Process Analysis
Introduction / The three
measures
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Subway Sitting in Front of the Store
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Subway Sitting in Front of the Store
25 Minutes later.
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Subway Sitting in Front of the Store
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Processes: The Three Basic Measures
Flow rate / throughput: number of flow units going through the process per unit of time
Flow Time: time it takes a flow unit to go from the beginning to the end of the process
Inventory: the number of flow units in the process at a given moment in time
Flow Unit: Customer or Sandwich
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Process Analysis: The Three Measures
Immigration department
Champagne
MBA program
Auto company
Applications
Bottle of champagne
Student
Car
Approved or rejected cases
Bottles sold per year
Graduating class
Sales per year
Processing time
Time in the cellar
2 years
60 days
Pending cases
Content of cellar
Total campus
population
Inventory
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Summary
When observing a process, always aim to understand the three process measures
Flow rate / throughput: number of flow units going through the process per unit of time
Flow Time: time it takes a flow unit to go from the beginning to the end of the process
Inventory: the number of flow units in the process at a given moment in time
In the next session, we will discuss what drives these measures
We will then find out that the three measures are related to each other
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Process Analysis
Finding the bottleneck
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Process Analysis
In this session, we will take you INSIDE the black box
Specifically, you will learn how to:
1. Create a process flow diagram
2. Find the bottleneck of the process and determine the maximum flow rate
3. Conduct a basic process analysis
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Subway Inside the Store
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Drawing a Process Flow Diagram
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Drawing a Process Flow Diagram
Customers Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Symbols in a process flow diagram
Difference between project management and process management
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Basic Process Vocabulary
Processing times: how long does the worker spend on the task?
Capacity=1/processing time: how many units can the worker make per unit of time
If there are m workers at the activity: Capacity=m/activity time
Bottleneck: process step with the lowest capacity
Process capacity: capacity of the bottleneck
Flow rate =Minimum{Demand rate, Process Capacity)
Utilization =Flow Rate / Capacity
Flow Time: The amount of time it takes a flow unit to go through the process
Inventory: The number of flow units in the system
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Process Analysis
Labor productivity measures
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Labor Productivity Measures
Processing Time
Bottleneck
a4
=Idle Time
=Processing time
a2
Labor Productivity Measures
a1
Cycle time CT= 1/ Flow Rate
Direct Labor Content=p1+p2+p3+p4
If one worker per resource:
Direct Idle Time=(CT-p1) +(CT-p2) +(CT-p3)
a3
Review of Capacity Calculations
Number of Resourcesi
Capacityi =
Processing Time i
Process Capacity=Min{Capacityi}
Flow Rate = Min{Demand, Capacity}
Flow Rate
Utilizationi= Capacity
i
Average labor utilization
labor content
labor content direct idle time
Cost of direct labor
Total wages per unit of time
Flow Rate per unit of time
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Example: Assembly Line with Six Stations
3 min/unit
5 min/unit
2 min/unit
3 min/unit
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
6 min/unit
2 min/unit
Insert Excel analysis of Subway line here
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
The Role of Labor Costs in Manufacturing:
The Auto Industry
100%
Other
Overhead
Warranty
Quality
90%
80%
70%
Assembly and other
Labor costs
60%
50%
Purchased
parts and
assemblies
40%
30%
Parts and
material
costs
Logistics costs
20%
Material costs
10%
0%
Final
Assemblers
cost
Including
Tier 1
Costs
Including
Tier 2
Costs
Rolled-up
Costs over
~ 5 Tiers
While labor costs appear small at first, they are important
- look relative to value added
- role up costs throughout the value chain
Implications
- also hunt for pennies (e.g. line balancing)
- spread operational excellence through the value chain
Source: Whitney / DaimlerChrysler
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Process Analysis
Littles Law
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Processes: The Three Key Metrics
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Littles law: Its more powerful than you think...
What it is:
Inventory (I) = Flow Rate (R) * Flow Time (T)
How to remember it:
- units
Implications:
Out of the three fundamental performance measures (I,R,T), two can be chosen by
management, the other is GIVEN by nature
Hold throughput constant: Reducing inventory = reducing flow time
Given two of the three measures, you can solve for the third:
Indirect measurement of flow time: how long does it take you on average to respond to an email?
You write 60 email responses per day
You have 240 emails in your inbox
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Examples for Littles Law Applications
In a large Philadelphia hospital, there are 10 births per day.
80% of the deliveries are easy and require mother and baby to stay for 2 days
20% of the cases are more complicated and require a 5 day stay
What is the average occupancy of the department?
