Another Holiday Primer So You Can Deal With Your Fox News Loving Relatives
This is basically an updated version of the Thanksgiving primer!
I wanted to do a quick update on the newsletter I wrote last month “A Thanksgiving Primer to Help You Deal With your Fox Loving Relatives.”
I had to wait until December 18 to get the updated CPI report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The agency delayed it eight days due to the government shutdown. It was also based on a partial gathering of data which is problematic for several reasons.
My one word of caution with this newsletter:
NO AMOUNT OF DATA OR EVIDENCE WILL CONVINCE A MAGA PERSON THAT THEY ARE WRONG!
If I could put lights around that that phrase I would.
Devotees of the glorious leader will only give up on their deranged wannabe dictator when they decide for themselves that he’s a fraud. Their love and devotion to him is similar to the admiration for a cult leader.
The only way they will see the light is if they give up on him based on their emotional attachment to him and his movement. There is hope.
If they realize, on their own, that Trump is not the savior they thought he was they MIGHT drop this movement all together. It just takes time and patience.
The best thing you can do is to remain lighthearted around them as they go off on their rants. I admit openly it is challenging to do this with relatives especially when they are spouting angry, bigoted or racist rhetoric.
Another tip I would offer is to constantly change the subject to something other than politics - this might not work. I have had to disengage and simply walk away countless times from loved ones and friends who insist on discussing politics when I’ve indicated it is inappropriate.
Data, charts, and primary sourced information are great for folks who have not yet succumbed to the madness of MAGA. It will also help you know that you aren’t losing your mind and the reality-based world has your back.
This will also help anyone in your life who doesn’t consider themselves political, but it is on the fence about Trump.
I’ve included graphs, tables and maps of basic information to help destroy many of Trump’s frequent lies.
Food Prices
Grocery prices have increased across the board every month since Trump took office with a few exceptions. Food prices are normally volatile so it’s not unusual to see them vary a lot from month to month.
My source for all these prices is FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data). Each item has its own entry.
If you want to check out how FRED works here is the latest price for coffee. There is a gap that can be confusing due to the government shutdown, so I wanted to show everyone how to use FRED.
The reading for November is on the graph it just looks blank. I placed my cursor all the way to the right of the screen to get the number for November since there was no reading for October.
I’ve checked these prices since the first month of Trump’s presidency. More prices dropped last month or stayed the same since January but I suspect the data was thrown off a bit due to problems with the government shutdown.
Regardless Trump still performed miserably as 17 items out of 26 increased in price or stayed the same since the last full month of Biden’s presidency.
I count January 2025 for Trump since he made the absurd and impossible claim that he would get prices down on “day one,” of his presidency multiple times throughout his campaign.
Unemployment
A comparison of Biden’s last year in office with Trump’s first year so far.
My source for this chart was FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data). There is no data for October 2025 due to the government shutdown.
This Tuesday on the PBS News Hour David Wessel, a senior fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution expressed his concern about the latest jobs report.
“It suggests that the economy is weakening, that the labor market, which is where most of us earn our income, is slowing down. And we don’t know how much more lies ahead. But it is a very worrisome sign. But as my friend Jason Furman, the former white House Obama White House economist, said, by even by usual standards, there’s more uncertainty here and we’ll have to wait and see another month how bad things are.”
Trump frequently lied about his record with Black unemployment throughout his campaign. This is old news but you might hear someone in your family or social circle bring it up.
The Black unemployment rate did hit a record during the first Trump administration at 5.3% but Trump refused to accept reality that Biden blew past it in April 2023 when it hit 4.8%. The current rate for Black unemployment is 8.0%.
Inflation
One thing you might hear your Fox News loving relatives say,
“It’s the lowest rate of inflation since 2021.”
That’s a bit misleading as anyone could tell easily by looking at the chart that inflation was much lower in multiple months of Biden’s presidency and from March through May of the first year of Trump’s second term.
What they are referring to is core inflation which Investopedia describes as such:
Core inflation tracks how prices are rising across the economy, leaving out food and energy, since the prices of those items tend to swing unpredictably. It is commonly calculated using the consumer price index (CPI) and the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index.
Most folks on the right who are making this claim about inflation are leaving out the word ‘core’ so they sound like they don’t know what they are talking about.
