Where do NI stand in World Cup play-off picture?

World Cup qualifying is well under way for Northern Ireland.

Michael O'Neill's side started their bid to reach the finals in the USA, Mexico and Canada next summer with a win in Luxembourg and defeat by Germany.

It was an unpredictable start to qualifying as Slovakia defeated the Germans in their opener to blow the group wide open.

In October, NI enjoyed an impressive victory over Slovakia and were then beaten again by Germany so it's still all to play for in the final two fixtures in November.

Here's how things stand after the latest round matches in Group A, as well as the wider play-off context.

Northern Ireland started their World Cup bid with a 3-1 win in Luxembourg.

Jamie Reid's early opener was cancelled out by Aiman Dardari, but goals from Shea Charles and Justin Devenny gave Northern Ireland the win.

However, Group A was blown wide open when Slovakia defeated Germany 2-0 in Bratislava.

Many had tipped the Germans to top the group and qualify automatically with ease, but Julian Nagelsmann's side ended the opening round of fixtures bottom of the pile.

They were under big pressure in their second game as Isaac Price brought Northern Ireland level in Frankfurt after Serge Gnabry's opener.

A defensive mistake allowed Nadiem Amiri to score and a Florian Wirtz stunner, both of which came in the space of three minutes, saw the Germans through on the night.

In the other game, Slovakia needed a 90th-minute winner from Tomas Rigo to battle past Luxembourg.

Then, in October, Northern Ireland cruised to a deserved 2-0 win at home against Slovakia courtesy of an own goal from Patrik Hrosovsky and a late stunning lob from Trai Hume to keep their hopes of a top two finish alive.

Germany picked up a resounding 4-0 victory against 10-man Luxembourg before their visit to Belfast three days later.

O'Neill's side produced a spirited display but ultimately fell to a 1-0 defeat against the Germans as Nick Woltemade scored his first goal for his country in their second game of the window.

Slovakia, like Germany, moved onto nine points courtesy of their 2-0 win over Luxembourg.

Germany top the group on goal difference, with Slovakia level on points with them in second and NI three points further behind in third.

The easiest way to qualify for the World Cup is to top the group and earn automatic qualification, while the runner-up in each group will progress to the play-off round.

While finishing in the top two would make life straightforward for Northern Ireland, they could still earn a play-off due to winning their Nations League group last year.

The top four Nations League winners who do not finish in the top two in their World Cup qualifying group will earn a play-off place.

O'Neill's side are currently in third after four matches, but let's talk the hypothetical worst-case scenario and Northern Ireland finish outside of the top two come the end of Group A in November.

In terms of ranking, Northern Ireland finished 12th out of the 14 group winners in the Nations League, which means they need eight of the 11 teams above them to qualify or have already booked a play-off spot.

You would expect Germany to finish in the top two after recovering from their rocky start, but if they don't then it's a win-win as Northern Ireland would be the team most likely to finish ahead of them.

In the remaining groups, seven teams are in the top two with two rounds of matches remaining, and that would be enough for Northern Ireland to secure a play-off regardless of the final standings in Group A.

England confirmed their qualification for next summer's tournament with a 5-0 win against Latvia.

Spain, Portugal and France should also be near certainties to qualify.

Erling Haaland's Norway currently lead the way in Group I, while the Czech Republic are very well placed in Group L.

At least one of North Macedonia and Wales - who are in a similar but slightly less precarious position to Northern Ireland due to their higher Nations League ranking - should finish in the top two of Group J, and both finishing above Belgium would be a dream scenario for NI.

It is North Macedonia who are currently in that second spot, three points ahead of Wales, who recently lost to Belgium.

Sweden have made a poor to Group B and are bottom with just a point from their first four games, while Romania are also outside the top two in Group H behind leaders Austria and Bosnia-Herzegovina in second.

Northern Ireland finish their campaign in November with a trip to Slovakia and at home to Luxembourg on 17 November.

If they reach the play-offs, one-legged semi-finals and a final will take place in March before the finals in the USA, Mexico and Canada start in June.