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From Euphoria to Neurosis

Fyodor A. Lukyanov

Europe: A Bitter Parting

Sergei A. Karaganov

Did Confucius Dream about the Balance of Power?

Alexander V. Solovyov

Contents

Fyodor A. Lukyanov

History shows that neurosis in Europe, and especially in Germany, spawns disaster far beyond its borders. History is heading for another sharp turn.

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Sergei A. Karaganov

Siberization – shifting the country’s center of gravity to the Urals and Siberia – is not just extremely beneficial, but also unavoidable, as the western, European vector has been blocked for the foreseeable future by Western policy that provoked the war in Ukraine.

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Alexander V. Solovyov

In historical and political analysis, it seems meaningless to reduce traditional Western and Eastern IR thought to the Westphalian and tributary systems, respectively, and those in turn to an ‘anarchy of equal sovereignties’ and ‘hegemonic hierarchy,’ respectively. Both models describe political reality, and perception thereof, only within certain spatial and temporal limits.

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No. 4
2025 October/December

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Europe: A Bitter Parting

Sergei A. Karaganov

Siberization – shifting the country’s center of gravity to the Urals and Siberia – is not just extremely beneficial, but also unavoidable, as the western, European vector has been blocked for the foreseeable future by Western policy that provoked the war in Ukraine.

More

Did Confucius Dream about the Balance of Power?

Alexander V. Solovyov

In historical and political analysis, it seems meaningless to reduce traditional Western and Eastern IR thought to the Westphalian and tributary systems, respectively, and those in turn to an ‘anarchy of equal sovereignties’ and ‘hegemonic hierarchy,’ respectively. Both models describe political reality, and perception thereof, only within certain spatial and temporal limits.

More

Agenda

Western Europe Should Stop Looking For ‘Moscow’s Hand’ and Face Up to Its Own Decline

The West’s ideological fervor – its need to moralize every conflict – has become its weakness. Russia’s stance, by contrast, is pragmatic, even stoic: The recognition that the world is too complex for binary thinking, that each civilization must now define its own path.

Fyodor A. Lukyanov

The Loss of Humanity and the Illusion of Peace

For the Netanyahu right-wing government, the Israelis traumatized by the perceived existential threat from the Palestinians, compounded by the historical trauma of the Holocaust injustices, had to respond to Hamas’s attacks with genocide in Gaza. Once the psychological barriers were overcome, violence became highly tangible.

Peace Deals vs. Solutions―Kicking the Can Down the Road?

While there are many more words that politicians use in their verbal manipulative strategies and that are worthy of analysis, ‘peace’ and ‘deal’ explain well enough one compelling reason for the dire circumstances the world is in today.

Dr. Chaos or: How to Stop Worrying and Love the Disorder

There is no doubt that today’s shifts are profound and are taking place across virtually all domains. That said, they cannot be viewed as an expression of someone’s deliberate will but should rather be regarded as a series of processes which were quite predictable and natural. These changes are not “the biggest since…” – they simply represent a new era that does not need to be compared to any other.

Oleg N. Barabanov, Anton Bespalov, Timofei V. Bordachev, Fyodor A. Lukyanov, Andrei A. Sushentsov, Ivan N. Timofeev

A Gulf Pact with the Power of Strategic Ambiguity

The Pakistan-Saudi Arabia agreement is notable not just for what it includes, but for what it leaves obscure. The deliberate opacity allows both states to send a strong deterrent signal without confining themselves to inflexible commitments. In a region where security threats are diffuse and alliances are often tested by shifting loyalties, this flexibility may be its greatest strength.

Muhammad Taimur Fahad Khan

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Trump 2.0 and the Art of the Deal in a Geopolitical Game Show

For all of Trump 2.0’s vulgarity and ignorance, his game show policy lacks consistency of purpose, while the roller coaster of uncertainty and risk is uniquely accelerating the U.S./Global North’s decline and the rise of the Global South.

Why Labour and Sir Keir Starmer May Have the Last Laugh

Labour is having a really bad time. Former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner recently resigned after a property tax scandal. Sir Keir Starmer has historically low approval ratings. Labour is also polling a distant second, and most of the UK is unsure what the party stands for. Scratch the surface a little and see that Labour is actually in a stronger position than the British media and most experts give it credit for.

James C. Pearce

Why Is Iran Concerned over the Armenia–Azerbaijan Peace Agreement?

Tehran has been closely monitoring the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement signed on 8 August 2025 under Donald Trump’s mediation. Iran views U.S. contribution not as a benevolent initiative for peace and the TRIPP as a transit and trade project, but rather as part of a broader strategy aimed at reshaping the region’s geopolitical map to Iran’s (and Russia’s) detriment.

Strengthening RIC for a Stronger BRICS+

Ultimately, the future of BRICS+ hinges on Russia, India, and China’s capacity to overcome their divisions and remain committed to collective progress. If the RIC nations harmonize trade policies, digital systems, and innovation agendas, they can solidify their role as the nucleus of a more inclusive, multipolar world order—one that reflects the true aspirations of the Global South.

Hriday Ch. Sarma

The Meghri Corridor: An Apple of Discord or an Olive Branch?

Defeat in the Second Karabakh War and the ensuing territorial and resource losses have dramatically reduced Armenia’s geopolitical weight but have not yet doomed it to geoeconomic irrelevance. Transforming the Meghri Corridor from a liability into a source of resilience would free Armenia from the role of a petty rentier in regional logistics.

Armen Martirosyan

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