Poisson Distribution

Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution

developed by French mathematician, Simeon Denis Poisson
(1781-1840) in the year 1837.
It is also one of the most widely used discrete probability
distribution among other probability distributions. Poison
distribution explains the behaviour of those discrete random
variables for which the probability of occurrence of an event is
very small and the total number of possible cases is very large
(i.e. number of trials is very large). Poisson distribution deals
with the evaluation of probabilities of rare events
Therefore, it is used to compute the probability of occurrences
of rare events such as number of customers arrive per minute at
a grocery store, number of defective articles (say pins, blades
etc.) in a packet manufactured by a reputed company, number of
printing mistake per page in a book, number of telephone calls
per minute coming into the switch board of a company, number
of accidents per day in a busy road, number of earthquakes in a
year, number of tsunami in a year, number of suicides per day in
a particular village, number of death due to heart attack in a day
in Kathmandu, number of twin birth in a hospital etc. Here, the
occurrences of the events are rare and independent.
 Conditions of Poisson distribution
The Poisson distribution is the limiting case of Binomial
distribution under the following conditions:
 The number of trials is indefinitely large i.e.
(In practice, n >20)
The probability of success for each trial is indefinitely small
i.e. p
(i.e. p<0.05)
 (Say) is finite so that & . Where is read as lamda.
Definition: A random variable X is said to follow Poisson distribution
if it assumes only non-negative integer values 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, . . . . . ,
and its probability mass function (pmf) is given by

Where, = Mean of the Poisson distribution = Average number of

occurrences per specified interval and is called parameter of the
Poisson distribution.
Number of successes of a given event.
is the base of natural logarithm
Symbolically, if X follows Poisson distribution with parameter ‘’ then
it is written as.
Fitting of Poisson distribution
Suppose, a random experiment consisting of n trials is
repeated N times and satisfying the conditions of Poisson
distribution then expected or theoretical frequencies of
getting ‘x’ successes is given by

= ; ……….(*)
Where
Number of occurrence of given event.
= mean or average number of occurrences per specified
interval.
e = 2.7183 is the base of natural logarithm.
Total observed frequency
Poisson approximation to Binomial distribution
The Poisson distribution is a good approximation of the
binomial distribution when
(i) the number of trials ‘ n’ is greater than 20.
(i.e.
(ii) and the probability of success ‘p’ for each trial is less than
0.05 (
Then binomial distribution is converted into Poisson
distribution by converting mean of binomial distribution =
mean of Poison distribution.
Symbolically,

Note : Poisson distribution, mean is always equal to variance

Mean ) = Variance ()
S.d. =
Example 1
Between the hours 2 P.M. and 4 P.M. the average number of
phone calls per minute coming into the switch board of a
company is 2.5. Find the probability that during one particular
minute there will be (i) no phone call at all (ii) at least 3 calls (iii)
at most 4 calls (iv) more than 4 calls (v) at least one call (v) less
than 3 calls (vii) between 3 calls and 6 calls (viii) 2 or less calls .
(ix) upto 3 calls.
Solution
Let the random variable X denotes the number of phone calls
per minute coming into the switch board of a company. Then,
the probability of getting x calls per minute by Poisson
distribution is given by

Here, average number of phone calls per minute ( 2.5

(i) P (no phone call at all)
=
=
= =
(ii) P (at least 3 calls)
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
(iii) P ( at most 4 calls)
=
=
=
=
=
=
(iv) p(more than 4 calls)
=
=1
=1
(v) P (at least one call)
=
=1
=1
= 1 = 0.9179
(vi) P(less than 3 calls)
=
=
=
=
=
=
= 6. 525 =
(vii) p( between 3 calls and 6 calls )
=
=
= +
=
=
= 2.44140
=
(viii) P(2 or less calls )

