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Chapter

Five

McGraw-Hill/ © 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All

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A Survey of Probability
Concepts
GOALS
When you have completed this chapter, you
will be able to:
ONE
Define probability.
TWO
Describe the classical, empirical, and subjective approaches
to probability.
THREE
Understand the terms: experiment, event, outcome,
permutations, and combinations.
Goals
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A Survey of Probability
Concepts
GOALS
When you have completed this chapter, you
will be able to:

FOUR
Define the terms: conditional probability and
joint probability.
FIVE
Calculate probabilities applying the rules of addition and the
rules of multiplication.
SIX
Use a tree diagram to organize and compute probabilities.
Goals
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Chapter Five continued

A Survey of Probability
Concepts
SEVEN
Calculate a probability using Bayes’ theorem.

Goals
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What Is a Probability
Probability is a value between 0 and 1 (inclusive) that describes the likelihood
(chance) an event will occur.

Key Points:
• Probability = Likelihood an event will happen.
• Expressed as:
- Decimal: 0.70, 0.03, 0.50 Examples:
- Fraction: 7/10, 3/100, 1/2 • 70% chance of rain → P = 0.70
• Range: 0 ≤ Probability ≤ 1 • Banana-flavored pickle success → P = 0.03

Interpretation:
• P = 1 → Event is certain
• P = 0 → Event is impossible
• Closer to 0 → Unlikely
• Closer to 1 → Very likely
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An Outcome is Experiment: A fair die is cast.

the particular
result of an
experiment.
Possible outcomes: The
numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
An Event is
the collection One possible event: The
of one or more occurrence of an even
number. That is, we collect
outcomes of an
the outcomes 2, 4, and 6.
experiment.
Definitions continued
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Mutually Exclusive & Collectively Exhaustive Events

Mutually Exclusive:
The occurrence of one event means the other
cannot occur at the same time.
• Example:
Gender (Male or Female) – a person cannot be both.
A part is either acceptable or unacceptable – not both.

Collectively Exhaustive:
At least one of the events must occur when the
experiment is conducted.
• Example:
In a die roll, outcomes are either even or odd – all
possibilities are covered.
Some Rules for Computing Probabilities 5- 8

 Rules of Addition
There are two rules of addition, the special rule of addition and the
general rule of addition.
1. Special Rule of Addition :To apply the special rule of addition,
the events must be mutually exclusive.

Special rule of addition formula:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

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Special Rule of Addition when events are mutually
exclusive
A Check of 4,000 packages filled in the past months. What is the probability
that a particular package will be either underweight or overweight?

Weight Events Number of Probability of

Packages Occurrence
Underweight A 100 .025
Satisfactory B 3,600 .900
Overweight C 300 .075
4,000 1.00

The outcome “underweight” is the event A. The outcome “overweight” is the

event C. Applying the special rule of addition:

P(A or C)=P(A)+P(C)=0.025+0.075=0.100

That’s mean there is 10% chance that any given package will be either underweight
or overweight.
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2. General Rule of Addition: If A and B are two events that are

not mutually exclusive, then P(A or B) is given by the following
formula:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)
Example:
A tourist might visit both Disney World and Busch Gardens.
A student might pass both Math and English.
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Example: Florida Tourist Survey

• Total tourists = 200

• Visited Disney World = 120 → P(D) = 120 / 200 = 0.60

• Visited Busch Gardens = 100 → P(B) = 100 / 200 = 0.50

• Visited both = 60 → P(D and B) = 60 / 200 = 0.30

Find: What is the probability that a tourist visited either Disney

World or Busch Gardens?

=P(D or B)=P(D)+P(B)−P(D and B)

=0.60+0.50−0.30=0.80​
There’s an 80% chance that a randomly selected tourist visited Disney World
or Busch Gardens or both.
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Complementary Rule

The complement of an event is everything that does NOT happen in

that event.
This rule is useful because sometimes it is easier to calculate the
probability of an event happening by determining the probability of
it not happening and subtracting the result from 1.
 Formula

P(A′)=1−P(A)

P( A) =1- P(A′)
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a.What is the probability that the first person selected is

management or secretary?
b.What is the probability that the person is not in management?

Classification Event No of Employees

Supervisor A 120

Maintenance B 50

Production C 1460

Management D 302

Secretarial E 68
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A Conditional Probability is the

probability of a particular event occurring,
given that another event has occurred.

The probability of
event A occurring
given that the event
B has occurred is
written P(A|B).

Conditional Probability
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Example
 There are 10 rolls in a box, 3 of which are defective. Two
rolls are to be selected, one after the other. What is the
probability of selecting a defective roll followed by another
defective roll?
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BAYES’ THEOREM
Bayes' Theorem is a formula used to calculate the probability of an
outcome given a known previous outcome that occurred in similar
circumstances.
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EXAMPLES
 Dr. Stallter has been teaching basic statistics for many years. She knows that 80
percent of the students will complete the assigned problems. She has also
determined that among those who do their assignments, 90 percent will pass the
course. Among those students who do not do their homework, 60 percent will
pass. Mike Fishbaugh took statistics last semester from Dr. Stallter and received a
passing grade. What is the probability that he completed the assignments?

SOLUTION:
Suppose,
A: Student completed assignments
Aˉ: Student did not complete assignments
P: Student passed the course
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 We are given:
P(A)=0.80 → 80% of students complete assignments
P(Aˉ)=0.20 → 20% do not complete assignments
P(P∣A)=0.90 → If they did assignments, 90% pass
P(P∣Aˉ)=0.60 → If they didn’t do assignments, 60% pass
 We need P(A∣P):
The probability a student did the assignments given that they passed.

So, there is an 85.71% chance that Mike did the assignments, given that he
passed the course.
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Examples

 The Ludlow Wildcats baseball team, a minor league team in the

Cleveland Indians organization, plays 70 percent of their games
at night and 30 percent during the day. The team wins 50
percent of their night games and 90 percent of their day games.
According to today’s newspaper, they won yesterday. What is
the probability the game was played at night?
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Given that,
P(N)=0.70 → 70% of games are played at night
P(D)=0.30 → 30% are played during the day
P(W∣N)=0.50 → They win 50% of night games
P(W∣D)=0.90 → They win 90% of day games

So, given that they won, there is a 56.45% chance the game was played at
night.