The latest reading of core inflation was 2.6% which would be the lowest since November 2021 but a lot of economists and experts don’t think the latest BLS report is accurate.
The table below is directly from the CPI report that was released by the BLS on December 18, 2025. Most of the data from October 2025 and November 2025 were not collected.
This was also included on the official release by BLS
BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to a lapse in appropriations. BLS was unable to retroactively collect these data. For a few indexes, BLS uses non-survey data sources instead of survey data to make the index calculations. BLS was able to retroactively acquire most of the non-survey data for October. CPI data collection resumed on November 14, 2025.
Residential Electricity Rates
This is an updated map showing the how much residential electricity rates have increased from September 2024 - September 2025. I got these data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Residential electricity rates have increased in 46 states plus the District of Columbia. Only four states saw a decease in their electricity rates from September 2024 - September 2025.
States with decreases:
Rhode Island -1.4%
Hawaii -3%
Connecticut -7.8%
Nevada -14.8%
Top five states (including District of Columbia) with the highest increases:
District of Columbia +31.3%
New Jersey +21.1%
Illinois +20.6%
Indiana +16.9%
Pennsylvania +15.1%
This is something that Trump is going to have a really hard time explaining to folks as people know how much their utility bills are costing them every month.
Trump also repeatedly boasted during his campaign for president that he would ‘cut electricity rates in half’ within the first year of his administration.
Most of Trump’s ‘Drill Baby Drill’ Promises are Nonsense
I’m not an expert on the oil and gas industry but I’ve learned enough to know that most of what Trump says about the U.S. oil and gas industry is complete and utter nonsense.
Trump has also claimed that the United States has ‘the most liquid gold under our feet than any other country.”
Trump might be basing this on an estimate made by a Norwegian oil company in 2016. The estimate was based on newer methods of extracting oil (hydraulic fracking). Most crude oil is extracted in the United States using hydraulic fracking technology not conventional drilling.
The fracking industry is sometimes referred to as the "Shale Revolution.”
Hydraulic fracking is a more expensive process than drilling and in some cases, it might cost a petroleum company more money to get crude oil out of the ground than it’s worth.
According to World Population Review the U.S. has the 9th largest untapped oil reserves in the world.
According to multiple sources Venezuela and Saudi Arabia both have significantly more untapped crude oil than the United States. The U.S. ranks anywhere from #8 to #11 depending on the source as oil reserves are measured differently by various agencies.
Trump Acts Like the U.S. is One Big Company
The U.S. government does not own oil extracted in the United States including crude oil extracted on publicly owned land. The U.S. treasury receives a royalty on oil extracted on public land. Biden increased it from 12.5% to 16.67%. He was the first president to raise the royalty since 1920.
Trump rolled this royalty back to 12.5% as part of his One Big Beautiful Bill.
Whatever profits are leftover after oil companies pay royalties and land leases go back to the corporation not the U.S. treasury. Most oil is extracted from privately owned land although production on publicly owned land (off shore included) has increased in recent years. From the Energy Information Administration:
Most oil in the U.S. is extracted from privately held land. In those cases, any royalties are worked out between the landowner and the petroleum company.
Trump has repeatedly made wild claims that the United States will pay down the national debt from revenues from oil and gas.
The Department of the Interior reported $16.5 billion for fiscal year 2024 from energy production on federal and Tribal onshore lands, and federal offshore areas.
The national debt is $38 trillion. If every dime of revenue from oil and gas was used to pay down the debt it would account for 0.043% of the total debt.
The oil and gas industry is also subsidized by U.S. tax payers.
Trump Ignores the influence of OPEC+
The U.S. accounts for around 22% of crude oil production in the world, which is the highest for any single country on record. This trend started during the end of the Biden administration despite Trump’s many claims that Biden had destroyed the oil and gas industry.
OPEC+ countries combine produce over twice as much as the United States. OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) was formed in 1960 by Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela but has since expanded to 13 members.
OPEC+ has even more power and influence than the original OPEC as according to EIA (Energy Information Administration):
In 2016, largely in response to dramatically falling oil prices driven by significant increases in U.S. shale oil output, OPEC signed an agreement with 10 other oil-producing countries to create what is now known as OPEC+. Among these 10 countries was the world’s third-largest oil producer in 2022, Russia, which produced 13% of the world total (10.3 million barrels per day [b/d]).