=
=
=
=
= 6. 525
=
(ix) P ( up to 3 calls )
=
=
=
=
=
= 9.229 =
Example 2
It is known from past experience that in a certain plant there are
on the average 4 industrial accidents per month. Find the
probability that in a given per month there will be less than 4
accidents. Assume Poisson distribution.
Solution:
Let the random variable X denote the number of accidents in the
plant per month such that. Then, the probability of getting x
accidents per month by Poisson distribution (i.e. Poisson
probability law) is given by

Here, average number of accidents per month ( 4

The probability that there will be less than 4 accidents
=
=
=
=
=
Example 3
A car hire firm has two cars which it hires out day by day. The
number of demands for a car on each day is distributed as a
Poisson variate with mean 1.5. Calculate the proportion of days
on which (i) neither car is used (ii) some demand is refused.
Solution
Let the random variable X denote the number of demands for a
car on any day such that. Then, the probability of getting x
demands for a car on any day by Poisson distribution (i.e.
Poisson probability law) is given by

Here, average (mean) number of demands of car per day ( 1.5

(i) The Proportion of days on which neither car is used = P(neither
car is used )
= P (no demand)
=
=
=
=
(ii) Since, the firm has only two cars, some demands will be refused
if the number of demands per day is greater than 2.Hence,
P (some demand is refused)
=P
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
Example 4
Suppose on an average 1 house in 1000 in a certain district has a
fire during a year. If there are 2000 houses in that district, what is
the probability that exactly 5 houses will have a fire during the
year?
Solution:
Here, probability of a house fire during a year (p) =
Number of houses (n) = 2000
Since, p is small and n is large, therefore Poisson distribution is a
good approximation to binomial distribution.
Mean number of houses that will have a fire, λ = np
= 2000×
=2
Let the random variable X denote the number of houses that will
have a fire during the year such that.
Then, the probability of getting x houses that will have a fire by
Poisson distribution (i.e. Poisson probability law) is given by

P(exactly 5 houses will have a fire during the year) = P

= 0.0360
Example 5
If 5% of the electric bulbs manufactured by a company are
defective. Use Poisson distribution to find the probability that in a
sample of 100 bulbs
(i) none is defective
(ii) 5 bulbs will be defective
(iii) at most 2 will be defective
(iv) more than 4 will be defective
(v) at least one will defective
(vi) less than 3 will be defective
(vii) between 2 and 6 will be defective
(viii) 2 or less will be defective.
Solution:
Here, n = 100
Probability of a defective bulb (p) = 5% = 0.05
Since, p is small and n is large, therefore Poisson distribution is a
good approximation to binomial distribution.

= 100= 5
The average number of defective bulbs ( 5
Let the random variable X denotes the number of defective bulbs
such that.
Then, the probability of getting x defective bulbs by Poisson
distribution (i.e. Poisson probability law) is given by
(i) P (none is defective)
=
=
= =
(ii) P (5 bulbs will be defective)
=
=
=
=
(iii) P ( at most 2 will be defective)
=
=
=
=
=
=
(iv) P(more than 4 will be defective)
=
=1
=1
=
 =
=

(v) P (at least one will be defective)

=
=1
=1
= 1 = 0.9933
(vi) P(less than 3 will be defective)
=
=
=
=
 =
=
= 6. 625 =
(vii) P( between 2 and 6 will be defective )
=
=
= + +
=
=
= 72.9165
=
(viii) P(2 or less will be defective)

=
=
=
=
= 18.5=
Example 6
A manufacturer of pins knows that on an average 2% in
production is defective. He sells pins in boxes of 100 and
guarantee that not more than two pins will be defective. What is
the probability that a box randomly selected (i) will meet the
guaranteed quality (ii) will not meet the guaranteed quality.
Solution
Here, sample size (per box) (n) = 100
Probability of a defective pin (p) = 2% = 0.02
Since, p is small and n is large, therefore Poisson distribution is a
good approximation to binomial distribution.
The average number of defective pins (
= 100= 2
Let the random variable X denote the number of defective pins in a box
of 100 such that.
Then, the probability of getting x defective pins in the selected box by
Poisson distribution (i.e. Poisson probability law) is given by

