Basic concepts and terminology in

Probability

By
OWEN OYESIGYE
 What is Probability; The
measure of the likelihood
that an even will occur.

Zero (0) chance of an

even to occur 100% chance of an
even occuring

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• At the mid-point (0.5), there are equal chances of an event
occurring and not occurring
• As the probability increases towards 1, it means there are
more chances of an event occurring and less chances of not
occurring.
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• Experiment: This is a process that generates
well defines “Outcomes”.

Examples of experiments;
i. Toss a Coin
ii. Roll a Die
iii. Inspect a Product
iv. Conduct a Sales Call

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 Experiments Outcomes
i. Toss a Coin i. Head , Tail
ii. Roll a Die ii. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
iii. Inspect a Product iii. Defective, Not Defective
iv. Conduct a Sales Call iv. Sale, Not Sale

Sample Space; A set of all possible experimental

outcomes
e.g Tossing a coin would result into 2 possible
outcomes
S = {Head, Tail}
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Counting Rules for Multiple – Step Experiments
Experiment: Toss 2 coins
i.Step1: Toss First Coin
ii.Step2: Toss Second coin
NOTE: Each coin has 2 possible outcomes
Lets use H = Head and T = tail
How many are the possible outcomes ?
S = {(H,H), (H,T), (T,H), (T,T)}
S=4

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Counting Rules for Multiple – Step Experiments
If an experiment has a sequence of K steps with n1
possible outcomes on the first step, n2 possible
outcomes on the second step, etc.
Then the total number of experimental outcomes is
(n1)(n2) ……. (nk)
Using the previous example
K = 2 for tossing Two coins
n1 = 2 for the two possible outcomes on first toss (Head or
Tails)
n2 = 2 for the two possible outcomes on first toss (Head or
Tails)
Therefore, the total number of possible outcomes = (n1)(n2) = 4
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Counting Rules for Multiple – Step Experiments
How many possible outcomes are there if we roll a
die 3 times?
Soln
K = 3 for 3 steps (3 rolls of a die)
n1 = 6 for the 6possible outcomes (1,2,3,4,5,6)
n2 = 6 for the 6possible outcomes (1,2,3,4,5,6)
n3 = 6 for the 6possible outcomes (1,2,3,4,5,6)

The total number of possible outcomes = (n1)(n2)(n3)

The total number of possible outcomes = (6)(6)(6) = 216

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COMBINATIONS
•Combinations is an accounting rule that
allows us to count the number of possible
outcomes when we are selecting n from N

•C = combination
•N = Total population
•n = Sample size
•! = Factorial
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COMBINATIONS

•! = Factorial
•N! = N(N-1)(N-2)(N-3) ….
•Eg. 5! = 5((4)(3)(2)(1))

•NOTE; 0! = 1

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Activity One

•How many possible combinations of picking

2 pieces of papers in a basin filled with 5
papers labelled A,B,C,D,E?

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Activity One
•How many possible combinations of picking
2 pieces of papers in a basin filled with 5
papers labelled A,B,C,D,E?

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PERMUTATION
•The combination order maters; (A,B) is not
the same as (B,A).
•The Order in which the sample is taken is
important

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Activity Two
•How many possible combinations of picking
2 pieces of papers in a basin filled with 5
papers labelled A,B,C,D,E given that the
combinations follow a certain order?

•Answer: 20 possible outcomes

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ASSIGNING PROBABILITIES
1)Classical Method or Priori Classical
Probability
Based on Prior knowledge; e.g
a)A coin has two sides (50% chances of Head,
50% chances of a Tails)
b)What is the probability of picking a boy in a
group of 6 boys and 14 girls?

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ASSIGNING PROBABILITIES
2) Relative Frequency Method – Also Called
Empirical Method.
Uses observed data or empirical data to
determine probabilities not prior knowledge
of the process.
e.g Last years data shows 5% of parts
observed at the factory were defective

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ASSIGNING PROBABILITIES
3) Subjective Method
Bases on;
i)Past experience
ii)Personal Intuition
iii)Expert opinion
75% chances that new design / methods will
create a big impact on the sales.

