ICT521 Business Process

Management
Lecture 7
Quantitative process analysis

Reference: Dumas, M., Mendling, J., La Rosa, M., Reijers, H. A.

Fundamentals of Business Process Management. Germany: Springer Berlin Heidelberg.

Compiled by : Dr. Aruni Niroshika

1
Lecture-7 Objectives

 What is Quantitative Process Analysis?

 Flow analysis
 Calculating Cycle Time Using Flow Analysis
◦ Cycle time of a sequential process fragment
◦ Cycle time of a fragment of a model contains gateways (XOR)
◦ Cycle time of a fragment of a model contains gateways (AND)
◦ Cycle time of a fragment of a model contains repetition process)
◦ Examples
 Flow analysis: scope and limitations

2
What is Quantitative Process
Analysis?
 Qualitative analysis is a valuable tool to gain systematic
insights into a process.
 However, the results obtained from qualitative analysis are
sometimes not detailed enough to provide a solid basis for
decision making.
 Sometimes you need substantiate the benefits of an
investment in quantitative terms by providing estimates of
how the performance of the process will be measurably
improved.
 To make such estimates, we need to go beyond qualitative
analysis.

3
What is Qualitative Process
Analysis?
Qualitative Analysis techniques:

 Flow analysis
 Queueing analysis
 Simulation

4
Flow Analysis (1 of 14)

 Flow analysis is a family of techniques to estimate the overall

performance of a process given some knowledge about the
performance of its tasks

 Using flow analysis we can calculate the average cycle time of an

entire process if we know the average cycle time of each task and
the probability of taking each flow stemming from a decision
gateway

 A decision gateway is either an XOR-split or an OR-split

 Similarly, we can use flow analysis to calculate the average cost of a

process instance knowing the cost-per-execution of each task or to
calculate the error rate of a process given the error rate of each task

5
Flow Analysis (2 of 14)

Calculating Cycle Time Using Flow Analysis:

 The cycle time of a process is the average time it takes between

the moment the process starts and the moment it completes.

Cycle time of a sequential process fragment:

 A purely sequential process as in Fig. 7.1. The cycle time of each

activity is indicated between brackets.

 Since the two activities in this process are performed one after
the other, we can intuitively conclude that the cycle time of this
process is 20 + 10 = 30.

6
Flow Analysis (3 of 14)
Calculating Cycle Time Using Flow
Analysis:
Cycle time of a sequential process fragment:
 The cycle time of a sequential process fragment is given

by :

CT: Cycle Time

P: Probability
T: Time (measured in number of hours / number of days)

Fig. 7.1 Fully sequential process

model 7
Flow Analysis (4 of 14)
Calculating Cycle Time Using Flow Analysis:
Cycle time of a fragment of a model contains gateways (XOR):
 When a process model or a fragment of a model contains

gateways, the cycle time is on average no longer the sum of

the task cycle times.
 In a given instance of this process, either activity B or activity

C is performed.
 If B is performed, the cycle time is 30, while if C is performed,

the cycle time is 20.

Fig. 7.2 Process model with XOR-block

8
Flow Analysis (5 of 14)
Calculating Cycle Time Using Flow
Analysis:
Cycle time of a fragment of a model contains gateways
(XOR):

 Whether the cycle time of this process is closer to 20 or

closer to 30 depends on how frequently each branch of the
XOR-split is taken.

 Therefore, it will depend on the probabilities of each path in

the XOR block.