Source: Graves and Little
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Littles law: Some remarks
Not an empirical law
Robust to variation, what happens inside the black box
Deals with averages variations around these averages will exist
Holds for every time window
Shown by Professor Little in 1961
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Process Analysis
Inventory Turns / Inventory costs
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Inventory Turns
Cost of Goods sold: 25,263 mill $/year
Inventory: 2,003 mill $
Cost of Goods sold: 20,000 mill $/year
Inventory: 391 mill $
Inventory Turns
Computed as:
Inventory turns=
COGS
Inventory
Based on Littles law
Careful to use COGS, not revenues
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Inventory Turns At Dell
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Inventory Turns in Retailing
and Its Link to Inventory Costs
Inventory Cost Calculation
Compute per unit inventory
costs as:
Per unit Inventory costs=
Annual inventory costs
Inventory turns
Example:
Annual inventory costs=30%
Inventory turns=6
Per unit Inventory costs=
Source: Gaur, Fisher, Raman
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
30% per year
5%
6 turns per year
Process Analysis
Buffer or Suffer
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Simple Process Flow A Food Truck
Food Truck
Every five minutes:
- You get 0, 1, or 2 orders with equal probability
- You have a capacity of 0, 1, or 2 with equal probability
- It is not possible to make a sandwich before the order
- Customers are not willing to wait
=> How many sandwiches will you sell per five minute slot?
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Variability Will Be a Key Factor in Waiting Time
Why variability does not always average itself out
Buffer-or-suffer strategy
Buffering is easier in production settings than in services (make to order vs make to stock)
Preview two different models: Queue and Newsvendor
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Difference Between Make-to-Order and Make-to-Stock
McDonalds
1. Make a batch of sandwiches
2. Sandwiches wait for customer orders
3. Customer orders can filled immediately
=> Sandwich waits for customer
Subway
1. Customer orders
2. Customer waits for making of sandwich
3. Customer orders can filled with delay
=> Customer waits for sandwich
Which approach is better?
Make-to-Stock advantages include:
+ Scale economies in production
+ Rapid fulfillment (short flow time for customer order)
Make-to-Order advantages include:
+ Fresh preparation (flow time for the sandwich)
+ Allows for more customization (you cant hold all versions
of a sandwich in stock)
+ Produce exactly in the quantity demanded
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Examples of Demand Waiting for Supply
Service Examples
ER Wait Times: 58-year-old Michael Herrara of Dallas died of a heart attack
after an estimated 19 hours in the local Hospital ER
Some ERs now post expected wait times online / via Apps
It takes typically 45 days do get approval on a mortgage; Strong link
between wait times and conversion
Waiting times for drive-through at McDonalds: 159 seconds; Long queues
deter customers to join
Production Examples
Buying an Apple computer
Buying a Dell computer
=> Make-to-order vs Make-to-Stock
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/drive-thrus-emissions-fast-food-mcdonalds/5/12/2010/id/28261
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Five Reasons for Inventory
Pipeline inventory: you will need some minimum inventory because of the flow time >0
Seasonal inventory: driven by seasonal variation in demand and constant capacity
Cycle inventory: economies of scale in production (purchasing drinks)
Safety inventory: buffer against demand (Mc Donalds hamburgers)
Decoupling inventory/ buffers: buffers between several internal steps
Source: De Groote
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Process Analysis
Multiple flow units
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Processes with Multiple Flow Units
Foreign Dep.
m=2
20
min/app
Contact faculty/
other persons
Foreign acc.
3 cases per hour
Regular
11 cases per hour
4 cases per hour EZ form
File
File
m=1
3 min/app
Department
Contact
prior
m=3
employers
15 min/app
Department
Benchmark
gradesm=2
8 min/app
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Print invoice
m=1
Confirmation
letter2 min/app
Approach 1: Adding-up Demand Streams
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Approach 2: A Generic Flow Unit (Minute of Work)
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Steps for Basic Process Analysis with Multiple
Types of Flow Units
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
For each resource, compute the number of minutes that the resource can
produce
Create a process flow diagram, indicating how the flow units go through
the process
Create a table indicating how much workload each flow unit is consuming
at each resource
Add up the workload of each resource across all flow units.
Compute the implied utilization of each resource as
The resource with the highest implied utilization is the bottleneck
Note: you can also find the bottleneck based on calculating capacity for each step
and then dividing the demand at this resource by the capacity
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Processes with Attrition Loss
Where is the Bottleneck?
Pitches
Scripts
Processing time
2 days
10 days
Resources
(250 days per year)
5 judges
3 script writers
2/6
6/20
20/70
70/500
500 ideas
per year
Pilots
30 days
2 pilot teams
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Shows
70 days
2 Series crews
New
Series
200 days
1 Main crew
