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Probability

The document outlines key concepts in probability, including classical definitions, the addition theorem, conditional probability, and the binomial probability theorem. It also covers expectation, total probability, Bayes' theorem, and the binomial probability distribution, detailing formulas and relationships between different probability events. These principles are essential for understanding and calculating probabilities in various scenarios.

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karnsharma851
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10 views2 pages

Probability

The document outlines key concepts in probability, including classical definitions, the addition theorem, conditional probability, and the binomial probability theorem. It also covers expectation, total probability, Bayes' theorem, and the binomial probability distribution, detailing formulas and relationships between different probability events. These principles are essential for understanding and calculating probabilities in various scenarios.

Uploaded by

karnsharma851
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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PROBABILITY

1. Classical (A priori) Definition of Probability :


If an experiment results in a total of (m + n) outcomes which are equally
likely and mutually exclusive with one another and if ‘m’ outcomes are
favorable to an event ‘A’ while ‘n’ are unfavorable, then the probability of
m n( A )
occurrence of the event ‘A’ = P(A) = = .
mn n(S)
We say that odds in favour of ‘A’ are m : n, while odds against ‘A’ are n : m.

n
P( A ) = = 1 – P(A)
mn

2. Addition theorem of probability : P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB)


De Morgan’s Laws :
(a) (A B)c = A c B c (b) (A B)c = A c B c
Distributive Laws :
(a) A  (B C) = (A B)  (A C) (b) A  (B C) = (A B)  (A C)
(i) P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(A B) – P(B C) – P(C A) +
P(A B C)
(ii) P (at least two of A, B, C occur) = P(B  C) + P(C  A) + P(A  B)
– 2P(A B C)
(iii) P(exactly two of A, B, C occur) = P(B  C) + P(C  A) + P(A  B)
– 3P(A B  C)
(iv) P(exactly one of A, B, C occur) =
P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – 2P(B C) – 2P(C A) – 2P(A B) + 3P(A B C)

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P(A  B)
3. Conditional Probability : P(A/B) = .
P(B)

4. Binomial Probability Theorem


If an experiment is such that the probability of success or failure does not
change with trials, then the probability of getting exactly r success in n
trials of an experiment is nC r p r q n – r, where ‘p’ is the probability of a success
and q is the probability of a failure. Note that p + q = 1.

5. Expectation :
If a value M i is associated with a probability of p i , then the expectation is
given by  p i M i .
n
6. Total Probability Theorem : P(A) =  P(B ) . P(A / B )
i 1
i i

7. Bayes’ Theorem :
If an event A can occur with one of the n mutually exclusive and exhaustive
events B 1, B 2 , ....., B n and the probabilities P(A/B 1), P(A/B 2) .... P(A/B n) are

P(B i ) . P( A / B i )
known, then P(B i / A) = n B 1, B 2, B 3,........,B n

i 1
P(B i ) . P( A / B i )

A = (A  B 1)  (A  B 2)  (A  B 3)  ........  (A  B n)
n

P(A) = P(A  B 1) + P(A B 2) + ....... + P(A B n) =  P(A  B )


i1
i

8. Binomial Probability Distribution :


(i) Mean of any probability distribution of a random variable is given by :

 pi x i
µ= =  p i xi = np
 pi
n = number of trials
p = probability of success in each probability
q = probability of failure

(ii) Variance of a random variable is given by,


2 = (xi – µ)2 . p i = p i xi 2 – µ2 = npq

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