Intro To SPC / Process Capability Studies

Process Capability Analysis

Process Capability Analysis
EWMA Chart for data
EWMA Chart for data Lower Spec
Lower Spec
Upper Spec
Upper Spec
10.7 UCL=10.68
10.7 UCL=10.68

10.2
EWMA

10.2
EWMA

MU=10.00
MU=10.00

9.7
9.7
6 8 10 12 14
6 8 10 12 14
LCL=9.324
9.2 LCL=9.324 Pp 0.67 Targ 10.000 Mean 9.9493 %>USL Exp 2.04 PPM>USL Exp 20391
9.2 Pp
PPU
0.67
0.68 USL
Targ 10.000
13.000
Mean
Mean+3s
9.9493
14.4231
%>USL Exp
Obs
2.04
2.00
PPM>USL Exp 20391
Obs 20000
0 10 20 30 40 50 PPU 0.68 USL 13.000 Mean+3s 14.4231 Obs 2.00 Obs 20000
0 10 20 30 40 50 PPL 0.66 LSL 7.000 Mean-3s 5.4754 %<LSL Exp 2.40 PPM<LSL Exp 23983
Sample Number PPL
Ppk
0.66
0.66 k
LSL 7.000
0.017 s
Mean-3s 5.4754
1.4913
%<LSL Exp
Obs
2.40
2.40
PPM<LSL Exp 23983
Obs 24000
Sample Number Ppk
Cpm
0.66
0.67 n
k 0.017
250.000
s 1.4913 Obs 2.40 Obs 24000
Cpm 0.67 n 250.000

SPC
Process
Capability

Author: Joe DeSimone – CQE, CRE,

6 Sigma MBB, PMP, CQM/E, MS, PhD

page 1
 Objectives

 Introduce SPC
 Present an SPC system
 Introduce Control Charts and procedures
 Understand Common / Special Causes
 Understand Control Limits
 Understand Process Capability
 Understand Acc’s and Cac’s

page 2
 What is SPC ?

Statistical - Process - Control

S P C

- A Method of control
- A Management technique
- An Awareness philosophy

page 3
 Process – 5 M’s + E

- Man
- Material
- Machine
- Method
- Measurements
- Mother nature

Control - The act of evaluating and responding to

changes in the process.

page 4
 Purpose of SPC

The purpose of SPC

is to shrink costs in the Hidden Factory

HF

Scrap Rework Lost Time Repair

page 5
 Variation

The Archenemy Of Quality

• Variation Represents The Inability To Perform

Tasks or Build Product Consistently

• Two Types or Sources of Variation:

- Common Cause (Natural or Inherent in the Process)
- Special Cause (Outside Disturbance or Other Source
not Inherent in the Process)

page 6
 Variation

Common and Special Cause

Pieces Vary from Each Other:

Size
But they Form a Pattern that is called a Distribution:

Distributions have Three Characteristics that can Differ in:

Location Spread Shape

page 7
 VARIATION
 “While every process displays Variation, some processes
display controlled variation,
variation while other processes display
uncontrolled variation”
variation (Walter Shewhart)
 Controlled Variation is characterized by a stable and consistent
pattern of variation over time, associated with Common Causes
 Uncontrolled Variation is characterized by variation that
changes over time, associated with Special Causes
 Process A shows controlled variation
 Process B shows uncontrolled variation X-Bar Chart for Process B

X-Bar Chart for Process A 80

X-Bar Chart for Process A UCL=77.27

Sample Mean
UCL=77.20 X=70.98
UCL=77.20 70
75
75 LCL=64.70
Sample Mean
Sample Mean

60
X=70.91
70 X=70.91
70

50
0 5 10 15 20 25
65 LCL=64.62
65 LCL=64.62 Sample Number
0 5 10 15 20 25
0 5 10 15 20 25
Sample Number
Sample Number

Special
SpecialCauses
Causes
page 8
 Let’s make some parts…..
Empirical Rule

          
X
68%
95%
99.7%

page 9
 How Do We Manage Data - Historically

Pain & Leave It Alone Pain &

Suffering It Ain’t Broke Suffering

Lower “Customer” Upper “Customer”

