LECTURE.

4: NETWORK ANALYSIS
PERT/CPM
• A project is defined as :
A task to achieve defined objective
with the application of limited
resources like Man, Machine, Material
and Money with in specified time
period and quality.
 Other Aspects
• Kerzner - completed within time and within
budget while utilizing the assigned resources
effectively and efficiently
• Goldratt - must be completed on time, within
budget, and to the original specifications
• Meredith and Mantel - must be controlled by some
means to reduce the difference between plan and
reality
 PROJECT
• THREE MANAGERIAL FUNCTIONS
– PLANNING: SPLITTING THE WHOLE PROJECT WORK IN
NUMBERS OF WELL DEFINED ACTIVITIES
– SCHEDULING : ARRANGING THE ACTIVITIES ASPER
THEIR HAPPENING OR ESTABLISING THE SEQUENCE OF
THEIR COMPLETION AND RELATIONS.
– CONTROL: THIS IS ACTUALLY THE MEASURE OF
PROGRESS AGAINST TARGET, I,E DATE ,QUALITY AND
COSTS . IF NOT ACHIEVED ,REASONS OF DELAY AND TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE STEPS TO OVERCOME THE SITUATION.
 SCHEDULING
• G ANTT CHART
• NETWORK ANALYSIS
• LINE OF BALANCE ( LOB)
• MANAGEMENT OPERATION SYSTEM
TECHNIQUE (MOST )
• GRAPHICAL EVALUATION AND
REVIEW ( GERT)
Brief History of PERT and CPM
• Developed independently in the 1950s.

• Though originally two separate methods,

common usage, now does not normally
make a distinction between PERT and
CPM.
• Now –a – days called PERT/CPM method
 Characteristics of PERT/CPM-
managed projects
1. The project consists of a well-defined collection of
jobs, or activities when all the activities completed
marks the end of the project.
2. The activities may be started or stopped independently
of each other, within a given sequence (thus
eliminating continuous flow processes).
3. The activities are ordered; that is, they must be
performed in technological sequence.
4. Activities may be depended on the completion of
another activity
LANGUAGES OF PERT/CPM
• Activity
– task or set of tasks
– use resources
• Event
– state resulting from completion of one or more
activities
– consume no resources or time
– predecessor activities must be completed
LANGUAGES OF PERT/CPM contd.
• Milestones
– events that mark significant progress
• Network
– diagram of nodes and arcs
– used to illustrate technological relationships
• Path
– series of connected activities between two
events
The Language of PERT/CPM contd.
• Critical Path
– set of activities on a path that if delayed will
delay completion of project
• Critical Time
– time required to complete all activities on the
critical path
 LANGUAGES BY DIAGRAM
• ACTIVITY BY ARROW
• EVENT / NODES BY

• DIVERGING / PARRALEL ACTIVITIES

• CONVERGING ACTIVITIES
 Activity, Dummy & Event

• DUMMY ACTIVITY DOT LINES

– VIRTUAL ACTIVITY . NO NEED OF
TIME/COSTS AND RESOURCES
Event
• NET-WORK Activity

30
60
0 50
Dummy

20 40
Planned Get-together Activities and Times
• A. Choice of place – 1 day
• B. Chalk out of programme – 2 days
• C. Select the Chief Guest – 1 day
• D. Select the performers – 3 days
• E. Select the place for refreshment / lunch - 1 day
• F. Invitation list & letter Printing – 7 days
• G. Invitation letter sending – 3 days
• H. Booking of Instruments – 2 days
• I.Selection of Menu for dinner – 1 day
• J. selection of Caterer & Order – 2 days
• K. Reharsal of the Stage performance - 1 day
• L. Final stage performance - 1 day
Activity Predecessor
• A -
• B A
• C -
• D B
• E C
• F C
• G F
• H A
• I E
• J I
• K A,D,G,H
• L J,K
 B
10 20

D
H
A
K L
0 60 80 90

G
C F
30
50
J

E
40 70
I
 ES=1,
EF=1
B
10 20
2
D
H 3
A 1 2

ES=0,
EF=0 C K L
F G 60 90
0 30 50 80
1 7 1
3 1

E J
1 2

40
I
70
1
 ES,EF,LS,LF,

The Earliest Start (ES) is the value near the tail of each activity
The Earliest Finish(EF) is = Earliest Start + Duration
The Latest Finish (LF) is the value at the head of each activity
The Latest Start (LS) is = Latest Finish - Duration