(i) P (the box will meet the guaranteed quality ) = P (number of

defective pins per box is not more than 2)

=
=
=
=
=5=
(ii) P (will not meet the guaranteed quality)
= P (number of defective pins per box is more than 2)
=
=1
=1
=
Example 7
If mean and variance of a Poisson distribution is 3, find
(ii) (iii)
Solution
Let X be a random variable following Poisson distribution with
mean and variance is 3. i.e. .
Mean = Variance = = 3
Then, the probability of getting x successes by Poisson
distribution (i.e. Poisson probability law) is given by
(i) P
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
(ii)
= = 0.4232
 OR

=
=
=
=
=
=
(iii)
= ++
=
=
=
=
Example 8
If a random variable X follows Poisson distribution such that find
(i) the mean and variance of the poison distribution (ii) (iii)
Solution
Let X be a random variable following Poisson distribution with
parameter . i.e. .
Then, the probability function of getting is given by

(i) we have,
For x =1
=
For x = 2
=
According to question

or,
or, = 2
Mean = Variance = = 2
(i)
=
=
=
(ii)

=
=
=
=
=
=
Example 9
In a certain factory turning out optical lenses, there is a small chance
for any one lens to be defective. The lenses are supplied in packets of
10. Use Poisson distribution to calculate the approximate number of
packets containing (i) no defective (ii) one defective (iii) two defective
(iv) three defective (v) between 1 and 3 defective lenses in a
consignment of 20,000 packets.( Given that )
Solution
Here, we are given
N = 20,000, n = 10
Probability of a defective optical lens (p) =
Since, p is very small even n is not large, therefore Poisson
distribution is a good approximation to binomial distribution.

= 10= 0.02
The average number of defective optical lens ( 0.02
Let the random variable X denote the number of defective optical
lenses in a packet of 10 such that.
Then, the probability of getting x defective optical lenses in a
pocket by Poisson distribution (i.e. Poisson probability law) is given
by

=
The number of packets containing x defective optical lenses in a
consignment of 20,000 packets is
= 20,000
P (no defective ) =
=
= =
The expected number of packets containing no defective optical lenses
= 20000 =19604
P (one defective) =

=
=

The expected number of packets containing one defective optical

lenses = 20000 =392.08
P (two defective) =
=
=
=
=
The expected number of packets containing two defective optical
lenses = 20000 =3.9208
P (three defective ) =
=
=
=
The expected number of packets containing three defective
optical lenses = 20000 =0.026138
P( between 1 and 3 defective) =