Requirement Requirement

THIS METHOD
Tells You Where You Are In Regards To Customer’s Needs

It Will NOT Tell You How You Got There Or What To Do Next

Pressure To Achieve Customer Requirements Will Cause One To :

1. Actually Fix The Process
2. Sabotage The Process
3. Sabotage The Data (Integrity)

page 10
 Key Component - Control Charts

UCL
CHARACTERISTIC
MONITORED

Plotted Data

Center Line

LCL

DATA PLOTTED OVER TIME

UCL = Upper Control Limit / LCL = Lower Control Limit

page 11
 Common-Cause Variation

Natural Limit

Centerline

Natural Limit

Time

• Random and Stable Variation

• Process Variation is Predictable
• State of “Statistical Control”

page 12
 Special-Cause Variation

Natural Limit

Centerline

Natural Limit

Time

• Sporadic and Unstable Variation

• Process is Unpredictable
• Process not in “Statistical Control”

page 13
 Concept of Continuous Loss

TARGET VALUE

FINANCIAL LOSS

LOWER NOMINAL UPPER

SPEC SPEC
LIMIT LIMIT

• Loss to Both Customer and Supplier Increase as

the Characteristic Deviates from Nominal
• Taguchi Loss Function
page 14
 Control Chart and Histogram

Control Capability

• Must be in Control Before Calculating Capability

• Capability Expressed by Cp and Cpk Index Ratios
page 15
 Variation
The Archenemy Of Quality

• Variation Represents The Inability To Perform

Tasks or Build Product Consistently

• Two Types or Sources of Variation:

- Common Cause (Natural or Inherent in the Process)
- Special Cause (Outside Disturbance or Other Source
not Inherent in the Process)
page 16
 Variation
Common and Special Cause

Pieces Vary from Each Other:

Size
But they Form a Pattern that is called a Distribution:

Distributions have Three Characteristics that can Differ in:

Location Spread Shape

page 17
 The Normal Distribution Curve

68.3%

95.4%

99.7%
(Almost All Measurement)

-3 -2 -1 Average +1 +2 +3

• Measure of Variability Referred to as Sigma or Std. Deviation

• Normally Distributed from Stable Set of Conditions
• Bell Shaped, Symmetrical and Unimodal (Single Peak)
page 18
Sigma = 1 Unit of Variability

page 19
= 1 Sigma (2.3232 x 6 = 6 Sigma)

page 20
 Variation and
Statistical Process Control

• A Systematic Method of Tracking, Predicting and

Minimizing
Process Variation Over Time

• It’s Independent from Specification or Tolerance Because It

uses Control Limits Calculated from the Measured Data

• Typically Two Charts are used Together:

- Average or X-bar Chart on the Top
- Range or R Chart on the Bottom
- Called X-bar, R Chart
page 21
 The Power of Sub-Group Averaging

Individual Measurements Sub-Group Averages

Average UCL LSL LCL Average UCL

LCL
Nominal USL Nominal
LSL

• Low Volume Production • Product is Produced Frequently USL

• Measurement is Destructive • Usually 3 - 5 Samples (Called Subgroup)
• Measurement is Expensive • Higher the Sample the More Sensitive

page 22
 The Power of Sub-Group Averaging

Individual Measurements Sub-Group Averages

LCL Average UCL LCL UCL

LSL Nominal USL LSL Nominal Average USL

• Smaller chance of Detecting something • Greater chance of Detecting

changing in the Process before Scrap something changing in the Process
or Rework Occurs before Scrap or Rework Occurs
page 23
 Control Chart Comparison

Individual Measurements Sub-Group Averages

IX, MR Chart Target X-bar, R

page 24
 Control Chart Types

Individual IX, MR Traditional X-bar, R Target or Nominal X-bar, R

(Can Combine Data and P/N’s)

For X the Plot Point is the X1 X1

Individual Measurement

_ _ _
Average X = (X 1+ X2 + X 3+ X j) Average = X X2 R = Range Average = X X2 R = Range

The Moving Range Plot Point is

the Highest minus the Lowest of X3 X3
Two Consecutive Measurements
Plot Points are the Sub-Group Plot Point is the Sub-Group Average
Averages and the Range within minus the Nominal or Target Value
Each Sub-Group the Range Plot Point is Still the
Highest minus the Lowest

