PROBLEM SOLVING AND
DECISION MAKING
BY
EKONG NANCY
INTRODUCTION
Problem – solving and Decisions making are
usually concerned with the manager’s ability
to choose issues which require attention,
setting goals and objective, finding or
designing suitable courses of action, and
evaluating and choosing among alternative
actions.
INTRODUCTION
While the first three of these activities - fixing
agendas, setting goals, and designing actions--
are usually known as the art problem solving;
The last, evaluating and choosing alternatives
is concerned with Decision Making.
PROBLEM SOLVING
• This is the application of traditions and facts
to explain and solve new events or predict
consequences from known conditions.
CONDITIONS FOR PROBLEM SOLVING
The task of problem- solving requires
Prediction, analysis of facts and principles to
develop cause – effect relationship in physical
phenomena of the environment
problems occurs when there is an obstacle to
reaching the goal- physical, social
PHASES OF PROBLEM- SOLVING
Confrontation by the problem- solving process
is initiated by felt needs or problems in the
environment which calls for solutions
Search for the solution-this entails the analysis
of the situation and the identification of the
problem in definite terms
Solution of the problem- impediments are
eliminated and a state of satisfaction is
reached.
Verification- final testing of the solution or
elaboration of details.
DECISION MAKING
This is the selection of courses of action
amongst all possible alternatives; it is the crux
of planning. The existence of a plan cannot be
adjudged to until a decision-a commitment of
resources, direction or reputation is made. At
best, it could be said that only planning
studies and analysis exist.
TYPES OF DECISIONS
Decision making could either be programmed;
this is used for structured or programmed
routine and repetitive work and reordering of
standard inventory items.
Non-programmed decision making; on the
other hand is used for novel, ill defined
situations of a non reoccurring nature.
STEPS TO DECISION MAKING
There are six steps to making an effective
decision, these are;
Creating a constructive environment.
Generating good alternatives.
Exploring these alternatives.
Choosing the best alternative.
Checking the decision.
Communicating the decision, and taking
action(s).
STEP 1: CREATING A CONSTRUCTIVE
ENVIRONMENT
This is done through the following;-
Establish objective
Agree on the process
Involve the right people
Allow opinions to be heard
Ensure that the right questions are asked
Use creativity tools
STEP 2: GENERATE GOOD
ALTERNATIVES
• This step is still critical to making an effective
decision. The more options considered the
more comprehensive the final decision.
• When alternatives are generated, the
manager is forced to dig deeper and to look at
the problem from different angles.
TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES FOR
DEVELOPING GOOD ALTERNATIVES
The following are some of the major
tools and techniques for developing
good alternatives
Brainstorming
This is probably the most popular method
of generating ideas.
Reserve Brainstorming
This works in a similar way however, it
starts by asking people to brainstorm on
how to achieve the opposite outcome
from the one needed, and then reversing
these actions.
CONSIDERING DIFFERENT
PERSPECTIVES
The Reframing Matrix uses 4 Ps (product, planning,
potential, and people) as the basis for gathering
different perspectives. This could be done by asking
outsiders to join in the discussions, or asking existing
participants to adopt different functional perspectives
(for example, have a marketing person speak from the
viewpoint of a financial manager).
If there are limited options, or an unsatisfactory
alternative, use a Concept Fan to take a step back
from the problem, and approach it from a wider
perspective. This often helps when the people
involved in the decision are too close to the problem.
Appreciative Inquiry ensures that the
manager looks at the problem based on
what's ‘going right,' rather than what's ‘going
wrong.'
Organizing Ideas
This is especially helpful when large numbers
of ideas are involved. Sometimes separate
ideas could be combined into one
comprehensive alternative.
STEP 3: EXPLORE THE ALTERNATIVES
If satisfied that good selection of realistic
alternatives has been done, the manager may
need to evaluate the feasibility, risks, and
implications of each choice. Some of the most
popular and effective analytical tools are;
Six Thinking Hats
This helps in evaluating the consequences of a decision
by looking at the alternatives from different
perspectives.
Impact Analysis
It is a useful technique for brainstorming on the
‘unexpected' consequences that may arise from a
decision.
VALIDATION
Determine if resources are adequate, if the
solution matches objectives, and if the
decision is likely to work in the long term.
Think about the questions to be asked to
evaluate an alternative properly.
Assess pros and cons of each option
Examine the financial feasibility of an
alternative.
STEP 4: CHOOSE THE BEST
ALTERNATIVE
Once evaluation of the alternatives is concluded, the next step is
to choose between them. The choice may be obvious.
However, if it is not, these tools will help:
Grid Analysis
Also known as a decision matrix, is a key tool for this type of
evaluation. It's invaluable because it helps in bringing
disparate factors into decision-making process in a reliable
and rigorous way.
