INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS

Chapter 3 PROBABILITY TOPICS

PowerPoint Image Slideshow
 SECTION 3.1

Terminology
FIGURE 3.1

Meteor showers are rare, but the probability of them occurring can be calculated.
(credit: Navicore/flickr)
INTRODUCTION

• Probability is a measure that is associated with how certain we are

of outcomes of a particular experiment or activity.
• An experiment is a planned operation carried out under controlled
conditions.
• If the result is not predetermined, then the experiment is said to be
a chance experiment.
• Flipping one fair coin twice is an example of an experiment.
MORE TERMINOLOGY

• A result of an experiment is called an outcome.

• The sample space of an experiment is the set of all possible
outcomes.
• Three ways to represent a sample space are: to list the possible
outcomes, to create a tree diagram, or to create a Venn diagram.
• The uppercase letter S is used to denote the sample space.
• For example, if you flip one fair coin, S = {H, T} where H = heads
and T = tails are the outcomes.
• An event is any combination of outcomes.
• Upper case letters like A and B represent events.
• For example, if the experiment is to flip one fair coin, event A might
be getting at most one head.
• The probability of an event A is written P(A).
PROBABILITY

• The probability of any outcome is the long-term relative

frequency of that outcome.
• Probabilities are between zero and one, inclusive (that is, 0
and 1 and all numbers in between those values).
• P(A) = 0 means the event A can never happen.
• P(A) = 1 means the event A always happens.
• P(A) = 0.5 means the event A is equally likely to occur or not to
occur.
• For example, if you flip one fair coin repeatedly (from 20 to 2,000,
to 20,000 times) the relative frequency of heads approaches 0.5
(the probability of heads).
PROBABILITY

• Equally likely means that each outcome of an experiment occurs with equal
probability.
• For example, if you toss a fair, six-sided die, each face (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6) is as
likely to occur as any other face.
• If you toss a fair coin, a Head (H) and a Tail (T) are equally likely to occur.
• If you randomly guess the answer to a true/false question on an exam, you are
equally likely to select a correct answer or an incorrect answer.
• To calculate the probability of an event A when all outcomes in the
sample space are equally likely, count the number of outcomes for event A
and divide by the total number of outcomes in the sample space.
• For example, if you toss a fair dime and a fair nickel, the sample space
is {HH, TH, HT, TT} where T = tails and H = heads.
• The sample space has four outcomes.
• A = getting one head.
• There are two outcomes that meet this condition: {HT, TH}, so P(A) =
2/4 = 0.5.
PROBABILITY EXAMPLE

• Suppose you roll one fair six-sided die, with the numbers {1, 2, 3, 4,
5, 6} on its faces.
• Let E = rolling a number that is at least five.
• There are two outcomes {5, 6} that comprise this event.
• P(E) = 2/6.
• If you were to roll the die only a few times you would not be surprised
if your observed results did not match the probability.
• If you were to roll the die a very large number of times, you would
expect that, overall, 2/6 of the rolls would result in an outcome of “at
least five”.
• You would not expect exactly 2/6.
• The long-term relative frequency of obtaining this result would
approach the theoretical probability of 2/6 as the number of
repetitions grows larger and larger.
LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS

• The important characteristic of probability experiments is known as the law of

large numbers which states that as the number of repetitions of an experiment
is increased, the relative frequency obtained in the experiment tends to
become closer and closer to the theoretical probability.
• Even though the outcomes do not happen according to any set pattern or
order, overall, the long-term observed relative frequency will approach the
theoretical probability.
• It is important to realize in many situations, the outcomes are not equally likely.
• A coin or die may be unfair, or biased.
• Two math professors in Europe had their statistics students test the
Belgian one Euro coin and discovered that in 250 trials, a head was
obtained 56% of the time and a tail was obtained 44% of the time.
• The data seem to show that the coin is not a fair coin; more repetitions
would be helpful to draw a more accurate conclusion about such bias.
• Some dice may also be biased.
“OR” EVENT

• An outcome is in the event A OR B if the outcome is in A or is in B

or is in both A and B.
• For example:
• Let A = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5}
• Let B = {4, 5, 6, 7, 8}
• A or B = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8}
• Notice that 4 and 5 are NOT listed twice.
“AND” EVENT

• An outcome is in the event A AND B if the outcome is in both A and

B at the same time.
• For example:
• Let A = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5}
• Let B = {4, 5, 6, 7, 8}
• A and B = {4, 5}
COMPLEMENT

• The complement of event A is denoted A’ (read “A prime”).

• A’ consists of all outcomes that are NOT in A.
• Notice that P(A) + P(A’) = 1.
• For example:
• Let S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
• Let A = {1, 2, 3, 4}.
• Then, A’ = {5, 6}.
• P(A) = 4/6
• P(A’) = 2/6
• P(A) + P(A’) = 4/6 + 2/6 = 1.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

• The conditional probability of A given B is written P(A|B).

