12

CHAPTER

The Open Economy Revisited:

the Mundell-Fleming Model and
the Exchange-Rate Regime
 In this chapter, you will learn…

 the Mundell-Fleming model

(IS-LM for the small open economy)
 causes and effects of interest rate differentials
 arguments for fixed vs. floating exchange rates
 how to derive the aggregate demand curve for a
small open economy

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 1

 The Mundell-Fleming model

 Key assumption:
Small open economy with perfect capital mobility.
r = r*
 Goods market equilibrium – the IS* curve:
Y  C (Y T )  I (r *)  G  NX (e )
where
e = nominal exchange rate
= foreign currency per unit domestic currency

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 2

 The IS* curve: Goods market eq’m
Y  C (Y T )  I (r *)  G  NX (e )
The IS* curve is drawn for a
given value of r*. e
Intuition for the slope:

 e   NX  Y
We could derive this using the
“Keynesian cross”. See Ch. 12.
Remember, the IS curve IS*
incorporates the multiplier effect. Y

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 3

 The LM* curve: Money market eq’m
M P  L(r *,Y )
The LM* curve
e LM*
 is drawn for a given
value of r*.
 is vertical because:
given r*, there is
only one value of Y
that equates money
demand with supply, Y
regardless of e.
CHAPTER 12.02 slide 4
 Equilibrium in the Mundell-Fleming
model
Y  C (Y T )  I (r *)  G  NX (e )
M P  L(r *,Y )
e LM*

equilibrium
exchange
rate

IS*
equilibrium Y
level of
income
CHAPTER 12.02 slide 5
 Floating & fixed exchange rates

 In a system of floating exchange rates,

e is allowed to fluctuate in response to changing
economic conditions.
 In contrast, under fixed exchange rates,
the central bank trades domestic for foreign
currency at a predetermined price.
 Next, policy analysis –
 first, in a floating exchange rate system
 then, in a fixed exchange rate system
CHAPTER 12.02 slide 6
 Fiscal policy under floating exchange
rates
Y  C (Y T )  I (r *)  G  NX (e )
M P  L(r *,Y )
e LM 1*
At any given value of e,
e2
a fiscal expansion
increases Y, e1
shifting IS* to the right.
IS 2*
Results:
IS 1*
e > 0, Y = 0 Y
Y1

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 7

 Lessons about fiscal policy

 In a small open economy with perfect capital

mobility, fiscal policy cannot affect real GDP.
 “Crowding out”
 closed economy:
Fiscal policy crowds out investment by causing
the interest rate to rise.
 small open economy:
Fiscal policy crowds out net exports by causing
the exchange rate to appreciate.

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 8

 Monetary policy under floating
exchange rates
Y  C (Y T )  I (r *)  G  NX (e )
M P  L(r *,Y )
e LM 1*LM 2*
An increase in M
shifts LM* right
because Y must rise
to restore eq’m in e1
the money market. e2
Results: IS 1*
Y
e < 0, Y > 0 Y1 Y2

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 9

 Lessons about monetary policy
 Monetary policy affects output by affecting
the components of aggregate demand:
closed economy: M  r  I  Y
small open economy: M  e  NX  Y

 Expansionary mon. policy does not raise world

agg. demand, it merely shifts demand from
foreign to domestic products.
So, the increases in domestic income and
employment are at the expense of losses abroad.

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 10

 Trade policy under floating exchange
rates
Y  C (Y T )  I (r *)  G  NX (e )
M P  L(r *,Y )
e LM 1*
At any given value of e,
a tariff or quota reduces e2
imports, increases NX,
and shifts IS* to the right. e1
Results: IS 2*
e > 0, Y = 0 IS 1*
Y
NX does not change! Why? Y1

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 11

 Lessons about trade policy

 Import restrictions cannot reduce a trade deficit.

