Bahir Dar University

IDRMFSS

Modeling Terrestrial Ecological Security in Beshilo

River Watershed Using Remote Sensing

By: Abel Balew

Advisors: Dr. Woubet Gashaw
Dr. Abraham Mebrat
http://bdu.edu.et
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 Profile
Abel Balew Woubet Gashew (Ph.D.; Assistant Research Scientist, NASA)
• 20 years of experience (2004-2024; 5 years of teaching at the
• Assistant professor of University of Gondar & Bahir Dar University & 15 years of
Remote Sensing & research in USA universities and NASA)
Geoinformatics at • 15 research projects (10 past, 2 current & 3 pending for
funding)
Woldia University
• 20 publications (16 peer-reviewed journal articles, 1 book
• 15 research works chapter, & 5 conference papers)
• 11 publications • 32 presentations (national & international conferences)
Abraham Mebrat (Ph.D.; Associate Professor at IDRMFSS, Bahir
• 11 years of Dar University)
experiences • 20 research works
• 6 project works
• 13 publications
• 21 experience (17 BDU)
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 Outline
• Introduction
 Background of the study
 Statement of the problem
 Objectives of the study
• Materials and Methods
 Study area description
 Research approach and design
 Data sources and preprocessing
 Data analysis and interpretation

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 Background of the study

• Terrestrial ecosystems cover about 148 million km2 of the Earth’s surface (Levin, 2013).
• However, it continuously degraded due to natural and anthropogenic factors (Khan et al.,
2021; Shittu et al., 2021; Weber & Sciubba, 2019).

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 Ecological environment degradation
Cause Effects
• Human population growth • Degrading ecosystem and their services
• Deforestation • Habitat and biodiversity loss
• Rapid urban expansion • Disruption of the ecosystem balance
• • Affect quality and health of ecosystem and sustainable
Agricultural land expansions
resource utilization
• Expansion of industries • Vulnerability to natural disasters
• Economic growth • Ecosystem fragmentation and extinction of native plant
• Climate change species
• Vulnerable to natural hazard • Affect environment’s carrying capacity and ecosystem
• Expansion of invasive species resilience, and collapse ecosystem functions
• • Affect livelihoods and food security, sustainable socio-
Lack of appropriate ecological
economic and environmental development and human
environment and land use policies
well-being, and exacerbates social tensions and conflicts

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 Con’t…
• Ecological security can be assessed using mathematical models (W. Lu et al., 2019) like
PSR, DPSIR, gray correlation method, matter element analysis, PCA and SPCA.
• Ecological models (Wang et al., 2019) like ecological footprint, landscape analysis,
ecological carrying capacity, ecological security pattern, and ecosystem service value.
• Remote sensing (C. Liu et al., 2019) like RSEI and MRSEI.
• Scenario simulation and prediction (He et al., 2021).

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 Statement of the problem
• Vegetation degradation and deforestation are Ethiopia’s environmental problems.
• Rapid human population growth and their activities and interaction with the natural
environment are the underlying causes of vegetation degradation (Belayneh et al., 2020).
• In BRW, rapid urbanization and expansion of agricultural land increase deforestation and
vegetation degradation. This increases ecological environment degradation.
• Degradation of ecological environment increases soil erosion, soil salinity, and land
desertification, and affects soil fertility. This leads to a decline in agricultural production,
increases food insecurity, and affects socio-economic development.

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 Con’t…
• The degradation of ecological environment causes loss of biodiversity and wildlife
habitats, soil degradation, and affects the ecosystem.
• These affect ecosystem instability and damage ecological environment resources, human
well-being, and sustainable socio-economic and eco-environmental development.
• All these affect the ecological security of the study area.
• Therefore, monitoring and modeling TES and the driver factors is vital in achieving
sustainable social, economic, and eco-environmental development.

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 Con’t…
• ES indicates the status of ecology and ecosystems, and the use of ecological environment
resources. It also reflects the impacts of climate change and human interference.
• Analyzing and modeling ES is also essential to minimize the effects of climate change and
ecological risks, ensuring human well-being and improving biodiversity, protecting the
ecological environment, and restoring the fragile ecological environment.
• Though many studies have been conducted on ecological security in many parts of the
world, to my knowledge, studies have not yet to be conducted in Ethiopia.
• In Ethiopia, few researches were conducted on ESV (Gashaw et al., 2018; Godebo et al.,
2018; Kindu et al., 2016; Tolessa et al., 2017; Woldeyohannes et al., 2020).