• Certain Rules Apply for This Chart

page 25
 Control Chart Plot Points

Individual IX, MR Traditional X-bar, R Target or Nominal X-bar, R

(Can Combine Data and P/N’s)

Measurement Sample 1 Sample 2 Measurement Sample 1 Sample 2 Measurement Part A Part B

.500 .502 .500 .503 .500 .748
n=3 .502 .501 .502 .750
.500 .503 .500 .748
Plot Point for X .500 .502 Plot Point for X .501 .502 Average .501 .748
Nominal .500 .750
Plot Point for X .001 -.002

Plot Point for MR --- .002 Plot Point for R .002 .002 Plot Point for R .002 .002

Note: First Sample will not have a • Codes the Data for X Plot Point
Moving Range • Measures the Deviation from
Nominal
• Must have Similar Variation

page 26
 Control Chart Guidelines

• Don’t Confuse Control Limits with Engineering Specification or

Tolerance Limits also Don’t Confuse Control and Capability

• Plot and Connect Data Points and analyze the patterns in Real-Time as
Measurements are Taken (Too-Late & Wasted-Your-Time Syndrome)

• Calculate Control Limits using a Minimum of 20-25 In-Control Data

Points and Only Re-calculate when Substantial Changes have
Occurred in the Process (typically dash lines on the control chart)

• Document Out-of-Control Points with Appropriate Cause and

Corrective Action on the Control Chart or Associated Log

• Ensure Measurement Resolution Displays Variation

page 27
Control Chart Symbols

page 28
Chart No: SQC File No:
SPC Control Chart Target X-bar & R Cell Name:
Boeing 4000 Series
Workcenter:
Station A
Part No: (1) Operation: Part No: (2) Operation: Part No: (3) Operation: Characteristic T ype:
4087 20 4135 20 4221 20 Length
W/O No: Nominal: W/O No: Nominal: W/O No: Nominal: Unit of Measure:
123 0.5000 456 0.7500 789 0.8750
Date:
Time:
Part No Ref: 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3
1 0.503 0.502 0.500 0.498 0.752 0.874 0.880 0.876 0.874 0.869 0.879
Samples 2 0.498 0.501 0.498 0.498 0.751 0.873 0.880 0.877 0.872 0.871 0.878
3 0.501 0.499 0.499 0.499 0.751 0.873 0.883 0.871 0.875 0.873 0.877
Average, X-bar 0.501 0.501 0.499 0.498 0.751 0.873
Nominal Value 0.500 0.500 0.500 0.500 0.750 0.875
Coded, X-bar 0.001 0.001 -0.001 -0.002 0.001 -0.002
Range, R 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001
Notes
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Averages

0.010

0.005

Nominal = 0

-0.005

-0.010

Grid = 0.001

Ranges
0.015

0.010

0.005

Grid = 0.001
page 29
Chart No: SQC File No:
SPC Control Chart Target X-bar & R Cell Name:
Boeing 4000 Series
Workcenter:
Station A
Part No: (1) Operation: Part No: (2) Operation: Part No: (3) Operation: Characteristic T ype:
4087 20 4135 20 4221 20 Length
W/O No: Nominal: W/O No: Nominal: W/O No: Nominal: Unit of Measure:
123 0.5000 456 0.7500 789 0.8750
Date:
Time:
Part No Ref: 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3
1 0.503 0.502 0.500 0.498 0.752 0.874 0.880 0.876 0.874 0.869 0.879
Samples 2 0.498 0.501 0.498 0.498 0.751 0.873 0.880 0.877 0.872 0.871 0.878
3 0.501 0.499 0.499 0.499 0.751 0.873 0.883 0.871 0.875 0.873 0.877
Average, X-bar 0.501 0.501 0.499 0.498 0.751 0.873 0.881 0.875 0.874 0.871 0.878
Nominal Value 0.500 0.500 0.500 0.500 0.750 0.875 0.875 0.875 0.875 0.875 0.875
Coded, X-bar 0.001 0.001 -0.001 -0.002 0.001 -0.002 0.006 0.000 -0.001 -0.004 0.003
Range, R 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.006 0.003 0.004 0.002
Notes
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Averages

