COURSE TITLE: METEOROLOGY AND
CLIMATE CHANGE.
COURSE CODE: NRFS 151
WEATHER FORECASTING.
GROUP 06.
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INTRODUCTION TO WEATHER FORECASTING
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INTRODUCTION
Weather forecasts are issued to save lives, to save property and crops, and to tell
us what to expect in our atmospheric environment.
In addition, knowing what the weather will be like in the future is vital to many
human activities.
For example, a summer forecast of extended heavy rain and cool weather would
have construction supervisors planning work under protective cover.
Department stores advertising umbrellas instead of bathing suits ,and ice cream
vendors vacationing as their business dropped off.
The forecast would alert farmers to harvest their crops before their fields became
too soggy to support the heavy machinery needed for the job.
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INTRODUCTION
Weather forecasting basically entails predicting how the present
state of the atmosphere will change.
The public hears weather forecasts over radio or television. Many
stations hire private meteorological companies or professional
meteorologists to make their own forecasts aided by NCEP material
or to modify a weather service forecast.
Other stations hire meteorologically untrained announcers who
paraphrase or read the forecasts of the National Weather Service
word for word.
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WATCHES,WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
A watch indicates that atmospheric conditions favor hazardous
weather occurring over a particular region during a specified time
period, but the actual location and time of the occurrence is
uncertain.
A warning, on the other hand, indicates that hazardous weather is
either imminent or actually occurring within the specified forecast
area.
Advisories are issued to inform the public of less hazardous
conditions caused by wind, dust, fog, snow, sleet, or freezing rain.
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WATCHES,WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
https://media.istockphoto.com/id/1201139700/photo/
humidorhygrometer.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=is&k=20&c=fUrXK
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ELEMENTS OF THE WEATHER
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1.TEMPERATURE
Temperature is a measure of the
average kinetic energy of the
particles in a substance. It
indicates how hot or cold
something is and is typically
measured in degrees Celsius
(°C), Fahrenheit (°F), or Kelvin (K)
with an instrument called
thermometer. FIG 1.1
https://media.istockphoto.com/id/
868098786/photo/thermometer-on-snow-
shows-low-temperatures-zero-low-
temperature
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2.HUMIDITY
Humidity is the amount of water
vapor present in the air. It is
usually expressed as a
percentage and indicates how
moist or dry the air feels.
Humidity is measured with an
instrument called hygrometer.
FIG 1.2
https://media.istockphoto.com/id/1201139700/
photo/humidorhygrometer.jpg?s=1024x10
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3.WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION
Wind speed is the rate at which air
moves from one place to another,
usually measured in kilometers per
hour (km/h), miles per hour (mph),
meters per second (m/s), or knots.
Wind direction refers to the direction
from which the wind is coming. It is
usually measured in degrees (°) from
true north or described using compass
direction.They are measured with
anemometer and wind vane
respectively. FIG 1.3
https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/
2019/10/03/21/43/shield-
4524473_960_720.jpg
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4.AIR PRESSURE
Air pressure, also called
atmospheric pressure, is the
force exerted by the weight of
air on a surface. It is measured in
units like pascals (Pa), millibars
(mb), or inches of mercury
(inHg).
The instrument used in measuring air
pressure is called Barometer. FIG 1.4
https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2021/01/31/20/45/
barometer-5968520_960_720.jpg
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5.PRECIPITATION
Precipitation is any form of water—
liquid or solid—that falls from the
atmosphere to the Earth's surface. It
occurs when clouds become saturated
with moisture, and the water droplets
or ice crystals grow too heavy to
remain suspended in the air.
rain,snow,sleet,hail,drizzle,etc. One
major instrument used in measuring
precipitation is rain gauge.
FIG 1.5
https://media.istockphoto.com/id/180833180/
photo/green-rain-gauge-set-in-outside-garden.jpg?
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METHODS OF WEATHER FORECASTING
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1.TRADITIONAL METHOD
•Based on observations of nature, animal behavior, and historical
weather patterns.
•Examples:
•“Red sky at night, sailor’s delight; red sky in the morning, sailor’s warning”
(predicting clear or stormy weather).
•Birds flying low indicate rain due to changes in air pressure.
•Limitations: Not scientifically accurate and unreliable for long-term
predictions.