ESij=0 EFij=ESij+Dij
Dij
i j
LFj=EF
LFi=LFj -Dij
LSj =LFi
Dij = Duration of the activity
 EFij=ESij+Dij EFjk=ESjk+Djk
ESij=0 =ESjk Djk
Dij
i j k

LFi=LFj -Dij LFij=LFjk –Djk LFjk=EFjk

LSjk =LFj
LSj =LFi
Dj k= Duration of the activity j-k

ES0=0 EF1=ES1+D01 EF2=ES2+D12

EF=0 ES1=0 ES2=EF1
D01 D12
0 1 2

LF0=LFj1-D01 LF1=LF2 –D12 LF2=EF2

LS2 =LF1
LS1 =LF0
Dj k= Duration of the activity j-k
 SALCK TIME FOR AN EVENT

•SLACK TIME OR SLACK OF AN EVENT IS THE DIFFERENCE

BETWEEN THE LATEST EVENT TIME AND EARLIST EVENT TIME

•ACTIVITY EVENT HAS HEAD EVENT AND TAIL EVENT SLACK

•HEAD EVENT SLACK (HES) : IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN

LATEST EVENT TIME AND EARLEST EVENT TIME OF AN
TERMINATING ACTIVITY ( HEAD EVENT OR TERMINATING NODE)

•HENCE ,HES = LF – EF ( HEAD EVENT)

•TAIL EVEN SLACK (TES) : IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LATEST

EVENT TIME AND EARLEST EVENT TIME OF THE TAIL EVENT ( OR
STARTING POINT OF THE ACTIVITY OR STARTING NODE)

•HENCE , TES = LF – EF ( TAIL EVENT )

 TOTAL FLOAT
•TOTAL FLOAT(TF) OF AN ACTIVITY IS THE TIME BY WHICH AN
ACTIVITY CAN BE DELAYED WITH OUT DELAYING THE PROJECT
COMPLETION
• TF IS THE POSITIVE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN (EF ) AND (LF) OR
(LS) AND (ES )
•HENCE , TF = ( LF ) – (ES) = (LS ) – (ES)

FREE FLOAT (FF)

(FF) IS THE PORTION OF THE TF WITHIN WHICH AN ACTIVITY
CAN BE REARRANGED WITH OUT AFFECTING THE FLOAT OF
SUBSEQUENT ACTIVITIES .
FF IS CALCULATED AS = (TF ) – (HES)

INDEPENDENT FLOAT(IF)
(IF) IS THE PORTION OF THE TF WITHIN WHICH AN ACTIVITY
CAN BE DELAYED FOR START WITH OUT AFFECTING THE
PRECEDING ACTIVITIES .
IF IS CALCULATED AS = (TF ) – (TES)
 FORWARD PASS
EF=3E
EF=1E S=3
S=1
B
10 20
2
D
H 3
A 1 2 , EF=11 EF=12 EF=13
EF=1E EF=8E ES=11 ES=12
ES=0,
C
S=1 S=8 K L
F G 60 90
0 30 50 80
1 7 1
3 1

