COCOMO Software Cost

Estimating Model
Presentation by Paul T. Bathen
For CIS6516
“Management of Software Projects and Personnel”
Summer B, 2008
 Outline of Presentation
• Brief overview of versions.
• Summary of email from Kurt Bittner.
• Cocomo 81; demonstration
• Cocomo II; demonstration
• CoStar by SoftStarSystems.com; demo
 COCOMO Versions
• CO (Constructive) CO (Cost) MO (Model)
• First version: 1981 by Dr. Barry Boehm
– Now known now as “COCOMO 81”
• Second version: ADA Cocomo (ADA 87);
parameterized exponent reflecting more modern
practices and their economies of scale.
• Current Version: Cocomo II (circa 2000)
• Commercial take-offs
– Costar (Softstarsystems.com)
– Cost Xpert (CostXpert.com)
• Regression formula, with data taken from
historical projects and current project
characteristics.
 Email from Kurt Bittner
• “Is COCOMO II best for iterative process?”
• Yes. “(the models are) public, have evolved
over almost two decades, and are based on
solid, proven research with solid data.”
• Caveat: COCOMO II models are “post-
architectural” (best for Construction phase).
(PTB Note: Cocomo II software allows for
calculating and reporting by Early Design
and Post Architecture)
 Bittner email cont’d
• Inception phase: driven by
business/exploratory technology issues;
generally defies estimation (because so little
data exists at the beginning of a project).
• Elaboration phase: driven by technical risks
and exploration of technology issues.
• Transition phase: not largely governed by
software economics but is affected by a large
number of factors other than software
development.
 Cocomo 81 Accuracy
• Cocomo homepage: “Over 63 data points in the
COCOMO 81 calibration database, the
Intermediate form demonstrates an accuracy of
within 20% of actuals 68% of the time for effort,
and within 20% of actuals 58% of the time for a
non-incremental development schedule.”
• Kemerer 1993: “(estimating in general varies)
from as much as 85 - 610 % between predicated
and actual values. Calibration of the model can
improve these figures, However, models still
produce errors of 50-100%.”
– Source: http://yunus.hacettepe.edu.tr/~sencer/cocomo.html
 Cocomo 81
• Three calculation models:
– Basic: single-variable static model
• Effort in staff months = C1b * (KDSI) P1
• Schedule in total months= C2 * (Effort)P2
– Intermediate: Two variables.
• Effort in man months = C1i * EAF * (KDSI) P1
• Schedule in total months = C2 * (Effort)P2
• EAF = E1 * E2 * … E15
– Detailed: Intermediate + assessed per phase
(analysis, design, etc)
 Cocomo 81
• C1i * EAF * (KDSI) P1 AND
C2 * (Effort)P2
• C1b, C1i: Scaling coefficient for effort
• C2: Scaling coefficient for schedule
• EAF: Effort Adjustment Factor; 15 parameters
covering Product, Personnel, Computer, and
Project familiarity.
• P1: characterization of economies of scale: ability
to avoid rework, bureaucracy, communications
overhead.
• P2: characterization of inherent inertia and
parallelism.
• DSI: Delivered Source Instructions
 Cocomo 81
• Effort=C1* EAF * (KDSI) P1 and Sched= C2 * (Effort)P2

• * “Organic: in-house, less-complex developments with flexible processes.

Features, qualities, cost and schedule are freely changed with minimal
• overhead.
• * Embedded: typical defense community projects. Complex, requiring high
reliability, with real-time issues. Highly rigorous process. Features,
• qualities, cost and schedule are tightly controlled.
• * Semidetached: somewhere in-between organic and embedded.”

From the book Dr. Roggio loaned me

 Cocomo 81 demo
• See Excel demo of Cocomo 81
 Cocomo 81:
Limitations as years progressed
• Software reuse
• Application generation programs
• Object oriented approaches
• Application engineering (reuse, applications
translation)
• Rapid development

• Follow this link for an interesting IBM Timeline

 Cocomo 81 versus Cocomo II
Differences between Cocomo Versions*
Cocomo 81 Cocomo II
63 data points 161 data points
KDSI KSLOC
Waterfall Spiral: applications development, early
design, post architecture
Point estimates Range of estimates (one std dev)
Three "development modes" Five scale factors
Added cost drivers: DOCU, RUSE, PVOL,
PLEX, LTEX, PCON, SITE
Deleted cost drivers: VIRT, TURN, VEXP,
LEXP, MODP
Altered default values
Adjust for software reuse and re-engineering
where automated tools are used.

