Lecture 14
Alpha
Beta
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
Objectives & Relevance Objective:
Introduce the types of considerations necessary to get a prospect ready for management approval
Relevance:
Demonstrate some the tasks that go into determining the size of the prize and the risk associated with a prospect
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
Overview of Prospect Analysis
Given the geologic framework and the results of our data analysis, our next task is to analyze and assess viable prospects:
Analyze prospect elements
Source, Migration, Reservoir, Trap, Seal Consider the most-likely scenario
Consider other cases - the range of possibilities
Assess the prospect
What volumes of HCs can we expect? Will it be oil or gas?
Risk the Prospect
What is our level of confidence that all the prospect elements work?
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
Outline 1. Define prospect elements
2. Estimating trap volume
3. HC Type 4. Assessment 5. Risk
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
Outline 1. Define prospect elements 2. Estimating trap volume
3. HC Type
4. Assessment 5. Risk
Plumbing To Connect the Container to the Kitchen
Correctly Placed Wells
A Container From Which Oil & Gas Can Be Produced
A Kitchen Where Organic Material Is Cooked
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
A Real HC System
organic rich serves as a source rock
Draupne Shale
Heather Shale Sognefjord Shale
both organic poor
Oil Spill Point Fault Leak Point
Facies Change
HC Generation & Expulsion
Brent Sandstone
acts as a reservoir
HC Migration
oil & gas from the Draupne, gas from coals in the Brent
into Brent carrier beds and up faults
HC Fill & Spill
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
late gas displaces early oil L14 Prospect Analysis
Most-Likely Scenario
Alpha Beta
Sea Water
Fill & Spill
Oil
Overburden Seal
Migration
Oil
Reservoir Source Basement
Generation
Oil
18 Ma
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
Most-Likely Scenario
Alpha Beta
Sea Water
Migration
Oil
Overburden Seal Reservoir Source Basement
Migration
Oil
Generation
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
Oil
10 Ma
L14 Prospect Analysis
Most-Likely Scenario
Alpha Beta
Sea Water
Migration
Oil
Overburden Seal Reservoir Source Basement
Oil & Gas
Migration
Generation
Oil
Present
Generation
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
Gas
L14 Prospect Analysis
Most-Likely Scenario
Alpha
Beta
Oil
Oil
18 Ma
Map of the Reservoir Unit
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
Most-Likely Scenario
Alpha Beta
Oil
Oil
10 Ma
Map of the Reservoir Unit
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
Most-Likely Scenario
Alpha Beta
Gas
Oil
Oil
Present
Map of the Reservoir Unit
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
Explorations Task
Identify Opportunities
Acquire Seismic Data Interpret Seismic Data
Capture Prime Areas
Drill Wildcats
Process Seismic Data Assess Prospects 1. 2. 3. 4. Volume HC Type Assessment Risk
FWS 2005
Failure
Success
Confirmation Well
Uneconomic Success
Drop Area
To EMDC or EMPC
L14 Prospect Analysis
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
Outline 1. Define prospect elements 2. Estimating trap volumes 3. HC Type 4. Assessment 5. Risk
Lets start an exercise
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
Exercise 12 Parts 1 - 6
We will do some quick estimates using a series of simplifying assumptions
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
Consider This .
Lets say our trap in cross-section view looks like this.
How can we get a rough estimate of the cross-sectional area?
Base 1
Height 1
Height 2 Base 2
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
From Area to Volume
Volume of a Cone = 1/3
r2
*h
Alpha
Beta
Consider the trap to be approximately a cone
h
r
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
Outline 1. Define prospect elements 2. Estimating trap volumes 3. HC Type 4. Assessment 5. Risk
DHI Analysis AVO Analysis HC Systems Analysis
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
Oil or Gas??? Should there be a difference in seismic response (AVO) between an oil-filled reservoir and a gas-filled reservoir?
Model response with different rock & fluid properties
Quantitative
If there should be a difference, which fluid type does the seismic data support?
Extract amplitudes from near- and far-angle stacks
From our basin modeling & HC systems analysis, which fluid type should we expect
What did the source generate What did the trap leak or spill
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
Qualitative
Model Seismic Responses - Input
10% Porosity 20% Porosity 30% Porosity
Gas
Oil
Brine
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
Model Seismic Responses - Output
10% Porosity Offset 20% Porosity Offset 30% Porosity Offset
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
Model Seismic Responses - Output AVO Crossplot
0.4
10%
0.2
Gas Oil Brine Shale 20%
Slope
0.0
30%
-0.2
-0.4 -0.3 -0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
Intercept
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
Questions???
Many times the seismic data will give us clues!