Paired Comparison Analysis
determine the relative importance of various factors. This is
used in comparing unlike factors, and deciding which ones
should carry the highest weight in decision making.
Decision Trees
It is also useful in choosing between options. These help in
laying out the different options open, and bring the likelihood
of project success or failure into the decision making process.
TOOLS FOR EVALUATING GROUP
DECISIONS
For group decisions, some excellent
evaluation methods are available. When
decision criteria are subjective, it is critical
that consensus are gained, the manager could
use techniques like Nominal Group Technique
and Multi-Voting. These methods help a
group in agreeing on priorities to enable them
assign resources and funds to critical areas.
TOOLS FOR EVALUATING GROUP
DECISIONS CONT’D
The Delphi Technique uses multiple cycles of
anonymous written discussion and argument,
managed by a facilitator. Participants in the
process do not meet, and sometimes they do not
even know who else is involved. The facilitator
controls the process, and manages the flow and
organization of information. This is useful where
there is need to bring the opinions of many
different experts into the decision-making
process. It's particularly useful where some of
these experts do not get on!
STEP 5: CHECK THE DECISION
At this stage, three major steps are used to determine the
effectiveness of the decision. These are;
The intuitive step, which involves quietly, and
methodically testing the assumptions and the decisions
made against experience, and thoroughly reviewing and
exploring all doubts.
The use of the “Blind spot” Analysis to review whether
common decision-making problems like over-confidence,
escalating commitment, or groupthink may have
undermined the decision-making process.
The use of the Ladder of Inference to check through the
logical structure of the decision with a view to ensuring
that a well-founded and consistent decision emerges at
the end of the decision-making process.
STEP 6: COMMUNICATE THE
DECISION, AND MOVE TO ACTION!
At this point, it is important to
educate those affected by the
decisions and the
implementers.
Discuss reasons why such
alternative was chosen. The
more information provided
about risks and projected
benefits, the more likely people
are to support the decision.
DECISION MAKING PROCESS
The following have been identified as the
processes that will lead to rational decision
making;
Premising
Identifying alternatives
Evaluating alternatives in terms of goals
sought
Choosing an alternative
RATIONALITY IN DECISION MAKING
It is a logical and systematic decision-making
process which calls for alternative courses of
action under existing circumstances or
limitations. To achieve this, there must be
adequate information and the ability to analyze,
evaluate in the light of the goal sought and the
desire to solve the problem through the
selection of the best alternative available.
It is a step by step method of taking decision
which evaluates the pros and coins of each
proposed solution and picks the most suitable
solution.
LIMITED OR “BOUNDED
RATIONALITY”
The manager’s strength in decision making is
limited or bounded by some factors which are
sometimes beyond him. These factors are; time,
information and certainty.
These sometimes allow the manager’s dislike for
risk – the desire to play safe to interfere with the
desire to reach the best solution under the
circumstance. According to Herbert Simon, this is
called “satisficing “- picking a course of action
that is satisfactory or good enough under the
circumstance.
DEVELOPING ALTERNATIVES
Alternatives for every course of action abounds.
The manager’s ability to identify alternative to a
course of action could be a pointer to the fact
that the existing method is probably wrong.
It is a reflection of the fact that the manager has
not thought hard or critically explores alternative
courses of action.
The ability to develop alternatives is often as
important as being able to select correctly among
all of them.
However, ingenuity, research and common sense
will often expose so many choices that cannot be
adequately evaluated without the analysis of the
strategic or limiting factors.
LIMITING FACTOR
This is something that stands in the way of
accomplishing a desired objective.
Recognition of the limiting factors in a
situation makes it possible for the search for
alternatives to be narrowed to those that will
overcome the limiting factors.
The principle of limiting factor states that by
recognizing and overcoming those factors that
stand critically in the way of a goal, the best
alternative course of action could be selected.
EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVES
Once appropriate alternatives have been
established, such alternatives must be
evaluated. This is to enable the manager
select the one that will best contribute to the
realization of the goal. This is known as a
point of ultimate decision making.
MAJOR FACTORS IN EVALUATING
DECISION
In evaluation of decisions, two major factors come to
play. These are
Quantity factors
These are factors that could be measured in
numerical terms such as time or other fixed
operating costs.
Intangible factors
These on the other hand are difficult to measure
numerically. Some of them are quality of labour
relations, the risk of technological change or
international political climate.
APPROACHES TO SELECTION OF
ALTERNATIVES
There are three approaches used in selecting
alternatives, these are;
Experience
Experimentation
Research
Analysis.
CONCLUSION
Problem – Solving and Decision-Making are the
determining factors for the efficiency of a
leader or Manager. It is the crux of leadership
and managerial roles. Little wonder then that
the world over, leaders and managers alike
are judged by the quality of their Problem-
Solving and Decision –Making skills
