UNIVERSITY OF MALAWI
SCHOOL OF NATURAL AND APPLIED SCIENCES
MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES DEPARTMENT
MASTER OF SCIENCE IN MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES
MAT629: MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY
IMPLEMENTATION OF EPIDEMIC MODELS IN MATLAB
ASSIGNMENT II (54 MARKS)
DUE DATE: FRIDAY, 15TH NOVEMBER 2024 BY 12:00
INSTRUCTIONS
(a) This assignment consists of two questions.
(b) It is not permitted to copy the codes from your classmate.
(c) Any student suspected of having copied from a classmate will receive a zero grade. (d)
Any student who submits the assignment after the specified time will lose 25% of their total
score.
(e) To submit your assignment, please create a zipped folder and name it with your registered
names, starting with your surname, for example: MAT629-MaliyoniMilliward. Inside this
folder, create two additional folders named Question1 and Question2. In each of these
folders,
(i) put the MATLAB code(s) script file (with your name and registration number on the first
line of the code, e.g. %Milliward Maliyoni - MSC/MAT/XX/24) used for plotting the graphs,
(ii) the three graphs (in PDF format) in question (b),
(iii) a PDF document with the explanation for the graphs in a(i) and your answer to question
(c).
(f) Email the zipped/compressed folder to: [email protected]. Please, use your UNIMA
email address.
Page 1 of 3
1. The following system of equations represents the dynamics of a certain infectious
disease:
dS
dt = Λ − βSI − µS
dI
dt = βSI − (α + µ)I
dR
dt = αI − µR
with initial conditions S(0) = S0, I(0) = I0, and R(0) = R0.
(a) Use the ode45 solver to implement the model in MATLAB using the following
information. (10 marks)
i. Initial conditions: S0 = 5, 000; I0 = 2; R0 = 20
ii. Parameter values: Λ = 200, β = 0.0012, µ = 0.15, α = 0.6
iii. Time (in years): 0 to 50
(b) Plot the graphs of the following using the provided details.
i. S, I, R vs t on the same axes. (6 marks) • y− axis label: Total population
• x− axis label: Time (Years)
• Color of the graphs: S(t)− blue (dashed); I(t)− red (dotted); R(t)− green
(continu ous).
• Legend: Susceptible, Infectious and Recovered.
Note: Include an explanation for each graph.
ii. I vs t (3 marks) • y− axis label: Infectious population
• x− axis label: Time (Years)
• Color of the graph: Red (continuous)
iii. R vs t (3 marks) • y− axis label: Recovered population
• x− axis label: Time (Years)
• Color of the graph: black (dashed)
(c) Based on the numerical solutions, propose two potential interventions to reduce the
disease’s impact. Provide justification for selecting these interventions. (6 marks)
Page 2 of 3
2. Consider the Tuberculosis (TB) model (of a certain community) with treatment
below:
S0(t) = Λ − λS − µS,
E0(t) = (1 − ρ)λS − (γ + µ)E,
I0(t) = ρλS + γE − (δ + ϕ + µ)I,
R0(t) = ϕI − µR,
with initial conditions S(0) = S0, E(0) = E0, I(0) = I0, R(0) = R0 and N = S + E + I + R.
(a) Use the Euler method to implement the model in MATLAB using the following
parameter values and initial conditions. (8 marks)
i. Initial conditions: S0 = 14, 000; E0 = 10, 500; I0 = 7, 500; R0 = 4, 000
ii. Parameter values: Λ = 2, 000; λ = 0.65; µ = 0.02; ρ = 0.2; γ = 0.4; δ = 0.3; c = 2; ϕ
= 0.15; β = 0.4.
iii. Time (in years): 0 to 25.
(b) Plot the graphs of the following using the provided details.
i. S, E, I, R vs t on the same axes. (6 marks) • y− axis label: Total population
• x− axis label: Time (Years)
• Color of the graphs: S(t)− green (continuous); E(t)− red (dashed); I(t)− blue (con
tinuous); R(t)− black (dashed).
• Legend: S(t), E(t), I(t) and R(t) representing the susceptible, exposed, infectious
and recovered populations, respectively.
Note: Include an explanation for each graph.
ii. S vs t and E vs t on the same axes. (3 marks) • y− axis label: S(t) and E(t)
• x− axis label: Time (Years)
• Color of the graphs: S(t)− blue (continuous) and E(t)− red (dashed)
• Legend: Susceptible and Exposed for S(t) and E(t), respectively.
iii. I vs t (3 marks) • y− axis label: Infectious population
• x− axis label: Time (Years)
• Color of the graph: Red (dotted)
(c) Considering the model’s results, what two possible interventions could be put in
place to lessen the impact of TB in this community? Justify your answer. (6 marks)
END OF QUESTIONS
“Education is the passport to the future, for tomorrow belongs to those who prepare for it today” Page
3 of 3