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 Con’t…
• ES is complex due to the interaction between natural, social, economic, and env’t factors.
• Geographic heterogeneity, scale variation, and landscape complexity.
• Variations in socio-economic development, human population growth, awareness of
societies, topographic setting, and ecological environment strategies and policies that
affect ecological security vary from local to global levels.
• Previous studies used a single model to evaluate ecological security.
• The study will use the landscape ecological security index (LESI), modified remote
sensing ecological security index (MRSEI), and Driver force Pressure State Impact
Response Management (DPSIRM) models to analyze and simulate ES in BRW.

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 Objectives of the study
General objective
• To develop a remote sensing model for assessing and monitoring the ecological security
of the terrestrial ecosystems within the Beshilo River watershed.
Specific objectives
• To analyze ecological risk in the Beshilo River watershed
• To analyze ecosystem services in the Beshilo River watershed
• To analyze ecological security patterns in the Beshilo River watershed
• To model ecological security in the Beshilo River watershed
• To simulate ecological security early warning in the Beshilo River watershed

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 Significance of the study
• The study results provide information about ecological environment degradation and
ecological risk, ESs, ESP, ES and ESEW in the study area.
• Helps local and regional land management and environment experts to make the
communities aware of eco-environmental management and protection, and use it to
formulate practicable sustainable land management policies and develop ecological
environment strategies and policies.
• So, it is essential to formulate ecological restoration and protection policies.
• Research on ecological security has not yet been conducted in Ethiopia, and thus, this
study will be used as a base for further investigation.

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 Scope of the study
• The area is selected as a study site because of its topography, vegetation and ecosystem,
climate characteristics, and diversified landscape pattern, vulnerable to ecological land
degradation.
• The study will investigate the ecological land degradation of BRW, ecological risk,
ecosystem service and value, and the ecological security pattern from 1993 to 2033.
• The ESEW evaluation index will be constructed, and the scenario will be simulated for
sustainable eco-environmental and socio-economic development in BRW.
• The status of ES will be analyzed, and a scenario will be developed. The study will use
integrated approaches of ecological and remote sensing models.

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 Materials and Methods
Description of the study area • Elevation: 1201–4260 m amsl
• Location: 10° 52' 34.73" N to 11° 56' 59.41" N • Agroecology: Kola (259.27), Weyna Dega
and 38° 12' 40.31" E to 39° 40' 28.79" E. (4896.62), Dega (5482) and Wurch (1601.64 km2).
• BRW coverage: South Gonder zone (Simada,
• Topography: rugged surface with very steep
Tach Gayint, Lay Gayint, and East Este),
and undulating slopes and deep gorges, river
• North Wollo zone (Dawunt, Meket, Wadla,
valleys, plain and hills and escarpment areas
Delanta, and Guba Lafto),
(Mekonnen et al., 2022).
• South Wollo zone (Sayint, Mekdela, Tenta,
• Ecosystem: forest, shrubland, woodland, and
Ambasel, Kutaber, Dese Zuriya, and
grassland.
Legambo).
• Vegetation: alpine vegetation, coniferous,
• Area: 12239.53 km2.
podocarps, broad-leafed, juniper forest,
• Geographical location of BRW woodland, savanna, and grasslands.

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 Research approach

• The research approach can shape the nature of the study, the types of data, and the
analysis method (Creswell, 2021).
• The study utilize a remote sensing approach to assess and model the ecological security
of the BRW based on different indicators.
• A model will be developed to integrates various indicators to assess and model ES of the
BRW.

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 Research design
• This research will follow a descriptive-correlational research design.
• It will describe the current state of the BRW through analysing landscape metrices and
mapping landscape patterns and identify key climate, socioeconomic, biophysical,
ecological indicators.
• Then, it will correlate these indicators with each other and with potential threats to
understand their influence on ecological security.
• The project aims to ultimately develop a model for predicting and monitoring the
ecological security of the watershed.