9
Flow Analysis (6 of 14)
Calculating Cycle Time Using Flow
Analysis:
Cycle time of a fragment of a model contains gateways
(XOR):
 Example 1: If in 50 % of instances the upper branch is

taken and the remaining 50 % of instances the lower

branch is taken, the overall cycle time of the process is 25.
 Example 2: If the lower branch has a frequency of 10 %

and the upper branch has a frequency of 90 %, the cycle

time of the fragment between the XOR-split and the XOR-
join is: 0.1 × 10 + 0.9 × 20 = 19. We then need to add the
cycle time of activity A (which is always executed) in order
to obtain the total cycle time, that is, 10 + 19 = 29.
 In more general terms, the cycle time of a fragment is:

10
Flow Analysis (7 of 14)
Calculating Cycle Time Using Flow Analysis:
Cycle time of a fragment of a model contains gateways
(AND/parallel gateways):
 Since tasks B and C are executed in parallel, their combined

cycle time is determined by the slowest of the two activities, hat

is, by C.
 The cycle time of the process shown in Fig. 7.3 is 10 + 20 = 30.

 More generally, the cycle time of an AND-block is:

Fig. 7.3 Process model with AND-block

11
Flow Analysis (8 of 14)
Calculating Cycle Time Using Flow
Analysis:
 Example 3:

Fig. 7.4 Credit application process

Table. 7.1 Cycle times for credit application

process
12
Flow Analysis (9 of 14)
Calculating Cycle Time Using Flow
Analysis:
Example 3:
 Let us consider the credit application process model in Fig.

7.1 and the activity cycle times given in Table 7.1. Let us
also assume that in 60 % of cases, the credit is granted.

 To calculate the cycle time of this process, we first note that

the cycle time of the AND-block is 3 days (slowest activity).
Next, we calculate the cycle time of the fragment between
the XOR-block that is, 0.6×1+0.4×2 = 1.4 days.

 The total cycle time is = 1 + 3+3 +1.4 = 8.4 days.

13
Flow Analysis (10 of 14)
Calculating Cycle Time Using Flow Analysis:
Cycle time of a fragment of a model contains repetition
process):
 Another recurrent case worth considering is the case where a

fragment of a process may be repeated multiple times. This

situation is called rework and is illustrated in Fig. 7.5. Here
the decimal numbers attached to the arcs denote the
probability that the corresponding arc will be taken.
 More generally, the cycle time is:

Fig. 7.5 Example of a rework loop

14
Flow Analysis (11 of 14)
Calculating Cycle Time Using Flow
Analysis:
Cycle time of a fragment of a model contains repetition
process):
 In this formula, parameter r is called the rework probability,

that is, the probability that the fragment inside the cycle will
need to be reworked. This type of block will be called a
rework block, or a repetition block.
 Hence, the average number of times that B is expected to be

executed is 1/(1 − 0.2) = 1.25.

 Now, if we multiply this expected number of instances of B

times the cycle time of activity B, we get 1.25×20 = 25.

Thus the total cycle time of the process in Fig. 7.5 is 10+25
= 35.

15
Flow Analysis (13 of 14)
Example 4:
 The cycle time of the fragment between the XOR-split and
the XOR-join is 0.2 × 20 + 0.8 × 0 = 4.
 Here, the zero comes from the fact that one of the
branches between the XOR-split and the XOR-join is empty
and therefore does not contribute to the cycle time.
 To complete this, we have to add the cycle time of the
preceding activities, giving us a total cycle time of 34.

Fig. 7.6 Activity that is reworked at most once

16
Flow Analysis (14 of 14)
Example 5:
 Let us consider the credit application process model in Fig.
7.10 and the cycle times previously given in Table 7.1.

 Let us also assume that in 20 % of the cases, the

application is incomplete and in 60 % of cases the credit is
granted.

 The cycle time of the rework block is 10/(1 − 0.2) = 1.25

days. The cycle time of the AND-block is 3 days and that of
the XOR-block is 1.4 days as discussed in Example 3.

 Thus the total cycle time is 1.25+ 3+3 +1.4 = 8.65 days.

17
Flow Analysis (1 of 5)
Example 5:

Fig. 7.7 Credit application process with rework

18
Flow analysis: Scope and
Limitations
 Not all Models are Structured.

 Cycle time analysis does not consider:

◦ The rate at which new process instances are created (arrival rate)
◦ The number of available resources

 Higher arrival rate at fixed resource capacity

19