=
=
=
The expected number of packets containing between 1 and 3
defective optical lenses = 20000 =3.9208
Example
3. a) Messages arrive at an electronic message center at random
times, with an average of 9 messages per hour.
i. What is the probability of receiving at least five messages
during the next hour?
ii. What is the probability of receiving exactly five messages
during the next hour?
Solution:
The average number of messages per hour ( 9
Let the random variable X denote the number of
messages such that.
Then, the probability of getting x messages by
Poisson distribution (i.e. Poisson probability law) is
given by
(i) The probability of receiving at least five messages during the
next hour is
P(X
= 1 – P(X<5)
=1 –
= 1- { + }
= 1-
=1 -
=1-
= 1-
= 0.9453
(ii) The probability of receiving exactly five messages during the
next hour is
P(X=5) =
Example
3. a) The number of accident in a year attributed to taxi driver in
a city is Poisson distribution with mean 3. Out of 1000 taxi driver,
find approximately the number of driver with: i) More than 3
accidents in a year and ii) Less than 2 accidents.
Solution:
The average number of accidents per year ( 3
Total number of taxi drivers , N =1000
Let the random variable X denote the number of accidents such
that.
Then, the probability of getting x accidents in a year by Poisson
distribution (i.e. Poisson probability law) is given by
(i) P(More than 3 accidents in a year)
= P(X>3)
= 1 – P(
= 1- {}
= 1- { }
= 1-
=1 -
= 1-
= 1-
= 0.536 or 53.6%
The expected number of driver with more than 3 accidents in a
year = 1000
= 536
(ii)P( Less than 2 accidents)
= p(X<2)
=
=
= }
= 0.0497(1+3)
= 0.0497
= 0.1988 or 19.88%
The expected number of driver with less than 2 accidents in a
year = 1000
= 198.8
Example
3. b) Customers arrive at complaint department of a store at the
rate of 3 per hour. If arrivals follow a Poisson distribution,
calculate the probability that:
i) No customer will arrive in a hour
ii) Two or three customers will arrive in an hour
iii) At least three customers will arrive in an hour
Solution:
The average number of customers arrive at complaint
department of a store per hour ( 3
Let the random variable X denote the number of customers
arrive at complaint department of a store such that.
Then, the probability of getting x customers will arrive at
complaint department of a store in a hour by Poisson
distribution (i.e. Poisson probability law) is given by
(i) )P(No customer will arrive in a hour)
= P(X = 0)
=
= 0.0497
(ii) P(Two or three customers will arrive in an hour)
= p(X = 2) + P(X =3)
=
= {}
= 0.0497{}
= 0.0497 ( 4.5+4.5)
= 0.0497
= 0.4473
(iii) P( At least three customers will arrive in an hour)
= p(X
= 1 – P(X<3)
= 1 –{P(X= 0)+P (X=1) + P(X= 2) }
= 1 - {}
=1- }
=1-)
=1-
= 1 – 0.4225
= 0.577
Example
Customers arrive at complaint department of a store at the rate
of 5 per hour. If arrivals follow a Poisson distribution, calculate
the probability that
i. No customer will arrive in an hour.
ii. At least two customers will arrive in an hour.
iii. At most two customers will arrive in 30 minutes period.
Solution:
The average number of customers arrive at complaint
department of a store per hour ( 5
Let the random variable X denote the number of customers
arrive at complaint department of a store such that.
Then, the probability of getting x customers will arrive at
complaint department of a store in a hour by Poisson
distribution (i.e. Poisson probability law) is given by
(i) )P(No customer will arrive in a hour)
= P(X = 0)
=
= 0.00673
(ii) P(At least Two customers will arrive in an hour)
= p(X
= 1 – P(X<2)
= 1 – {P(X= 0) + P(X= 1)}
= 1 - {}
=1- }
=1-)
=1-
= 1 – 0.0403= 0.959
(iii)
The average number of customers arrive at complaint
department of a store in 30 minutes (i.e. in half hour) ( 5
= 2.5
OR
= = 2.5
P(At most two customers will arrive in 30 minutes period )
= P(X
= P(X= 0)+P (X=1) + P(X= 2) }
=
= }
=)
= = 0.54325
Fitting of Poisson distribution
Suppose, a random experiment consisting of n
trials is repeated N times and satisfying the
conditions of Poisson distribution then expected or
theoretical frequencies of getting ‘x’ successes is
given by

= ; ……….(*)
Where
Number of occurrence of given event.
= mean or average number of occurrences
per specified interval.
e = 2.7183 is the base of natural logarithm.
Total observed frequency
Case I: If average (mean) number of occurrence ‘’ is given (known):
The expected or theoretical frequencies can be obtained by using
above relation (*) as shown in the above table.
Case II: If average (mean) number of occurrence ‘’ is not given
(known):
In this case, at first we find the mean of the given frequency
distribution by using the formula

Equating it to, which gives the mean of the Poisson distribution.

