10
Chapter
Exchange Rate Fluctuation Exposure:
Measurement
South-Western/Thomson Learning 2006
Chapter Objectives
To discuss the relevance of an
MNCs
exposure to exchange rate risk;
To explain how transaction exposure can
be measured;
To explain how economic exposure can be
measured; and
To explain how translation exposure can
be measured.
10 - 2
Is Exchange Rate Risk Relevant?
Purchasing Power Parity Argument
Exchange rate movements will be matched
by price movements.
PPP does not necessarily hold.
10 - 3
Is Exchange Rate Risk Relevant?
The Investor Hedge Argument
MNC shareholders can hedge against
exchange rate fluctuations on their own.
The investors have complete information on
corporate exposure. They have the
capabilities to correctly and efficiently
insulate their individual exposure too.
10 - 4
Is Exchange Rate Risk Relevant?
Currency Diversification Argument
An MNC that is well diversified should not be
affected by exchange rate movements
because of offsetting effects.
This is a naive presumption.
10 - 5
Is Exchange Rate Risk Relevant?
Stakeholder Diversification Argument
Well-diversified stakeholders will be
somewhat insulated against losses
experienced by an MNC due to exchange
rate risk.
Many MNCs are similarly affected by
exchange rate movements.
10 - 6
Is Exchange Rate Risk Relevant?
Response from MNCs
Many MNCs have attempted to stabilize
their earnings with hedging strategies
because they believe exchange rate risk is
relevant.
10 - 7
Exposure Types
Although exchange rates cannot be
forecasted with perfect accuracy, firms
can at least measure their exposure to
exchange rate fluctuations.
Exposure to exchange rate fluctuations
comes in three forms:
Transaction exposure
Economic exposure
Translation exposure
10 - 8
Transaction Exposure
The degree to which the value of future
cash transactions can be affected by
exchange rate fluctuations is referred to
as transaction exposure.
To measure transaction exposure:
estimate the net cash inflows or outflows
in each currency, and
measure the potential impact of the
exposure to those currencies.
10 - 9
Estimating Net Currency Flows
MNCs can usually anticipate foreign cash
flows for an upcoming short-term period
with reasonable accuracy.
After the consolidated net currency flows
for the entire MNC has been determined,
each net flow is converted into a point
estimate (or range) of a chosen currency.
The exposure for each currency can then
be assessed using the same measure.
10 - 10
Measuring the Potential Impact
An MNCs exposure can be measured by
considering the proportion of each
currency together with the currencys
variability and the correlations among the
movements of the currencies.
For a two-currency portfolio,
p w x2 x2 w 2y 2y 2 w x w y x y CORR xy
10 - 11
Measuring the Potential Impact
The standard deviation statistic measures
currency variability.
Correlation coefficients indicate the degree
to which two currencies move in relation to
each other.
Coefficient
Perfect positive correlation
No correlation
Perfect negative correlation
1.00
0.00
1.00
Both variability and correlations vary
among currencies and over time.
10 - 12
Correlations Among
Exchange Rate Movements
British
Pound
Canadian
Dollar
Euro
Japanese
Yen
British
Pound
1.00
Canadian
Dollar
.35
1.00
Euro
.91
.48
1.00
Japanese
Yen
.71
.12
.67
1.00
Swedish
Krona
.83
.57
.92
.64
Swedish
Krona
1.00
10 - 13
Impact of Cash Flow and Correlation Conditions
on an MNCs Exposure
Expected Net Cash Flow
Currency x Currency y
+Q
+Q
+Q
+Q
+Q
+Q
+Q
+Q
+Q
Q
Q
Q
MNCs
Correlation between
Currencies x and y Exposure
Highly positive
High
Slightly positive
Moderate
Negative
Low
Highly positive
Low
Slightly positive
Moderate
Negative
High
10 - 14
Movements of Major Currencies against the Dollar
10 - 15
Transaction Exposure
The value-at-risk (VAR) method makes use of
currency volatility and correlations to
determine the potential maximum one-day loss
on the value of an MNCs positions.