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 Data source and software

• The study will use satellite images, meteorological, biophysical/ecological, and socio-
economic data.
Data types and source
Data processing software

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 Data processing
• All satellite data will be preprocessed.
• Atmospheric and radiometric corrections will be done for Landsat and Sentinel images
using Google Earth Engine (GEE).
• The data will be resampled to 30 m by 30 m to eliminate scale variation.
• The data will also be standardized to remove the dimensions of the data.
• After the factors are standardized, their weights will be calculated using entropy method.
• The entropy method of factor weight calculation is more objective and based on entropy
index information, or coefficient of index (Y. Li et al., 2023).

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 Data analysis

• Objective 1: Analyzing Ecological Risk in the BRW

Ecological risk assessment framework of BRW

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 Con’t…

• Objective 2: Analyzing Ecosystem Services in the BRW

Ecosystem services assessment framework of BRW

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 Con’t…

• Objective 3: Analyzing Ecological Security Patterns in the BRW

Ecological security pattern construction framework of BRW

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 Con’t…

• Objective 4: Modeling Ecological Security in the BRW

Ecological security assessment framework of BRW

Ecological security evaluation index indicators in DPSIRM model

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 Con’t…

• Objective 5: Simulating ecological security early warning in the BRW

Ecological security early warning assessment framework of BRW

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 Qualitative and Quantitative Data Collection and Analysis

Sampling design and sampling technique

• The study area covers three zones and 16 woredas. To determine the sample size, It will
be classified based on agroecological zone (Kola, Weyna Dega, Dega and Wurch).
• Finally, sample kebeles will select using simple random sampling.
• And sample households will be identified using systematic random sampling.
• The sample size will proportional to four agroecological zones and rural kebeles’ total
population.
• Therefore, this study will use proportional and random sampling design techniques.

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 Sampling technique

• Sample size will be determined using the following equation (Cochran, 1977).

• Where: is the sample size; is the Z-score corresponding to the desired level of
confidence (1.96 for a 95% confidence level); is the estimated proportion of the
population with a particular characteristic; is the estimated proportion of the population
without the characteristic (); is the desired margin of error (). The researcher will
consider 10 % for the non-response questionnaires.

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 Data collection tool

• Household survey, key informant interview and focus group discussion will be used to
support the remote sensing indicators and models.
• Questionnaire: Data related with land fragmentation, land and soil degradation,
deforestation, hazard and risk, soil and land management, and driver factors to LULC
change, and ecosystem services degradation will be collected.
• key informant interview: Environmental and land management, ecosystem and
biodiversity experts will interviewee to support the data collected using questionnaire.
• Interview questions related to environmental, land, and ecological management and
restoration activities, and climate change and adaptation will be prepared.

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 Data collection tool

• In each zone and woreda, three experts will select from the aforementioned offices.
Therefore, 9 experts will select from zones and 48 experts from woredas.
• The woreda experts will be selected based on the agroecology zone.
• Focus group discussion will also be conducted from the local community and kebele
agriculture experts.
• The number of individuals participated in one focus group discussion will be 12 and a
total of 8 focus group discussion will be conducted.
• Each two focus group discussion will be done in four agroecology zones.

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 Data analysis

• Data collected using questionaries will be analyzed using multiple linear regression.
• Qualitative analysis, mainly thematic analysis will be used to analyze data collected using
interview and focus group discussion.

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 Budget
• Budget
R.No Budget Category Unit Cost (Birr) Multiplying Factor Total Cost (birr)
1 Personnel Per diem No of Days No of Staff
Per diem for data collectors (training) 500 1 10 5,000
Per diem for data collectors (data collection) 500 15 10 75,000

GCP data collectors (spatial data collection) 500 10 10 50,000

Sub-total 130,000
2 Transport Cost Per No of Staff/ No of Trips Total cost
Journey/unit Quantity
Transportation cost (study area districts) 2000 1 2 4,000
Motorcycle contract (district to sample Lump sum (400) 2 times in each 16 12,800
kebeles (16)) 16 kebele

Sub-total 16,800
3 Data/material cost Unit Quantity Unit cost Total cost
Stationary Lump sum 1 5,000 5,000
Sub-total 5,000
Total 151,800
Contingency (5%) 7,590
Grand Total 159,390

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 THANK YOU !

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