 Even though NX is unchanged, there is less
trade:
 the trade restriction reduces imports.
 the exchange rate appreciation reduces
exports.
 Less trade means fewer “gains from trade.”

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 12

 Lessons about trade policy, cont.

 Import restrictions on specific products save jobs

in the domestic industries that produce those
products, but destroy jobs in export-producing
sectors.
 Hence, import restrictions fail to increase total
employment.
 Also, import restrictions create “sectoral shifts,”
which cause frictional unemployment.

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 13

 Solving the model mathematically
under floating exchange rates
M P  L(r *,Y )  dM  Lr dr * LY dY
Notice that from the money market alone, we can solve for output.
That is because the interest rate is exogenous
dM  Lr dr *
dY 
LY

Recall LY  0, Lr  0

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 14

 Solve for the exchange rate

Y  C (Y T )  I (r *)  G  NX (e )

dY  CY T dY  CY T dT  Ir dr * NX ede  dE

We have 0  CY T  1, Ir  0, NX e  0

dE refers to any exogenous change in spending, such

as a change in government spending, or exogenous
changes in consumption or investment, or a policy that
reduces net exports exogenously

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 15

 Do some algebra

(1  CY T )dY  CY T dT  Ir dr * dE
de 
NX e

Now plug in our solution for dY

(1  CY T )  dM  Lr dr *  CY T dT  Ir dr * dE
de   
NX e  LY  NX e

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 16

 Fixed exchange rates

 Under fixed exchange rates, the central bank

stands ready to buy or sell the domestic currency
for foreign currency at a predetermined rate.
 In the Mundell-Fleming model, the central bank
shifts the LM* curve as required to keep e at its
preannounced rate.
 This system fixes the nominal exchange rate.
In the long run, when prices are flexible,
the real exchange rate can move even if the
nominal rate is fixed.
CHAPTER 12.02 slide 17
 Fiscal policy under fixed exchange
rates

Under
Underfloating
floatingrates,
rates,
afiscal
fiscalpolicy
expansion
is ineffective
e LM 1*LM 2*
would raise e.output.
at changing
To keepfixed
Under e from rising,
rates,
the central
fiscal bank
policy must
is very
sell domestic currency, e1
effective at changing
which
output.increases M IS 2*
and shifts LM* right.
IS 1*
Results: Y
Y1 Y2
e = 0, Y > 0
CHAPTER 12.02 slide 18
 Monetary policy under fixed
exchange rates
An increase
Under in Mrates,
floating would
monetary
shift policy
LM* right andisreduce e.
very effective at e LM 1*LM 2*
To prevent the fall in e,
changing
the central output.
bank must
buy
Underdomestic currency,
fixed rates,
which reduces
monetary M and
policy cannot e1
shifts LM*toback
be used left.output.
affect
Results: IS 1*
Y
e = 0, Y = 0 Y1

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 19

 Trade policy under fixed exchange
rates
Under floating rates,
A restriction on imports puts
import restrictions
upward pressure on e.
do not affect Y or NX. e LM 1*LM 2*
To keep
Under e from
fixed rates,rising,
the central
import bank must
restrictions
sell domestic
increase Y andcurrency,
NX.
which increases M e1
Is this policy desirable?
and or
Why shifts
whyLM*
not?right. IS 2*
Results: IS 1*
Y
e = 0, Y > 0 Y1 Y2

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 20

 Summary of policy effects in the
Mundell-Fleming model

type of exchange rate regime:

floating fixed
impact on:

Policy Y e NX Y e NX

fiscal expansion 0    0 0

mon. expansion    0 0 0

import restriction 0  0  0 

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 21

 The model under fixed exchange
rates, mathematically
Now we have: de  0
Our IS curve was:
dY  CY T dY  CY T dT  Ir dr * NX ede  dE
Set de = 0, and solve
CY T dT  Ir dr * dE
dY 
1  CY T
Under fixed exchange rates, output is determined just by the
goods market equation

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 22

 Money supply under fixed
exchange rates
Now, the money supply is endogenous. We had the equation:

dM  Lr dr * LY dY
But we have already solved for dY, so we can just plug in that
solution to find dM:

 CY T dT  Ir dr * dE 
dM  Lr dr * LY  
 1  CY T 

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 23

 Floating vs. fixed exchange rates

Argument for floating rates:

 allows monetary policy to be used to pursue other
goals (stable growth, low inflation).

