.00, and 0.75 and then set
the capital charge equal to the greatest result obtained.
eter Pii is the correlation between changes in volatility i and is -B;W;. To evaluate the impact of curvature net of the delta
effect, the standardized approach therefore calculates
volatility j, and W; is the risk weight for volatility i. The latter
is determined similarly to the delta risk weights to reflect the 1. W;B; minus the impact of a increase of W; in the risk factor, and
volatility of the volatility i, its liquidity horizon, and the confi
2. -W;B; minus the impact of a decrease in the risk factor of W;.
dence level.
The curvature risk charge for the risk factor is the greater of
There are assumed to be no diversification benefits between risk
these two. If the impact of curvature net of delta is negative, it
factors in different risk classes and between the vega risks and
is counted as zero. The calculation is illustrated in Figure 18.1.
delta risks within a risk class. The end product of the calculations
In Figure 18.1a, the portfolio value is currently given by point
we have described so far is therefore the sum of the delta risk
0. If there were no curvature, an increase of W; in the risk
charges across the seven risk classes plus the sum of the vega
factor would lead to the portfolio value at point C, whereas a
risk charges across the seven risk classes.
decrease of W; in the risk factor would lead to the portfolio
value at point
18.2.1 Term Structures A. Because of curvature, an increase of W; leads to the portfo
lio value at point D, and a decrease of W; leads to the portfo-
In the case of risk factors such as interest rates, volatilities,
lio value at point B. Since AB > CD, the risk charge is AB. In
and credit spreads, there is usually a term structure defined
Figure 18.1b, the risk charge is zero because curvature actually
by a number of points. For example, an interest rate term increases the value of the position (relative to what delta
structure is sometimes defined by 10 points. These are would suggest) for both increases and decreases in the risk
the zero-coupon interest rates for maturities of 3 months, factor. (Figure 18.1a could correspond to a short position in an
6 months, 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, 5 years, 10 years, 15 option;
years, 20 years, and 30 years. Each vertex of the term Figure 18.1b could correspond to a long position in an option.)
structure is a separate risk factor for the purposes of using
When there are several risk factors, each is handled similarly
equation (18.1). The delta of a portfolio with respect to a one
to Figure 18.1. When there is a term structure (e.g., for interest
basis point move in one of the vertices on the term structure is
rates, credit spreads, and volatilities), all points are shifted by
calculated by increasing the position of the vertex by one
the same amount for the purpose of calculating the effect of
basis point while making no change to the other vertices. The
curvature. The shift is the largest W; for the points on the term
Basel Committee defines risk weights for each vertex of the
structure. In the case of an interest rate term structure, the W;
term structure and correlations between the vertices of the
corresponding to the three-month vertex might be the largest
same term structure.
W;, so this would define an upward and downward parallel
A simplification is used when correlations between points on shift in the term structure. The delta effect is removed for each
different term structures are defined. The correlations between point on the term structure by using the i:l; for that point.
point A on term structure 1 and point B on term structure 2 are
The curvature risk charges for different risk factors are combined
assumed to be the same for all A and B.
to determine a total curvature risk charge. When diversification
benefits are allowed, aggregation formulas broadly similar to
those used for deltas are used with correlations specified by the
Basel Committee.
6
This works well because most of the value of a derivative is in many
cases approximately linearly dependent on volatility.
Banks
7 can choose whether it is percentage or actual changes in volatil
ity that are considered. 18.2.3 Default Risk Charge
Risks associated with counterparty credit spread changes are
handled separately from risks associated with counterparty
(a)
Portfolio Portfolio value (b)
value
212 Financial Risk Manager Exam Part II: Market Risk Measurement and Management
18.4 TRADING BOOK VS. BANKING approved by their supervisors to use the internal models