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Conditional Love? The US & NATO after the US National Security Strategy
US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker talks at the Doha Forum
Dec 7, 2025
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Keith Dear
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The Frontier Moves Again
AI progress above and below the surface.
Nov 19, 2025
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Keith Dear
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95% of AI Investments Generate Zero ROI
But also, 74% deliver positive ROI. Two reports, contradictory findings. What can we learn?
Nov 7, 2025
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Keith Dear
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Never tell me the Odds: Is your CEO Han Solo?
Probabilistic strategy, tactics, decisions require a mindset shift: stop hiding from the odds; start moving them.
Oct 7, 2025
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Keith Dear
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Prediction Centric Warfare
Notes and slides from my talk at DSEI yesterday.
Sep 10, 2025
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Keith Dear
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Everything is Prediction
From Ramsey to Yudkowsky, the case for making our bets explicit.
Sep 2, 2025
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Keith Dear
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Future Diplomat
Reimagining Diplomacy for 2035.
Aug 19, 2025
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Keith Dear
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What did you do in the AI Revolution, Daddy?
Pre-GPT-5, Post AGI? For too many, hope is the largest part of their AI strategy. We are still under-estimating the speed of AI progress, and the…
Aug 1, 2025
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Keith Dear
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