Arguments for fixed rates:

 avoids uncertainty and volatility, making
international transactions easier.
 disciplines monetary policy to prevent excessive
money growth & hyperinflation.

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 24

 Should East Asia have a currency
union? (Glick)
 How does East Asia compare to Europe?
 More trade barriers.
 Less economically “self-contained”.
 Less politically integrated.
 More suspicious of “supranational institutions”.
 Why do each of these make East Asia a weaker
candidate for monetary union than Europe?

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 25

 The Impossible Trinity

A nation cannot have free

capital flows, independent Free capital
monetary policy, and a flows
fixed exchange rate
simultaneously. Option 1 Option 2
(U.S.) (Hong Kong)
A nation must choose
one side of this
triangle and
give up the Independent Fixed
Option 3 exchange
monetary
opposite (China)
policy rate
corner.
CHAPTER 12.02 slide 26
 CASE STUDY:
The Chinese Currency Controversy
 1995-2005: China fixed its exchange rate at 8.28
yuan per dollar, and restricted capital flows.
 Many observers believed that the yuan was
significantly undervalued, as China was
accumulating large dollar reserves.
 U.S. producers complained that China’s cheap
yuan gave Chinese producers an unfair advantage.
 President Bush asked China to let its currency float;
Others in the U.S. wanted tariffs on Chinese goods.
CHAPTER 12.02 slide 27
 CASE STUDY:
The Chinese Currency Controversy
 If China lets the yuan float, it may indeed
appreciate.
 However, if China also allows greater capital
mobility, then Chinese citizens may start moving
their savings abroad.
 Such capital outflows could cause the yuan to
depreciate rather than appreciate.

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 28

 Mundell-Fleming and the AD curve

 So far in M-F model, P has been fixed.

 Next: to derive the AD curve, consider the impact of
a change in P in the M-F model.
 We now write the M-F equations as:
(IS* ) Y  C (Y T )  I (r *)  G  NX (ε )

(LM* ) M P  L(r *,Y )

(Earlier in this chapter, P was fixed, so we
could write NX as a function of e instead of .)
CHAPTER 12.02 slide 29
 Deriving the AD curve
 LM*(P2) LM*(P1)
Why AD curve has
2
negative slope:
1
P  (M/P)
IS*
 LM shifts left Y2 Y1 Y
P
 
P2
 NX P1
 Y AD
Y2 Y1 Y
CHAPTER 12.02 slide 30
 From the short run to the long run
 LM*(P1) LM*(P2)
If Y1  Y ,
then there is 1
downward pressure 2
on prices. IS*
Over time, P will Y1 Y Y
P LRAS
move down, causing
(M/P ) P1 SRAS1
 P2 SRAS2
NX  AD
Y Y1 Y Y
CHAPTER 12.02 slide 31
 Interest-rate differentials

Two reasons why r may differ from r*

 country risk: The risk that the country’s borrowers
will default on their loan repayments because of
political or economic turmoil.
Lenders require a higher interest rate to
compensate them for this risk.
 expected exchange rate changes: If a country’s
exchange rate is expected to fall, then its borrowers
must pay a higher interest rate to compensate
lenders for the expected currency depreciation.

