BASIC PROBABILITY
THEORY
INTRODUCTION TO
VARIABLES AND THEIR
PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
PRESENTED BY:
USMAN GHANI
NOOR UL AIN
ALISHA KANWAL
SHOAIB
NAWAZISH
BASIC PROBABILITY THEORY AND
STATISTICS
There are some very fundamental terms or concepts related to
probability and statistics that often come across any literature
.Random Experiment
.Sample Space
.Random Variables
.Probability
.Conditional Probability
.Variance
.Probability Distribution( Joint and Conditional )
.Factor
Sampl
e
Space
A sample
space is a set
of all possible
outcomes of a
random
experiment
Random
VARIABLES
A random variable is a variable whose possible values are
numerical outcomes of a random experiment. Two types of
random variables are listed below:
Discrete Random Variable: It takes a countable number of
distinct values such as ( 0,1,2,3,4…..). These are usually
variables but not necessary counts.
Continuous Random Variable: The one which takes infinite
number of possible values. These variables are usually
measurements.
PROBABILI
TY
Probability is the measure of the likelihood that an event
occur in a random experiment.
Probability is quantified as a number between 0 and 1,
where loosely speaking, 0 indicates impossibility and 1
indicates certainty.
The higher the probability of an event, the more likely it
is that the event occur.
BASIC PROBABILITY
RULES
Rule No.1
Probability of an event = Number of favourable events/ Total possible
outcomes.
Rule No.2
Probability of the complement(opposite) = 1-probability of the event.
Rule No.3
Probability of independent events = product of individual probabilities
Examples:
Coin toss, Dice roll, lottery draw
CONDITION
AL
PROBABILIT
Y
Probabilityof an event given that another
event has occurred
Formula: P(A/B) = P(A and B)/P(B)
Examples: probability of rain given cloudy
skies
BAYES’
THEOREM
Formula: P(A/B) = P(B/A) * P(A) / P(B)
Application: Updating probabilities based on
new information
Examples:
Medical Diagnosis
Quality Control
PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
A mathematical function that maps that all the
possible outcomes of an random experiment with its
associated probability.
It depends on random variables X whether its discrete
or continuous.
Discrete distribution further divided into
binomial ,poison and negative binomial distribution.
DISCRETE
DISTRIBUTION
CONTINUOUS
DISTRIBUTION
INTRODUCTION TO
STATISTICS
DISCRIPTIVE
STATISTICS
TYPES OF DISCRIPTIVE
STATISTICS
Measure of central tendency:
Mean
Median
Mode
Measures of variability:
Range
Variance
Examples: summarizing exam score, describing stock prices
RELATIONSHIP BTW MEAN
MEDIAN AND MODE
FORMULA OF VARIANCE
AND STANDARD
DEVIATION
INFERENTIAL
STATISTICS
Inferential statistics is a branch of statistics that makes the use
of various analytical tools to draw inferences about the
population data from sample data.
Sampling distributions
Confidence intervals:
Population mean
Population proportion
Hypothesis testing:
Null and alternative hypothesis
Test statistics and p values
POPULATION DATA FROM
SAMPLE
THANKYO
U!
( FOR YOUR PATIENCE AND COOPERATION)
