Sampling and

Sampling Distributions
 Tools of Business Statistics

 Descriptive statistics
 Collecting, presenting, and describing data

 Inferential statistics
 Drawing conclusions and/or making decisions
concerning a population based only on
sample data
 Populations and Samples

 A Population is the set of all items or individuals

of interest
 Examples: All likely voters in the next election
All parts produced today
All sales receipts for November

 A Sample is a subset of the population

 Examples: 1000 voters selected at random for interview
A few parts selected for destructive testing
Random receipts selected for audit
 Population vs. Sample

Population Sample

a b cd b c
ef gh i jk l m n gi n
o p q rs t u v w o r u
x y z y
 Why Sample?

 Less time consuming than a census

 Less costly to administer than a census
 It is possible to obtain statistical results of a
sufficiently high precision based on samples.
 Simple Random Samples

 Every object in the population has an equal chance of

being selected
 Objects are selected independently
 Samples can be obtained from a table of random
numbers or computer random number generators

 A simple random sample is the ideal against which

other sample methods are compared
 Inferential Statistics

 Making statements about a population by

examining sample results
Sample statistics Population parameters
(known) Inference (unknown, but can
be estimated from
sample evidence)

Sample
Population
 Inferential Statistics
Drawing conclusions and/or making decisions
concerning a population based on sample results.

 Estimation
 e.g., Estimate the population mean
weight using the sample mean
weight
 Hypothesis Testing
 e.g., Use sample evidence to test
the claim that the population mean
weight is 120 kg
 Sampling Distributions

 A sampling distribution is a distribution of

all of the possible values of a statistic for
a given size sample selected from a
population
 Sampling
Distributions

Sampling Sampling Sampling

Distribution of Distribution of Distribution of
Sample Sample Sample
Mean Proportion Variance
 Sampling Distributions of
Sample Means

Sampling
Distributions

Sampling Sampling Sampling

Distribution of Distribution of Distribution of
Sample Sample Sample
Mean Proportion Variance
 Developing a
Sampling Distribution

 Assume there is a population …

A C D
 Population size N=4 B

 Random variable, X,
is age of individuals
 Values of X:
18, 20, 22, 24 (years)
 Developing a
Sampling Distribution
(continued)

Summary Measures for the Population Distribution:

μ
 X i P(x)
N
.25
18  20  22  24
  21
4
0
σ
 (X i  μ) 2

 2.236
18 20 22 24 x
N A B C D
Uniform Distribution
 Developing a
Sampling Distribution
(continued)
Now consider all possible samples of size n = 2
1st 2nd Observation
Obs 16 Sample
18 20 22 24
Means
18 18,18 18,20 18,22 18,24
1st 2nd Observation
20 20,18 20,20 20,22 20,24 Obs 18 20 22 24
22 22,18 22,20 22,22 22,24 18 18 19 20 21
24 24,18 24,20 24,22 24,24 20 19 20 21 22
16 possible samples 22 20 21 22 23
(sampling with
replacement)
24 21 22 23 24
 Developing a
Sampling Distribution
(continued)

Sampling Distribution of All Sample Means

16 Sample Means Sample Means

Distribution
1st 2nd Observation _
Obs 18 20 22 24 P(X)
.3
18 18 19 20 21
.2
20 19 20 21 22
.1
22 20 21 22 23
0 _
24 21 22 23 24 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 X
(no longer uniform)
 Developing a
Sampling Distribution
(continued)

Summary Measures of this Sampling Distribution:

E(X) 
 X i

18  19  21   24
 21  μ
N 16

σX 
 ( X i  μ) 2

N
(18 - 21)2  (19 - 21)2    (24 - 21)2
  1.58
16
 Comparing the Population with its
Sampling Distribution
Population Sample Means Distribution
N=4 n=2
μ  21 σ  2.236 μX  21 σ X  1.58
_
P(X) P(X)
.3 .3
.2 .2

.1 .1
0 X 0 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
_
18 20 22 24 X
A B C D
 Expected Value of Sample Mean

 Let X1, X2, . . . Xn represent a random sample from a

population

 The sample mean value of these observations is

defined as
1 n
X   Xi
n i1
 Standard Error of the Mean

 Different samples of the same size from the same

population will yield different sample means
 A measure of the variability in the mean from sample to
sample is given by the Standard Error of the Mean:

σ
σX 
n
 Note that the standard error of the mean decreases as
the sample size increases
 If the Population is Normal

 If a population is normal with mean μ and

standard deviation σ, the sampling distribution
of X is also normally distributed with

σ
μX  μ and σX 
n
 Z-value for Sampling Distribution
of the Mean
 Z-value for the sampling distribution of X :

( X  μ) ( X  μ)
Z 
σX σ
n

where: X = sample mean

μ = population mean
σ = population standard deviation
n = sample size
 Finite Population Correction
 Apply the Finite Population Correction if:
 a population member cannot be included more
than once in a sample (sampling is without
replacement), and
 the sample is large relative to the population
(n is greater than about 5% of N)
 Then

σ2 N  n or σ  σ Nn
Var( X) 
n N 1
X
n N 1
 Finite Population Correction
 If the sample size n is not small compared to the
population size N , then use

( X  μ)
Z
σ Nn
n N 1
 Sampling Distribution Properties

Normal Population


μx  μ Distribution

μ x
(i.e. x is unbiased ) Normal Sampling
Distribution
(has the same mean)

μx
x
 Sampling Distribution Properties
(continued)

 For sampling with replacement:

As n increases, Larger
σ x decreases sample size

Smaller
sample size

μ x
 If the Population is not Normal
 We can apply the Central Limit Theorem:
 Even if the population is not normal,
 …sample means from the population will be
approximately normal as long as the sample size is
large enough.