For foreign currency x, the maximum one-day
loss = E ( ex ) z[P] x
E(ex) = expected % in x for the next day
z[P] = if u ~ N(0,1), Prob (u < z[P] ) = P
for 95% confidence level, z[.95] = 1.65
x =
standard deviation of the daily % in x
10 - 16
Transaction Exposure
The VAR method can also be used to assess
exposure to multiple currencies and over
longer time horizons.
Maximum one-month loss of currency
portfolio p = E ( ep ) z[P] p
E(ep) = expected % in p over the next month
z[P] = if u ~ N(0,1), Prob (u < z[P] ) = P
for 95% confidence level, z[.95] = 1.65
p = standard deviation of the monthly % in
portfolio p
10 - 17
Economic Exposure
Economic exposure refers to the degree to
which a firms present value of future cash
flows can be influenced by exchange rate
fluctuations.
Some of these affected cash flows do not
require currency conversion.
Even a purely domestic firm may be
affected by economic exposure if it faces
foreign competition in its local markets.
10 - 18
Economic Exposure to Exchange Rate Fluctuations
Transactions that Influence
the Firms Cash Inflows
Local sales (relative to foreign
competition in local markets)
Firms exports denominated
in local currency
Firms exports denominated
in foreign currency
Interest received from foreign
investments
Transactions that Influence
the Firms Cash Inflows
Firms imported supplies
denominated in local currency
Firms imported supplies
denominated in foreign currency
Interest owed on foreign funds
borrowed
Local Currency Local Currency
Appreciates
Depreciates
Decrease
Increase
Decrease
Increase
Decrease
Increase
Decrease
Increase
No change
No change
Decrease
Increase
Decrease
Increase
Transactions that reflect transaction exposure
10 - 19
Economic Exposure
Economic exposure can be measured by
assessing the sensitivity of the firms earnings
to exchange rates.
This involves reviewing how the earnings
forecast in the firms income statement changes
in response to alternative exchange rate
scenarios.
In general, firms with more foreign costs than
revenues tend to be unfavorably affected by
stronger foreign currencies.
10 - 20
Economic Exposure
Economic exposure can also be measured
by assessing the sensitivity of the firms
cash flows to exchange rates through
regression analysis.
For a single foreign currency:
PCFt = a0 + a1et + t
PCFt
=
% in inflation-adjusted cash
flows measured in the firms home currency
over period t
et =
% in the exchange rate over period
t
10 - 21
Economic Exposure
The model may be revised to handle
additional currencies by including them as
additional independent variables.
By replacing the dependent variable (cash
flows), the impact of exchange rates on
the firms value (as measured by its stock
price), earnings, exports, sales, etc. may
also be assessed.
10 - 22
Translation Exposure
The exposure of an MNCs consolidated
financial statements to exchange rate
fluctuations is known as translation
exposure.
In particular, subsidiary earnings
translated into the reporting currency on
the consolidated income statement are
subject to changing exchange rates.
10 - 23
Does Translation Exposure Matter?
Cash Flow Perspective
The translation of financial statements for
consolidated reporting purposes does not by
itself affect an MNCs cash flows.
However, a weak spot rate today may result
in a weak exchange rate forecast (and hence
a weak expected cash flow) for the point in
the future when subsidiary earnings are to be
remitted.
10 - 24
Does Translation Exposure Matter?
Stock Price Perspective
Since an MNCs translation exposure affects
its consolidated earnings and many investors
tend to use earnings when valuing firms, the
MNCs valuation may be affected.
10 - 25
Translation Exposure
An MNCs degree of translation exposure
is dependent on:
the proportion of its business conducted by
foreign subsidiaries,
the locations of its foreign subsidiaries,
and
the accounting methods that it uses.
10 - 26
Translation Exposure
In the 20002001 period, the weakness of
the euro caused several U.S.-based MNCs
to report lower earnings than what they
had expected.
In 2002 and 2003, however, the euro
strengthened, and the consolidated
income statements of these U.S.-based
MNCs improved.
10 - 27