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2.PERSISTENCE WEATHER FORECASTING
•Assumes that current weather conditions will continue unchanged for
a certain period.
•Works best in stable climates where weather patterns change slowly.
•Example: If today is sunny, tomorrow will also be sunny.
•Limitations: Does not work well in areas with rapidly changing weather
conditions.
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3.ANALOGUE METHOD
•Compares current weather conditions with past weather patterns that had
similar characteristics.
•Forecasters use historical data to predict what will happen next.
•Example: If a storm follows a specific pattern seen in past years, it may
behave similarly.
•Limitations: Weather patterns are never exactly the same, leading to
uncertainties.
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4.NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION
•Uses mathematical models and computers to simulate the atmosphere’s
behavior.
•Meteorologists input real-time weather data (temperature, wind, pressure,
humidity) into models to predict future conditions.
•Example: Supercomputers analyze atmospheric conditions to predict
rainfall, storms, and temperature changes.
•Limitations: Small errors in input data can lead to large forecasting errors.
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5.STATISTICAL METHOD
•Uses statistical models based on historical weather records and
probabilities.
•Helps in making long-term climate predictions and seasonal forecasts.
•Example: Predicting the likelihood of hurricanes in a certain month
based on past trends.
•Limitations: Cannot predict sudden weather events accurately.
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6.ENSEMBLE FORECASTING
•Uses multiple weather models to improve accuracy by analyzing
different possible scenarios.
•Helps reduce uncertainty by providing a range of possible weather
outcomes.
•Example: Predicting a hurricane’s possible paths by running multiple
simulations.
•Limitations: Still dependent on the accuracy of initial input data.
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TOOLS AND INSTRUMENTS USED IN
WEATHER FORECASTING
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THERMOMETER
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HYGROMETER
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ANEMOMETER AND WIND VANE
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BAROMETER
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RAIN GAUGE
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WEATHER SATELLITE AND DOPPLER RADAR
FIG 1.6
https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2012/11/28/11/25/satellite-
67718_1280.jpg
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TYPES OF WEATHER FORECAST
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1.NOWCASTING(0 TO 6 HOURS)
•Focuses on very short-term weather changes.
•Uses radar and satellite data for real-time updates.
•Useful for severe weather warnings like thunderstorms and tornadoes.
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2.SHORT RANGE FORECAST(1 TO 3 DAYS)
•Provides detailed weather conditions for the next few days.
•Used for planning daily activities.
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3.MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST(3 TO 10 DAYS)
•Covers weather predictions up to 10 days ahead.
•Less accurate than short-range forecasts but useful for travel and event
planning.
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4.LONG RANGE FORECAST(10 TO MONTHS)
•Predicts general trends in temperature and precipitation over weeks or
months.
•Used for agriculture, energy planning, and disaster preparedness.
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5.SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST
•Predicts extreme weather events such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and
blizzards.
•Helps in disaster preparedness and evacuation planning.
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6.AVIATION AND MARINE FORECAST
•Provides specialized weather information for pilots and sailors.
•Includes wind speeds, visibility, turbulence, and wave heights.
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7.SEASONAL FORECAST
•Predicts overall weather patterns for an entire season.
•Used in agriculture, energy sector, and water resource management.
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CHALLENGES IN WEATHER FORECASTING
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•Atmospheric Complexity – The atmosphere is chaotic, and small
changes in initial conditions can lead to drastically different outcomes
(Butterfly Effect).
•Data Gaps – Some regions, like oceans and remote areas, lack sufficient
weather observation stations, leading to gaps in data.
•Limitations of Models – Weather models are based on mathematical
equations and approximations, which may not always capture real-world
conditions accurately.
•Rapidly Changing Weather – Some weather phenomena, like
thunderstorms and tornadoes, develop quickly, making them difficult to
predict in advance.
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•Influence of Local Geography – Mountains, oceans, and urban areas
create microclimates that standard models may not accurately account
for.
•Uncertainty in Long-Range Forecasts – The further into the future a
forecast goes, the less accurate it becomes due to increasing uncertainty
in atmospheric conditions.
•Extreme Weather Events – Hurricanes, heatwaves, and heavy storms
are difficult to predict in terms of intensity, timing, and exact impact
locations.