Properties of the sampling distribution:

σ
μx  μ and σx 
n
 Central Limit Theorem

the sampling
As the n↑
distribution
sample
becomes
size gets
almost normal
large
regardless of
enough…
shape of
population

x
 If the Population is not Normal
(continued)

Population Distribution
Sampling distribution
properties:
Central Tendency
μx  μ
μ x
Variation Sampling Distribution
σ (becomes normal as n increases)
σx  Larger
n Smaller
sample size
sample
size

μx x
 How Large is Large Enough?

 For most distributions, n > 25 will give a

sampling distribution that is nearly normal
 For normal population distributions, the
sampling distribution of the mean is always
normally distributed
 Example

 Suppose a population has mean μ = 8 and

standard deviation σ = 3. Suppose a random
sample of size n = 36 is selected.

 What is the probability that the sample mean is

between 7.8 and 8.2?
 Example
(continued)

Solution:
 Even if the population is not normally
distributed, the central limit theorem can be
used (n > 25)
 … so the sampling distribution of x is
approximately normal
 … with mean μx = 8
 …and standard deviation σ x  σ  3  0.5
n 36
 Example
(continued)
Solution (continued):
 
 7.8 - 8 μX -μ 8.2 - 8 
P(7.8  μ X  8.2)  P   
 3 σ 3 
 36 n 36 
 P(-0.5  Z  0.5)  0.3830
Population Sampling Standard Normal
Distribution Distribution Distribution .1915
??? +.1915
? ??
? ? Sample Standardize
? ? ?
?
7.8 8.2 -0.5 0.5
μ8 X μX  8 x μz  0 Z
 Acceptance Intervals
 Determine a range within which sample means are likely
to occur, given a population mean and variance.
 By the Central Limit Theorem, we know that the distribution of X
is approximately normal if n is large enough, with mean μ and
standard deviation σ X
 Let zα/2 be the z-value that leaves area α/2 in the upper tail of the
normal distribution (i.e., the interval - zα/2 to zα/2 encloses
probability 1 – α)
 Then
μ  z/2σ X

is the interval that includes X with probability 1 – α

 Sampling Distributions of
Sample Proportions

Sampling
Distributions

Sampling Sampling Sampling

Distribution of Distribution of Distribution of
Sample Sample Sample
Mean Proportion Variance
 Population Proportions, P
P = the proportion of the population having
some characteristic
 Sample proportion (P̂) provides an estimate
of P:
X number of items in the sample having the characteri stic of interest
Pˆ  
n sample size
 0≤ ≤1
P̂
 has a binomial distribution, but can be approximated
P̂
by a normal distribution when nP(1 – P) > 9
 ^
Sampling Distribution of P
 Normal approximation:
Sampling Distribution
P(Pˆ )
.3
.2
.1
0
0 .2 .4 .6 8 1 P̂

Properties:
 X  P(1 P)
E(P̂)  P σ  Var   
and
2
Pˆ
n n
(where P = population proportion)
 Z-Value for Proportions

Standardize P̂ to a Z value with the formula:

Pˆ  P Pˆ  P
Z 
σ Pˆ P(1 P)
n
 Example

 If the true proportion of voters who support

Proposition A is P = .4, what is the probability
that a sample of size 200 yields a sample
proportion between .40 and .45?

 i.e.: if P = .4 and n = 200, what is

P(.40P̂≤ ≤ .45) ?
 Example
(continued)

 if P = .4 and n = 200, what is

P(.40P̂≤ ≤ .45) ?

P(1 P) .4(1  .4)

Find σ Pˆ : σ Pˆ    .03464
n 200

Convert to  .40  .40 .45  .40 

standard
ˆ
P(.40  P  .45)  P Z 
normal:  .03464 .03464 
 P(0  Z  1.44)
 Example
(continued)

 if p = .4 and n = 200, what is

P(.40P̂≤ ≤ .45) ?

Use standard normal table: P(0 ≤ Z ≤ 1.44) = .4251

Standardized
Sampling Distribution Normal Distribution
.4251

Standardize

.40 .45 P̂ 0 1.44

Z
 Sampling Distributions of
Sample Proportions

Sampling
Distributions

Sampling Sampling Sampling

Distribution of Distribution of Distribution of
Sample Sample Sample
Mean Proportion Variance
 Sample Variance
 Let x1, x2, . . . , xn be a random sample from a
population. The sample variance is
n
1
s2  
n  1 i1
(x i  x) 2

 the square root of the sample variance is called

the sample standard deviation

 the sample variance is different for different

random samples from the same population
 Sampling Distribution of
Sample Variances

 The sampling distribution of s2 has mean σ2

E(s 2 )  σ 2
 If the population distribution is normal, then
4
2σ
Var(s 2 ) 
n 1

 If the population distribution is normal then

(n - 1)s 2
σ2
has a 2 distribution with n – 1 degrees of freedom
 The Chi-square Distribution
 The chi-square distribution is a family of distributions,
depending on degrees of freedom:
 d.f. = n – 1

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 2 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 2 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 2

d.f. = 1 d.f. = 5 d.f. = 15

 Degrees of Freedom (df)
Idea: Number of observations that are free to vary
after sample mean has been calculated

Example: Suppose the mean of 3 numbers is 8.0

Let X1 = 7 If the mean of these three

Let X2 = 8 values is 8.0,
What is X3? then X3 must be 9
(i.e., X3 is not free to vary)
Here, n = 3, so degrees of freedom = n – 1 = 3 – 1 = 2
(2 values can be any numbers, but the third is not free to vary
for a given mean)