Example 11
Fit a Poisson
Number distribution
of arrivals to the
per hour 0 following
1 2data 3with mean
4 5 or more
Number of hours 20 57 98 85 78 62

Solution
We have,
Mean (average) number of arrivals per hour (
N=
Let the random variable X denotes the number of arrival per hour
following Poisson distribution with mean = 3, then the expected or
theoretical frequency of getting x arrivals (successes) is given by

= ; Where
= 400
= 400
=
 Calculation of expected frequencies as follows:
Number of arrivals per =
hour (X = x)
0 =
1 =
2 =
3 =
4 =
5 or more

= 400
Hence, the fitted Poisson distribution is
Number of arrivals per hour (x) 0 1 2 3 4 5 or Total
more
Expected frequency 20 60 90 90 67 73 310
Example 12
Fit a Poisson distribution to the following data. Also compute the mean
and variance of fitted (theoretical) distribution.
Number of mistake per page (X) 0 1 2 3 4 5
Number of pages (f) 40 30 20 15 10 5

Solution
Let the random variable X denote the number of mistake per page
such that i.e. follows Poisson distribution, then the expected or
theoretical frequency of getting x mistake per page is given by

= . . . . . . . (i) Where
Here, N =
If the above distribution is approximated by a Poisson distribution,
then
=

From (i)

= 120 = 120
Calculation of expected frequencies as follows:
Number of mistake per =
page (X =x)
0 =
1 =
2 =
3 =
4 =
5 =
Hence, the fitted Poisson distribution is
Number of mistake per 0 1 2 3 4 5 Total
hour (r)
Expected frequency 27 40 30 15 6 2 120

Since, for Poisson distribution, mean and variance are equal, the mean
and variance of theoretical (fitted) distribution are given by:
Mean = Variance =
BOOK KEC Publication
Exercise
Q.36. A car hire firm has two cars which it hires out day by day
at the average of 1.5. Calculate the proportion of days on which
none of the cars are used and some demond are refused.
Solution:
Let the random variable X denote the number of demands for a
car on any day such that. Then, the probability of getting x
demands for a car on any day by Poisson distribution (i.e.
Poisson probability law) is given by

Here, average (mean) number of demands of car per day ( 1.5

(i) The Proportion of days on which none of the cars are used
= P(none of the cars are used )
= P (no demand)
=
=
=
=
(ii) Since, the firm has only two cars, some demands will be refused
if the number of demands per day is greater than 2.Hence,
P (some demands are refused)
=P
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
37. An automatic machine makes paper clips from coils of
wire. On the average 1 in 400 clips is defective. If the paper
clips are packed in boxes of 100, assuming that the process
follows poisson what is the probability that any given box of
clips will contain (i) no defective (ii) one or more defective
(iii) less than two defectives?
Solution:
Here, we are given
Number of boxes , n = 100
Probability of a defective clips (p) =
Since, p is very small and n is large, therefore Poisson
distribution is a good approximation to binomial distribution.

= 100= 0.25
The average number of defective clips ( 0.25
Let the random variable X denote the number of defective clips
in a boxes of 100 such that.
Then, the probability of getting x defective clips in a boxes by
Poisson distribution (i.e. Poisson probability law) is given by

P (no defective ) =
=
=
=
(ii) P(one or more defective )
= P(X
= 1- P(X<1)
= 1- P(X= 0)
= 1- 0.778
=0.222
(iii) P(less than two defectives)
= P(X<2 )
= P(X =0) + P(X=1)
= +=
= + 0.194
= 0.972
Q.38.The chance of traffic accidents in a street of Nepal is assumed
to be 0.0005. On how many days can you expect (i) no accident (ii)
more than three accidents if there are 1000 such streets.
Solution:
The chance (Prob.) of traffic accidents in a street of Nepal (P) =
0.0005
Number of streets (n) = 1000