E J
1 2
EF=2
EF=3

40
I RULES FOR NODES
70 EF =MAX OF ALL EFs
1 OF THE NODE

CRITICAL PATH 0 – 30 – 50 – 60 – 80 - 90
 BACKWARD PASS

B
10 20
2
LF=8 D
LF=6 H 3
A 1 2

C K L
F G 60 90
0 30 50 80
1 7 1
3 LF=12 1 LF=13
LF=0 LF=1 LF=8 LF=11

E J
1 2

40
I
70
RULES FOR NODES
LF=9 1 LF =MIN OF ALL LFs
LF=10
OF THE NODE
CRITICAL PATH 0 – 30 – 50 – 60 – 80 - 90
 CALCULATION OF ES,EF,LS,LF
EARLIEST EARLIEST LATEST
START FINISH FINISH LATEST START
ACTIVITY DURATION (ES) (EF=ES+D) (LF) (LS=LF-D)
A 0 - 10 1 0 1 6 5
B 10 - 20 2 1 3 8 6
C 0 - 30 1 0 1 1 0
D 20 - 60 3 3 6 11 8
E 30 - 40 1 1 2 9 8
F 30 - 50 7 1 8 8 1
G 50 - 60 3 8 11 11 8
H 10 - 60 2 1 3 11 9
I 40 - 70 1 2 3 10 9
J 70 - 80 2 3 5 12 10
K 60 - 80 1 11 12 12 11
L 80 - 90 1 12 13 13 12
 EF=3E
EF=1E S=3
S=1
B
10 20
2
LF=8L D
LF=6L
S=6 H 3
A 1
S=5
2 , EF=11 EF=12 EF=13
EF=1E EF=8E ES=11 ES=12
ES=0,
C
S=1 S=8 K L
F G 60 90
0 30 50 80
1 7 1
3 LF=12 1 LF=13
LF=0L LF=1L LF=8L LF=11
S=0 S=1 S=1 LS=8 LS=12
E J RULES FOR NODES
1 2
EF=2 EF =MAX OF ALL EFs
EF=3 OF THE NODE
40
I
70
RULES FOR NODES
LF=9L 1 LF =MIN OF ALL LFs
LF=10
S=9 LS=10 OF THE NODE
CRITICAL PATH 0 – 30 – 50 – 60 – 80 - 90 TOTAL DAYS = 13
TOTAL FLOAT is the spare time available when all preceding
activities occur at the earliest possible times and all succeeding
activities occur at the latest possible times.
•Total Float = Latest Start - Earliest Start
•When an activity has zero Total float, Free float will also be zero.

•Six steps which are common to both the techniques : -

•Define the Project and all of it’s significant activities or tasks.

The Project (combination of several tasks) should have only a
single start activity and a single finish activity.

•Decide relationship of activities according to preceding and

succeeding activities
• Draw the "Network" connecting all the activities. Each Activity
should have unique event numbers.
• The activities should be connected with arrows.
• No two arrow should cross each other Dummy arrows ( dot lines)
are used where required to avoid giving the same numbering to two
activities.

•Assign time and/or cost estimates to each activity

•Compute the longest time path through the network. This is called
the critical path.

•Use the Network to help plan, schedule, monitor and control the
project.
 The PERT (Probabilistic) Approach
PERT IS DEFINED IS THE SHORT FORM OF ; PROGRAMME
EVALUATION REVIEW TECHNIQUE

This is based on probabilistic approach

For each activity, three time estimates are taken

1.The Most Optimistic (to )

2.The Most Likely ( tm )
3.The Most Pessimistic ( tp)
The Duration of an activity is calculated using the following formula:

Where te is the Expected time, to is the Optimistic time, tm is the

most probable activity time and tp is the Pessimistic time.
 STANDARD DEVIATION AND VARIANCE

In calculating the s.d. and the Variance, we consider two

important assumptions for PERT.
• The Beta distribution is appropriate for calculation of activity
durations.
• Activities are independent, and the time required to complete
one activity has no bearing on the completion times of it’s
successor activities in the network.
PERT assumes that the expected length of a project
• is simply the sum of all expected lengths of activities in
sequence .
• Hence ,summation of all the te's incritical path gives us the
length of the project.
• Similarly the variance of a sum of independent activity times
is equal to the sum of their individual variances.
PERT CONCEPT HAS BEEN TAKEN FROM ß DISTRIBUTION
WHICH MAY TAKE ANY OF THE SHAPE

tm tm te tm
te te

s.d= (tp – to )/ 6 Variance = {(tp – to )/ 6}2

 DURATIO H.Even T.FLO
N t T.Event AT Free
Te=(To+4T EF=ES LS=LF- HES = TES =(LS- Float= VARIANC
ACTIVITY To Tm Tp m+Tp)/6 ES +D LF D LF -EF =LF -EF ES) TF - HES E s.d

0 - 10 A 0.5 1 1.5 1 0 1 6 5 5 0 5 0 0.028 0.167

10--20 B 1 1.5 5 2 1 3 8 6 5 5 5 0 0.444 0.667

0 - 30 C 0.5 1 1.5 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.028 0.167