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 32

 Expected change in exchange
rates
 When a foreigner buys a domestic bond, they
really earn more than just r, the interest rate.
 They are holding a dollar asset. Foreigners gain
if the dollar itself gains value relative to the
foreign currency.
 The expected appreciation of the dollar:
e1  e
e

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 33

 Interest parity

 The total expected return for a foreigner is

ee1  e
r
e
 “Interest parity” says that the return on the home
country’s bonds equal the foreign interest rate:
ee1  e
r r *
e

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 34

 Interest rates and exchange rates

 We can rewrite the interest parity equation to get

a relationship that says the exchange rate is
determined by home and foreign interest rates,
and the expected future exchange
e
rate:
e1
e
1  r * r
 Home currency is stronger if:
 Home interest rate, r, rises
 Foreign interest rate, r*, falls
 Expected exchange rate increases
CHAPTER 12.02 slide 35
 IS-LM again

 Let’s write the equation for exchange rates as

 e = e(r,r*,ee)
 Now let’s go back to our IS equation:
 Y = C(Y-T) + I(r) +G + NX(e)
= C(Y-T) + I(r) +G + NX(e(r,r*,ee))
 We have solved out for the exchange rate.
 IS depends on the interest rate, r.
 IS is shifted by changes in r* and ee
CHAPTER 12.02 slide 36
 The short-run equilibrium
The LM curve is unchanged. r
For the open-economy, we
LM
can write an IS-LM model
that is similar to the closed
economy:
Y  C (Y T )  I (r )  G
NX (e (r , r *, e e )) IS
Y
M P  L (r ,Y )
IS is flatter than in the closed economy. Why?

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 37

 An increase in government purchases
1. IS curve shifts right r
LM
2. r rises and Y rises
3. e rises, from interest parity r
2
4. NX must fall.
r1
IS2
IS1
Y
Y1 Y2

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 38

 Compare to model without
expectations
 The home country interest rate can rise. We do
not have to have r = r*
 There is crowding out – as G rises, NX falls.
 But it is not complete crowding out. NX does
not fall as much as G rises.
 So, Y rises when G rises.
 Exogenous changes in demand can affect
output.

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 39

 Monetary policy: An increase in M

r
1. M > 0 shifts LM1
the LM curve down
LM2
2. r goes down, Y
goes up r1
3. e goes down r2
4. NX goes up
IS
Y
Y1 Y2

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 40

 Compare to the model with no
expectations
 A monetary expansion reduces the home
interest rate, r, as in an open economy
 Investment demand and net exports are
stimulated.
 In the open economy, a monetary expansion
has an extra kick.

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 41

 A change in expectations

 What if there is an increase in the expected

future value of the currency? ee rises.
 From interest parity, this leads to an immediate
appreciation: e rises.
 This reduces net exports.
 IS shifts to the left.
 The interest rate, r, falls, and output, Y, falls.

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 42

 Summary

 When we allow for expected changes in the

value of the currency and use interest parity, the
model is like the closed economy IS-LM.
 The IS curve is flatter because a drop in the
interest rate also causes e to fall, which
stimulates net exports.
 The expected exchange rate, ee, and the foreign
interest rate, r*, can affect the IS curve.

CHAPTER 12.02 slide 43

 Chapter Summary

1. Mundell-Fleming model
 the IS-LM model for a small open economy.
 takes P as given.
 can show how policies and shocks affect income
and the exchange rate.
2. Fiscal policy
 affects income under fixed exchange rates, but not
under floating exchange rates.

CHAPTER 12 The Open Economy Revisited slide 44

 Chapter Summary

3. Monetary policy
 affects income under floating exchange rates.
 under fixed exchange rates, monetary policy is not
available to affect output.
4. Interest rate differentials
 exist if investors require a risk premium to hold a
country’s assets.

CHAPTER 12 The Open Economy Revisited slide 45

 Chapter Summary

5. Fixed vs. floating exchange rates

 Under floating rates, monetary policy is available for
can purposes other than maintaining exchange rate
stability.
 Fixed exchange rates reduce some of the
uncertainty in international transactions.

CHAPTER 12 The Open Economy Revisited slide 46