= 1000= 0.5
Average number of accidents in a street (
Let the random variable X denote the number of traffic accidents in a
street such that.
Then, the probability of getting x traffic accidents by Poisson
distribution (i.e. Poisson probability law) is given by
(i) P (no accident)
= P(X = 0 )
=
= 0.606
Consider in a year = 365
The expected number of days in a year with no accident
= N P(X = 0)
= 365 0.606
=221.38 221
(ii) P( more than three accidents )
= P( X> 3)
= 1 – P(X 3)
= 1 – [P(X = 0 ) + P(X=1) + P(X=2)+P(X=3)]
=1–[+ + + ]
= 1 – (1+ 0.5 + 0.125 +0.0208)
= 1 – 0.6061.645
=1–0 .9968
= 0.0032
The expected number of days in a year with more than three
accidents
= N P(X > 3)
= 365 0.0032
=1.168
Q.39. An office switch board receives telephone calls at the
rate of 3 calls per minute on average. What is the probability
of receiving (i) no calls on one minute interval (ii) at most 4
calls in 3 miutes interval.
Solution:
Average number of calls per minute () = 3
Let the random variable X denote the number of calls
per minute such that.
Then, the probability of getting x number of calls per
minute by Poisson distribution (i.e. Poisson probability
law) is given by
(i) P( no calls on one minute interval)
= P(X=0)
=
= 0.049
(ii)
Average number of calls per 3 minutes () = 3 = 9
P(at most 4 calls in 3 miutes interval)
= P(X
= P(X =0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2) + P(X=3) + P(X=4)
= + + + +
= 0.945
Q. 40. The avearage number of network error experienced in a day on a
local area network (LAN) is distributed with an average 2.4. What is
the probability that in any given day (i) zero network error will occur
(ii) at least one network error will occur (iii) exactly one network error
will occur.
Solution:
Avearage number of network error experienced in a day on a local area
network (LAN), () = 2.4
Let the random variable X denote the number of network error
experienced in a day on a local area network (LAN) such that.
Then, the probability of getting x the number of network error
experienced in a day on a local area network by Poisson distribution
(i.e. Poisson probability law) is given by

(i) P (zero network error will occur )

= P(X = 0)
=
= 0.09
(ii) P(at least one network error will occur )
= P(X
= 1 –P(X<1)
= 1- P(X=0)
= 1 - 0.09
= 0.91
(iii) P(exactly one network error will occur)
= P(X=1)
=
= 0.21
Q. 41 . Messages arrive at an electronic message centre at random
order with an average of 9 messages per hour.
(a) What is the probability of receiving at least three messages
during the next hour?
(b) What is the probability of receiving exactly five messages
during the next two hours ?
Solution:
Avearage number of messages per hour, () = 9
Let the random variable X denote the number of messages such
that.
Then, the probability of getting x the number of messages by
Poisson distribution (i.e. Poisson probability law) is given by
(a) P(receiving at least three messages during the next hour) =
P(X
= 1 – P(X<3)
= 1 – {P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2)}
=1–{++ }
= 0.997
(b) Avearage number of messages per 2 hours, () = 9
P(receiving exactly five messages during the next two hours)
= P(X
=
= 0.066
Q.42. A hospital have an aveage of 4 emergency of 4 in 10
minutes intrerval. What is the probability that (i) there are at
most 2 emergency calls in a minute (ii) there are exactly 3
telephone calls in 10 minutes?
Solution:
Avearage number of telephone calls per 10 minutes, () = 4
Let the random variable X denote the number of telephone
calls such that.
Then, the probability of getting x the number of telephone
calls by Poisson distribution (i.e. Poisson probability law) is
given by
(i) Avearage number of telephone calls per minute () = = 0.4
P( at most 2 emergency calls in a minute)
= P(X
= P( X = 0) +P(X=1) +P(X=2)
= + +
= 0.67+0.268+0.053
= 0.99
(ii)
Avearage number of telephone calls per 10 minutes, () = 4
P(exactly 3 telephone calls in 10 minutes)
= P(X =3)
=
= 0.195
Q.43. If a random variable X follows poisson distribution such
that P(X=1) = P(X=2), find the mean and variance of the
distribution.
Solution:
Let X be a random variable following Poisson distribution with
parameter . i.e. .
Then, the probability function of getting is given by

we have,
For x =1
=
For x = 2
=
According to question

or,
or, = 2
Mean = Variance = = 2
Q.44. Calculate mean and variance of a poisson variable X, if
Solution:
Let X be a random variable following Poisson distribution
with parameter . i.e. .
Then, the probability function of getting is given by