Due to its size OPEC+ can influence the global price of crude oil far more than the United States.
OPEC countries have attempted to drive the price of crude oil down to a point that it bankrupts the U.S. fracking (shale) industry. OPEC+ countries tried and failed to do this in 2014.
There is an ongoing debate if OPEC+ is attempting to do it again.
The oil and gas industry is extremely complicated. I’m barely scratching the surface here, but Trump has overly simplified the industry and exaggerated the benefits of recorded breaking oil extraction for U.S. consumers.
The United States will likely ALWAYS import crude oil.
The oil extracted from the United States is not the same type of oil that often gets refined and turned into gasoline, diesel and jet fuel and other types of energy. Many refineries built in the United States were designed for oil extracted from other countries.
The reason for this goes back to fracking. The type of oil extracted using fracking methods in the United States is a different quality than the oil extracted using traditional drilling methods.
Most of the oil we could get out of the ground using drilling methods is long gone.
From The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM):
Many refineries need heavier crude oil to maximize flexibility of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel production. Today, most crude oil produced in the United States is light, including much of what’s produced in the Permian and Bakken. Light crudes are not good replacements for the heavy crude oil we get from Canada and Mexico.
Re-tooling refineries to process solely U.S. crude oil (light crude) would cost billions — a risky investment that would take decades to permit, construct and eventually pay off. We lack the infrastructure (like pipelines) needed to cost effectively supply U.S crude oil and refined products to every region. Even if the economics of re-tooling our facilities worked, it can take close to a decade to permit and build pipelines in the United States.
Tariffs are Paid for by U.S. importers and U.S. Companies
Trump either doesn’t understand how tariffs work or blatantly lies to the American public about his trade policies.
Tariffs placed on imports are a tax paid for by U.S. importers and U.S. companies who usually pass on their increased costs to U.S. consumers.
Even experts on Fox News have challenged the president on this. In July Charles Gasparino, a journalist who has covered Wall Street for decades and frequent Fox News contributor, challenged Brian Kilmeade about tariffs on Fox & Friends.
“Every penny we get from them is being passed to the US consumer . . .So some companies and some companies will eat it for an award for its sub so far. But remember companies don’t report to the president. They report to shareholders. And they have a fiduciary responsibility for profit margins. And at some point and and that point is coming, I mean, you can see it there are they are having price increases, uncertain goods. I mean, there’s no doubt. And, you know, this this deal has just been cut. So I would just say this is good. It’s good to have a trade deal. It’s better than. And by the way, 15% is manageable. So they’re going to blow up the global system. But, let’s be real clear here. You know tariffs cost. They’re a tax. That tax often gets passed on to consumers right. Unless they want to make it here. And that’s also a goal.”
Trump has Trashed His Own Trade Deal - USMCA
On December 3, 2025, during a press conference in the Oval Office, a reporter asked Trump about the USMCA (United States Mexico Canada Agreement) trade agreement. The journalist was off screen and not identified.
Journalist: Can you also talk about USMCA and what you’re thinking about renegotiating that with the automakers?
Trump: Well, you know, that’s just an ongoing thing. It expires in about a year, and we’ll either let it expire, will maybe work out another deal with Mexico and Canada. But, look, Mexico and Canada have taken advantage of the United States like just about every other country. You know, fairness. It’s not them. I’m not blaming them. But every country, because we had stupid people running our country.
The USMCA is set to expire in 2036. The next mandatory joint review is scheduled for July 2026 to assess the agreement and decide on renewal.
During the campaign trail Trump bragged about the USMCA as it was his signature trade deal.
On February 17, 2024 Trump said this at a rally in Waterford Township, Michigan.
“I ended the disaster known as NAFTA, the worst trade deal ever made, and replace it with a brand new Usmca. The best trade deal ever made, they say,” said Trump.
Tariff Revenue will Replace Income Taxes
Americans won’t pay income taxes due to tariff revenue
This is an absolutely absurd claim as income tax is one of the main sources of revenue for the U.S.