20 - 60 D 2 3 4 3 3 6 11 8 5 5 5 0 0.111 0.333

30 - 40 E 0.5 1 1.5 1 1 2 9 8 7 7 7 0 0.028 0.167

30 - 50 F 4 6.5 12 7 1 8 8 1 0 0 0 0 1.778 1.333

50 - 60 G 1.5 3 4.5 3 8 11 11 8 0 0 0 0 0.250 0.500

10--60 H 1 2 3 2 1 3 11 9 8 8 8 0 0.111 0.333

40 - 70 I 0.5 1 1.5 1 2 3 10 9 7 7 7 0 0.028 0.167

70 - 80 J 0.5 2 3.5 2 3 5 12 10 7 7 7 0 0.250 0.500

60 - 80 K 0.5 1 1.5 1 11 12 12 11 0 0 0 0 0.028 0.167

80 - 90 L 0.5 1 1.5 1 12 13 13 12 0 0 0 0 0.028 0.167

Critical activities = 0 -30 - 50 - 60 - 80 - Sum of variance
1.
45
90 ( Critical activities) 2.111 3
CALCULATION OF PROBABILITY OF COMPLETING THE
PROJECT IN 15 DAYS :

STEP – 1. CALCULATE THE VARIANCE OF CRITICAL ACTIVITIES STEP – 2

. FIND THE SUM OF VARIANCE OF THE CRITICAL ACTIVITIES
STEP – 3. FIND THE S.D FROM THE VARIANCE
STEP – 4 FIND Z FROM THE FORMULA
Z = (DESIRED TIME - ESTIMATED TIME )/ S.D
STEP – 5 USE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION TABLE FOR FINDING PROBABILITY

Z = +ve Z = -ve

0.70
0.50 0.50
PROBABILITY =0.70 PROBABILITY =0.30
IN THIS PARTICULAR CASE

SUM OF VARIANCE = 2.111

S.D = √2.111 = 1.4 53

Z = ( 15 - 13 ) / 1.453 = 2/1.453

= 1.376

FROM NORMAL DISTRIBUTION TABLE

PROBABILITY = 0.50 + .4171 = 91.7 %

 A PROJECT HAS THE FOLLOWING ACTIVITIES
WITH THEIR THREE TIME ESTIMATES ( IN WEEKS )
ACTIVITY PREDECESSORS OPTIMISTIC MOST LIKELY PESSIMIST
TIME TIME IC TIME
A - 6 9 18
B - 5 8 17
C A 4 7 22
D A 4 7 16
E B 4 7 10
F B 4 10 22
G D,E 2 5 8

CALCULATE
1)CRITICAL PATH
2)PROBABILITY OF COMPLETION IN 27 WEEKS

CALCULATION OF te ,variance of critical activities and s.d

 DURATION
PREDECES Te=(To+4T
ACTIVITY SORS To Tm Tp m+Tp)/6 VARIANCE s.d
A - 6 9 18 10 4.000 2.000
B - 5 8 17 9 4.000 2.000
C A 4 7 22 9 9.000 3.000
D A 4 7 16 8 4.000 2.000
E B 4 7 10 7 1.000 1.000
F B 4 10 22 11 9.000 3.000
G D,E 2 5 8 5 1.000 1.000
 EF=10

2
A C
LF=10 D
10 EF=18 9 EF=23
8 G
4 5
1
5
B E LF=18 F LF=23
7
9 EF=9 11
3

CRITICAL PATH = 1 – 2 – 4 - 5 TOTAL WEEKS = 23

TOTAL VARIANCE OF CRITICAL ACTIVITES
= VAR OF A + D + G = 4 + 4 + 1 = 9

S.D OF CRITICAL ACTIVITIES = √ 9 =3

Z = ( DESIRED TIME - ESTIMATED TIME ) / S.D =

( 27 – 23 ) / 3 = 4/3
= 1.33

HENCE THE PROBABILITY OF COMPLETING THE

PROJECT IN27 DAYS
= 0.50 + 0.4082 = 90.82 %
Note: Use Normal Distribution Table to find the Probability