0.010

0.005

Nominal = 0

-0.005

-0.010

Grid = 0.001

Ranges
0.015

0.010

0.005

Grid = 0.001 page 30

2nd 1st

page 31
Constants for Control Limit Calculations

page 32
Part No: (1) Operation: Part No: (2) Operation: Part No: (3) Operation: Characteristic T ype:
4087 20 4135 20 4221 20 Length
W/O No: Nominal: W/O No: Nominal: W/O No: Nominal: Unit of Measure:
123 0.5000 456 0.7500 789 0.8750
Date:
Time:
Part No Ref: 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3
1 0.503 0.502 0.500 0.498 0.752 0.874 0.880 0.876 0.874 0.869 0.879
Samples 2 0.498 0.501 0.498 0.498 0.751 0.873 0.880 0.877 0.872 0.871 0.878
3 0.501 0.499 0.499 0.499 0.751 0.873 0.883 0.871 0.875 0.873 0.877
Average, X-bar 0.501 0.501 0.499 0.498 0.751 0.873 0.881 0.875 0.874 0.871 0.878
Nominal Value 0.500 0.500 0.500 0.500 0.750 0.875 0.875 0.875 0.875 0.875 0.875
Coded, X-bar 0.001 0.001 -0.001 -0.002 0.001 -0.002 0.006 0.000 -0.001 -0.004 0.003 0.002 0.0002
Range, R 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.006 0.003 0.004 0.002 0.031 0.0028
Notes
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Averages

0.010

0.005

UCL = .0031 Constants for

Nominal = 0
X = .0002 n=3
LCL = -.0027 A2 = 1.023
-0.005
D4 = 2.575
-0.010

Grid = 0.001

Ranges
0.015

0.010

0.005
UCL = .0072
R = .0028
Grid = 0.001

page 33
 Control and Capability

Control - Is the process changing? Capability - Are we making good parts?

• Must be in Control Before Calculating Capability

• Capability Expressed by Cp and Cpk Index Ratios
page 34
 Capability Roadmap - 30,000 Ft. View

What Type of Data

Do You Have ?

Attribute Data Variables Data

Collect Data Collect Data

On Process On Process

Analyze Data Analyze Data

In Excel In Minitab

State Capability State Capability

Dpu, Sigma, PPM Dpu, Sigma, PPM
Cp, Cpk, Pp, Ppk

page 35
Attribute vs Variables Data

It‘s too hard to find

variables data! Variables Data has

MORE POWER !

page 36
 Dissecting Process Capability

Supplier Inadequate
Variation Design
Inadequate
Process Margin
Capability

LSL USL

Defects

Process Capability
page 37
 Process Capability Study

LSL USL
Voice of Customer

35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52

Voice of Process

-3 +3

page 38
 Process Capability Index

Process capability relates actual product
variability to the customer specifications

The Cp index estimates process capability if the
process mean is centered in the specification
window (Process Entitlement).
Upper Spec - Lower Spec
Cp 
6( Capability )


The Cpk estimates the process capability if the
process mean is off center
Mean - Nearest
Cpk=
3( Cap )

page 39
 Process Capability Ratio (Cpk)

• Cp Assumes that the Process Average is Centered and Equals

the Target or Nominal Value

• A New Index Cpk is needed to Measure Off-Centered Processes

USL - Average Average - LSL

Cpu = -------------------- Cpl = --------------------
3

Cpk = Smaller of (Cpu and Cpl)

page 40
Traditional Metrics Are We Capable?

Crash

page 41
 Cp in Real Life


Consider the task of parking a car in your garage. If
the garage door opening is larger than the width of
the car, it is possible to park the car inside. The
wider the garage, the easier it is to park the car. If
the width of the opening was twice that of the car, Cp
would be 2.

page 42
 Will the Car Always Make It?