Tariffs - 1.4% of total revenue
Income taxes - 49.3%
Payroll taxes - 34.7%
To replace what the federal income tax currently covers, tariff revenues would need to grow to nearly half of all federal revenue, or about $2.4 trillion.
But Trump’s increased tariffs haven’t netted anything near that amount, and they aren’t projected to exceed $260 billion a year as far as the eye can see.
Some of Trump’s Most Common Lies
The U.S. has secured $18 trillion dollars in committed investments
Trump changes this number daily.
The White House website only includes $9.6 trillion.
The commitments are promises and mean very little.
The money would be used for private investment it would not go directly to the U.S. treasury.
The total GDP for the U.S. in 2024 was $29.1 trillion
Trump inherited the highest inflation in history
This lie changed last week when he said it was the highest in history when he started his second term.
Inflation was much higher in the late 1970s and early 80s than the brief spike under Joe Biden.
I created the following graph beloved based of yearly rates of inflation (CPI) from Investopedia. The website presents the data in a table if you want to see a specific year.
Gasoline Prices are under $1.99 in some states
Gasoline prices change daily but as 12/20/25 the latest rates on AAA the lowest price for gasoline is $2.33.
The only recorded prices under $2.00 were part of a promotion or membership.
The national average price for a gallon of gasoline is $2.86 last year at this same time it was $3.05.
I’ve stopped inflation or I’ve ended Inflation
The last CPI report showed 2.7% for the rate of inflation although many economists are skeptical of the rate due to a partial reporting of data from the BLS.
Regardless Trump didn’t stop or end inflation. It was 3.0% at the start of his presidency and was 3.0% in September.
I will get prescription drug prices down 200%, 300%. 400%, 500%. 600%. 700%. 800%, 900%
A price cannot go below 100%.
If a $100 drug was reduced in price by 300% the drug companies would pay people $200 to take their drugs
This is complete nonsense - Trump complained that it was not being reported by the press.
The One Big Beautiful Bill includes ‘NO TAX on Social Security’
Trump was blocked from eliminating tax on Social Security
Some seniors will benefit from a temporary $6,000 deduction for taxpayers
The biggest beneficiaries are seniors making between about $80,000 and $130,000
The new deduction is scheduled to expire in 2028.
25 million migrants entered the United States during the Biden administration
This is a completely fabricated number
During the campaign trail from 2023 - 2024 Trump started saying 15 million migrants entered the country during the Biden administration. He slowly increased that number over time to 25 million. He often says 20 million. Vice President J.D. Vance recently said 30 million.
According to the Pew Research Center the total number of undocumented immigrants reached a record 14 million in 2023. That would include undocumented immigrants who have lived in the United States for decades.
The U.S. has given $350 billion to Ukraine
Trump made this false claim often while he was running for president in 2024.
According reporting by CNN the U.S. has spent $94 billion on Ukraine since the end of June 2025 with future commitments to spend $93 billion more.
I’ve ended eight wars
This is an exaggeration Trump has repeated for months.
Egypt and Ethiopia wasn’t a war it was a dispute. The two countries had a dispute over a dam project involving the Nile River.
Serbia and Kosovo were also not at war. Trump may have prevented further conflict between the two countries.
Congo and Rwanda - this conflict is ongoing. The leaders of both countries just signed another peace deal brokered by Trump but fighting resumed within hours.
Israel and Hamas - fighting has continued on both sides of this conflict. Hamas did not disarm as promised. Israel has continued to strike sites in Gaza. Trump helped secure the return of Israeli hostages along with the release of Palestinian prisoners. Both sides have exchanged the remains of hostages and prisoners since the fragile peace deal was signed in October.
India and Pakistan - India has disputed Trump’s claims that U.S. trade incentives led to an end to a brief conflict between the two countries.
Cambodia and Thailand - another border dispute, not a war, that has not ended. Fighting resumed on December 8th. Quickly after fighting resumed Trump said he got both sides to agree to some form of ceasefire. On December 18th, just two days ago, Thailand carried out airstrikes against Cambodia.
Military recruitment increased due to his election
Recruitment was already increasing in the last year of the Biden administration due to changes to prep courses and increased bonuses for recruiters made by each branch of the military.



