How can we verify this scenario? To what level are the traps filled with oil & gas? What would be the value ($) if our scenario is correct? How much more/less HC could there be? How risky is this prospect (chance that we are totally wrong)?
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
Seismic Line Across Alpha
Alpha
Fluid Contact? Gas over Oil? Fluid Contact? Oil over Water?
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
Outline
1. Define prospect elements 2. Estimating trap volumes 3. HC Type 4. Assessment 5. Risk
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
Types of Assessments
Once a lead has been high-graded into a prospect, we have to assess its potential value
Deterministic Assessment
One value for each parameter One final number, e.g., 200 MBO
Probabilistic Assessment
A range of values for each parameter A range of outcomes, e.g. 200 50 MBO
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
Scenarios & Probabilities
Scenario 1
Alpha
Scenario 2
Alpha
Gas Cap & Oil Leg 40% Chance of Occurrence
Gas Only 20% Chance of Occurrence
Scenario 3
Alpha
Scenario 4
Alpha
Oil Only
Low Gas Saturation
30% Chance of Occurrence
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
10% Chance of Occurrence
L14 Prospect Analysis
Deterministic Prospect Assessment
To Assess a Prospect, We Assign Numbers to the Parameters related to HC Volumes
ESTIMATES Alpha 2.91 km3 1.02 km3 0.25 km3 0.20 km3 1280 MBO 288 MBO Beta 2.12 km3 0.66 km3 0.15 km3 0.12 km3 735 MBO 132 MBO
In our exercise, we have assumed the all oil case (Scenario 3)
1. Gross Rock Volume 2. Reservoir Volume 3. Pore Volume 4. In-Place Volume 5. In-Place Barrels 6. EUR Unrisked
7. EUR Risked
MBO
MBO
Unrisked means everything in the HC System has worked!
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
Alpha Prospect Assessment Results
Oil
Million Barrels Oil
Gas
Billion Cubic Ft Gas
Oil-Equivalent
Million Oil Equivalent Barrels
Scenario 1
Oil & Gas
162 MBO 0 MBO 288 MBO 0 MBO
97 GCF 515 GCF 0 GCF 0 GCF
178 MOEB
6 GCF = 1 MBO
Scenario 2
Gas Only
86 MOEB
Uneconomic
Scenario 3
Oil Only
288 MOEB 0 MOEB
Uneconomic
Scenario 4
Low Gas Saturation
Assuming 100 MOEB is needed to make prospect economic
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
Probabilistic Assessment
The Goal is to Get A Number and a Range of Possible Outcomes We Input a Range of Values for Each Assessment Parameter
usually minimum, most-likely, maximum
Area
Thickness Net:Gross Porosity
Min 12
ML 20
Max 27
HC Sat.
FVF
Recovery
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
Unrisked Results
Alpha Prospect Unrisked
Excedance Probability
100%
100
80%
60% 40%
20%
0% 0
Economic Minimum
100
200
300
400
Million Barrels of Oil
50% Chance of finding 200 MBO or more 75% Chance of finding the economic minimum
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
Outline
1. Define prospect elements 2. Estimating trap volumes 3. HC Type 4. Assessment 5. Risk
25% Risk
75% Chance of Success
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
9 Key Elements of the HC System
Source Quality Reservoir Presence Trap Quality
Source Maturation
Reservoir Quality
Seal Adequacy
HC Migration
Biodegradation
Not Low Gas Saturation
A team of experts consider these key elements for each prospect. They rate the chance of success (COS) for each on a scale of 0 to 1
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
COS for Alpha
Alphas biggest risk is that the fault does not seal.
There is also some risk that the trap holds low gas saturation and that reservoir quality is poor
Reservoir Presence - - - - 1.0 Reservoir Quality Trap Quality Seal Adequacy - - - - 0.85 - - - - 1.0 - - - - 0.8 chance of success (COS)
Some Risk
Source Quality
Source Maturation HC Migration Biodegradation
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
- - - - 1.0
- - - - 1.0 - - - - 1.0 - - - - 1.0
FWS 2005
0.61
Highest Risk
Not Low Gas Saturation - 0.9
Some Risk
L14 Prospect Analysis
Risked Probabilistic Assessment Results
Alpha Prospect Main Compartment - Risked
1.0
100
0.8
Gas Only
Economic Minimum
61 % COS
0.6 0.4
Gas Cap & Oil Leg Oil Only
0.2
51 % Chance of Finding More Than the Economic Minimum
0.0 0
100
200
300
400
500
Million Oil Equivalent Barrels
72% Chance to find any hydrocarbons 58% Chance to find 100 MBOE 5% Chance to find 400 MBOE
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
Exercise 14 Part 7
In the exercise we will use A COS of 61% An economic minimum of 100 MBOE
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWS 2005
L14 Prospect Analysis