Accounts for requirements volatility in it's

estimates.
 Calc’s are based on SLOC
• SLOC = “Source Lines Of Code”
• Only Source lines that are DELIVERED as part of the
product are included -- test drivers and other support
software is excluded
• SOURCE lines are created by the project staff -- code
created by applications generators is excluded
• One SLOC is one logical line of code (an If-Then-Else is
one line of code)
– In Cocomo 81, known as Delivered Source Instructions
(DSI). One If-Then-Else = X lines of code.
• Declarations are counted as SLOC
• Comments are not counted as SLOC

Text from SoftStarSystems.com

 Person Months
• Default Value: 152 hours per month
– 19 days at 8 hours per day.
• Includes development & management time
 Cocomo II basic calcs:
Effort Equation for Post Architecture Model

Caveat: I have seen various versions of this calculation but I believe this one to be basically
correct, and good enough for purposes of demonstration.
Cocomo II screens
What the Cocomo II screen looks like upon starting a new Project.
Note you start out in the Post Architecture model, and there is no
Application Composition model available.
Enter a Project Name
Can’t really do much unless we add a Module, so
choose Edit  Add Module. A new line shows
up in the screen with a default module name.
1. Change the 2. Now double click on the
module name yellow rectangle under
to whatever Module Size…
you want.
This screen will pop up allowing us to choose
between Source Lines Of Code (SLOC),
Function Points, or Adaptation and Re-Use. Let’s
stick with SLOC for this module.
I have indicated my program language is C++
(this is really important to know for Function
Points), there is an estimated 10,000 lines of
code, and 20% of the code will be discarded due
to requirements evolution and volatility.
Hit OK…
The main screen is updated with the SLOC and programming
language as well as some calculated values we will decipher
later. Note that the SLOC is 12,000. Why? 
{Pertinent portion of calculation on next slide in red boxes}
Now add another module and choose Function Points.
 Cocomo II basic calcs:
Effort Equation for Post Architecture Model
This is the
default screen
for Function
Points.

Let’s look
deeper at the
Function Type
descriptions…
External Input Count each unique user data or user control input type that (i)
(Inputs) enters the external boundary of the software system being
measured and (ii) adds or changes data in a logical internal
file.
External Output Count each unique user data or control output type that leaves
(Outputs) the external boundary of the software system being measured.

Internal Logical File Count each major logical group of user data or control
(Files) information in the software system as a logical internal file
type. Include each logical file (e.g., each logical group of data)
that is generated, used, or maintained by the software system.

External Interface Files passed or shared between software systems should be

Files (Interfaces) counted as external interface file types within each system.

External Inquiry Count each unique input-output combination, where an input

(Queries) causes and generates an immediate output, as an external
inquiry type.

From Cocomo II User Manual via software

So let’s go back
into this screen
and add some
entries in the
grid.

Notice, there are

some kind of
subtotals per
line, but the
Equivalent
SLOC = 0.

Let’s change the

Language and
see what
happens.
By changing the
language to C+
+, we now have
an Equivalent
Total in SLOC.

Also, we can
see a value next
to the Change
Multiplier
button.

Let’s change the

language to
Machine Code!

Quite a
difference
jumping from
10,653 SLOC to
128,640 SLOC.

Note the
multiplier
changed from
53 to 640.

Change the
language once
more to 5’th
Generation.
So using a 5’th
generation level
language would cut
our code base by a
factor of 285 times
according to
Cocomo II’s default
estimation (not
calibrated for your
environment, not
taking into account
other factors).

Change the
language to C++
and change REVL
to 20%…
So now Module2 has F:12783 or, in other words, it’s
based on Function points (the F:) and it has an
equivalent 12,783 lines of code (10,653 + 20% for
volatility).
So how did the 12,783 (or even the 10,653) get calc’d?
Part 1 of the answer is to click on Parameters
Function Points. You will see the following screen…
These are the default values used as weighting factors
against the entries you put in. So if you entered 2,3,4
when enter in Function Point information for the first
row, the end result would be 2*7 + 3*10 + 4*15. This is
then multiplied by The Multiplier…
 Default Multiplier values per Language
Language Value Language Value
Machine Code 640 Simulation Default 46
Assembly, Basic 320
Database Default 40
First Generation 320
Assembly, Macro 213 Access 38
C 128 Visual C++ 34
Fortran77 107 APL 32
Second Generation 107 Basic, Interpreted 32
Procedural 105 Object Oriented 29
Cobol 85, ANSI 91
Visual Basic 5.0 29
High Level 91
Pascal 91
Perl 21
Modula 2 80 UNIX Shell 21
Report Generator 80 Fourth Generation 20
Third Generation 80 PowerBuilder 16
Ada 83 71 HTML 3.0 15
Fortran 95 71
Query Default 13
Basic, ANSI 64
Lisp 64
Spreadsheet Default 6
Prolog 64 Fifth Generation 5
C++ 53 USR_1 1
Java 53 USR_2 1
Ada 95 49 USR_3 1
AI Shell 49
USR_4 1
Basic, Compiled 49
Forth 49
USR_5 1
So let’s see what part of the calculation we just affected…
 Cocomo II basic calcs:
Effort Equation for Post Architecture Model

