Computer project
class-10th sec-A
Name- Divyansh sundriyal
TOPIC – REAL-TIME WEATHER FORCAST
Introduction to A Real-Time
Weather Forecasting
What is Real-Time weather
Forecast ?
Weather forecasting is the attempt by meteorologists to predict the weather
conditions at some future time and the weather conditions that may be expected.
The climatic condition parameters are based on the temperature, wind, humidity,
rainfall and size of data set. Here, the parameters temperature and Humidity only
are considered for experimental analysis. The data is collected from the
temperature and humidity sensor called DHT11 sensor, which helps in detecting
the temperature and humidity values of a particular region or location. The
raspberry pi is used for storing the collected data to the cloud, with the help of
Ethernet shield for uploading the data online. The data stored in cloud is
generated in the form of CSV, JSON, XML files which is used for further analysis.
The correlation analysis of the parameters helps in predicting the future values.
The ARIMA model that gives better results for time-series data is used for
predicting the values for forthcoming.
HISTORY OF FORCAST
Prior to approximately 1955, weather forecasting was
basically a subjective art, and not very skillful.
The technology of forecasting was basically subjective
extrapolation of weather systems, in the latter years using the
upper level flow (the jet stream).
Local weather details—which really weren’t understood--
were added subjectively.
Ancient
Forecasting
For millennia, people have tried to forecast the weather. In
650 BC, the babylonias predicted the weather from cloud
patterns as well as astrology. In about
350 BC, aristoledescribed weather patterns in meterologica
Later, therophlastis compiled a book on weather
forecasting, called the Book of Signs. Chinese weather
prediction lore extends at least as far back as 300 BC,[which
was also around the same time ancient indian
astronomers. developed weather-prediction methods.
The Development of Numerical Weather
Prediction (NWP)
Vilhelm Bjerknes in his landmark paper of
1904 suggested that NWP--objective
weather prediction-- was possible.
A closed set of equations existed that could predict the future
atmosphere
But it wasn’t practical then because there was no reasonable
way to do the computations and a sufficient 3-D description
of the atmosphere did not exist.
Numerical Weather Prediction
One such equation is Newton’s Second Law:
F = ma
Force = mass x acceleration
Mass is the amount of matter
Acceleration is how velocity changes with time
Force is a push or pull on some object (e.g., gravitational force, pressure
forces, friction)
Using observations we can determine the mass and
forces, and thus can calculate the acceleration--giving the
future
The Invention of Modern
Forecasting In 1995 – 1960 :
Numerical weather prediction became the
cornerstone.
New observing technologies also had a huge
impact:
Weather satellites
Weather radar
Satellite and Weather Radars Provides a More
Comprehensive View of the Atmosphere
India
Weather
radar
Weather Prediction Steps
Data collection and quality control
Data assimilation: creating a physically realistic 3-D description
of the atmosphere called the instalization.
Model integration. Solving the equations to produce future 3D
descriptions of the atmosphere
Model output post-processing using statistical methods
Dissemination and communication
INSTALLISATION
Using a wide range of weather observations we can create a
three-dimensional description of the atmosphere…
Numerical Weather Prediction
The observations are interpolated to a 3-D
grid where they are integrated into the
future using a computer model--the
collection of equations and a method for
solving them.
As computer speed increased, the number
of grid points could be increased.
More (and thus) closer grid points means
we can simulate (forecast) smaller and
smaller scale features. We call this
improved resolution.
Climate Graph of India
Major Improvement of Weather
Forcast :
Weather forecasting skill has
substantially improved over the last 50
years. Really , show in next slide :
Forecast Skill Improvement
National Weather Service
Forecast
Better
Year’s
Why Large Improvement in
Weather Forecast Skill?
•As computers became faster, were able to
solve the equations at higher resolution
•Improved physics
•New observational assets allowed a better
initialization
A More Basic Problem’s
There is fundamental uncertainty in weather forecasts that can not be
ignored.
This uncertainty has a number of causes:
Uncertainty in initialization
Uncertainty in model physics
Uncertainties in how we solve the equations
Insufficient resolution to properly model atmospheric features.
Probabilistic Prediction
Thus, forecasts must be provided in a probabilistic
framework, not the deterministic single answer
approach that has dominated weather prediction
during the last century.
Interestingly…the first public forecasts were
probabilistic
Providing forecast uncertainty information is good….
But you can have too much of a good thing…
The END
Thanks for watching my presentation .