• P(A|B) is the probability that event A will occur given that the event
B has already occurred.
• A conditional reduces the sample space.
• We calculate the probability of A from the reduced sample space
B.
• The formula to calculate P(A|B) is P(A|B) = P(A and B) / P(B) ,
where P(B) is greater than zero.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY EXAMPLE

• Suppose we toss one fair, six-sided die.

• The sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
• Let A = face is 2 or 3 and B = face is even (2, 4, 6).
• To calculate P(A|B), which is the probability that the face is 2 or 3,
given that the face is even has already happened, we count the
number of outcomes 2 or 3 in the sample space B = {2, 4, 6}. Then
we divide that by the number of outcomes in B (rather than S) to
get 1/3.
• Using the formula:
• P(A|B) = P(A and B) / P(B) = (1/6) / (3/6) = 1/3
• P(A and B) = (the number of outcomes that are 2 or 3 and
even in S) / 6 = 1/6
• P(B) = (the number of outcomes that are even in S) / 6 = 3/6
UNDERSTANDING TERMINOLOGY AND SYMBOLS

• It is important to read each problem carefully to think about and

understand what the events are.
• Understanding the wording is the first very important step in
solving probability problems.
• Reread the problem several times if necessary.
• Clearly identify the event of interest.
• Determine whether there is a condition stated in the wording that
would indicate that the probability is conditional; carefully identify
the condition, if any.
EXAMPLE 3.1

• The sample space S is the whole numbers starting at 1 and less than 20. Let
event A = the even numbers and event B = numbers greater than 13.
• S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19}
• A = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18}
• B = {14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19}
• P(A) = 9/19
• P(B) = 6/19
• A and B = {14, 16, 18}
• A or B = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19}
• P (A and B) = 3/19
• P (A or B) = 12/19
• A’ = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 19}
• P(A’) = 10/19
• P(A) + P(A’) = 9/19 + 10/19 = 19/19 = 1
• P(A|B) = P(A and B) / P(B) = (3/19) / (6/19) = 3/6
• P(B|A) = P(A and B) / P(A) = (3/19) / (9/19) = 3/9
• Notice that P(A|B) does not necessarily equal P(B|A)!
EXAMPLE 3.2

• A fair, six-sided die is rolled. Describe the sample space S, identify

each of the following events with a subset of S and compute its
probability (an outcome is the number of dots that show up).
• Event T = the outcome is two
• T = {2}, P(T) = 1/6
• Event A = the outcome is an even number
• A = {2, 4, 6}, P(A) = 1/2
• Event B = the outcome is less than four
• B = {1, 2, 3}, P(B) = 1/2
• The complement of A
• A’ = {1, 3, 5}, P(A’) = 1/2
• A given B
• A|B = {2}, P(A|B) = 1/3
• B given A
• B|A = {2}, P(B|A) = 1/3
EXAMPLE 3.2

• A fair, six-sided die is rolled. Describe the sample space S, identify

each of the following events with a subset of S and compute its
probability (an outcome is the number of dots that show up).
• A and B
• A and B = {2}, P(A and B) = 1/6
• A or B
• A or B = {1, 2, 3, 4, 6}, P(A or B) = 5/6
• A or B’
• A or B’= {2, 4, 5, 6}, P(A or B’) = 2/3
• Event N = the outcome is a prime number
• N = {2, 3, 5}, P(N) = 1/2
• Event I = the outcome is seven
• I = {7}, P(I) = 0 because a six-sided die does not have seven
dots.
EXAMPLE 3.3

• The following table describes the distribution of a random sample

S of 100 individuals, organized by gender and whether they are
right- or left-handed. Denote the events M = the subject is male, F
= the subject is female, R = the subject is right-handed, L = the
subject is left-handed. Compute the probabilities on the following
slide.

Right- Left-
handed handed
Males 43 9
Females 44 4
EXAMPLE 3.2

• P(M) = (43 + 9) / 100 = 52/100 = 0.52

• P(F) = (44 + 4) / 100 = 48/100 = 0.48
• P(R) = (43 + 44) / 100 = 87/100 = 0.87
• P(L) = (9 + 4) / 100 = 13/100 = 0.13
• P(M and R) = 43/100 = 0.43
• P(F and L) = 4/100 = 0.04
• P(M or F) = (52 + 48) / 100 = 100/100 = 1
• P(M or R) = (52 + 44) / 100 = 96/100 = 0.04
• P(F or L) = (48 + 9) / 100 = 57/100 = 0.57
• P(M’) = 1 – P(M) = 1-0.52 = 0.48
• P(R|M) = P(R and M) / P(M) = 0.43 / 0.52 = 0.8269
• P(F|L) = P (F and L ) / P(L) = 0.04 / 0.13 = 0.3077
• P(L|F) = P (L and F) / P(F) = 0.04 / 0.48 = 0.0833
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