Again, we have affected the same portion of the effort

calculation as when we entered source lines directly.
So now let’s add a module and use Adaptation and Reuse…
All of these items are
associated with a non-
linear re-use model.

Why non-linear?

NASA study of 3000 re-

used modules found:
1. There is a cost of about
5% just to assess,
select, and assimilate a
project.
2. Small mods generate
disproportionately
large costs.
Cocomo II’s non-linear estimation model,
according to the Model Manual:
What % of the adapted
software’s design will
change?

… % of code that will

change?

% of effort required to
integrate the adapted
software into an
overall product and to
test the resulting
product as compared to
the normal amount of
integration and test
effort for software of
comparable size.
Software Understanding
(SU): Use the table
below to help you come
up with a weighted
average based on three
key areas…
Assessment &
Assimilation (AA): 0 to 8.
Effort to determine
whether
a fully-reused software
module is appropriate to
the application, and to
integrate its description
into the overall product
description
These last two areas have
to deal with automatically
translating code.

The ATPROD figure is in

source statements / person
month.

The Model manual goes

into more detail.
 Cocomo II basic calcs:
Effort Equation for Post Architecture Model

So via Adaptation and Reuse we have now addressed the areas

of the calculation in this blue color…
So now let’s talk about Effort Adjustment Factors (EAF)
Double click on the yellow rectangle under EAF for Module1
This screen will pop-
up. As you click on
any given button top
row button, the
button’s title will
change (Nom,
High,Very High,
Very Low, Low, etc)
AND you will see
the EAF at the
bottom of the screen
change.
I have changed ONLY
the button for RELY to
VHI and by doing so,
the EAF has changed
to 1.26.

So we just increased
the Effort equation by
26%!!!

Click OK to see the

result.
So the EAF for Module1 has changed. We also see changes on
the results to the right… NOM DEV has stayed the same; EST
DEV has gone from 48.6 to 61.6; PROD from 245.6 to 194.9;
Staff from 3 to 3.7; and risk from 0.0 to 1.7. What does this all
mean?
•NOM DEV: Nominal Person Man Months exclusive of EAF.
•EST DEV: Median Person Months inclusive of EAF.
•PROD: SLOC / EST DEV Effort. So the unit is Source Lines Of
Code per Man Month.
•Cost: If we had entered a Labor Rate, the cost would be calc’d.
•INST COST: calculated most likely cost per instruction. This
number is calculated from Cost/SLOC in each module.
•Staff: most likely estimate for the number of full-time
developers that would be needed to complete a module in the
estimated development time.
•RISK: total_risk = schedule_risk + product_risk +
personnel_risk + process_risk + platform_risk + reuse_risk.
Then total risk of a module=total_risk/373.*100.
Let’s re-visit the EAF
screen. What did it
mean when we chose
“VHI” (Very High)?
Qualitatively, that’s a
nice phrase. But what
did it mean
quantitatively?

Email received from

USC after the
presentation: the Incr%
toggles are just a
further refinement of
the “base” in
increments of 25% of
the range…
To answer that question we need to click on the above menu
choices ParametersPost ArchitectureProduct.

Note: There are other parameter menus just like the Post-Arch /
Product choices. You can see a list of those above. You can
adjust Function Point weights, EAF factors for Early
Architecture, Scale Factors, the number of hours in a Person
Month, etc.
This is where you set the quantitative measures associated with
your qualitative choices. This is how you calibrate Cocomo II to
fit your environment. You can also save your calibrations as a
separate loadable module.
“Very High”, “Very Low”, etc are ok, but what
are the details behind them? To get this answer,
you actually have to visit the Model Manual,
which is a weakness in Cocomo II. So for RELY,
here is what the Model Manual says:

So selecting “Very High” really meant “Risk to

human life” and, through the ParametersPost
ArchitectureProduct menu choice for RELY
changed the EAF contribution by a factor of 1.26.
 Cocomo II basic calcs:
Effort Equation for Post Architecture Model

When we adjust the Effort Adjustment Factors, we are impacing

the part of the Effort equation in green above…
Lastly in the Effort equation is the Scale Factors.
•If we go back to the main screen and click on Scale Factor, we
see the above Popup screen.

