Groundwater level prediction model based on historical groundwater level fluctuations and rainfall deficit

• Groundwater Levels: Monthly Historical GWL level data (at least 10 years) • Rainfall: Monthly Normal and Actual Rainfall data

• Scenario 1: Predicted water levels with normal Rise/Fall with respect to November based on historical water level data • Scenario 2: Predicted water levels with normal Rise/Fall with respect to November based on historical water level data and by considering no rainfall from Dec to May • Scenario 3: Predicted water levels with normal Rise/Fall with respect to November based on historical water level data and by considering rainfall as continued with present deficit from Dec to May • Scenario 4: Predicted water levels with normal Rise/Fall with respect to November based on historical water level data and by considering rainfall as continued with normal Rainfall from Dec to May

In this exercise, Scenario 2 is selected for this study to predict the worst case in which there is no rainfall from Dec to May

PWL_DEC = AWL_NOV- Mean (HWLF_(NOV-DEC))- RFD* |HWLF_(NOV-DEC)| PWL_DEC: Predicted Water Level for next December AWL_NOV: Actual Water Level for Current November HWLF_(NOV-DEC): Historical Water Level Fluctuation between November and December RFD: Rainfall Deviation as a ratio RFD = (CARF(UPTO_NOV) – CNRF(UPTO_NOV))/ CNRF(UPTO_NOV) CARF(UPTO_NOV): Cumulative Actual Rainfall up to November CNRF(UPTO_NOV): Cumulative Normal Rainfall up to November

Methodology and Sample Data: Mr. K. S. Sastry (Deputy Director) and Andhra Pradesh Ground Water Department, India. Conceptualization and Development: Shubham Goswami (IISc Bangalore), Prof. M. Sekhar (IISc Bangalore)