•Human and Technological Errors – Mistakes in data input, satellite
readings, or model interpretations can lead to inaccurate forecasts.
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IMPORTANCE OF WEATHER FORECASTING
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Weather forecasting is crucial for various sectors of society. Here are eight key
reasons why it is important:
1.Disaster Preparedness – Helps predict and warn people about extreme weather
events like hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, and heatwaves, reducing loss of life and
property.
2.Agriculture Planning – Farmers rely on forecasts for planting, irrigation, and
harvesting to protect crops from droughts, frosts, and storms.
3.Transportation Safety – Aviation, maritime, and road transport depend on
weather forecasts to prevent accidents caused by fog, storms, and icy conditions.
4.Public Health and Safety – Forecasts help manage risks associated with extreme
temperatures, air pollution, and disease outbreaks linked to weather changes.
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•Energy Management – Power companies use weather forecasts to
predict energy demand, optimize power production, and prepare for
outages due to storms.
•Water Resource Management – Helps in predicting rainfall and
managing reservoirs, dams, and water supplies efficiently to prevent
droughts and floods.
•Military Operations – Armed forces use weather forecasts for strategic
planning, including troop movements, airstrikes, and naval operations.
•Daily Planning and Activities – Helps individuals plan their day, whether
for outdoor activities, travel, or dressing appropriately for weather
conditions.
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SUMMARY
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SUMMARY
Weather forecasting is the process of predicting atmospheric
conditions for a specific location and time.
It involves collecting data from satellites, weather stations, radars,
and computer models to analyze temperature, humidity, wind
patterns, and atmospheric pressure.
Meteorologists use this data to create short-term and long-term
forecasts, helping individuals, businesses, and governments prepare
for various weather conditions.
Modern forecasting relies heavily on advanced technology, including
artificial intelligence and numerical weather prediction models, to
improve accuracy. Despite advancements, forecasts remain subject to
uncertainties due to the complexity of weather systems.
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R.E.F.E.R.E.N.C.E.S
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•Topic: Introduction to Weather Forecasting
Date: Ongoing research and updates
Website: National Weather Service (NWS)
•Topic: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories
Date: Regularly updated based on weather conditions
Website: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
•Topic: Elements of Weather (Temperature, Humidity, Wind Speed, Air
Pressure, Precipitation)
Date: Scientific updates available frequently
Website: World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
•Topic: Methods of Weather Forecasting (Traditional, Numerical, Statistical,
Ensemble, etc.)
Date: Updated as forecasting methods improve
Website: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
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•Topic: Tools and Instruments Used in Weather Forecasting
Date: Continuous technological advancements
Website: Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
•Topic: Types of Weather Forecasting (Nowcasting, Short-range, Long-
range, etc.)
Date: Updated based on forecasting models
Website: AccuWeather
•Topic: Challenges in Weather Forecasting
Date: Studies and advancements ongoing
Website: Nature Climate Change Journal
•Topic: Importance of Weather Forecasting
Date: Updated with global climate trends
Website: The Weather Channel
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GROUP MEMBERS
46 46
GROUP MEMBERS
21148833 - KODUA, Lawrencia Tweneboah
21148022 - APPIAH OWUSU, Rhoda Pokua
21147846 - OSEI, Benedicta Asibey Sarpong
21147684 - IBRAHIM, Mariam
21147358 - BOADI, Stacy Oparebea
21147107 - ADAMS, Hafiz
21146607 - GOGOE, Naa Atswei
21146597 - KISSI LARBI, Bridget Sekyeraa
21146380 - NYARKO, Edward
21146294 - KUMATSE, Daniel Seyram
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GROUP MEMBERS
21146010 - BAWUAH, Comfort
21145559 - ODURO, Akosua Pokuaa
21145510 - TWUMASI, Ebenezer Tuffour
21145162 - AMPONSAH, Emmanuel Atta Anthony
21144761 - OWUSU-POKU, Emmanuel
21144732 - TETTEH, Raymond
21144706 - ACQUAH, Rebecca Manso
21143668 - ADAMTEY, David Asare
21143583 - OPOKU-AMOAH, Christabel Awura Akua Oduraa
21145162 - AMPONSAH, Emmanuel Atta Anthony
3422124 - ADDO, Clifford
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THANK YOU.