Sometimes, the car will not be aligned to make it
into the garage, even if there is plenty of room
available. From a dispersion standpoint, the car
can make it, but realistically, it won’t

When the location of the car, or process, is of
importance, more information is needed. We
compute capability indices that compare both the
process width and center to its upper and lower
specifications

We
We have
have divided
divided the
the task
task into
into two
two parts,
parts, so
so we
we
compare
compare this
this distance
distance toto three
three times
times the
the process
process
standard
standard deviation,
deviation, or
or “half
“half aa process”
process”

page 43
page 44
 .498 .500 .502
LSL Target USL

Usl  x x  Lsl
or
3 3

Cp = Usl – lsl VOC .502-.498 = .004

6xS VOP 6 (.0005) .003 = 1.33 Capable 4/3 = 1.33

Cpk = .502 - .501 .001 .67 Off Center

3 (.0005) .0015

.501 - .498 .003/.0015 = 2

page 45
Cp Ratio
USL-
USL-LSLLSL
-3 6(
6(σ̂σ̂)) +3

LSL USL

USL- LSL

6

page 46
 Cpkupper Ratio

USL-
USL- X X
3(
3(σ̂σ̂))
USL

USL- X
3

X +3
page 47
 Cp vs. Cpk

LSL Cp = 2.0 USL

Cpk = 2.0

Cp = 2.0
Cpk = 1.0

Cp = 2.0
Cpk = 0.0

Cp = 2.0
Cpk = -1.0

page 48
 Why Must the Cpk be atleast 1.33 ?
LSL USL LSL USL
Non conforming
Product is being made

CpK = 1.0 ( no room for any further variation CpK = .5, Off center, too much variation

LSL USL LSL USL

CpK = 1.33, safety margin – no bad product CpK = 2.0 Large safety margin – very safe

page 49
 Dept 80 and Gertrude

Dept 80 Machine Shop

Shop-Order

+/- 0.0001

+/- 0.005 ”

Gertrude 30% fallout Inspection

Machine Shop
Supervisor Dept

page 50
 Questions . . .
Can Cp and Cpk be equal in value?

Can CpL and CpU be equal to each other?

Can Cpk take on a negative value?

What’s a controversial, but easy way of

increasing Cp?

page 51
 Short and Long-term Capability Studies
Long-term Process Data for Co2

15

14
UCL=14.18

A Short-term Capability
study covers a relatively
Individual Value

13
X=12.64
12
short period of time
LCL=11.10
(Days, Weeks) consisting
11

10

9 of 30 to 50 data points.
0 50 100 150
Observation Number


A Long-term capability
Long-term Process Data for Co2
study covers a relatively
long period of time
15

UCL=14.18
14

(Weeks, Months)
Individual Value

13
X=12.64
12 consisting of 100-200
data points.
11 LCL=11.10

10

9
0 50 100 150
Observation Number

page 52
 Visualizing the Causes
Within Group
•Called  short term (st)
•Our potential - the best we can
be
Time 1
Time 2
•The  reported by all 6 sigma
Time 3 companies
Time 4 •The trivial many

st + shift = total Between Groups

•Called  shift (truly a

measurement in sigmas of
how far the mean has shifted)
•Indicates our process control
•The vital few

page 53
 Process Performance vs. Process Capability

When a process is under poor control, the
operating data shows long-term shifts and drifts
and cycles due to special causes.

The measure of this variation is called the “Total
Standard Deviation”
Deviation by Minitab

We calculate this by the usual formula:
n

 ( x  x ) 2

 i 1
n 1
This metric represents the process performance because it
includes all data points

page 54
 Performance vs. Capability
CO2 Levels for 55 Time Points

14

13
CO2-Shrt

12

11

10
Index 10 20 30 40 50

Capability: Only Process Performance:

random or short Total Variation including
term variability shifts and drifts

page 55
 Process Indexes


We will discuss indexes about process
performance and process capability

Process performance is the processes “Real”
performance (Pp and Ppk)
Ppk

Process capability is the “Potential” of the
process (Cp and Cpk)
Cpk

page 56
Process Performance and Capability

The Ppk can closely approach the Cpk
when
 The Customer specifications truly reflect
customer requriements
 The process in under statistical control
 The data approximate the normal distribution

The Cp is like a benchmark or
entitlement
 The sigma for capability is driven primarily by
random error

We would like Ppk to be very close to Cp

Statistical process control (SPC) is the
first step

Automated process control (APC) is next
if necessary

page 57
 Continuous Variability Reduction

Making parts that

“meet spec” is not
good enough for

t
en
Boeing or its Suppliers
em Cpk = 2.00
ov
pr
Im

Cpk = 1.75
us
uo

Cpk = 1.33
in
nt
Co

Cpk = 1.10

Cpk = 1.00
-3 -2 -1 Target +1 +2 +3
LSL Nominal USL

page 58