Chapter 2 Probability
• 2.1 Sample Space and Events
• 2.2 Axioms of Probability
• 2.3 Sample Spaces Having Equally Likely Outco
mes
• 2.4 Conditional Probability
• 2.5 Bayes’ Rule
Problem 1
All students attend the final exam, formally there are 80%
will pass it . While the 20% will have an opportunity to atten
d the make-up examination, suppose 80% of them pass the ex
am. If a student passes the exam, then he or she is happy, if n
ot he is unhappy. For a random student what is the probabilit
y that he is unhappy?
Answer: about 4%.
Sample Space and Events
Problem 2. Suppose a disease affects 1% of the population.
Mr.Smith, choose it random, tests positive.
The test, given to a healthy person, gives a false positive
one time out of ten. No false negitives.
What is the probability that he has the disease?
Why?
Answer: about 9%.
Probability theory and mathematic statistics
Probability
Sample Space and Events
Section 1.1 Sample Space and Events
Some “experiment” with a
1.Outcomes:
number of possible outcomes.
2.Sample space: The sample space Ω ,is the set of
all possible outcomes.
3.Events :
An event is a set of
outcomes.
4.The operations of events
Section 1.1 Sample Space and Events
1.Outcomes: Some “experiment” with a number of possible
outcomes.
Experiments: its outcome is not predictable with certainty
*random
*certainty
*repetition
Section 1.1 Sample Space and Events
Example 1. Choose person, test for disease.
pD (positive, has disease)
pH (positive, healthy) Four
outcomes.
nH (negative, healthy)
nD (false negative)
Section 1.1 Sample Space and Events
Example 2. Flip coin one time. Two
outcomes.
H T
Example 3. Flip coin three times.
Eight
HHH THH outcomes.
HHT THT
HTH TTH
HTT TTT
Section 1.1 Sample Space and Events
Six possible
Example 4. Roll dice. outcomes
Example 5. Choose a transistor, measure its li
fetime.
Outcome could be any positive real number .
The number
of possible
outcomes is
infinite
Section 1.1 Sample Space and Events
2.Sample Space:The sample space Ω ,is the set of all
possible outcomes.
Example 1. Choose person, test for disease. Four
outcomes.
Ω={pD,pH,nH,nD}
Example 2. Flip coin one time. Two outcomes.
Ω={H, T}
Example 3. Flip coin three times. Eight outcomes.
Ω={ HHH ,THH,HHT,THT,HTH ,TTH,HTT,TTT}
∣Ω∣=8, the size of Ω.
Section 1.1 Sample Space and Events
Example 4. Roll dice.
Ω={1,2,3,4,5,6}
Example 5. Choose person, measure systolic blood pressure(on
mm of Hg)
Ω=(0, +)
Section 1.1 Sample Space and Events
•3.Events
:An event is a set of outcomes.
Example6 Flip coin three times.
The event that a head appears on the first coin
E={HHH ,HHT,HTH ,HTT}
Special Events:
Basic event: contain one element of
The impossible event =Φ
The certain event =Ω
•An event E is a subset of
The occurrence of E: if the outcome of the expe
riment is contained in E, then we say that E has
occurred.
For example:
Do exercise
• Flip a coin three times.
Express the event that a tail appears on the first
coin.
1.4 Events operations
•
If A occur , then B must occur.
2.
3.
AB occur only if both A and B occur.
4.
For example:
Similarly, if are events, then the union of these
events, denoted by , the intersection of these
events, denoted by
Specially, if and then A is referred as the
complement of B, denoted by
For example:
The difference of complement and mutually
conclusive
A and B
𝑐 mutually
𝐵= 𝐴 conclusive
For example:
5. event subset
operations The rules of set theory
Commutative laws
𝑬 ∪ 𝑭=𝑭 ∪ 𝑬 𝑬 ∩ 𝑭 =𝑭 ∩ 𝑬
Associative laws
Distributive laws
DeMorgan’s law
_________ _________
A B A B A B A B
Venn graph
Example 1
Consider the sample space S consists of
all positive integers less than 10, let A be
the event consisting of all even numbers
and B be the event consisting of numbers
divisible by 3. Find
Example 2
Let A,B,C be three events, representing
the following event.
(1)A occur, B and C not occur
(2) A and B occur, C not occur
(3) A, B and C occur
(4) There at least one occur among A,B,C
Example 2
Let A,B,C be three events, representing
the following event.
(5) A,B and C not occur
(6) There at least two events occur
among A,B,C
Example 3
Suppose 100 products,5 defective. Pick
one product once time randomly. Let
denote the event that the product picked
at k-th time is defective. Representing the
following event.
(1) The products we take are all defective
(2) Only the first product is defective
Example 3
Suppose 100 products,5 defective. Pick
one product once time randomly. Let
denote the event that the product picked
at k-th time is defective. Representing the
following event.
(3) There is at least one product is
defective
(4) There exactly two times to take
defective products
Summary
• Experiment: random, repetition, certainty
• Sample space : discrete, continues
• Event occurs
• Event operations: demorgans’ law, venn graph
Exercise 1
Let E, F and G be three events. Find
expressions for the events so that of E, F and
G.
(a) Only E occurs
(b) Both E and G, but not F, occur
(c) At least one of the events occurs
(d) At least two of the events occur
(e) All three events occurs
(f) None of the events occurs
(g) At most one of the events occurs
Exercise 2
How many license plates are there in the
pattern?
dLLLdd d
where each d is a digit ,0 to 9,L is s letter ？
Exercise 3
An experiment consists of tossing a fair die and
flipping a fair coin if an even number occurs
and otherwise flipping two fair coins. Write the
sample space of this experiment.