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Rules for Assigning probabilities
•0 <= P(Ei) >= 1
•P(Ei) + P(E2) + P(E3) + . . . . . P(En) = 1.0
Example
A die has 6 sides (1,2,3,4,5,6)
Probability of having 1 P(1) = 1/6
•P(1)+P(2)+P(3)+P(4)+P(5)+P(6) = ?
•1/6+1/6+1/6+1/6+1/6+1/6 = 6/6 = 1.0

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Basic Terms & Concepts in Probability
•Event; Each possible outcome of a variable
•Simple Event: Described by a single
characteristic
e.g Rolling a Dice can result into 6 possible
simple events
•Joint Event: An Event with two or more
characteristics
•E.g Toss 2 coins and picking (Head, Head)
•Complement of an Event A: All event that are
NOT A. 22
COMPLEMENT OF AN EVENT
Complement of an Event A = A’ (‘ = prime)
•If A = Red Card, then A’ = all others not RED
• Let’s visualize the Venn Diagram below

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COMPLEMENT OF AN EVENT
Complement of an Event A = A’ (‘ = prime)
•Let’s visualize the Venn Diagram below
•S = Sample space = everything contained in the
rectangle

P(A) + P(A’) = 1
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COMPLEMENT OF AN EVENT
Complement of an Event A = A’ (‘ = prime)

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The Addition Rule = Union of Events
•The Union of an Event = Probability of A or B
or Both happening.
•= P (A U B)

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The Addition Rule = Union of Events
•The Union of an Event = Probability of A or B
or Both happening.
•= P (A U B) and P (A n B)

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The Addition Rule = Union of Events
This helps us to compute the probability that even A
or B or both will occur
• P (A U B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A n B)

•Qn: Why do we subtract P(A n B) the intersection ?????

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Activity Two
Meal Order Male Female Total

Beans 6 10 16

Not Beans 20 14 34

Total 26 24 50

•Find the probability that someone ordered

meat or is a man.
•Let B = Beans and M = Male
•P(B U M) = P(B)+P(B)-P(B n M)
•P(B) =16/50, P(M) = 26/50 , P(B n M) = 6/50
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Mutually Exclusive Events
•Two events that cannot happen at the same
time.
Example
 Tall Or Short
Had breakfast or not
Above 20 years of below
•There is no intersection
P (A U B) = P(A) + P(B)

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Conditional Probabilities
•Knowing the probability of one event
influences the probability of another even.
P(A|B): The probability of A P(A) given Probability of B
Meal Order Male Female Total

Beans 6 10 16
Not Beans 20 14 34
Total 26 24 50
•Let B = Beans, M = Male, F = Female and B’ = Not
Beans
•The conditional Probability of a Beans order given that
the customer is a Male = P(B | M) 31
Conditional Probabilities
Calculate the Probability that the order is Beans
given that the customer is a male = P(B|M)
Meal Order Male Female Total

Beans 6 10 16
Not Beans 20 14 34
Total 26 24 50

P(M) = P(B n M) + P(B n M’)

P (B n M) = 6/50
P (B n M’) = 20/50
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Conditional Probabilities
Calculate the Probability that the order is Beans
given that the customer is a male = P(B|M)
Meal Order Male Female Total

Beans 6 10 16
Not Beans 20 14 34
Total 26 24 50

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Meal Order Male Female Total

Beans 6 10 16
Not Beans 20 14 34
Total 26 24 50

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Conditional Probabilities
Activity Three
What is the Probability that the order is Not
Beans given that the customer is a female =
P(B’|F)
Meal Order Male Female Total

Beans 6 10 16
Not Beans 20 14 34
Total 26 24 50

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Conditional Probabilities
The Multiplication Rule for Dependent Events
What is the Probability that the is both a male
and orders Beans?
P(AnB) = P(B) P(A|B) Or P(AnB) = P(A) P(B|A)
Meal Order Male Female Total

Beans 6 10 16
Not Beans 20 14 34
Total 26 24 50

P(M) = 26/50 = 0.52 P(BnM) = 0.52(0.23) = 0.1196

P(B|M) = 6/26 = 0.23 36
Conditional Probabilities
The Multiplication Rule for Independent Events
P(AnB) = P(A) P(B)
What is the Probability of Ace n Black card ?
2 black Aces in a deck of 52 cards
= 2/52 = 0.3846
Or
P(Ace n Black) = P(Black) P(Ace)
= 26/52*4/52 = .5*.769 = 0.3846

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Independent Events
Two events are independent if = P(A|B) = P(A)
This means that B has not effect on Probability of A
Example
What is the P(Ace | Black) = ?
= 2/26
P(Ace) = 4/52 = 2/26
Therefore P(Ace | Black) = P(Ace), so these are two
independent events.

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SUMMARY OF IMPORTANT FORMULAS
vii) Multiplication Rule
P(A n B) = P(B) + P(A|B)
viii) Multiplication Rule for Independent Events
P(A n B) = P(B) P(A)

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 END

Wish You Good Luck

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