•Important Note: Scale Factor and Schedule are Project-wide,

not module specific!!!
Change Precedentedness to VHI. Notice that the number to the
right of the button changes to 1.24. Click OK.
Notice that some of the costs have changed. In particular, they
have gone down. By decreasing the exponent in the effort
equation, we have decreased the effort expenditure required.

Let’s see what area of the calculation we are talking about…

 Cocomo II basic calcs:
Effort Equation for Post Architecture Model
Note; this IS B shown below!

So the Scale Factor portion of the Effort Equation is now

highlighted in purple!
Again, what does “VHI” mean quantitatively for
“Precedentedness”, and what are the details?

From ParametersScale Factors, we can find the quantitative

measures shown above in the pop-up…
… and again, from the Model Manual some help
on determining how to choose Very Low,
Nominal, Very High, etc.
Let’s talk about the SCED factor, which applies
project-wide. The calculation for Schedule is:
One more input area to address on this first screen: Schedule.

If we click on the Schedule button in the upper right hand corner, we

can adjust the Schedule compression / elongation via the pop-up we
see on the screen.
Again, from the Model Manual and from the
ParametersPost ArchitectureProject menu we
can put more quantitative values to our selection.
It should be noted we have been dealing with the Post
Architecture model. An Early Design model is available as well
with only 7 Effort Adjustment Factors, no RISK assessment (that
I know of), and the same project-wide Scale Factors and
Schedule. BUT… in Cocomo II there is a separate Schedule
weight adjustment in each model.
What other information can be obtained from the calculations?
Well, for one, we know the total lines of code estimated…
We are also given a range of estimates, + / - one standard deviation
from the mean.
We can also see some reports with effort distribution, either as a
Waterfall lifecycle or “MBASE” (a spiral model), and across all
phases or for a specific phase.

So, from the above choices, let’s choose “Overall Phase”

Notice the percentages for Elaboration and Construction add
up to 100%!!! Inception and Transition are statically
configured as a percent of Elaboration and Construction, in
this case at 6% and 12% respectively.
Let’s take a look at the Inception phase in MBASE…
Totals up to 100%…
File menu options. The intriguing ones are the
ability to change the weighting factors for Effort
Adjustment Factors, Scale Factors, Person Man-
Months, and Function Points… and then save
those as your own Model for future projects.

Also, if you choose the Export option, you can

then load up additional reports via an Excel
interface (you can find the Excel file by
navigating via the StartProgramsUSC
Cocomo II).
 Parting thoughts…
1. There are limited online calculator versions of Cocomo 81 and Cocomo II:
http://sunset.usc.edu/research/COCOMOII/cocomo81_pgm/cocomo81.html
http://sunset.usc.edu/research/COCOMOII/expert_cocomo/
expert_cocomo2000.html
2. SoftStarSystems.com sells CoStar, a Cocomo II on steroids. A trial version limited to
5,000 lines of code is available. Single user license starts at $2,000!!!
3. It’s really hard getting a good handle on all the current algorithms for Cocomo II. It
varies over time, administered by fluctuating grad students, etc.
4. Home website for Cocomo:
http://sunset.usc.edu/csse/research/COCOMOII/cocomo_main.html
5. Email from USC student: There is no source code available for COCOMO II.
This would be an interesting open source/thesis project if you could get their
data!
 Bibliography
• Kemerer(1993) : Empirical studies of assumptions that underlie software
cost estimation. Information and Software Technol., 34(4), 211-18, 1992
• Software Size Estimating: http://yunus.hacettepe.edu.tr/~sencer/size.html
• COCOMO II.1999.0 Model Manual:
ftp://ftp.usc.edu/pub/soft_engineering/COCOMOII/cocomo99.0/userman.
pdf
• Cocomo II Help Manual available through the software.
• “Cocomo”, Seminar on Software Cost Estimation. Nancy Merlo-Schett.
http://www.ifi.uzh.ch/rerg/fileadmin/downloads/teaching/seminars/
seminar_ws0203/Seminar_4.pdf
• “Overview of COCOMO” by SoftStarSystems.com.
http://www.softstarsystems.com/overview.htm