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Russia in Global Affairs

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RSCI Scopus

No. 1

2008 January/March

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Contents

Is Free Trade Heading for Eclipse?

Jean-Pierre Lehmann

Russia and the West: Is Confrontation Inevitable?

Modern Russia and Postmodern Europe

Boris V. Mezhuev

Who Is to Blame for the Karabakh Impasse?

Is There A Way Out of the Karabakh Deadlock?

Vladimir Kazimirov

Russia’s East Asian Strategy: The Korean Challenge

Georgy D. Toloraya

The Competition for Security Roles in Central Asia

Ivan A. Safranchuk

Nuclear Disarmament: Problems and Prospects

The Change in the External Factors of Russia’s Development

Mikhail Delyagin

Our First Five Years

Fyodor A. Lukyanov

Russia and Europe Are Doomed to Cooperate

Multipolarity and Demography

Anatoly Vishnevsky

Russia’s Global Role and European Identity

Russia’s Policy Toward Compatriots in the Former Soviet Union

Igor A. Zevelev

Russia’s Multi-Layered Ethnic Policies

A New Chance for a Hopeless Cause

Russian Modernization: Interests and Coalitions

Leonid Grigoriev

Articles

Is Free Trade Heading for Eclipse?

Rising insecurity, the uncharted and seemingly turbulent waters in which the global economic ship is heading, is occurring amidst frightening environmental degradation and climate change, apprehensions related to “identification” and immigration, the steep decline of the U.S. and the quagmire of the Middle East, the seemingly daunting industrial and financial muscle of China, rising inequality and high levels of poverty, and the fear of possible devastating pandemics.

Jean-Pierre Lehmann

Russia and the West: Is Confrontation Inevitable?

Russia and the West are not – yet – in a confrontation. Confrontation would
be unnecessary, mutually
damaging and potentially dangerous;
but the possibility exists. We tried to become partners and allies. That
turned out to be unrealistic.

Modern Russia and Postmodern Europe

Russia and Europe have to learn how to live and cooperate without understanding each other. To some extent, the right to remain different and misunderstood is the starting point for moving our value coordinates closer together.

Boris V. Mezhuev

Who Is to Blame for the Karabakh Impasse?

Contrary to expectations, the end of the Cold War did not bring about a strengthening of general security and one of the reasons for this was a sharp deterioration of ‘local’ conflicts, most of which flared up in the territories of former socialist federations – the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia.

Is There A Way Out of the Karabakh Deadlock?

The political settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is entering a phase of stagnancy, which is unavoidable in the run-up to the presidential elections in Armenia and Azerbaijan. This makes it possible to examine the problem in more detail and to look for ways out of the long stalemate.

Vladimir Kazimirov

Russia’s East Asian Strategy: The Korean Challenge

Russia has a chance of getting an attractive niche in Northeast Asian affairs now – peacefully, without irritating its partners and avoiding considerable costs. The Russian position in the region may in some measure resemble (although with a much smaller military element) the one that Russia had in post-Versailles Europe, when the absence of conflicts with other major players allowed it to play a balancing role.

Georgy D. Toloraya

The Competition for Security Roles in Central Asia

The talk about the SCO’s anti-American stance did not spring out of nothing. The organization openly pursues the goal of doing without the U.S. in resolving all challenges facing Central Asia. While it does not seek to oppose Washington either globally or regionally, the SCO does not want any links with Washington either. This means it wants to get along without the U.S., but not go against it.

Ivan A. Safranchuk

Nuclear Disarmament: Problems and Prospects

The stagnation that has settled in the field of nuclear arms control must be overcome. The control regime must be preserved. For all its imperfections, it is much better for international security than the absence of nuclear arms control. Such control may be lost after 2012 if the leaders of Russia and the United States do not display political will.

The Change in the External Factors of Russia’s Development

The Russian election campaign and related political events have distracted the public’s attention from the fact that the country has found itself in new circumstances. Luck, which has helped Moscow to greatly consolidate its positions over the past few years, is giving way to increasingly growing problems. The general situation may be far less favorable in the new political cycle.

Mikhail Delyagin

Our First Five Years

Russia in Global Affairs is celebrating a small anniversary: five years ago – in January 2003 – the first regular issue of our journal appeared in print. Five years is a short period of time in historical dimensions, but the pace and substance of the current changes make one recall the practice of calculating one’s length of service in the Soviet Union. At that time, a year of work under harsh climatic conditions or a year of performing a hazardous job was counted as two.

Fyodor A. Lukyanov

Russia and Europe Are Doomed to Cooperate

One of the many difficulties in relations between the European Union and Russia is that Russian policymakers see their own state as meriting, by its size, resources, history and location, a right to be consulted on EU policies and not treated simply as one of many neighbors or potential members. When so much of the business between the two entities is to do with energy, closer consultation on policies in precisely that sphere makes sense. That should work both ways: over Russian policies as well as EU policies.

Multipolarity and Demography

An excessive rapprochement with growing China, which lacks resources of its own, may impose “allied obligations” on Russia, which can ultimately result in the limitation of its rights to its own resources and to territories where they are located. Moscow will be able to successfully defend its interests only by relying on the solidarity of countries of the North, which are in the same demographic boat with it.

Anatoly Vishnevsky

Russia’s Global Role and European Identity

Russian society abounds in ideas and ideological concepts of every description today, and proponents of each of them vehemently insist that only their views must be declared a priority for the country’s development. Various opinions and bitter debates that range all the way up to complete intolerance show that it is impossible to design a vector of development on which the majority of Russians would agree.

Russia’s Policy Toward Compatriots in the Former Soviet Union

The official attitude of Moscow toward Russians outside the Russian Federation after the disintegration of the Soviet Union shows quite clearly the victory of pragmatism over the phantoms of imperial heritage. Yet the political rhetoric concerning this issue often has a neo-imperialist tone. It plays a compensatory role in the national consciousness and lays foundations for more resolute actions in the future.

Igor A. Zevelev

Russia’s Multi-Layered Ethnic Policies

Contrary to classical Western versions of nationalism in the past or even nationalism in the era of playing catch-up (like in Asia or Latin America), Russian nationalism is extremely conservative and does not have either a consummate modernization program or even separate elements and that is why it can only lead to a dead end. It perceives any reformist programs as ‘anti-Russian’ or ‘anti-national.’

A New Chance for a Hopeless Cause

The post-Soviet system has acquired its finishing touches now and it replicates the Soviet one in minute details. We have come to the point where distinguished textile workers praise Putin at “history-making” congresses of the party. But a return to the past means a rebirth of intellectual dissent as an element immanent for the past. If “distinguished textile workers” are back in place, then we cannot but get new “renegades” and “neo-dissidents.”

Russian Modernization: Interests and Coalitions

Attempts to overcome a serious crisis and launch the process of modernization can be compared to trying to climb out of a deep well. Neither the state, nor business nor civil society can climb out on its own. The three forces will only be able to move upward if they realize that they must pool their efforts to transform the country – keeping in mind that they should not climb over each other, or they will fall back down into the well.

Leonid Grigoriev