4/2/2015
MARCH 12, 2015
• S-Sit and organize materials for the lesson… Get your journal and a
sharpened pencil.
• E-Examine and follow teacher’s directions… On your next blank page,
write today’s date at the top. Title this page ~ Probability
• T-Take the challenge! Write the CQ in journal below the title:
Challenge Question: What operation do you use to solve compound
probability if you see the word “and” in the word problem? What
about if you see the word “or”?
Warm-Up:
What do you remember about probability from 5th and 6th grade?
Make a list of everything you remember in your journal now!
REVIEW OF
PROBABILITY
PRESENTATION
PROBABILITY
Probability
is a measure of how likely
an event is to occur.
Forexample –
Today there is a 60% chance of rain.
The odds of winning the lottery are a
million to one.
What are some examples you can
think of?
PRESENTATION
PROBABILITY
Probabilities are written as:
Fractions from 0 to 1
Decimals from 0 to 1
Percents from 0% to 100%
PRESENTATION
PROBABILITY
Ifan event is certain to happen, then
the probability of the event is 1 or
100%.
Ifan event will NEVER happen, then
the probability of the event is 0 or 0%.
Ifan event is just as likely to happen
as to not happen, then the probability
of the event is ½, 0.5 or 50%.
PRESENTATION
PROBABILITY
Impossible Unlikely Equal Chances Likely Certain
0 0.5 1
0% 50% 100%
½
PRESENTATION
PROBABILITY
When a meteorologist states that the chance
of rain is 50%, the meteorologist is saying
that it is equally likely to rain or not to rain.
If the chance of rain rises to 80%, it is more
likely to rain.
If the chance drops to 20%, then it may rain,
but it probably will not rain.
PRESENTATION
PROBABILITY
Whatare some events that will never
happen and have a probability of 0%?
What are some events that are certain
to happen and have a probability of
100%?
Whatare some events that have equal
chances of happening and have a
probability of 50%?
PRESENTATION
PROBABILITY
The probability of an event is written:
P(event) = number of ways event can
occur
total number of outcomes
PRESENTATION
PROBABILITY
P(event) = number of ways event can
occur
total number of outcomes
Anoutcome is a possible result of a
probability experiment
When rolling a number cube, the
possible outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6
PRESENTATION
PROBABILITY
P(event) = number of ways event can
occur
total number of outcomes
Anevent is a specific result of a
probability experiment
When rolling a number cube, the event
of rolling an even number is 3 (you could
roll a 2, 4 or 6).
PRESENTATION
PROBABILITY
P(event) = number of ways event can occur
total number of outcomes
What is the probability of getting heads
when flipping a coin?
P(heads) = number of ways = 1 head on a coin = 1
total outcomes = 2 sides to a coin = 2
P(heads)= ½ = 0.5 = 50%
LEARNING TOGETHER
TRY THESE:
B A 1. What is the probability that the spinner
C D will stop on part A?
2. What is the probability that the
3 1 spinner will stop on
2 (a) An even number?
(b) An odd number?
A 3. What is the probability that the
C B spinner will stop in the area
marked A?
LEARNING TOGETHER
PROBABILITY WORD
PROBLEM:
Lawrence is the captain of his track team.
The team is deciding on a color and all eight
members wrote their choice down on equal
size cards. If Lawrence picks one card at
random, what is the probability that he will
pick blue?
Number of blues = 3 3/8 or 0.375 or 37.5%
Total blue
cards = 8 blue
yellow green black
blue black
red
LEARNING TOGETHER
LET’S WORK THESE
TOGETHER
Donald is rolling a number cube labeled 1
to 6. What is the probability of the
following?
a.) an odd number 3/6 = ½ = 0.5 = 50%
odd numbers – 1, 3, 5
total numbers – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
1/6 = 0.166 = 16.6%
b.) a number greater than 5
numbers greater – 6
total numbers – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
LEARNING TOGETHER
TRY THESE:
1 2 1. What is the probability of spinning a
3 4 number greater than 1?
2. What is the probability that a spinner
with five congruent sections numbered
1-5 will stop on an even number?
3. What is the probability of rolling a
multiple of 2 with one toss of a number
cube?
REVIEW OF
TOTAL POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES
PRESENTATION
TREE DIAGRAM – TOTAL POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES
Make a tree diagram to represent the following
situation:
I have 3 different colored marbles in a bucket (red,
yellow, and blue) and a number cube (dice). If I draw
out one marble from the bucket and roll the dice once,
what are all the possible
1 outcomes?
2
3
How many Red 4 1
5 2
total possible 6 3
1 Blue 4
outcomes? 2 5
3 6
Yello 4
w 5
6
PRESENTATION
AREA MODEL – TOTAL POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES
Make an area model to represent the
following situation:
I have 3 different colored marbles in a bucket
(red, yellow, and blue) and a number cube
(dice). If I draw out one marble from the
bucket and roll the dice once, what are all
the possible outcomes?
1 2 3 4 5 6
Red R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6
Yello Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6
w
Blue B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 B6
REVIEW OF HOW
TO CALCULATE
PROBABILITY OF
COMPOUND
EVENTS
PRESENTATION
“AND” VS. “OR”
I have 3 different colored marbles in a bucket
(red, yellow, and blue) and a number cube
(dice). If I draw out one marble from the
bucket and roll the dice once:
1. What is the probability of drawing a yellow
and rolling an even?
2. What is the probability of drawing a yellow or
rolling an even?
PRESENTATION
“WITH REPLACEMENT” VS. “WITHOUT
REPLACEMENT”
With replacement ~ the object is replaced
before the next object is drawn (the total stays
the same for both probabilities)
Ex. You have a bucket with 10 marbles (5 blue, 3
red and 2 green). What is the probability of drawing
a blue, replacing it, and then drawing a green?
Without replacement ~ the object is not
replaced before the next object is drawn (the
total is different for both probabilities)
Ex. You have a bucket with 10 marbles (5 blue, 3
red and 2 green). What is the probability of drawing
a blue, setting it aside, and then drawing a green?
LEARNING TOGETHER
“WITH REPLACEMENT”
VS. “WITHOUT
REPLACEMENT”
Adam has a bag containing four yellow gumdrops and
one red gumdrop. he will eat one of the gumdrops, and
a few minutes later, he will eat a second gumdrop.
a) Draw the tree diagram for the experiment.
b) What is the probability that Adam will eat a yellow
gumdrop first and a green gumdrop second?
c) What is the probability that Adam will eat two yellow
gumdrops?
d) What is the probability that Adam will eat two
gumdrops with the same color?
e) What is the probability that Adam will eat two
gumdrops of different colors?
ASSESSMENT
How long do I have? 45 mins
What do I do? By yourself, complete the Unit
5 Common Assessment
ASSESSMENT
ASSESSMENT
ASSESSMENT
ASSESSMENT
ASSESSMENT
ASSESSMENT
WRAP-UP
W- Write homework assignment in planner (Unit 5
Common Assessment due on Tuesday, April
9th)
R- Return materials and organize supplies
A-Assess how well you worked in a group or
individually
Did I/we maintain operating standards?
Did I/we work toward learning goals?
Did I/we complete tasks?
P- Praise one another for high quality work:
Tickets for a “P” performance overall