According to question

or,
or, = 5
Mean, E(X)= = 5
Variance, V(X) = = 5
Q.No.45. A manufacturer of pen drives knows 3% of his product is
defective. If he sells in boxes of 200 and guarantees that not more
than 2 pen drives will be defective, what is the probability that a box
will faill to meet the guaranteed quality?
Solution
Here, number of boxes (n) = 200
Probability of a defective pen drives (p) = 3% = 0.03
Since, p is small and n is large, therefore Poisson distribution is a
good approximation to binomial distribution.
The average number of defective pen drives ( =200= 6
Then, the probability function of getting is given by

P (a box will faill to meet the guaranteed quality)

P (number of defective pen drives box is more than 2
=
=1
= 1 –{P(X=0) + P(X= 1) + P(X=2)}
=1–{ }
= 1 – 0.061
= 0.939
Q.46. A dangerous computer virus attacks a folder conssiting of
250 files. Files are affected by the virus independently of one
another. Each file is affected with the probability 0.032. What is
the probability that more than 5 files are affected by this virus?
Solution:
Here, number of files (n) = 250
Probability of a file affected by the virus (p) = 0.032
Since, p is small and n is large, therefore Poisson distribution is a
good approximation to binomial distribution.
The average number of files affected by the virus ( =250= 8
Then, the probability function of getting is given by

P (more than 5 files are affected by this virus)

=
= 1 – P(X
= 1 –{P(X= 0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2) + P(X=3) + P(X=4) + P(X=5)}
=1–{ ++ +}
= 0.808
Q. 47. A manufacturer produces IC chips , one percent of which are
defective. Find the probability that in a box containing 100 chips, no
dectives are found?
Solution:
Here, sample size (per box) (n) = 100
Probability of defective IC chips (p) = 1% = 0.01
Since, p is small and n is large, therefore Poisson distribution is a
good approximation to binomial distribution.
The average number of defective pins (
= 100= 1
Then, the probability function of getting x defective IC chips is
given by

P (no dective IC chips) = P(X= 0)

=
= 0.36
Q.48. The probability of error in the transmission of a bit over
a communication channel is 0.001. What is the probability of
more than three errors in transmitting a block of 1000 bits.
Solution:
Here, number of bits (a block) (n) = 1000
Probability of error in the transmission of a bit (p) = 0.001
Since, p is small and n is large, therefore Poisson distribution
is a good approximation to binomial distribution.
The average number of of error in the transmission of a bit (
=
1000= 1
Then, the probability function of getting x errors in the
transmission is given by
P (more than three errors )
= P(X>3)
= 1 – P(X
= 1- {P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2) + P(X=3)
=1–{ + + +}
= 1 – 0.982
= 0.018
Q.49. Messages arrive at an electronic message centre at random
times with an average of 9 messages per hour. What is probability
of
(a) Receiving at least five messages during the next hour?
(b) Receiving exactly seven messages during the next hour?
Solution:
Averages number of electronic messages per hour ( = 9
Let X be a random which denote the number of messages .
Then, the probability function of getting x number of messages is
given by

(a) P(Receiving at least five messages during the next hour)

= P(
 = 1- P(X<5)
=1- {P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2) + P(X=3) + P(X=4) }
=1–{ + + + + }
= 0.945
(b) P(Receiving exactly seven messages during the next hour)
= P(X=7)
=
= 0.117
Q.50. On the average 1 computer in 1000 crashes during severe
thunderstorm. A certain company had 5000 working computers
when the area was hit by a severe thunderstorm.
(a) Compute the probability that less than 3 computers crashed.
(b) Compute the probability that exactly 10 computers crashed.
Solution:
Probability that computer crashed (p) =
Number of working computers (n ) = 5000
Averages number of computer crashed ( = n p = 5000
=5
Let X be a random variable which denote the number of computer
crashed .
Then, the probability function of getting x number of computer
crashed is given by
(a) P(probability that less than 3 computers crashed)
= P(X<3)
= P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2)
= + +
= 0.124
(b) P(exactly 10 computers crashed)
= P(X=10)
=
= 0.018